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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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    #7022
    1641
    Registered Users Posts: 1,265 ✭✭✭1641


    I had a read of Stacking the Coffins re the Spanish Flu in Ireland (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Stacking-Coffins-Influenza-Revolution-Ireland/dp/1526122693)

    It refers to some modelling done in 2006 by a expert group led by a Prof from the NVRL on the possible impact of another major Flu epidemic here. The figures may be of interest. Two scenarios, both based on an Irish pop of 4.23 million.

    First scenario. A Flu with a clinical attack rate of 25% and a fatality rate of 0.55%. This predicted 3,217 deaths.

    Second scenario. A Flu with a clinical attack rate of 50% and a fatality rate of 2.5%. This predicted 52,937 deaths.

    The book's author suggested a possible problem with the model was that it was based on the pattern of spread of epidemics in England and Wales in 1957 and 1969-70. The suggestion is that the population density and dispersal here might produce different outcomes.

    Still sobering figures, especially the second scenario, in which the fatality rate seems similar to this Covid. I am not sure about the infection rate? Also, I think our total pop (Republic) is closer to 5 million now.


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    #7023
    facehugger99
    Registered Users Posts: 7,266 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    givyjoe wrote: »
    I think you need to have a google of that word. The vast, vasty majority of the posts in earlier threads were concerns based on facts and what was happening on China, would happen elsewhere. What a shock.. it IS happening elsewhere. :rolleyes:

    Do you have this weeks' lottery numbers by any chance Nostradamus?


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    #7024
    otnomart
    Registered Users Posts: 4,065 ✭✭✭otnomart


    Question:
    Does anyone know if the HSE has sequenced the samples from the first patients ?

    "A country may have many #hCoV19 cases, but may not have sequenced any of them".

    https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/1237314360856449025


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    #7025
    completedit
    Registered Users Posts: 2,639 ✭✭✭completedit


    blade1 wrote: »
    Stay in and isolate if you're worried.
    They can't see every hypochondriac that claims to have it.

    But they are either trying to curb it or not. I’m not selfish so took off work but I’m on a zero hour contract. I want to know that when I’m grand in a few days, it’s okay for me to go back to making money. Right now, once I’m out of bed, I’ll be thinking of going back to work.


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    #7026
    Stevieluvsye
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,907 ✭✭✭Stevieluvsye


    Hodors Appletart wrote: »
    police stations will start to close here on the weekend of the 27/28th March as all the Gardaí on OT for the 17th develop symptoms.

    No OT will be needed


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    #7027
    laugh
    Registered Users Posts: 3,745 ✭✭✭laugh


    Stevieluvsye wrote: »
    My question to you is why the fcuk are people looking for advice from a DJ?

    She's a doctor.


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    #7028
    givyjoe
    Registered Users Posts: 3,287 ✭✭✭givyjoe


    Strazdas wrote: »
    But even scientists were divided. For every one of them saying shut down the country, there would have been another saying it was totally unnecessary.

    It's very easy to be wise after the event.

    We literally have a test case to inform us on what to do, and how to do it. Isn't really that difficult. We are just delaying the inevitable, in the hope, that it doesn't happen.


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    #7029
    ldy4mxonucwsq6
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,537 ✭✭✭ldy4mxonucwsq6


    Trinity cancels all lectures from tomorrow onwards, only a matter of times before the same happens for the rest of schools and colleges.


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    #7030
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,383 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    ArchXStanton wrote: »
    You think the images coming out of China would have served as a warning... But nah sure fcuk it, it'll be grand..

    Where has anyone on the thread said this week "it will be grand". Stop generalising. There is a virus in Europe and it is killing people and nobody is denying it is happening.


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    #7031
    Grab All Association
    Registered Users Posts: 3,917 ✭✭✭Grab All Association


    OneEightSeven wrote: »
    People who attended Blindboy podcast in Ennis required to self-isolate due to coronavirus

    What about the people who listened to it?


