likely outcome from all of this

2lazytogetup

ive seen alot of news about what is happening now, but everyone afraid to predict the future on this.

two ways i can see this going, one we all stay inside for 1 year and society breaks down completely. but lives are saved. in ireland a million jobs lost, hyperinflation. irreperable damage.

alternatively, give it 2 months, economy and society on the brink, but after 2 months enough new respirators and face masks that society comes back out of the darkness, many more people will die but will be seen as a necessary casulty.

what do you think?

TheW1zard

You should have put this thread in the make believe creative writing section

CtevenSrowder

2lazytogetup wrote: »

ive seen alot of news about what is happening now, but everyone afraid to predict the future on this.

two ways i can see this going, one we all stay inside for 1 year and society breaks down completely. but lives are saved. in ireland a million jobs lost, hyperinflation. irreperable damage.

alternatively, give it 2 months, economy and society on the brink, but after 2 months enough new respirators and face masks that society comes back out of the darkness, many more people will die but will be seen as a necessary casulty.

what do you think?

Plenty of lives will be lost if society "breaks down completely".

Fr_Dougal

Staggered isolation, treat cases as they occur. We’ll probably hit peak cases mid April to early May. End of July cases will be on the decline. August/September we’ll start to get back to normal. Hospitality sectors and retail will slowly bounce back. One hell of a party at the end of the year.

dubrov

Economic downturn means no party at the end of the year ☹ï¸

TheBoyConor

What will be the effect on Irish property prices?

2lazytogetup

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Staggered isolation, treat cases as they occur. We’ll probably hit peak cases mid April to early May. End of July cases will be on the decline. August/September we’ll start to get back to normal. Hospitality sectors and retail will slowly bounce back. One hell of a party at the end of the year.

i like the positivity. but what makes you think july case will decline?? will everyone have contracted it by that time? not being smart, just wondering.

Fr_Dougal

2lazytogetup wrote: »

i like the positivity. but what makes you think july case will decline?? will everyone have contracted it by that time? not being smart, just wondering.

We have taken precautions relatively early on, closed schools, and now bars and non-essential retail has closed and people are taking it seriously.

I believe we have learned from Italy’s mistakes. I’d imagine by this time next week Italy will have passed its peak for new cases, or will be at least starting to level off. They had their first case on February 23rd.

fryup

Hopefully - irish people will come to their senses and realize that voting for SF was one big mistake....and admiration for Leo the Lion & FG will grow.

Go Leo Go

splinter65

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Staggered isolation, treat cases as they occur. We’ll probably hit peak cases mid April to early May. End of July cases will be on the decline. August/September we’ll start to get back to normal. Hospitality sectors and retail will slowly bounce back. One hell of a party at the end of the year.

Mr Whitty says 100% it will hit back again next winter.

biko

Huge crackdown on Chinese wet markets, I hope

Fr_Dougal

splinter65 wrote: »

Mr Whitty says 100% it will hit back again next winter.

We don’t really see winter in Ireland until Oct/Nov. We’ve had very mild October’s for the last few years.
If it returns at the end of the year it won’t have the same effect on the country, we’ll be well prepared for it and will know exactly what to do.

loyatemu

China is coming out of lockdown now; so 2 months or so, followed by travel restrictions, possible localised lockdowns and continued high rates of testing until a vaccine becomes available

yosser hughes

China sanctioned maybe? Required to pay reparations otherwise trade sanctions. They have the money.

Its either a massive bounce back or the end of the capitalist system as we know it:P

Serious reply, things like the cruise industry may never recover and culturally Irelands' relationship with alcohol may be changed forever.

Eventually, people will need their hair cut and to buy clothes.

Irish_peppa

If all our measures work what is the best case scenario for population infected? If we flatten the curve do they still think 60% will ultimately get the virus? All they are trying to do is not overwhelm the health service?

Fr_Dougal

Irish_peppa wrote: »

If all our measures work what is the best case scenario for population infected? If we flatten the curve do they still think 60% will ultimately get the virus? All they are trying to do is not overwhelm the health service?

