Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) Read OP

jamesf85 · 13-03-2020 08:04PM

RandomName2 wrote: »

Yes.

Swine flu had far lower fatality and hospitalization rates. If I remember correctly, the major at-risk group were pregnant women.

Swine flu killed about the same number of people as seasonal flu, so it was like seasonal flu * 2. There was a vaccine developed for swine flu, which was heavily criticized for being rushed (one of the reasons I imagine that we won't have a vaccine for covid any time soon)

Completely understand, the fatality rate here isn't 3.4% though, let's be real. Countries that have done proper testing show that.

China and South Korea got to grips with theirs very quickly. 6 weeks after the real outbreak they're now reporting the the worst is over.

schmoo2k · 13-03-2020 08:05PM

niallo27 wrote: »

We all go into isolation and get this thing under control, then one infected ****er starts it all again. What is the end game here with a vaccine a year away.

To slow down the rate of infections so the hospitals don't get too overwhelmed

Bannasidhe · 13-03-2020 08:05PM

bear1 wrote: »

Living out in Warsaw.
Government just locked down the country, Slovakia and Czech Republic shut down their borders too.
All flights in and out banned from Sunday, everything apart from pharmacies and food stores will be closed from tomorrow.
So to be honest, I would imagine it's a matter of time until Ireland decides to follow suit.
I'm just staggered at the UKs stance.

Just got a message from my son in Ukraine.
Same story there. He's due home in 2 days so hopefully he'll get out the gap in time.

ArchXStanton · 13-03-2020 08:06PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Just got a message from my son in Ukraine.
Same story there. He's due home in 2 days so hopefully he'll get out the gap in time.

How's Ukraine fairing in all this? Haven't heard much

jam_mac_jam · 13-03-2020 08:06PM

This is quite heartwarming

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-siena-song-canto-della-verbena-video-lockdown-a9399176.html

Class MayDresser · 13-03-2020 08:07PM

wonski wrote: »

Poland announcing full block on international flights and trains etc.

Not sure how it's gonna work, but they just did.

Saw a few videos off a polish friends WhatsApp, it's mental over there in the supermarkets

Cupatae · 13-03-2020 08:07PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I genuinely don’t see why they ask that children don’t play with each other yet leave pubs open.

You should listen to the joe rogan podcast about it where he speaks to an actual expert , it gets rid of so much of the ****e being spouted by mainstream media, hand sanitizer is pretty much useless , face masks are a waste of time unless they are the proper ones , the washing hands and you LL be sound is a myth , honestly eye opening when you listen to the experts and hear the reasoning behind it not just sound bites of bull****

Glebee · 13-03-2020 08:07PM

Great to see the BBC taking this seriously. Sport Relief live show with full audience on BBC1.

RoryMac · 13-03-2020 08:07PM

Tootsie_1 wrote: »

Friends and family , listen I said it’s just a feeling so we shall see.

The army won't be out on the streets on Monday in full battle gear, relax

niallo27 · 13-03-2020 08:08PM

schmoo2k wrote: »

To slow down the rate of infections so the hospitals don't get too overwhelmed

I understand that but you cant expect society to stop living for 12 to 18 months. It's just not a viable option.

Lord TSC · 13-03-2020 08:08PM

You know the most frustrating thing about the "Dey closed da skools 2 early!" stuff.

In two weeks, IF closing them down has had an actual proper positive effect, rather than realise that it worked, it will instead be "It never took off, why did they bother closing the schools!"

If we go full lock down, there'll be people claiming the lack of cases wasn't because the measures taken were effective, but instead the lack of cases is "proof" we didn't need to take measures in the first place.

Other countries litterally shutting their boarders, grounding planes, etc. And people going "oh, they closed the schools a little early".

Some people's priorities are bat**** crazy....

Jim_Hodge · 13-03-2020 08:08PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I genuinely don’t see why they ask that children don’t play with each other yet leave pubs open.

Children are often asymptomatic and a major vector for this virus. It saddened me though to hear one health professional on the news say children should not visit their grandparents. It would break our hearts not to see out grandchildren for a few weeks but I do see the logic in minimising the risks of children picking up and transmitting the virus.

jamesf85 · 13-03-2020 08:08PM

schmoo2k wrote: »

To slow down the rate of infections so the hospitals don't get too overwhelmed

Hopefully this works. I'm not sure what's next but there's no way this goes on for more than a month.

Governments and big business' won't allow the to happen. I assume if the measures don't considerably curtail it then it'll be a case of survival of the fittest.

pjohnson · 13-03-2020 08:08PM

At last some countries are starting to restrict travel we need a few more weeks to get that smart.

