Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

GolfNut33 wrote: »

What a joke of a government we have. Italy have quarantined a quarter of its population but we are afraid to stop flights from italy. Ha fooking Ha....absolutely fooking nuts.

Nijmegen wrote: »

I think that what is being referred to as scaremongering is indeed not, it is officials trying to get the population ready. The more conditioned we are to the idea that large numbers of people will get the virus, the less panic you might get when it occurs - I don’t personally think 1.9m will get it in 3 weeks and I’ve been in these threads since the beginning and bought extra in my shops since January. But let’s say 50,000 people get it. That number seems rather large, but small in comparison to 1.9m. Do a bit of mental conditioning and then doing things like shutting down particular regions seems sensible, rather than a sudden move with major panic.

And by the way, at 50,000 with 15% of cases being serious (as abroad) that’s 7,500 cases needing serious intervention in hospital. That’s pretty big.

markodaly wrote: »

30% and say a best case of 1% fatality rate (which is conservative) = crica 14,700 who will die.

I suppose one good thing about the numbers coming from italy is that no one under 50 has died, but it certainly targets the eldery.

This is a new reality now, a vacine is at best a year away if not more. This is now the new normal for the next few years.....

Deleted User wrote: »

And don't forget vets

nocoverart wrote: »

Poor bastard! you’ve involved yourself in these threads since January. I’ve done like a week and I feel numb with it all.

Miike wrote: »

This CT scan notion was discussed in some detail last night. CT scans are NOT more accurate. I assume the Chinese paper you're referring to is the one which states that Radiologists could potentially have a role in diagnosing SARS-CoV-2 based on prototypical radiological patterns in CT scans. These patterns are produced during the latter stages of pathogenesis. rRT-PCR can detect viral genetic material prior to the onset of symptoms and thus there will be NO radiological findings in such early stages.

The study does, however, purport the idea that Radiologists can differentiate between causes of pneumonia or ground glass opacities based on the aforementioned patterns.

littlemac1980 wrote: »

It hasn’t played out in any country yet, unless you count China. There was skepticism about their numbers from the start. Serious skepticism.

Now their numbers are more or less widely accepted and the WHO investigative team stated from the evidence they saw, that China had gotten the contagion under control.

China locked down an entire province over night and restricted everyone to their homes/apartments over night. Italy have just done that.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Italians can go somewhere else to get flights to Ireland.

You want to stop all flights in and out of Ireland? Otherwise very limited effect.

Strazdas wrote: »

30% of the Irish population contracting this virus seems incredibly high given the low infection rate so far (0.00001% or whatever the number is).

I'd love to know where they are getting these projections from.

Miike wrote: »

You know, I can deal with the vet comment. The thing that irked me royally is the attempt to undermine the VITAL clinical role of a hospital pharmacist.

Nijmegen wrote: »

There have been a number of studies linked up thread (and up multiple threads now) about how this could spread to 40-70% of the population in countries. Nobody knows of course because it’s modelling based on statistical probabilities around a new and evolving situation.

But as others point out, when it goes it will go quickly - one day you have 50 new cases and a few days later you have a few thousand in a day. And remember, confirmed cases and actual cases aren’t the same thing. They had no confirmed cases in Iran till people started dying.

But as China has proved, extraordinary measures can stem it.