Exactly.

Same numbers will get it, but over a prolonged period of time.

Irish_peppa

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Exactly.

Same numbers will get it, but over a prolonged period of time.

have the numbers been modeled? Have the HSE said how many they expect to come down with the virus? I dont see it anywhere on google

chicorytip

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

We don’t really see winter in Ireland until Oct/Nov. We’ve had very mild October’s for the last few years.
If it returns at the end of the year it won’t have the same effect on the country, we’ll be well prepared for it and will know exactly what to do.

It's not going away, you know. It's here to stay. Coronavirus is now part of the lexicon of communicable illnesses - just like influenza. What we need now is an effective vaccine against the condition to be created to protect the elderly, in particular. Modern medical scientists ought to be capable of achieving this - quickly.

archer22

The virus will get bored and move on after a few months leaving behind a population gone bat**** (no pun intended) crazy with cabin fever and food poisoning from trying to eat all the out of date hoarded food in their fridges and freezers.

DeVore

The models hugely depend on the cooperation of the public to observe isolation/quartine/social distancing.

The R0 (the number of people one single case infects) drops from 2.2 to about 0.4 when strong measures are applied. So, predicting whats coming hugely depends on that.

I can make predictions but basically I would just be putting fancy numbers around my own guesses for the level of isolation/quartine/social distancing people are observing.

This much is true, if we do a good job on those things, the numbers are going to be considerably lower than if we do a bad job.

yosser hughes

mariaalice wrote: »

Its either a massive bounce back or the end of the capitalist system as we know it:P

Serious reply, things like the cruise industry may never recover and culturally Irelands' relationship with alcohol may be changed forever.

Eventually, people will need their hair cut and to buy clothes.

You can cut your own hair and make your own clothes maria.:) People might become more self-reliant.
The fashion industry is one of the biggest offenders when it comes to climate change, exploitation and generally needless consumption. It's an industry with great PR though.

reg114

Comparing the Irish situation to China:

Wuhan has a population of 11 million, their first cases arose in January and rose exponentially till February 12th .. they have dropped like a stone ever since. So If Ireland replicates this pattern we are looking at the 2nd week of April before we rich our peak, because our first case was March 3rd. Infection rate in Wuhan is 0.007% which translates to 35,000 cases in total over the first 6 weeks with a mortality rate of less than 50.

Day per day infection rates are increasing at 25% here, which equates to 5000 cases by 29th of March and 35, 000 cases by the second week of April.

Might i remind people traditional flu kills 500,000 globally per annum and 20 million americans get the regular flu each winter.

The problem with covid 19 is its novelty factor and that creates a tsunami effect on global health. Sentiment suffers as panic ensues. Markets have been decimated and will continue to be for the next few weeks. Dare I say it we may see another bank bailout here. 150,000 casual labourers have been laid off here already this will mushroom to 300,000 in the coming weeks. This will have enormous implications for economic output. We are looking at contraction of the global economy and a recession.

We can and will bounce back from this but not before the effects manifest themselves in higher unemployment, possible IMF intervention (remember our national debt is still 250 billion and not even the interest will be serviced in the coming months) suspension of capital projects. Consumer price index will fall, sales of cars will drop. Foreign nationals will depart the country, rent prices will fall as will price of houses.

The toll from a mental health standpoint of all of this will be huge on the national psyche. But as a people we have endured far greater in our history. The great famine decimated this country, if as a national we can come back from that we can come back from this.

douglashyde

2lazytogetup wrote: »

ive seen alot of news about what is happening now, but everyone afraid to predict the future on this.

two ways i can see this going, one we all stay inside for 1 year and society breaks down completely. but lives are saved. in ireland a million jobs lost, hyperinflation. irreperable damage.

alternatively, give it 2 months, economy and society on the brink, but after 2 months enough new respirators and face masks that society comes back out of the darkness, many more people will die but will be seen as a necessary casulty.

what do you think?

no one is spending, so you have deflation not inflation.

