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CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

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Comments

  • #8372
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,756 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Panrich wrote: »
    I do know that and how exponential growth works in general but why are we going to have the highest exponential growth rate of any western country? If we hit 15k two days faster than Italy then that will confirm it.




    Which is why we need people to stop going to parties, playgrounds and such.
    Last weekend pubs were packed.


  • #8373
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    spookwoman wrote: »
    Tesco shelves still empty for the oap shop even got in at 7am before anyone else

    It might be an idea if you could specify which of the 152 Tesco stores in Ireland you are talking about.

    Otherwise your post is meaningless and sounds like a call to encourage panic in all the other 150 stores.


  • #8374
    kingshankly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,522 ✭✭✭kingshankly


    dummy_crusher wrote: »
    I'll take it as a definite when there's something official, thanks.

    Fair enough but we have been given new rosters today that’s all I can say but can definitely tell you trains are getting cut most of them will be during the day still will be plenty in the morning and evening but won’t run as late


  • #8375
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    Hector Savage wrote: »
    How accurate is this ?
    Have you got a source ?

    Its a legitimate case study by London Imperial College based of Italy numbers. Neil Ferguson predicted this from January. So likely to be very accurate.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


  • #8376
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    babybuilder wrote: »
    The detection rate as of yesterday was one positive for every 22 tests. In order to detect 15000 positive s by the end of the month they will need a minimum of 330,000 test kits.
    Waiting For 30000 for Thursday.

    Yup. Thought the same meself. If I am not careful now I will start to skate close to flirting with a conspiracy camp. There are things that do not add up.


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  • #8377
    Doctors room ghost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,860 ✭✭✭Doctors room ghost


    I heard from my grannys neighbors cat that the army have been deployed,and were instructed by varadkar to shoot on sight anyone seen trying to go into a shop.
    Supposed to be enforced from 11am.
    I’m not chancing it lads.that cats got its paw on the pulse.


  • #8378
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,285 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Wish people would stop spreading rumours

    It's not helping at all


  • #8379
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 13,839 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    I'm a bit confused by all of the shopping things. We need to do a shop. Can I go to a supermarket this morning or is it only for older people at certain times. Main supermarkets I'd usually go to are Aldi and Tesco. Any help appreciated.

    Go anytime after 10am and you’re ok. Some shops are for oap’s and carers up till 9am so you’re definitely fine at10.


  • #8380
    beggars_bush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,285 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Gynoid wrote: »
    Yup. Thought the same meself. If I am not careful now I will start to skate close to flirting with a conspiracy camp. There are things that do not add up.

    It's called worst case planning


  • #8381
    OneEightSeven
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,513 ✭✭✭OneEightSeven
    MEGA - Make Éire Great Again


    The UK's CFR is nearing the Global average.

    Country | Median Age |No. Cases |No. Deaths | Case Fatality Rate
    World | 30.4 | 199309 | 7994 | 4.01%
    China |37.4| 80894 | 3237 | 4.00%
    Italy |45.5 | 31506 | 2503 | 7.94%
    Iran |30.3 | 16169 | 988 | 6.11%
    Spain |42.7 | 11826 | 533 | 4.50%
    Germany | 47.1 | 9367 | 26 | 0.27%
    South Korea | 41.8 | 8413 | 84 | 0.99%
    France |41.4| 7730 | 175 | 2.26%
    USA| 38.1 | 6524 | 116 | 1.77%
    Switzerland | 42.4 | 2742 | 27 | 0.98%
    UK | 40.5 | 1950 | 71 | 3.64%
    Netherlands | 42.6 | 1705 | 43 | 2.52%
    Norway | 39.2 | 1476 | 4 | 0.27%
    Austria | 44.0 | 1471 | 4 | 0.27%
    Belgium | 41.4 | 1243 | 10 | 0.80%
    Sweden | 41.2 | 1196 | 8 | 0.66%
    Denmark | 42.2 | 1044 | 4 | 0.38%
    Ireland | 36.8 | 292 | 2 | 0.68%


