CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

Fallschirmjager wrote: »

What Italy is showing is the reality (SKorea as well) of this virus and thats with preparation (good and bad). China is trying to tell us that while hiding it, ignoring it, rejecting it and imprisoning people who talked about it for well over a month they somehow managed to get lower % death rates and then infection rates just stopped at 80k? That somehow small numbers of people ( did they come from Wuhan, if so how?) visiting Italy and other countries started the virus there but people from Wuhan moving internally in China for a month prior to shutdown didnt? Then before its over, they sent people back to work around the country and nope, no virus YET somehow, magically, similar people who travelled in and out from all over the world transmitted it, wow i mean, what are the odds. So now we are to believe, that just the people who flew to other countries had it, not some poor schmuck working in a factory with 5,000 other people in a random city in China. Is that believable? I would suggest they are , just perhaps, not being honest on the true infection rates on this. Their new total today is +36 infected -- let me predict something, tomorrow it will be back in the +10(ish) range because they want people to believe its under control. Lastly on this President Xi went to wuhan (a good sign), BUT did you see what he did- he talked to everyone via TV, no face to face. Is that believable when a virus is over?

China is in full panic about its economy and they should be, they are going to suffer 2 major backlashes when this is all over.

1. all companies both public quoted and private in the west will no longer commit 100% of their production to China - they will be lucky to keep 60%. Why? the next AGM for a public quoted company is going to get asked again and again what is their exposure to letting a single location build its products. The risk mitigation procedures spell really really bad news for China (btw Google and Microsoft have already moved manufacturing to Vietnam in the last month ). The magic draw of unending cheap manufacturing and massive profits in China has been exposed by a virus 0.1 microns in size.

2. the cost of deaths will reverberate for a long time. Like it or not, China is going to get blamed for this, doesnt matter if thats fair or not, racist or not, they will. By the time the dust settles the fear of investment coupled with the anger of a relative or friend who died/redundant/lost careers will influence business decisions. Of course we will be told that 'its nothing personal, its just business' but it is personal and it is business. Add to this mix the soon to be western economic crash, unfortunately inevitable at this point. You think anyone is going to vote for someone who doesnt have a 'bring the jobs home and save ourselves' commentary. You think parents arent going to look at the label of where it is made and think 'is this infected or they killed granddad'. The Chinese magic perpetual growth party is officially over. The business decisions wont be sudden or quick but they will be continuous. Imagine Chinese exports dropping by 40% over 10-15 years, even if i am wrong and it 20%, thats a game changer internally.Its a potential boom for countries like India/Vietnam/South America etc. If they were smart they would be ringing major firms in USA/EU and offering tax relief to relocate. If we in Ireland, are smart we should be doing exactly the same. Cold hearted i know, but there you have it and as i said it is personal and it is business.

The real question that needs to be asked now is how long can the Chinese Communist party keep going. The deal with the Chinese people was they would return China to primacy in the world. That is about to end just as it was announced in January by Xi that it had started. They are now restarting their economy (not an easy thing to do) but who will buy their stuff, the west are going into recession? Sure there are the mandated products, medical etc but their threats of limiting deliveries on that (yes that has already happened with both drugs and n95 masks which is why there is a western shortage) went off in western business circles like a nuke. This is why Jack Ma the billionaire chinese dude of alibaba fame offered to send hundreds of tons of gear to the west- he has realised there is massive trouble brewing. Any business that is dealing with China is going to be very aware of that going forward. I would not be surprised to see a long deliberate extraction of critical product development move out of China in the medium term, the very thing China needs to keep growing. Yes they could go cheap again to counter this, but that affects the chinese worker, who, just like you and me, doesnt want to be poor. Xi is caught badly between 2 issues. At a minimum i would be surprised he survives this but then again, he is tough hombre.

This virus has changed everything. It might not be visible now because we are laser beamed focussed on one thing, avoiding a catastrophe. Italy has right now (they have not posted todays figures) 1,809 dead from this. That is war time death rates. if this was a war there would be marches in the streets. (and this is before all other western nations hit the same death rates as early as next week).

If your response to this is a bar trip to TempleBar or the embarrassing 'ok boomer, it doesnt affect me, young people only get a slight dose' i have some news, because you are not keeping up on current events: The infection is now hitting the 20 to 39 year olds -- they are making close to 50% of serious hospitalised cases in Italy and Holland). In fact one of the first serious cases in Italy apparently was a 39 year old marathon runner. I find it revealing that this new statistic, not one major media company is mentioning it. Add to that we now have initial reports that some people who recovered have lost 20 to 30% of lung capacity (reported from Hong Kong) and the scary but still conspiracy level so far (and nope i dont believe this one); that it is causing infertility in men.

China is in real trouble both internally and externally with this. As some have mentioned it is their Chernobyl moment and so far, they have been left wanting. They had the laughable 100,000 ducks to stop a biblical level locust invasion that is 25 miles long (a pr stunt btw and a really bad one, a duck can eat 20 locusts a day) and via their official news channel last week asked the world to thank them for stopping the virus (good luck with that one china).

This virus is a game changer for the world or at least it has the potential to. it is thrown a hand grenade into the middle of mankind and is questioning things we took for granted. A lot of stuff will be up for grabs after the dust settles. Of course i could be completely wrong and a solution is found in the way of a vaccine or some magic potion. Actually kinda hope i am wrong because when there is uncertainty -- well it can get messy, very very messy.

just my opinion yours may differ.

and to the group that is still saying 'its a flu bro' -- God i so hope you are right...

Stheno wrote: »

The CMO said this Saturday

Try and keep up