In Ireland my guess is 2-3 months of 'this' - large sectors getting government bail outs and nationalisation. High unemployment for a few years, particularly in the US.

We'll sort out the health crisis by end of the year with effective treatment and isolating cases, vaccine in about 18-24 mths.

VinLieger

reg114 wrote: »

Comparing the Irish situation to China:

Wuhan has a population of 11 million, their first cases arose in January and rose exponentially till February 12th .

Everything you wrote after this is rubbish since the virus actually appeared in late November in Wuhan. Since you based all your other assumptions of this completely wrong info they are all wrong

reg114 wrote: »

Day per day infection rates are increasing at 25% here, which equates to 5000 cases by 29th of March and 35, 000 cases by the second week of April.

Lol your maths are completely off, we should actually have closer to 11-15k by end of march

reg114 wrote: »

Might i remind people traditional flu kills 500,000 globally per annum and 20 million americans get the regular flu each winter.

Ugh this rubbish again

shesty

I can't help thinking about war zones.

I mean there are people out there living with nothing for literally years, their lives in constant danger (and no nice speeches from their Taoiseach equivalent to give them a warning of what's to come).Their shops are closed, their kids can't step outdoors, many have no heat or electricity, they literally cannot see an end...ever....and here's us, freaking out because we are being asked to stay indoors for a few weeks.

Now don't get me wrong, I fully understand there will be a huge toll on many small businesses, and general mental health.But in the grand scheme of things, in literally a couple of months maybe slightly more, life will return to fairly normal for many of us.

I think we need some perspective on this.

Water John

Do the maths. 20% of those who get infected need hospitalisation. That's the biggest problem along with it having a death rate of between 10 and 20 times flu.

The two key reasons for social isolation is to reduce both of the above.
60% get it over time. Somewhere around 1 in 8/10 of the whole population end up in hospital at some stage.
We hope to be able to reduce the overall infection rate as well as stretching it out over time.

The 1919 flu caused the peak death rate in Baltimore to be 5 times that of St. Louis, because St. Louis adopted hygiene measures.

BarryD2

yosser hughes wrote: »

China sanctioned maybe? Required to pay reparations otherwise trade sanctions. They have the money.

Good luck with that - who'd collect the reparations?

reg114 wrote: »

The toll from a mental health standpoint of all of this will be huge on the national psyche. But as a people we have endured far greater in our history. The great famine decimated this country, if as a national we can come back from that we can come back from this.

Surely exaggerating a bit there. People will adjust. As for the great famine, you couldn't possibly compare the potential loss of life and that in itself took many decades and a few generations to shake off. However some people did well out of the famine, got larger land holdings etc. I'm sure there'll be winners & losers in the current scenario as well.

Irish_peppa

shesty wrote: »

I can't help thinking about war zones.

I mean there are people out there living with nothing for literally years, their lives in constant danger (and no nice speeches from their Taoiseach equivalent to give them a warning of what's to come).Their shops are closed, their kids can't step outdoors, many have no heat or electricity, they literally cannot see an end...ever....and here's us, freaking out because we are being asked to stay indoors for a few weeks.

Now don't get me wrong, I fully understand there will be a huge toll on many small businesses, and general mental health.But in the grand scheme of things, in literally a couple of months maybe slightly more, life will return to fairly normal for many of us.

I think we need some perspective on this.

I have social anxiety so in a way I have been on lockdown for a few years allready and well practiced in the art of social distancing.:cool:

krissovo

The kids growing up now will get sick less in years to come now hygiene has been drummed into them. They will not forget and maintain the positive habits for their generation.

The economy will not die, it will boom. Talking to investment brokers half the country are eyeing up investments for the recovery that history shows WILL recover and are poised to invest heavily. There will be more millionaires after the crash than before.

Billions of euro's, pounds and dollars are being pumped or will be pumped to generate jobs, healthcare market will finally benefit and people will re-train. Ireland will increase its pharma capability as companies will reduce the risk exposure of China.