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    #7032
    Ipso
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,995 ✭✭✭Ipso


    Strazdas wrote: »
    But even scientists were divided. For every one of them saying shut down the country, there would have been another saying it was totally unnecessary.

    It's very easy to be wise after the event.

    If there was a massive shut down and the worse case didn’t materialize, you would end up with a sh1t load of people moaning. Then when another virus comes along and a shut down or serious action is suggested, people will bring up the old false alarm.


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    #7033
    ArchXStanton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭ArchXStanton


    completedit wrote: »
    Economies will recover. A sharp short bit of pain that fades in comparison to 2008. Sometimes you have to adapt to the situation that we find ourselves in. Nature doesn’t care for our economy. Take the hit, shut down and stop this from spreading, Ireland is in a much better situation than Wuhan to be able to do this if people can just have a bit of sense and think of the greater good. Needs to be support for all the workers who will find themselves out of pocket very soon. I’m barely okay. Have a bit of savings but on a zero hour contract.

    Ireland lacks that Asian mentality were they fall into line for the common good, hell you could say most of the western world does. Look at the difference in people's behaviour from the Japan tsunami and the hurricane in New Orleans, no looting or anything of the sort in Japan.


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    #7034
    joe40
    Registered Users Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭joe40


    I'm certainly no cheerleader for our politician but in this instance they seem to have been following the medical/scientific advice, not just from Ireland but Europe as well. Easy to call people stupid from the sidelines.

    There have been no instances that I know of, where there was a large consensus of scientific opinion advising one course of action with, our politicians going against the advice.
    In fact at every opportunity they are wheeling out the medics/scientists to give the advice and updates.


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    #7035
    givyjoe
    Registered Users Posts: 3,287 ✭✭✭givyjoe


    facehugger99 wrote: »
    Do you have this weeks' lottery numbers by any chance Nostradamus?

    The same numbers are coming up every week.


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    #7036
    Spook_ie
    Registered Users Posts: 10,896 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    It starts, shut down Ireland

    https://www.tcd.ie/visitors/book-of-kells/
    Covid-19 Notice
    We wish to inform you that the Book of Kells and Old Library Exhibition will temporarily close to visitors until further notice. This is a precautionary measure to minimise the spread of Covid-19. This decision has been made to protect the health and safety of our visitors and the university community.

    Existing ticket holders will be contacted regarding refunds via email.

    We apologise for any inconvenience caused and thank you for your understanding.


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    #7037
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    The Italian press literally begging people to stay home

    https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_10/coronavirus-dottoressa-che-ha-ritratto-l-infermiera-cremona-vorrei-che-questa-foto-fosse-invito-ad-aiutarci-come-restando-casa-fc6041ac-62ca-11ea-a693-c7191bf8b498.shtml


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    #7038
    dublin99
    Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭dublin99


    Must be bad when the International Realist Conference 2020 in Dublin end of March is postponed.

    https://realist2020.org/

    Or are they just being realistic?:D:D


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    #7039
    tom1ie
    Registered Users Posts: 10,221 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    What’s the age breakdown for deaths in Italy at the minute?


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    #7040
    Stevieluvsye
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,907 ✭✭✭Stevieluvsye


    Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »
    Trinity cancels all lectures from tomorrow onwards, only a matter of times before the same happens for the rest of schools and colleges.

    My contact in the HSE reckons it will be from Friday


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    #7041
    odyssey06
    Registered Users Posts: 28,735 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »
    Trinity cancels all lectures from tomorrow onwards, only a matter of times before the same happens for the rest of schools and colleges.

    That was the headline - in fact they just moved lectures online. Labs etc still going on but with distancing between students. It's not a shutdown.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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    #7042
    Multipass
    Registered Users Posts: 1,678 ✭✭✭Multipass


    Tootsie_1 wrote: »
    Spain has 415 new cases today ...

