CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) Read OP

sonofenoch · 17-03-2020 03:58PM

theballz wrote: »

I hope to christ when all this is done they close them horrible markets in china.

Watching a video on those market business's, many are not legal and run by the mob and crime lords...........but like tackling the drug war, end it now is easier said than done

threeball · 17-03-2020 03:58PM

pH wrote: »

These arguments are pointless - at the heart of it it comes down to a very simple model.

For a population with age and health demographics like Ireland the rough expected figures are

1% death rate (unavoidable)
4% requiring intensive care (can be saved, but will die if no ICU available)

We have around 250 ICU beds, let's say we can double this to 500 and not use them for any other reason except for covid-19 patients, and each patient needs the bed for 10 days then we can treat 50 new severe covid-19 patients per day.

For every 1,000 patients that catch are infected - 50(5%) will need the ICU care outlined above.

Any day that more than 1,000 people become infected will generate more cases than the health service could cope with (based on 500 icu beds)

The population of Ireland is 4.9 million, 70% needed for herd immunity is 3,400,000. If we restrict the spread to 1,000 case per day this takes 3,400 days (about 9 years). That's 9 years of schools closed and social distancing! This is clearly impossible.

You're assuming everyone shows up for treatment. 80% or more will not. It hits them and is gone before they know it so any talk of 9yrs is absolute tosh. Look at the Diamond princess. An absolute petri dish and yet those were the infection rates in predominantly old people.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-03-2020 03:59PM

woah huge increase in deaths in Spain

169 so far today.

is_that_so · 17-03-2020 03:59PM

From today's RTE feed. I'm guessing it includes Croker!

The Minister said that 19 out of 30 new test centres have now opened throughout the country.

all about the mane · 17-03-2020 04:00PM

ITman88 wrote: »

Fair enough

My fault. Wasn’t clear in my previous post

Humberto Salazar · 17-03-2020 04:00PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

China:

20 out of 21 new cases reported today are travelers from abroad [source]

Another reason to restrict travel

Find it hard to trust those numbers. But without proof, they are accepted.

Harry Palmr · 17-03-2020 04:00PM

splinter65 wrote: »

Mr Vallance answering questions right now on the BBC. Riveting stuff.

He believes it will be a re-occurring virus now it's established, though the view in China and Sth Korea is otherwise - Vallance said he hopes they are right and he is wrong but doesn't think so due to the properties of Covid 19 as compared to Sars which burned itself out.

Also the British Medical Journal says do not use ibuprofen type anti-inflammatories https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1086 the HSE has not updated it's view that there is no reason to stop taking same (unless directed to do so by a doctor)

Though just to muddy things a bit more -

The complex role that the immune system might play in covid-19 disease has been underscored by reports that Swiss drug company Roche has secured approval from China for its anti-inflammation drug Actemra (tocilizumab) to treat patients developing severe complications from covid-19.

Some doctors in Italy, including Paolo Ascierto of the Pascale Hospital in Naples, claim that they have had success treating severely ill patients with the drug, which blocks the key inflammatory molecule interleukin-6.

There is speculation that the drug might prevent fatal “cytokine storms,” in which the immune system of seriously ill patients can cause organ failure.

Vallance view was that it would be best to treat with paracetamol until more is known.

JanuarySnowstor · 17-03-2020 04:01PM

Leo Varadkar should close the border because of such large differences between the UK and Ireland. If Arlene wants to make her own decisions leave her off but keep them out!

is_that_so · 17-03-2020 04:01PM

More vaccine "developments"
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0317/1123658-coronavirus-covid19-vaccine/

Cartel Mike · 17-03-2020 04:01PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

This won't go away until there is a vaccine will it?

Does this mean we live like monks for the next year ?

Ideally , no-one in the healthcare ,law enforcement , emergency services , supermarkets or banks (so they can psotpone mortage payments!) will get it.

Everyone else under 7O will get it now during march lock down so there is an immunity built up and from april onward the elederly can't be infected by the under 70's.

The self isolating over 70's dont get it at all.

I think that's the ideal scenario but unforfunatley ..impossible to engineer!

screamer · 17-03-2020 04:01PM

Talking to my father earlier he is not Irish and said that when he was young there was an outbreak of polio. They didn’t have enough vaccines to treat all the children, so they extracted serum from blood of people who had recovered from polio and gave that to the kids and it gave the 3 to 6 months immunity to buy time till they got a vaccine. I’m sure this is not something radical. My dad reckons with the blood services here, it could easily be done. I guess there’s still a risk in it, but I wonder if something like that might be a runner to buy time.

Hobgoblin11 · 17-03-2020 04:02PM

For all the people out there who have never experienced hard times, this is not a war, it’s a health crisis , but it’s controllable, it’s not ww3.....yet !

all about the mane · 17-03-2020 04:02PM

Easton Stale Sack wrote: »

300 ventilators secured on top of our 500 already and expect to secure 100 every week from here on in. Relief to hear that now from the CMO press conference.

That is brilliant news. Fair play

expectationlost · 17-03-2020 04:02PM

still wants more detailed stats not just who has but how the hospitals are coping

wadacrack · 17-03-2020 04:03PM

My Daily routine:

7 am Wake UP
Breakfast.

9-1 pm Check Coronavirus updates

1-2:30 PM Exercise

3:00 PM Lunch

3-5 PM; Coronavirus research

5PM: Italy updates

7PM : USA / Trump speech

8:45 PM Irish updates

10:30 PM Look at the World wide numbers

11PM Sleep

ITman88 · 17-03-2020 04:03PM

pH wrote: »

These arguments are pointless - at the heart of it it comes down to a very simple model.

For a population with age and health demographics like Ireland the rough expected figures are

1% death rate (unavoidable)
4% requiring intensive care (can be saved, but will die if no ICU available)

We have around 250 ICU beds, let's say we can double this to 500 and not use them for any other reason except for covid-19 patients, and each patient needs the bed for 10 days then we can treat 50 new severe covid-19 patients per day.

For every 1,000 patients that catch are infected - 50(5%) will need the ICU care outlined above.

Any day that more than 1,000 people become infected will generate more cases than the health service could cope with (based on 500 icu beds)

The population of Ireland is 4.9 million, 70% needed for herd immunity is 3,400,000. If we restrict the spread to 1,000 case per day this takes 3,400 days (about 9 years). That's 9 years of schools closed and social distancing! This is clearly impossible.

Exactly. It’s doesn’t seem a realistic approach long term

Rob A. Bank · 17-03-2020 04:03PM

Easton Stale Sack wrote: »

300 ventilators secured on top of our 500 already and expect to secure 100 every week from here on in. Relief to hear that now from the CMO press conference.

The number of ventilators is important but you can’t just plug someone in and leave them alone. For starters the patient must be sedated and anesthetized.

Looking after an unconscious patient on a ventilator needs a 24/7 highly specialized team of doctors, nurses, ancillary staff etc. and they are in short supply.

If the patient is highly infectious, the task is even more difficult and potentially life threatening for the staff.

It is impossible to get untrained staff to run ventilators. It would be like asking a person who has just passed their driving test to compete in a Formula 1 race !

all about the mane · 17-03-2020 04:03PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

For all the people out there who have never experienced hard times, this is not a war, it’s a health crisis , but it’s controllable, it’s not ww3.....yet !

This is the modern equivalent of a war. Have no doubt

flashforward · 17-03-2020 04:03PM

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Find it hard to trust those numbers. But without proof, they are accepted.

How are those numbers even possible? China have stopped this dead right at its peak, no flattening of a curve, they just turned it into a cliff edge. Doesn't add up at all

Gooey Looey · 17-03-2020 04:03PM

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Leo Varadkar should close the border because of such large differences between the UK and Ireland. If Arlene wants to make her own decisions leave her off but keep them out!