ZX7R

krissovo wrote: »

The kids growing up now will get sick less in years to come now hygiene has been drummed into them. They will not forget and maintain the positive habits for their generation.

The economy will not die, it will boom. Talking to investment brokers half the country are eyeing up investments for the recovery that history shows WILL recover and are poised to invest heavily. There will be more millionaires after the crash than before.

Billions of euro's, pounds and dollars are being pumped or will be pumped to generate jobs, healthcare market will finally benefit and people will re-train. Ireland will increase its pharma capability as companies will reduce the risk exposure of China.

I agree with and funnily so does my mother who is a very good age she remembers world war2 and every recession and disaster to hit since.
Her simple answer is it will bounce back
I asked her why ,she said because it always does people forget and more on
This will never change with people

signostic

An immediate outcome in Wuhan is cleaner air..

dhaughton99

I was passing the new Hubspot building on the docks earlier and I was thinking what is going to happen. Workers haven't even moved in yet. 1400 jobs. Stock down 20% today.

all about the mane

Hoping money will move out of the military and into healthcare as a result of this.

shesty

signostic wrote: »

An immediate outcome in Wuhan is cleaner air..

Wow.

Harry Palmr

The skies will be clearer as flights fall to very few. The waterways of Venice are much cleaner, it's a city thats struggled will sheer numbers in recent years and this may present an opportunity to reassess thier tourist economy.

jamesf85

Water John wrote: »

Do the maths. 20% of those who get infected need hospitalisation. That's the biggest problem along with it having a death rate of between 10 and 20 times flu.

The two key reasons for social isolation is to reduce both of the above.
60% get it over time. Somewhere around 1 in 8/10 of the whole population end up in hospital at some stage.
We hope to be able to reduce the overall infection rate as well as stretching it out over time.

The 1919 flu caused the peak death rate in Baltimore to be 5 times that of St. Louis, because St. Louis adopted hygiene measures.

It's not 20%. We need to forget about that because we don't know most of the people who actually have it.

I have a mate that in the past few days has come down with flu like symptoms. High fever and a cough. He was away in France on business last week. He's feeling fine now but is isolating for 2 weeks. He never got tested because he's 99% sure he got it.

The key here is to practice good hygene, keep your distance and if you're not feeling well completely isolate yourself.

We need to stop with these percentages, they're impossible to know because we can't possibly test everyone who has it and we're only really testing those with the worst symptoms.

Harry Palmr

Will we discover that we don't need to buy stuff that we never really needed or indeed wanted but bought to make ourselves feel better for a fleeting moment?

alphasully

all about the mane wrote: »

Hoping money will move out of the military and into healthcare as a result of this.

If they disbanded the military and poured every euro thats spent on it into the HSE, it still wouldnt fix the problems with the HSE. Getting rid of the military would be very shortsighted in my opinion

reg114

reg114 wrote: »

ight i remind people traditional flu kills 500,000 globally per annum and 20 million americans get the regular flu each winter.

the mortality rate is 30 times that of the flu

and a lot more people are set to get this compared to the flu it as it is novel and there is no immunity.

bringing the flu into the conversation is just stupid and makes people sound like Trump and Fox news late February 2020 edition

wyndham

jamesf85 wrote: »

It's not 20%. We need to forget about that because we don't know most of the people who actually have it.

I have a mate that in the past few days has come down with flu like symptoms. High fever and a cough. He was away in France on business last week. He's feeling fine now but is isolating for 2 weeks. He never got tested because he's 99% sure he got it.

The key here is to practice good hygene, keep your distance and if you're not feeling well completely isolate yourself.

We need to stop with these percentages, they're impossible to know because we can't possibly test everyone who has it and we're only really testing those with the worst symptoms.

He needs to get tested as soon as possible. If he does have it, he could deteriorate rapidly even after he starts to feel well again. Isolation time should be up to 40 days for those recovered. He needs to link in to the system so he can be monitored and avail of assistance rapidly if required.