    I have a weekly class where the teacher just said that she's going to Spain for Easter - because 'we're all going to get this eventually', and 'it's just like the flu'. I'm thinking I might not go back after Easter....


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    #7043
    blade1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,264 ✭✭✭✭blade1


    completedit wrote: »
    But they are either trying to curb it or not. I’m not selfish so took off work but I’m on a zero hour contract. I want to know that when I’m grand in a few days, it’s okay for me to go back to making money. Right now, once I’m out of bed, I’ll be thinking of going back to work.

    So you're not too worried about having it so.


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    #7044
    Hodors Appletart
    Registered Users Posts: 2,069 ✭✭✭Hodors Appletart


    tom1ie wrote: »
    What’s the age breakdown for deaths in Italy at the minute?

    mostly 80+


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    #7045
    Silent Running
    Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Silent Running


    Quick question: how many tests have we done to date, RTE have been saying "over 1000" for about a week now.


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    #7046
    frillyleaf
    Registered Users Posts: 801 ✭✭✭frillyleaf


    givyjoe wrote: »
    Why on earth is she still going?

    What age is she and does she have anyone to look after her if she becomes very ill. She might be terrified and trying to escape from it especially if there is no one to look after her. If this isn’t the case I can’t understand why someone would put a family at risk like that. I know plenty of people that have cancelled holidays and trips incase they infect vulnerable people in their family such as grand parents


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    #7047
    Tootsie_1
    Registered Users Posts: 308 ✭✭Tootsie_1


    Multipass wrote: »
    I have a weekly class where the teacher just said that she's going to Spain for Easter - because 'we're all going to get this eventually', and 'it's just like the flu'. I'm thinking I might not go back after Easter....

    How irresponsible surely she would be advised not to come back to work for 2 weeks after ? Anyway god only knows what will be going on by Easter here or In Spain, she may well be going nowhere.


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    #7048
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 75,981 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    HowardBeale wrote: »
    There's so many factual inaccuracies you can't name one eh!.

    Also I haven't offered any advice. Think vitamins and minerals boost the immune system, you dispute this?.

    If so why?.

    Also research in my own head as opposed to?. Research in my ankles?.

    Ultimately all research is done in someone's head regardless of where or what the source is including all your research and everyone else's on planet earth that statement you made makes no sense.

    Anyways You stick with the wet wipes and I'll stick with the vitamins and minerals eh!.
    Do not post in this thread again


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    #7049
    Miike
    Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    otnomart wrote: »
    Question:
    Does anyone know if the HSE has sequenced the samples from the first patients ?

    "A country may have many #hCoV19 cases, but may not have sequenced any of them".

    https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/1237314360856449025

    Can you tell me what you've taken from this? I dont get the relevance of it


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    #7050
    otnomart
    Registered Users Posts: 4,065 ✭✭✭otnomart


    tom1ie wrote: »
    What’s the age breakdown for deaths in Italy at the minute?
    Italy publishes: number of tests; positives; hospitalised; in intensive care; age profile of victims; comorbidities of victims https://www.iss.it/coronavirus/-/asset_publisher/1SRKHcCJJQ7E/content/id/5292020? and http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/dae18c330e8e4093


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    #7051
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Strazdas wrote: »
    But even scientists were divided. For every one of them saying shut down the country, there would have been another saying it was totally unnecessary.

    It's very easy to be wise after the event.

    Scientists can be bought and paid for. Same goes for academic research around any business. Smoking is not that bad. Sugar is not the problem, Fat is. Insecticides don't do damage etc.

    Somebody has to pay for the research unfortunately. They don't take a hippocratic oath.

    Best to triangulate any opinion and not follow experts blindly. Perfect example in this crisis is economy vs health. There is a balance to be stuck. We assume that economy takes precedence over health but that decision may damage economy more and in the long run. Time will tell.


This discussion has been closed.
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