Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP

joe40 · 10-03-2020 01:12AM

If there was a EU wide shut down, similar to Italy. No flights, only essential work all others stay at home. Completely ban on social events etc. Say we did that for 4 weeks.
Would the virus not still be in existence somewhere so when normal service resumes, the infections would just start up again. Back to square one.

Pseudonym121 · 10-03-2020 01:12AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It was said a couple of times that flu was more transmissible than covid 19. Thought it was the other way round?

It is the way around. Flu has R0 of 2. This has a R0 of 3-4.

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 10-03-2020 01:12AM

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

I have followed this since early January and was concerned throughout that the media and government weren't giving it much attention at all.

Now its like they are in overdrive, did anyone else notice the fear in the two Simons faces recently?

They know how bad this is and how bad its going to get....

I really hope there are experts working around the clock trying to figure this virus out and that we have some positive news soon.

Can you imagine the world brought to a standstill by something we cannot even see?

I was getting out of my car to go in home earlier after being out at the doctor and in the bank, thinking about all the clothing (jacket, shoes, pants) that had been in contact with objects and how I would disinfect them, remembering to take gloves off and bin them outside... and this really hit home. The worst thing is not knowing if you potentially have come into contact with it and had it infect you. In Cork it's a very real worry, not that you'd think it from the continuous party line being spewed out in the media.

John Hopkins said today over 97% of cases show symptoms on the eleventh day.

cnocbui · 10-03-2020 01:14AM

bekker wrote: »

He's a virologist not an epidemiologists, opinion, not his field of expertise. Further point, populations have a certain level of immunity to flu viruses but none to Covid-19.

I wish people would stop assuming medical and other specialists expertise is confined solely to and by their nominal job titles.

fritzelly · 10-03-2020 01:14AM

I've been putting this together the past few days - lots of stuff still to add, but only got so much time each day
If anyone has suggestions or wants to help PM me

https://coronavirus-ireland.com/

(hope this is ok Beasty)

bekker · 10-03-2020 01:14AM

Mwengwe wrote: »

We underestimate old folks sometimes - they've lived through a lot of scary stuff in their time, and most of us can testify that despite being more vulnerable they tend to be less anxiety-ridden about health threats like this current one. I think when you get to a certain age you develop a certain 'whatever will be, will be' attitude. It's perfectly understandable - when you reach old age any number of things can take you, you know? Not to be blunt about it.

Thanks for the vote of confidence, but what we don't want is to be zero'd by some dickhead who didn't bother to make some adjustments to lifestyle and take simple precautions simply because they couldn't be bothered and put measured warnings down to needless 'panic'.

10-03-2020 01:15AM

Strazdas wrote: »

The virus expert was trying to point this out on CB but the alarmists were having none of it.

I'm pretty sure he said he was extremely sceptical that 50% of the population could get the virus given that it is difficult to transmit.

Some sources say the R0 for CV19 is higher than for flu though. Seems like theres uncertainty around this.

Pseudonym121 · 10-03-2020 01:15AM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Make that 12 months at a minimum.

Not necessarily. If we don’t slow the spread this will peak and burn out much more quickly - 15 weeks to 2.5 million infected and all those will be dead or better within 20 weeks by which time rate and number of infections will fall rapidly —— assuming no other strains develop/spread.

So the more we slow it’s spread the longer it’ll last. I share your hope that it lasts a long time at a slow rate though. *fingers crossed*

Rob A. Bank · 10-03-2020 01:15AM

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

Anyone know what will happen to court cases and in particular criminal cases where people are remanded in custody awaiting sentence? District courts have hundreds of people turning up every day and i dare say that a lot of them aren't too concerned about hygene. Court sittings can't really just stop when people's liberty is at stake.

They are doing the courts by video link in the UK I understand... I imagine it would be the same here.

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 10-03-2020 01:16AM

fritzelly wrote: »

I've been putting this together the past few days - lots of stuff still to add, but only got so much time each day
If anyone has suggestions or wants to help PM me

https://coronavirus-ireland.com/

(hope this is ok Beasty)

This is fantastic.

Beasty · 10-03-2020 01:17AM

MrsDoyl3 wrote: »

Any advice for me please, im immunecompromised having had cancer twice and an autoimmune disease called hashimoto, now i never thought of myself but more so my dad, he is 76 and has COPD, he spends 6 weeks in hospital every year with the flu the vaccine brought on a massive heart attack a few years back so hes advised not to get that.