RandomName2 · 13-03-2020 08:08PM

jamesf85 wrote: »

Completely understand, the fatality rate here isn't 3.4% though, let's be real.

Well in Italy it is about 5.8%.

The WHO puts it at 3.4%.

In China it was about 2%.

I think 2% is a conservative estimate, and while one can hope and work towards making that smaller, it would be unwise to assume less than that.

Gynoid · 13-03-2020 08:09PM

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

This is quiet heartwarming

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-siena-song-canto-della-verbena-video-lockdown-a9399176.html

Lovely.

giveitholly · 13-03-2020 08:09PM

Doctor Shipman wrote: »

He could be. Judging by the amount of ambulances and fire brigade I doubt it.

How many ambulances and fire brigades does it take to get one man off a plane?

Pseudonym121 · 13-03-2020 08:09PM

BetterWay wrote: »

Anyone else a bit numb after Pseudonym's post earlier saying they predict 60 thousand in the Republic die from this?

He/she have been right about everything so far before it happened

I don’t believe that’s what I said although I understand with numbers running around it can be confusing. I said that you’ve got 9 scenarios

Optimistic best case
Reasonable best case
Pessimistic best case

Then the same 3 for middle case

And the same three for worst case.

50,000 to 60,000 was my reasonable middle case.

20k was my pessimistic best case.
10,000 was my reasonable best case
2 to 5k was my optimistic best case

We WERE on track for the reasonable middle case. After yesterday I think we will avoid that. I think we are now in best case territory and the more we all do the more likely it’ll be reasonable best case scenario territory over the next 12 months.

These are obviously estimates. No-one knows for sure but the more we do the lower the death rate and yesterday was a HUGE step in the right direction. Next week you’ll see significant further moves to enforce social isolation and reduce the impact of travel internationally as well as free and create capacity within the HSE. Things which have been unthinkable for years I’ll happen overnight in the HSE because people understand the crisis.

By next week we’ll see as much seismic shifting of the Irish state’s reaction as we did this week and that’ll reduce deaths even more. Honestly we should stop looking at daily numbers and just focus on social isolation etc. The government and state are making good choices - a little later than I’d have liked but a lot sooner than some of our neighbours.

Sorry if I was unclear in what I wrote before. I’ll review it and see if I need to edit it.

ChikiChiki · 13-03-2020 08:09PM

Glebee wrote: »

Great to see the BBC taking this seriously. Sport Relief live show with full audience on BBC1.

But it's Great Brittania. Taking back control by being different to everybody else.

RandomName2 · 13-03-2020 08:09PM

Lord TSC wrote: »

In two weeks, IF closing them down has had an actual proper positive effect, rather than realise that it worked, it will instead be "It never took off, why did they bother closing the schools!"

If we go full lock down, there'll be people claiming the lack of cases wasn't because the measures taken were effective, but instead the lack of cases is "proof" we didn't need to take measures in the first place.

SARS WAS A HOAX

pjohnson · 13-03-2020 08:09PM

jamesf85 wrote: »

Hopefully this works. I'm not sure what's next but there's no way this goes on for more than a month.

Governments and big business' won't allow the to happen. I assume if the measures don't considerably curtail it then it'll be a case of survival of the fittest.

It'll end up like Italy with a stronger enforced lockdown and "big business" can fúck itself

Sober Crappy Chemis · 13-03-2020 08:10PM

Lord TSC wrote: »

You know the most frustrating thing about the "Dey closed da skools 2 early!" stuff.

In two weeks, IF closing them down has had an actual proper positive effect, rather than realise that it worked, it will instead be "It never took off, why did they bother closing the schools!"

If we go full lock down, there'll be people claiming the lack of cases wasn't because the measures taken were effective, but instead the lack of cases is "proof" we didn't need to take measures in the first place.

Other countries litterally shutting their boarders, grounding planes, etc. And people going "oh, they closed the schools a little early".

Some people's priorities are bat**** crazy....

I blame the teachers.

amadangomor · 13-03-2020 08:11PM

Opinions on this please?

The other half has brought the children down for the weekend to see her parents. Children - one 5th class in primary school school, the other in creche. The youngest has a cough and snotty which is the way he's been most of the winter.

Her parents are mid 70s, both with underlying conditions. I kept stum as I would be shot as the messenger but for me she is putting her parents at unnecessary risk and shouldn't be going anywhere near them now.

ironingbored · 13-03-2020 08:11PM

olestoepoke wrote: »

Any source or evidence to back this claim up? There is that much fake news going around this week that it's difficult to know what real and whats bull.

