Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) Read OP

is_that_so · 13-03-2020 04:29PM

Boggles wrote: »

Do you have "look" fearful to be fearful?

They are humans not comics.

And yet this gem is no evidence that they are "fearful". Heard of a couple I know and he, at 79, reckons that she, at 75, is going to get it first because she ticks more risk boxes! Both are in decent health BTW.

Ardillaun · 13-03-2020 04:29PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

74 new cases in Brazil.

Including, possibly, someone who met Trump recently.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/12/trudeau-trump-coronavirus-self-quarantine-response/

Apparently, a second test is awaited on the Brazilian President.

Phibsboro · 13-03-2020 04:30PM

flynnlives wrote: »

hes not a real doctor.

He actually doesn't claim to be, he is a retired medical educator. All he does in these videos is summarise the current situation and suggest basic approaches that people (and governments) should be following. Nothing outrageous or alarmist. This is About from YouTube:

My name is John Campbell and I am a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England. I also do some teaching in Asia and Africa when time permits. These videos are to help students to learn the background to all forms of health care. My PhD focured on the development of open learning resources for nurses nationally and internationally.

Martina1991 · 13-03-2020 04:30PM

smelly sock wrote: »

Lack of testing in Ireland only has our numbers as low as they are.

I find it funny that our journalists and commentators slag off Trump for his claims on the availability of testing when it's nearly impossible to get one over here.

The CDC have around 75,000 test kits, for a US population of 327 million people. Many of those can't afford healthcare and testing is costing them thousands.

We have a population of 4.8m and can test on a continuous basis, but only at one laboratory. Our limitations are staff and facilities.

You can't compare the 2.

Scotty # · 13-03-2020 04:31PM

Phibsboro wrote: »

This lad is actually on the ball, definitely worth a listen.

He's just reiterating what every media outlet has already stated and advised.

Popoutman · 13-03-2020 04:31PM

dunlop22 wrote: »

There’s reports of flights stopping from Monday. I was talking to someone who works in the airport and she said they were told.

I've also heard this, but thirdhand from safety staff in Shannon Airport.
Do we have any further info on this one?

munsterlegend · 13-03-2020 04:31PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

The CDC have around 75,000 test kits, for a US population of 327 million people. Many of those can't afford healthcare and testing is costing them thousands.

We have a population of 4.8m and can test on a continuous basis, but only at one laboratory. Our limitations are staff and facilities.

You can't compare the 2.

They are doing it outside of Dublin lab now as well. In cork anyway and I think a few other places.

is_that_so · 13-03-2020 04:32PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

The CDC have around 75,000 test kits, for a US population of 327 million people. Many of those can't afford healthcare and testing is costing them thousands.

We have a population of 4.8m and can test on a continuous basis, but only at one laboratory. Our limitations are staff and facilities.

You can't compare the 2.

That is being addressed in the next week or so I believe.

otnomart · 13-03-2020 04:32PM

Unbelievable:
Paris is looking for volunteers to run the polls at the local elections.
Good luck with that !
https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/coronavirus-craignant-de-manquer-d-assesseurs-la-mairie-de-paris-lance-un-appel-aux-volontaires-1874492.html

Hector Savage · 13-03-2020 04:32PM

completedit wrote: »

This daily reporting of cases is pure nonsense. The virus is here. We know that.

Yep just causes more fear and panic, stress , anxiety ... which will be more damaging long term.

redarmy · 13-03-2020 04:33PM

There are now 99 confirmed cases of COVID-19 on the island of Ireland, with the 9 new cases reported now in Northern Ireland.

Pseudonym121 · 13-03-2020 04:33PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Out in the streets today saw and met a fair few elderly. They really didn't look that fearful at all.

Yes, they are self-selecting themselves into a particular cohort. This is how natural selection works.

gmisk · 13-03-2020 04:33PM

Phibsboro wrote: »

He actually doesn't claim to be, he is a retired medical educator. All he does in these videos is summarise the current situation and suggest basic approaches that people (and governments) should be following. Nothing outrageous or alarmist. This is About from YouTube:

My name is John Campbell and I am a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England. I also do some teaching in Asia and Africa when time permits. These videos are to help students to learn the background to all forms of health care. My PhD focured on the development of open learning resources for nurses nationally and internationally.

Well do you not think it is a bit misleading going by the name of Dr John? His PHD is in totally non relevant area...

Cody montana · 13-03-2020 04:33PM

cravings wrote: »

bolsonaro has been tested... not tested positive

You sure about that?

“Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus days after Trump meeting”

Professor Moriarty · 13-03-2020 04:34PM

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

It shouldn't. There are no big conspiracies here. I just am speaking as an individual who happens to be a doctor and not an HSE or government representative. I started speaking out here a couple of weeks ago because it wasn't being communicated how serious it was and people weren't being given the opportunity to prepare in time. I felt an ethical and moral obligation to speak out on a personal level, informed by my training and clinical experience.

