likely outcome from all of this

Economic downturn means no party at the end of the year ☹ï¸

Hopefully - irish people will come to their senses and realize that voting for SF was one big mistake....and admiration for Leo the Lion & FG will grow.

Go Leo Go

Huge crackdown on Chinese wet markets, I hope

China is coming out of lockdown now; so 2 months or so, followed by travel restrictions, possible localised lockdowns and continued high rates of testing until a vaccine becomes available

Its either a massive bounce back or the end of the capitalist system as we know it:P

Serious reply, things like the cruise industry may never recover and culturally Irelands' relationship with alcohol may be changed forever.

Eventually, people will need their hair cut and to buy clothes.

Irish_peppa wrote: »

If all our measures work what is the best case scenario for population infected? If we flatten the curve do they still think 60% will ultimately get the virus? All they are trying to do is not overwhelm the health service?

Exactly.

Same numbers will get it, but over a prolonged period of time.

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

We don’t really see winter in Ireland until Oct/Nov. We’ve had very mild October’s for the last few years.
If it returns at the end of the year it won’t have the same effect on the country, we’ll be well prepared for it and will know exactly what to do.

It's not going away, you know. It's here to stay. Coronavirus is now part of the lexicon of communicable illnesses - just like influenza. What we need now is an effective vaccine against the condition to be created to protect the elderly, in particular. Modern medical scientists ought to be capable of achieving this - quickly.

Comparing the Irish situation to China:

Wuhan has a population of 11 million, their first cases arose in January and rose exponentially till February 12th .. they have dropped like a stone ever since. So If Ireland replicates this pattern we are looking at the 2nd week of April before we rich our peak, because our first case was March 3rd. Infection rate in Wuhan is 0.007% which translates to 35,000 cases in total over the first 6 weeks with a mortality rate of less than 50.

Day per day infection rates are increasing at 25% here, which equates to 5000 cases by 29th of March and 35, 000 cases by the second week of April.

Might i remind people traditional flu kills 500,000 globally per annum and 20 million americans get the regular flu each winter.

The problem with covid 19 is its novelty factor and that creates a tsunami effect on global health. Sentiment suffers as panic ensues. Markets have been decimated and will continue to be for the next few weeks. Dare I say it we may see another bank bailout here. 150,000 casual labourers have been laid off here already this will mushroom to 300,000 in the coming weeks. This will have enormous implications for economic output. We are looking at contraction of the global economy and a recession.

We can and will bounce back from this but not before the effects manifest themselves in higher unemployment, possible IMF intervention (remember our national debt is still 250 billion and not even the interest will be serviced in the coming months) suspension of capital projects. Consumer price index will fall, sales of cars will drop. Foreign nationals will depart the country, rent prices will fall as will price of houses.

The toll from a mental health standpoint of all of this will be huge on the national psyche. But as a people we have endured far greater in our history. The great famine decimated this country, if as a national we can come back from that we can come back from this.

reg114 wrote: »

Comparing the Irish situation to China:

Wuhan has a population of 11 million, their first cases arose in January and rose exponentially till February 12th .

Everything you wrote after this is rubbish since the virus actually appeared in late November in Wuhan. Since you based all your other assumptions of this completely wrong info they are all wrong

reg114 wrote: »

Day per day infection rates are increasing at 25% here, which equates to 5000 cases by 29th of March and 35, 000 cases by the second week of April.

Lol your maths are completely off, we should actually have closer to 11-15k by end of march

reg114 wrote: »

Might i remind people traditional flu kills 500,000 globally per annum and 20 million americans get the regular flu each winter.

Ugh this rubbish again

Do the maths. 20% of those who get infected need hospitalisation. That's the biggest problem along with it having a death rate of between 10 and 20 times flu.

The two key reasons for social isolation is to reduce both of the above.
60% get it over time. Somewhere around 1 in 8/10 of the whole population end up in hospital at some stage.
We hope to be able to reduce the overall infection rate as well as stretching it out over time.

The 1919 flu caused the peak death rate in Baltimore to be 5 times that of St. Louis, because St. Louis adopted hygiene measures.

shesty wrote: »

I can't help thinking about war zones.

I mean there are people out there living with nothing for literally years, their lives in constant danger (and no nice speeches from their Taoiseach equivalent to give them a warning of what's to come).Their shops are closed, their kids can't step outdoors, many have no heat or electricity, they literally cannot see an end...ever....and here's us, freaking out because we are being asked to stay indoors for a few weeks.

Now don't get me wrong, I fully understand there will be a huge toll on many small businesses, and general mental health.But in the grand scheme of things, in literally a couple of months maybe slightly more, life will return to fairly normal for many of us.

I think we need some perspective on this.

I have social anxiety so in a way I have been on lockdown for a few years allready and well practiced in the art of social distancing.:cool:

krissovo wrote: »

The kids growing up now will get sick less in years to come now hygiene has been drummed into them. They will not forget and maintain the positive habits for their generation.

The economy will not die, it will boom. Talking to investment brokers half the country are eyeing up investments for the recovery that history shows WILL recover and are poised to invest heavily. There will be more millionaires after the crash than before.

Billions of euro's, pounds and dollars are being pumped or will be pumped to generate jobs, healthcare market will finally benefit and people will re-train. Ireland will increase its pharma capability as companies will reduce the risk exposure of China.

I agree with and funnily so does my mother who is a very good age she remembers world war2 and every recession and disaster to hit since.
Her simple answer is it will bounce back
I asked her why ,she said because it always does people forget and more on
This will never change with people