"Between 1/4 and 1/3 of patients hospitalised require intensive care...including the young...including the young..."

Dr. Antonio Pesenti
Coordinator Intensive Care Crisis Unit
Ospedale Policlinico (Milan)

Happy to translate more including the part were he says 600,000 Italians could die; the same number of Italians who died in WWI.

This is 1 example from 1 hospital.

https://www.la7.it/piazzapulita/video/coronavirus-dentro-gli-ospedali-del-nord-la-corsa-contro-il-tempo-per-sconfiggerlo-12-03-2020-313003

ArchXStanton · 13-03-2020 08:12PM

Lord TSC wrote: »

You know the most frustrating thing about the "Dey closed da skools 2 early!" stuff.

In two weeks, IF closing them down has had an actual proper positive effect, rather than realise that it worked, it will instead be "It never took off, why did they bother closing the schools!"

If we go full lock down, there'll be people claiming the lack of cases wasn't because the measures taken were effective, but instead the lack of cases is "proof" we didn't need to take measures in the first place.

Other countries litterally shutting their boarders, grounding planes, etc. And people going "oh, they closed the schools a little early".

Some people's priorities are bat**** crazy....

I think a lot of politicians were asleep at the wheel on this one and thought everything would be OK once it was happening in China, I remember thinking when it kicked off over there that we'd be fcuked if it broke out across the world

Cupatae · 13-03-2020 08:12PM

Lord TSC wrote: »

You know the most frustrating thing about the "Dey closed da skools 2 early!" stuff.

In two weeks, IF closing them down has had an actual proper positive effect, rather than realise that it worked, it will instead be "It never took off, why did they bother closing the schools!"

If we go full lock down, there'll be people claiming the lack of cases wasn't because the measures taken were effective, but instead the lack of cases is "proof" we didn't need to take measures in the first place.

Other countries litterally shutting their boarders, grounding planes, etc. And people going "oh, they closed the schools a little early".

Some people's priorities are bat**** crazy....

Same selfish whingers only thinking of themselves , the shut downs are completely needed.

They re prob the same types trampling people in order to panic buy

pjohnson · 13-03-2020 08:12PM

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

I don’t believe that’s what I said although I understand with numbers running around it can be confusing. I said that you’ve got 9 scenarios

Optimistic best case
Reasonable best case
Pessimistic best case

Then the same 3 for middle case

And the same three for worst case.

50,000 to 60,000 was my reasonable middle case.

20k was my pessimistic best case.
10,000 was my reasonable best case
2 to 5k was my optimistic best case

We WERE on track for the reasonable middle case. After yesterday I think we will avoid that. I think we are now in best case territory and the more we all do the more likely it’ll be reasonable best case scenario territory over the next 12 months.

These are obviously estimates. No-one knows for sure but the more we do the lower the death rate and yesterday was a HUGE step in the right direction. Next week you’ll see significant further moves to enforce social isolation and reduce the impact of travel internationally as well as free and create capacity within the HSE. Things which have been unthinkable for years I’ll happen overnight in the HSE because people understand the crisis.

By next week we’ll see as much seismic shifting of the Irish state’s reaction as we did this week and that’ll reduce deaths even more. Honestly we should stop looking at daily numbers and just focus on social isolation etc. The government and state are making good choices - a little later than I’d have liked but a lot sooner than some of our neighbours.

Sorry if I was unclear in what I wrote before. I’ll review it and see if I need to edit it.

Can we get pseudo a stickythread or something?

Their posts get lost in the fast moving nature of this thread?

Phibsboro · 13-03-2020 08:13PM

amadangomor wrote: »

Opinions on this please?

The other half has brought the children down for the weekend to see her parents. Children - one 5th class in primary school school, the other in creche. The youngest has a cough and snotty which is the way he's been most of the winter.

Her parents are mid 70s, both with underlying conditions. I kept stum as I would be shot as the messenger but for me she is putting her parents at unnecessary risk and shouldn't be going anywhere near them now.

Send her this video, with no comment (its the Dublin Paediatrician from RTE News today saying NO grandparent visits).

https://youtu.be/R2RJXa5oTXU

Snowbiee21 · 13-03-2020 08:13PM

https://worldcams.tv/ireland/dublin/temple-bar
They just don’t give a boll** do they?

Funsterdelux · 13-03-2020 08:14PM

is_that_so wrote: »

As they keep saying, it's about personal responsibility and you can go here.

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/coronavirus.html

Theres a large cohort of folk not tech savy, but have phones

Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

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Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) Read OP