Ive 3 children, one was die to go to a party Saturday my hsiabdn said no, becuae hos friend flew back from disneyland the night before, i just got an awful feeling.

Same little lad walked into school this morning so i kept my son off on my dads gps advice, same GP said of my father gets it or my mother or my mother in n law who has bad asthma, we are in deep trouble. Im my fathers carer also

Please do no ask for such advice. It's against site rules to ask for or offer any medical advice. Please discuss with your doctor

Mervyn Skidmore · 10-03-2020 01:17AM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

They are doing the courts by video link in the UK I understand... I imagine it would be the same here.

Video link here is probably less than 1% of all cases i understand. Not all cases are suitable for video link.

Miike · 10-03-2020 01:17AM

fritzelly wrote: »

I've been putting this together the past few days - lots of stuff still to add, but only got so much time each day
If anyone has suggestions or wants to help PM me

https://coronavirus-ireland.com/

(hope this is ok Beasty)

If you keep that timeline updated I'll personally buy a pint. I keep jotting notes down and not putting them together :rolleyes:

tikkahunter · 10-03-2020 01:17AM

That charade on the late late show last Friday was disgrace - telling people to go out socializing , eat out and carry on as normal. They should of being informing people of the steps to take to prevent the spread of this , it dosnt need to be mass hysteria just the steps you need to take to help prevent you and your family catching or spreading the virus.

kowloon · 10-03-2020 01:18AM

zweton wrote: »

Should we stay away from the gym?

I've managed it this far in life.

STB. · 10-03-2020 01:18AM

eclipsechaser wrote: »

Just a back of the envelope calculation. If say 2.5% of the population are infected at one time, that's 120,000 infected. Of those, if 5% need ICU care, that's 6,000 people needing an ICU bed. We have 255 beds. That's worse than 1 ICU bed for every 20 people needing it. That's 19 out of 20 critically ill people not being treated.

I actually think those numbers are conservative if anything. Worst case scenarios could be 1 ICU bed for every hundreds of people needing it.

Tell me I'm missing something...

10% is the figure in Italy.

The decisions having to be made by surgeons in Italy about who gets treated by ventilator is catastrophic.

bekker · 10-03-2020 01:18AM

cnocbui wrote: »

I wish people would stop assuming medical and other specialists expertise is confined solely to and by their nominal job titles.

In this case there is a much more relevant speciality, why not on panel?

quokula · 10-03-2020 01:19AM

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

Only an opinion. She’s not an epidemiologist.

It did feel a bit like when the BBC used to always put on the only pro-Brexit economist in the country as a counter to the sensible views of others in the name of balance.

Her and that McConkey guy, who's been milking his five minutes of fame for all it's worth lately, have some pretty extreme views, seemingly there to balance out the sensible advice of the virologist and GP on the panel.

Procasinator · 10-03-2020 01:19AM

joe40 wrote: »

If there was a EU wide shut down, similar to Italy. No flights, only essential work all others stay at home. Completely ban on social events etc. Say we did that for 4 weeks.
Would the virus not still be in existence somewhere so when normal service resumes, the infections would just start up again. Back to square one.

Possibly, but if we slow the rate down it means our hospitals will be under less pressure. This will mean less deaths, as the estimated 20% that have more severe forms, and in particular the 5% that could be critical, are more likely to get the treatments they need.

Considering the Irish health system has been hobbling along before Coronavirus even entered the picture, anything that can be done to have less active cases has to be considered.

nocoverart · 10-03-2020 01:19AM

Lots of figures and opinions at warp speed here, but how are we as Humans of this great lil island really feeling? I’m personally concerned with vulnerable family members as I’m sure many are but still trying to be optimistic.

cnocbui · 10-03-2020 01:20AM

MrsDoyl3 wrote: »

Any advice for me please, im immunecompromised having had cancer twice and an autoimmune disease called hashimoto, now i never thought of myself but more so my dad, he is 76 and has COPD, he spends 6 weeks in hospital every year with the flu the vaccine brought on a massive heart attack a few years back so hes advised not to get that.

Ive 3 children, one was die to go to a party Saturday my hsiabdn said no, becuae hos friend flew back from disneyland the night before, i just got an awful feeling.