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  • #8382
    farmchoice
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,026 ✭✭✭farmchoice


    perhaps that has been dealt with already but i have a question around the stats.
    yesterday they released a figure stating that they had conducted 6600 tests so far. of those as we know just under 300 were positive.
    so 94% of those tested came back negative, and they were targeted tests of people they suspected may well have the virus.


    they are saying we can expect 15,000 cases by the end of the month. now at the current rate of positive results that would require us carrying out 250,000 tests in the next 14 days.
    now seeing as how we are now greatly expanding the criteria to get a test logic would seem to imply that that 6% success rate would actually fall a good bit lower. then again it would be off set by their being more infected people.


    even if it doubled to 12% success rate ( i dont believe anywhere in the world has come close to that) would still need to carrying out 125,000.
    now the govt announced last night they would be taking delivery of 30,000 this this week and the same again next week.
    so i just cant see how they will possibly reach that figure even it reflected the number of people infected.


  • #8383
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    Varadkar’s speech reminded me of Reagan’s classic Challenger State Of The Union address:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qa7icmqgsow


  • #8384
    Christy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,111 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Gynoid wrote: »
    Yup. Thought the same meself. If I am not careful now I will start to skate close to flirting with a conspiracy camp. There are things that do not add up.

    15,000 is a worst case scenario. I.e. If infection rates actually go way up which would mean that we get a higher % of positive tests.

    No need to go to conspiracy stuff.


  • #8385
    Duke of Url
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,661 ✭✭✭Duke of Url




  • #8386
    dummy_crusher
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 114 ✭✭dummy_crusher


    Doctors room ghost wrote: »
    It’s probably about as accurate as the 11am shutdown messages for Tuesday morning people were sending all weekend.educated,grown adults.imagine that.they seem to have disappeared into thin air since the same wafflers.
    Pay the drama queens no heed and carry on as normal as possible.

    You should probably read the report...


  • #8387
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    kingshankly wrote: »
    Changes coming in on Monday

    Still don't know what I was waitin' for
    And my time was runnin' wild
    A million dead end streets and
    Every time I thought I'd got it made
    It seemed the taste was not so sweet
    So I turned myself to face me
    But I've never caught a glimpse
    How the others must see the faker
    I'm much too fast to take that test


  • #8388
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    Christy42 wrote: »
    15,000 is a worst case scenario. I.e. If infection rates actually go way up which would mean that we get a higher % of positive tests.

    No need to go to conspiracy stuff.

    Just saying, Christy, is all. Don't worry, I have a fairly tight hould of the reins :D


  • #8389
    facehugger99
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 8,378 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    spookwoman wrote: »
    Tesco shelves still empty for the oap shop even got in at 7am before anyone else

    Username checks out.


  • #8390
    pH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,188 ✭✭✭pH


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Its a legitimate case study by London Imperial College based of Italy numbers. Neil Ferguson predicted this from January. So likely to be very accurate.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    Yea, but what does he know ;)
    https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1240171876695117824


  • #8391
    Syncpolice
    Closed Accounts Posts: 245 ✭✭Syncpolice


    Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »
    Go anytime after 10am and you’re ok. Some shops are for oap’s and carers up till 9am so you’re definitely fine at10.

    Aldi is after 11 except oaps


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  • #8392
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    farmchoice wrote: »
    perhaps that has been dealt with already but i have a question around the stats.
    yesterday they released a figure stating that they had conducted 6600 tests so far. of those as we know just under 300 were positive.
    so 94% of those tested came back negative, and they were targeted tests of people they suspected may well have the virus.


    they are saying we can expect 15,000 cases by the end of the month. now at the current rate of positive results that would require us carrying out 250,000 tests in the next 14 days.
    now seeing as how we are now greatly expanding the criteria to get a test logic would seem to imply that that 6% success rate would actually fall a good bit lower. then again it would be off set by their being more infected people.


    even if it doubled to 12% success rate ( i dont believe anywhere in the world has come close to that) would still need to carrying out 125,000.
    now the govt announced last night they would be taking delivery of 30,000 this this week and the same again next week.
    so i just cant see how they will possibly reach that figure even it reflected the number of people infected.