BUT I maintained a separation in roles between me as an individual and my HSE role as a Consultant and even up till now didn't say things which I could only know through my role.

I've always spoken from first principles and my understanding of statistics, epidemiology and pandemics, not from any knowledge of HSE actions.

What I will say is they're now taking it very seriously and I'm much, much more optimistic than I was 2 weeks ago... but no, none of you have the right to know the detailed preparations until they are officially publicly released and I won't break that... but they're all going in very much the right direction and if they were doing this 2 weeks ago I'd never have spoken up.

TDLR: Chill, it is all going in very much the right direction, there are no conspiracies.

Striking the right balance ethically and morally.

Squeaksoutloud · 13-03-2020 04:34PM

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Yeah but he isn't wrong. In Ireland I'd be astounded if we had less than 700 infected people today. The criteria for doing a test were very strict. They'll be loosened going forward as more testing kits become available but until we do widespread testing our confirmed numbers will always be much less than the real number of infected.... and then at a certain point we'll move to symptomatic diagnosis ( where we diagnose on the basis of symptoms instead of on the basis of a confirmed test ). When community spread is really ramped up you'll find that community testing will stop and the testing kits will be diverted to hospitals to confirm need for admission and to test staff so we can keep the non-COVID portions of hospitals free from staff with COVID-19.

To be fair though the figures in all of Europe are much higher than are being reported because nowhere has enough testing kits so this isn't a case of government incompetence. This is simply what happens when you get a fast-moving epi/pandemic.

All of this focus on daily confirmed infections is really missing the point. What matters is that there is community spread and that we need to socially distance/isolate, handwash etc. Whether we have 70 cases or 700 we have to take the same steps.

So when you state 10% need ICU care we are talking about 10% of confirmed cases. If we only confirming 10% of actual infections then reality is only 1% of people will need intensive care. I was taking the infected figures and percentages from Italy as gospel until yesterday when it became apparent there was a hell of a lot more out there than reported cases...

youreadthat · 13-03-2020 04:34PM

Injuryprone wrote: »

Where Boris' strategy falls down and something which seems to be missed in the current analysis is that the quoted 1% mortality rate is where the health system manages somewhat.

Looking at the numbers in Italy where the health system has been overrun, out of 15+k cases they've over 1k deaths which is over 6.5% and there's also only 1250 or so recovered so you could say out of the concluded cases, the death rate is near 50%!

I also think that those saying that Boris is just following his advisors advice are just wrong. What I think would more likely have happened is that the advisors would have given the politicians a few options of ways to go and Boris chose to go this way so they all have to roll with it. It's quite obvious that nearly all of the other countries have chosen the other option.

I understand there some sort of teleconference this evening for European leaders. I'd say unless the UK falls into line, travel from the UK should be cut off

Get this genius on the case BoJo.

Pseudonym121 · 13-03-2020 04:35PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

Paddy doesn't do lock-down.

We are looking at the absolute worst-case now. All the economic destruction of the lock-down - school closures and losses in productivity and revenues - combined with the same rate of infection the UK are going to get.

We'll end up in the same place as the UK, with a decent herd immunity, but with a devastated economy.

Still, the social media brigade, braying for a lock-down, will be kept happy so the politicians will view it as a good result.

We aren't looking at the absolute worst-case scenario now. In fact we're looking at a much improved scenario with a lower absolute number of deaths ( and lower death rate ) compared to not having the lockdown.

Yes there will be economic damage but believe me this will happen anyways because this isn't a 3 month issue, this is a 12 month issue and then a seasonal issue for the rest of our lives.

Your post is not factually correct and so incorrect as to be harmful.

is_that_so · 13-03-2020 04:35PM

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Yes, they are self-selecting themselves into a particular cohort. This is how natural selection works.

Eh, Ok, I've no idea what this means but I'm happy you do.

Phibsboro · 13-03-2020 04:35PM

Cody montana wrote: »

You sure about that?

“Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus days after Trump meeting”

His son has now said that in fact there was only an initial positive test and they are waiting on a second, definitive test.

igCorcaigh · 13-03-2020 04:35PM

When are they releasing today's numbers though?

Tacitus Kilgore · 13-03-2020 04:36PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

When are they releasing today's numbers though?

same time as every other day I would guess, just before 6

Martina1991 · 13-03-2020 04:36PM

Salthillprom wrote: »

It's impossible to get tested. My son has come down with an uncontrollable fever and we live in an area with a number of confirmed cases. He is coughing and wheezing like there's no tomorrow. He isn't asthmatic or anything. I've rang the HSE three times since yesterday and they are saying that they are ONLY testing people who have been in contact with a confirmed case. However, we were with ppl who had come from locked down areas of different countries last weekend. I've phoned them and they're well but I've a horrible feeling that this isn't just a normal cold. Given a number of people in our community are in hospital with Covid-19, it's not unreasonable to think he possibly came into contact with them somewhere at some stage. We live in a close knit area.