Same little lad walked into school this morning so i kept my son off on my dads gps advice, same GP said of my father gets it or my mother or my mother in n law who has bad asthma, we are in deep trouble. Im my fathers carer also

Sounds like your husband and the GP are on the right track. No parties, school or social contacts for the children (or anyone), they will get over it or make up for lost time later. That's my advice.

wakka12 · 10-03-2020 01:21AM

https://www.facebook.com/283374595043407/posts/2766344390079736/
France starting to export now..first case in Mongolia is a French tourist

bekker · 10-03-2020 01:22AM

eclipsechaser wrote: »

Just a back of the envelope calculation. If say 2.5% of the population are infected at one time, that's 120,000 infected. Of those, if 5% need ICU care, that's 6,000 people needing an ICU bed. We have 255 beds. That's worse than 1 ICU bed for every 20 people needing it. That's 19 out of 20 critically ill people not being treated.

I actually think those numbers are conservative if anything. Worst case scenarios could be 1 ICU bed for every hundreds of people needing it.

Tell me I'm missing something...

That's 255 if we chuck out the current occupants.

Cork Boy 53 · 10-03-2020 01:23AM

Larbre34 wrote: »

There will be a Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party government in place by the end of this week.

There will be a war committee of all the party leaders and appointed spokespersons established for opposition input and consent.

Micheal Martin will be Taoiseach and conceivably Leo may be Tánaiste with an emergency management portfolio. I don't think we'll see Harris back in a combined cabinet, but you will be looking at a very experienced government. Hopefully.

You have a vivid imagination.

Beasty · 10-03-2020 01:23AM

fritzelly wrote: »

I've been putting this together the past few days - lots of stuff still to add, but only got so much time each day
If anyone has suggestions or wants to help PM me

https://coronavirus-ireland.com/

(hope this is ok Beasty)

Please ask before putting anything like this up

For anyone clicking on that link, this is no different from anything you see here. It may pull together in a single place relevant data, but we cannot vouch for the accuracy of anything you get from that link. Please treat anything you see there accordingly

Any questions PM me - do not respond to this post in-thread

all about the mane · 10-03-2020 01:23AM

fritzelly wrote: »

I've been putting this together the past few days - lots of stuff still to add, but only got so much time each day
If anyone has suggestions or wants to help PM me

https://coronavirus-ireland.com/

(hope this is ok Beasty)

Someone doing something productive. Brilliant. There should be a fund me page organised for this.

10-03-2020 01:23AM

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

It is the way around. Flu has R0 of 2. This has a R0 of 3-4.

Seems v high. Looking at other sources, some say around 2.3. Another said as low as 1.4.

fritzelly · 10-03-2020 01:23AM

Miike wrote: »

If you keep that timeline updated I'll personally buy a pint. I keep jotting notes down and not putting them together :rolleyes:

Will be doing as soon as they are released

wakka12 · 10-03-2020 01:24AM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1237161479473946624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1237161479473946624&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Ffg4di1%3Fresponsive%3Dtrue%26is_nightmode%3Dfalse
Western Europe is reporting similar daily numbers as China did in it's shortlived peak a few weeks ago- 2500 or so per day

lainey_d_123 · 10-03-2020 01:24AM

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

I was getting out of my car to go in home earlier after being out at the doctor and in the bank, thinking about all the clothing (jacket, shoes, pants) that had been in contact with objects and how I would disinfect them, remembering to take gloves off and bin them outside... and this really hit home. The worst thing is not knowing if you potentially have come into contact with it and had it infect you. In Cork it's a very real worry, not that you'd think it from the continuous party line being spewed out in the media.

John Hopkins said today over 97% of cases show symptoms on the eleventh day.
https://www.jhsph.edu/news/news-releases/2020/new-study-on-COVID-19-estimates-5-days-for-incubation-period.html

This kind of thinking led me to develop severe OCD. I think it's going a bit too far, honestly. All the medical professionals have advised handwashing, avoiding crowds and basic good hygiene. I think worrying about what parts of clothes have touched objects is sliding into OCD territory, and what's you're there, it's hard to ever go back.

I'm sure people will snap back and tell me it's better that than dying of corona, but just saying, I had a good reason at the time to adopt my habits as well. Didn't stop it becoming very toxic and far more of a problem than the initial threat.

Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP