CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Why are shops not doing social distancing? Everybody packed into the shop yesterday evening, I turned around at the door.

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Why are shops not doing social distancing? Everybody packed into the shop yesterday evening, I turned around at the door.

otnomart wrote: »

Yes.
This post shows this very well.
"Looking at the sequences from Ireland, the one from Cork is actually the same as the very earliest ones from Wuhan."
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...&postcount=973


https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_country=Ireland

Lumen wrote: »

Happy Paddy's Day!

I feel bad posting this, please don't shoot the messenger, I'm doing everything I can practically do to limit the spread within my limited realm of influence.

We're now at 223 confirmed cases, +32% over the previous day. Confirmed cases have been very consistently growing at x1.345/day, doubling three times a week. I don't have any evidence that this growth rate has been over-reported by a change in testing regime, it's possible but the numbers look too tidy for that, no spikes.

I ran Tomas Pueyo's model with Irish inputs and it produces 21,000 cases on the day of the first death, 11 March, assuming Tomas' average fatality rate of 0.87%. Unfortunately I think that is too high, because the earliest cases in Ireland will receive exceptional treatment.

Using 0.6% fatality rate I get 31,000 cases (infections) on 11 March.

The pub shutdown didn't happen until 15 March, so I think it's reasonable to expect the same horrific multiplier up to that point. Maybe notch it down to x1.3 per day. If the transmission rate has gone down we won't have seen it reflected in confirmed cases yet as the median time to symptoms is around 5 days, and people aren't generally being tested until they're symptomatic.

So that would have us at 90,000 cases on 15 March.

If 2.5% of those cases require ventilators (Tomas' stat), we are going to need over two thouand ventilators soon, just to deal with the cases as of 15 March. That's almost x10 the number we had before this started. I assume we can find the "beds" one way or another, and hope we will have enough staff, it's the ventilators that are going to be critical.

Extrapolating the numbers from 15 March is more difficult. There is a high degree of uncertainty with such a small number of deaths, but it's interesting that the second death (first doubling of deaths) occurred three days after the first, which isn't far off doubling every couple of days. There have been no reported deaths since 14 March, two days ago, and that's good news, but I fear that there's going to be trickle of deaths, turning into a steady stream, from as soon as today. (Tuesday).

How many true cases do we have right now? Worst case maybe 120-150k, if "now" includes the whole day. So that's up to 3% of the population.

I don't think we're destinated to lose 5% of the population to this thing. Whilst it looks superficially like Italy is still out of control, they didn't introduce the full lockdown until 11 March, and sure enough, there are signs of a new inflection point as daily new cases have stabilised at under 3,500 for the past three days.

Maybe if we lock EVERYTHING down now we can limit total cases to under 200,000, and deaths to under 10,000. That's 30 years of normal winter flu deaths.

But there's still time to isolate your oldies, as there's a very good chance they don't have it yet!

DYOR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfkbv_WQtn0

ThePopehimself wrote: »

Hey there Boaty McBoatface,

Ever hear of these two? David Attenborough / Queen Elizabeth II???


Both well past 90 and loving it!

Stateofyou wrote: »

Scary stuff

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Isn't it ironic how the current situation will work wonders for global warming?! Planes parked up all over the world for possibly months, cruise liners the same, hardly any vehicles on the road etc!!
Nature has a habit of telling us who's boss now and a while and it certainly ain't us humans! Only spectators at the end of the day...

Lumen wrote: »

Happy Paddy's Day!

I feel bad posting this, please don't shoot the messenger, I'm doing everything I can practically do to limit the spread within my limited realm of influence.

We're now at 223 confirmed cases, +32% over the previous day. Confirmed cases have been very consistently growing at x1.345/day, doubling three times a week. I don't have any evidence that this growth rate has been over-reported by a change in testing regime, it's possible but the numbers look too tidy for that, no spikes.

I ran Tomas Pueyo's model with Irish inputs and it produces 21,000 cases on the day of the first death, 11 March, assuming Tomas' average fatality rate of 0.87%. Unfortunately I think that is too high, because the earliest cases in Ireland will receive exceptional treatment.

Using 0.6% fatality rate I get 31,000 cases (infections) on 11 March.

The pub shutdown didn't happen until 15 March, so I think it's reasonable to expect the same horrific multiplier up to that point. Maybe notch it down to x1.3 per day. If the transmission rate has gone down we won't have seen it reflected in confirmed cases yet as the median time to symptoms is around 5 days, and people aren't generally being tested until they're symptomatic.

So that would have us at 90,000 cases on 15 March.

If 2.5% of those cases require ventilators (Tomas' stat), we are going to need over two thouand ventilators soon, just to deal with the cases as of 15 March. That's almost x10 the number we had before this started. I assume we can find the "beds" one way or another, and hope we will have enough staff, it's the ventilators that are going to be critical.

Extrapolating the numbers from 15 March is more difficult. There is a high degree of uncertainty with such a small number of deaths, but it's interesting that the second death (first doubling of deaths) occurred three days after the first, which isn't far off doubling every couple of days. There have been no reported deaths since 14 March, two days ago, and that's good news, but I fear that there's going to be trickle of deaths, turning into a steady stream, from as soon as today. (Tuesday).

How many true cases do we have right now? Worst case maybe 120-150k, if "now" includes the whole day. So that's up to 3% of the population.

I don't think we're destinated to lose 5% of the population to this thing. Whilst it looks superficially like Italy is still out of control, they didn't introduce the full lockdown until 11 March, and sure enough, there are signs of a new inflection point as daily new cases have stabilised at under 3,500 for the past three days.

Maybe if we lock EVERYTHING down now we can limit total cases to under 200,000, and deaths to under 10,000. That's 30 years of normal winter flu deaths.

But there's still time to isolate your oldies, as there's a very good chance they don't have it yet!

DYOR

Ironicname wrote: »

Is that not the Alcoholic Anonymous prayer?

Ha