If anyone presents to A&E with respiratory symptoms you can be tested even with no recent travel history. This has been reported by the Irish Times.

Now is probably the best time to go with EDs being very quiet.

Popoutman · 13-03-2020 04:36PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

In my experience it's the lads in their 20's/30's that are the biggest fear-mongers. The older generation are far too sensible to buy into the hysteria being generated online.

It's not hysteria in the main part. Yes, there are some that are over-hyping, but there are unfortunately more in the country that are refusing (either consciously or otherwise) to accept that things are *not* all rosy for the next few months, and whose refusal to plan and work with the rest of the community to slow the spread will effectively lead to a worse set of circumstances than otherwise would have happened.

Unless you have actual knowledge that disputes the experts in the field, please stop trying to downplay the realities of this situation. It's not helping anyone.

is_that_so · 13-03-2020 04:36PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

When are they releasing today's numbers though?

It's been 6-6.30 all this week so I guess it will be the same.

is_that_so · 13-03-2020 04:39PM

Popoutman wrote: »

It's not hysteria in the main part. Yes, there are some that are over-hyping, but there are unfortunately more in the country that are refusing (either consciously or otherwise) to accept that things are *not* all rosy for the next few months, and whose refusal to plan and work with the rest of the community to slow the spread will effectively lead to a worse set of circumstances than otherwise would have happened.

Unless you have actual knowledge that disputes the experts in the field, please stop trying to downplay the realities of this situation. It's not helping anyone.

Do you have actual examples of people "refusing" to accept things? Saying you don't think it'll get so bad is not the same thing.

igCorcaigh · 13-03-2020 04:39PM

WHO briefing

https://youtu.be/_djqmmc8ZsI

Call Me Jimmy · 13-03-2020 04:39PM

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Don't even know what to think about this.

I mean, yes, this is how I think, as someone with almost lifelong OCD. I have barely ventured outside over the past week, except when I've been forced to work. My mental state is really, incredibly poor, though. I've been invited to have a drink in a beer garden in a quiet pub and am considering it. Would disinfect and/or wash hands after handling the glass and be careful not to touch my face and all that.

It's hard to find a balance between trying to stay safe and not going completely insane.

Not a go at you personally but more of a rant:

It's your duty to isolate. Unless you're working or have an emergency, nobody should be meeting up with anyone.

We have a couple weeks window before our health system is overrun and people can't just recognise what's going on? Countries are shutting down!

If everyone thinks 'ah sure I'll just meet up here or there, I'll keep my eyes peeled for the virus' then it will equate to more chaos in our health system.

The government would tell every single person in the country to stay inside if it was feasible and vital services could be maintained. Everyone should be inside doing their duty to curb the peak.

cloudatlas · 13-03-2020 04:40PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They become immune for this years strain only. Without a vaccine the only way to eliminate it is a total wipeout like the Chinese are attempting and they are almost there. Their new cases are less than our own despite having 300 times the population. A couple of weeks from now new cases there will be counted on one hand. At that stage it becomes manageable with targeted containments.

Its impossible in an epidemic to stop the spread to the at risk group in the UK. The grandparents mind kids anyways such as school holidays like Easter and Summer. And the kids will spread it to them in general. If it becomes endemic the chances of spread to at risk rises hugely. And if they survive this years strain, they may not next years one. So you end up with grandparents permanently isolated at home. And nursing homes permanently closed off.

And then you have the question of vulnerable patients in hospital. How are they supposed to attend hospital appointments if they risk picking up CV?

UK citizens will also be banned permanently from most countries in the world who are trying to control the spread. And no tourists will go to the UK for fear of picking it up.

The UK government haven't thought this through.

The UK government have thought this through they are advised by a Scientific advisory body which contains professors from the top universities in the U.k. they agree with the approach taken. That youtube guy with the phd that everyone keeps posting didn't criticise it either. There is a good article here explaining why they've taken these measures https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...why-it-gave-it

Obviously they don't have the same info you have about the next strain that is arriving next year.

13-03-2020 04:40PM

So I decided to spend less time on this thread and converse with people in the real world. I can now confirm that they are more cray cray than we are. So I’m back.

Yesterday morning I was told that a family with a health professional in their family had “da virus”. In the last 36 hours who that is has moved from one doctor to another and it’s alternating between them all now.

I’ve now been told I’m in a red zone. I dunno what that means but the army is apparently coming to swab us all. Finner camp is being prepared as I type.

Definitely time to hibernate and take ChikiChiki’s lead and buy a guitar and teach myself to play.

Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

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Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) Read OP