    Obviously, they are expecting the rate of infection to rapidly increase
    So extrapolating from current percentages is not what you do
    They are using mathematical models for this based on what's happening in other countries like Italy and now Spain plus recognised information on how normal viruses spread
    Italy hasn't reached the top of its curve yet and what's happening there is pretty vile as you know


  • #8393
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,670 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    Still don't know what I was waitin' for
    And my time was runnin' wild
    A million dead end streets and
    Every time I thought I'd got it made
    It seemed the taste was not so sweet
    So I turned myself to face me
    But I've never caught a glimpse
    How the others must see the faker
    I'm much too fast to take that test

    It’s a god awful small affair..


  • #8394
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Cameron326 wrote: »
    Anyone got Tesco delivery recently? Anyone know whether Tesco has changed their home delivery process? IE, does the delivery man still come into your house with the crates, or are they now just leaving cardboard boxes outside your door and self signing to avoid close contact? I know that AnPost no longer require a signature for most deliveries.

    Just got mine, crates dropped at door, driver wearing disposable gloves, brought the crates in, unpacked and returned them.

    For those wondering about stock, they substituted a bottle of green craft paint for blue. Everything else (lots of stuff) was there.


  • #8395
    from_atozinc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,784 ✭✭✭from_atozinc


    was just thinking there
    4 of us in house here, parents in 40's. children under 6.
    All healthy , no symptoms etc
    staying in house and all this.
    no social interaction etc

    do we need to be OTT with our hand washing and hygiene or just do what we normally did before all this


  • #8396
    Sardonicat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,458 ✭✭✭✭Sardonicat


    On hold 12 mins on the HSE helpline. Home help arrived in to my Dad this morning and informed me they will not be issued with any ppe beyond the gloves they always have. No masks, no sanitising hand gel, no disposable apron. The nature of their work means they cannot maintain physical distance and they are going from house to house all day. I am absolutely raging that they, their clients and any vulnerable people in their families are being put are risk in this way. 16 mins on hold now...


  • #8397
    Fiery mutant
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,547 ✭✭✭Fiery mutant


    micks_address wrote: »
    What industry do you work in?

    I work in non food retail, I've been wearing mask and gloves the last few days, the volumes coming into the shop have been crazy.

    We should defend our way of life to an extent that any attempt on it is crushed, so that any adversary will never make such an attempt in the future.



  • #8398
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,670 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    from_atozinc wrote: »
    was just thinking there
    4 of us in house here, parents in 40's. children under 6.
    All healthy , no symptoms etc
    staying in house and all this.
    no social interaction etc

    do we need to be OTT with our hand washing and hygiene or just do what we normally did before all this

    Surely only if you are out and about.


  • #8399
    from_atozinc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,784 ✭✭✭from_atozinc


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    Surely only if you are out and about.

    from time to time yeah, but not for last couple of days, im on about the days we dont leave the house at all


  • #8400
    Hamsterchops
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,002 ✭✭✭Hamsterchops


    facehugger99 wrote: »
    Back to normal in our office today numbers-wise, sensible precautions being adopted but it appears the apocalyptic 'end of days' scenarios have been greatly exaggerated.

    Sorry, but this post is haunting me, so you've all gone back to work in the office as per normal, and that the whole thing is an exaggerated dream?

    Please clarify, in case I've got the wrong end of the stick.


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  • #8401
    cj maxx
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,141 ✭✭✭✭cj maxx


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    Still don't know what I was waitin' for
    And my time was runnin' wild
    A million dead end streets and
    Every time I thought I'd got it made
    It seemed the taste was not so sweet
    So I turned myself to face me
    But I've never caught a glimpse
    How the others must see the faker
    I'm much too fast to take that test
    Don't worry, everything will be hunky dory


This discussion has been closed.
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