How? There are over 300 crossings. We need the gardai and forces for other duties

expectationlost · 17-03-2020 04:04PM

Kopparberg Strawberry and Lime wrote: »

Just went into Londis on parkgate street

Get a roll made, picked up a drink and a snack

Guy on the till wouldn't pick up any product to scan it and made me clear up the barcodes so he could scan from a distance. Also made it a point I pay with card.

Bit OTT and arrogant if you ask me.

Arrogant because of the way he went about it "stretch out the barcode for me, I like my health I'm sure you do too" being a condescending prick

who touched those products before you picked them up...

ChikiChiki · 17-03-2020 04:04PM

is_that_so wrote: »

From today's RTE feed. I'm guessing it includes Croker!

Ran by croker earlier. There were emergency services outside it and the gates were open. Definitely activity happening.

kowloon · 17-03-2020 04:04PM

pH wrote: »

The population of Ireland is 4.9 million, 70% needed for herd immunity is 3,400,000. If we restrict the spread to 1,000 case per day this takes 3,400 days (about 9 years). That's 9 years of schools closed and social distancing! This is clearly impossible.

It only needs to be maintained until a vaccination programme is on the go.

somofagun · 17-03-2020 04:04PM

Catholic schools are closing and are asking the church to pay the teachers until the government gets its finger out and formally closes them. The brits will have alot to answer for when this is over.

Gynoid · 17-03-2020 04:04PM

Have to say with swift procurement of more ventilators and opening of test centres I think our response is very, very good. Very impressed.

Still think all but absolutely essential work places should close for 2 to 4 weeks, single payment to all thus unemployed, stay inside as much as possible for as many as possible, until all preparations are on place. Minister if you are listening just call it.

briany · 17-03-2020 04:04PM

Looking at the numbers, RoI currently stands at 223 confirmed cases at around 2 1/2 weeks since the virus officially made landfall. At the same number of days into the Italian outbreak, they hadn't confirmed much more than 20. This begs the question as to whether we're on a worse trajectory than Italy or if Ireland has been more proactive on the testing?

cnocbui · 17-03-2020 04:05PM

New York alone now has 1,300 cases with 19% hospitalised: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/new-york-state-coronavirus-cases-soar-to-more-than-1300-hospitalizing-19percent.html

otnomart · 17-03-2020 04:06PM

Discodog wrote: »

That's what the Guardian article suggests. Run a temperature but monitor it & use Paracetamol if necessary. The Guardian is hardly a red top rag.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/health-experts-criticise-nhs-advice-to-take-ibuprofen-for-covid-19

In the British Medical Journal today:
Covid-19: ibuprofen should not be used for managing symptoms, say doctors and scientists

https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1086?

cosanostra · 17-03-2020 04:06PM

flashforward wrote: »

How are those numbers even possible? China have stopped this dead right at its peak, no flattening of a curve, they just turned it into a cliff edge. Doesn't add up at all

You're forgetting that China is an authoritarian state they can shut things down like nobody else so it's quite possible they would manage to stop it in its tracks

pH · 17-03-2020 04:07PM

threeball wrote: »

You're assuming everyone shows up for treatment. 80% or more will not. It hits them and is gone before they know it so any talk of 9yrs is absolute tosh. Look at the Diamond princess. An absolute petri dish and yet those were the infection rates in predominantly old people.

No I'm assuming that just 5% show up for treatment, there is indeed another 20% of cases that will need some form of hospital care (but not to the level of ICU) which I HAVEN'T EVEN COUNTED.

Once more:

Each 1,000 people that get infected will generated 50 ICU cases (5%)
We would need to get 3,400,000 people infected (and recovered) for herd immunity. (based on our population of 4.9 million)
Every case over 1,000 cases PER DAY overburdens our health service and cannot be treated properly.

Therefore 3,400,000 people getting infected at a rate of 1,000 people per day = 3,400 days (9ish years)

CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

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CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) Read OP