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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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Comments

  • #2192
    littlemac1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭littlemac1980


    citysights wrote: »
    How did the health officials come up with the 1.9 million number of possible infections in Ireland in the coming weeks. That’s nearly half our population. Is that not a bit overdone as this hasn’t been the case in any other country has it that nearly half the population got infected?

    It hasn’t played out in any country yet, unless you count China. There was skepticism about their numbers from the start. Serious skepticism.

    Now their numbers are more or less widely accepted and the WHO investigative team stated from the evidence they saw, that China had gotten the contagion under control.

    China locked down an entire province over night and restricted everyone to their homes/apartments over night. Italy have just done that.

    It’s the only proven method of reducing the contagion... the later you wait to do that, the bigger the problem and the larger amount you will have to quarantine... then the hospitals have to deal with the infected.

    The health system have to deal with the ones who got identified before the quarantine, and also those infected that haven’t yet been identified in the two weeks before the quarantine. Plus whoever gets infected during quarantine (which is hopefully much much lower) The health system have to deal with them, which according to the data so far is about 20% of infected.

    People accuse posters here - who are just stating facts and data from reputable sources as being hysterical, of creating hysteria. Clearly these people have no idea of what hysteria is... anyone accusing people of being hysterical here for making sensible suggestions or observations should give it 3-4 weeks and walk into any A&E in the country, then you’ll know what actual hysteria is.


  • #2193
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    STB. wrote: »
    It doesn't work. How can a system where the answer is we are not testing you, its too early to tell and you are showing no symptoms (of which symptoms are not a requirement) and we don't want to say its negative, only for that to change in a few days time, work ? Come back in 10 days, when you won't need a test as you'll need a tube inserted into you to help you breathe. We'll then confirm its coronavirus as an afterthought for our numbers.

    Not alone does it not work, it fuels an already bláse and carefree "it will be grand" attitude, that is already out there. Voluntary isolation is another issue, heavily influenced by economic wherewithal and social and personal responsibility.

    This post is a lot of words for saying "It doesn't work because I don't understand it".


  • #2194
    Larbre34
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,446 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    bb12 wrote: »
    the country is awash with cattle so there'll never be any shortage of meat or dairy products anyhow

    There will if there are too few workers to process them into food and milk.


  • #2195
    darjeeling
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 962 ✭✭✭darjeeling


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    This is never going to happen.

    It's what epidemiologists model could realistically happen if we did nothing to stop it, given the % susceptible (100%), the basic reproduction rate and the incubation time.

    What we will do and how effective it will be remains to be seen.


  • #2196
    nocoverart
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭nocoverart


    citysights wrote: »
    Article in Sunday Business Post. Figures they say are based on modeling. They expect half of this figure to occur within a short three week period. You can find the article on their website. It has to be scare mongering, were that to happen well we wouldn’t cope.I hope their models are way off..

    Genuine question, what would be the motive for scaremongering? so we all follow the guidelines perhaps.


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  • #2197
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    New Home wrote: »
    And I hope you never have to find yourself in a position of having to say what I said and mean it.
    I could probably treat myself better than a vet could treat me. Maybe surgery. I was never good with blood.


  • #2198
    Nijmegen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    bb12 wrote: »
    the country is awash with cattle so there'll never be any shortage of meat or dairy products anyhow

    This is something a lot of folks forget and is one reason why I’m quietly optimistic about life in Ireland during an outbreak. We are a net food exporter, whereas the UK for example is a net food importer. We can feed ourselves, and when all else is failing around you that will be the making or breaking of a society. If things were to get really bad and supply chains fell apart between countries and within countries like the UK (talking unlikely worst case scenario here) we’d stand a better chance.


  • #2199
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    6 new cases in Brazil, total 25


  • #2200
    boege
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 469 ✭✭boege


    Miike wrote: »
    I hate to be this guy, but I'm really hoping you'd answer my question in relation to PCR 'not working'. Link below.

    I posted on this earlier - CT scan is more accurate. This if well published both by Chinese and Italian medical professions who are facing this virus in a daily basis.

    In fact an Italian doctor's story was posted earlier and he suggested that patients could be diagnosed with no test as they were showing very similar symptoms.

    The PCR test only produces a positive and gives false negatives in that people retested later show positive. Others here have explained why this happens - its just that the patient is not showing the virus ..yet!

    I note some countries (NI) now using the phrase 'presumptive positive result' -does anyone know what this means?


  • #2201
    leavingirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 551 ✭✭✭leavingirl


    citysights wrote: »
    How did the health officials come up with the 1.9 million number of possible infections in Ireland in the coming weeks. That’s nearly half our population. Is that not a bit overdone as this hasn’t been the case in any other country has it that nearly half the population got infected?

    No Irish health officials came up with any numbers. It came from the same people who lied and lied about the previous fake epidemics such as SARS and Swine Flu.

    "How we're building our evidence is based on the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the World Health Organisation and the public health team are leading on that."

    The CDC and WHO are proven liars who have inflated infection numbers in the past. The pharma companies then come along and make billions on pushing the dangerous vaccines. All facts.

    Reading some of the Panti Blisses on this thread you would think we are all going to die.

    The sad fact is that many elderly people only have the dreadful RTE for their news sources and are getting more and more anxious. Totally unnecessary.
    There are armies across northern Italy tonight. Do you really think this is all happening for your safety??? Do you really think so??


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  • #2202
    The chan chan man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 823 ✭✭✭The chan chan man


    Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »
    Hadn't looked at the figures for a couple of days, I knew Italy was bad but holy crap the figures coming out of there lately are just nuts.

    What do others think has happened there to cause this?

    Compared to the rest of Europe (and the world actually) they have a crazy number of cases.

    Is this just down to testing high numbers and the elevated death rate there explained by the demographic of higher population of older residents?

    10% of all deaths worldwide from this have been recorded in Italy.

    “Bonjourno!”

    (Mwah mwah mwah mwah)...


  • #2203
    Spook_ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,896 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    65 is not that old if you think about it, We sure have thousands of over 65 here

    Have to agree with you, it's not important comparing Italy with Ireland, what's needed is a mortality rate for the over 65s and then apply that to the over 65 population of Ireland.

    The assumed mortality rate would appear to be around 2-3%, if that's mainly over 65s then according to CSO.ie data then we could be facing anything between 12000 to 20000 deaths in the 65+ age groups due to CoVid19


    When you think the total deaths in Ireland for 2016 were around 30,000 total that is scary!


    https://www.joe.ie/news/irelands-leading-causes-death-revealed-646264







    https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2017pressreleases/pressstatementcensus2016resultsprofile3-anageprofileofireland/
    65 years and over
    This age group saw the largest increase in population since 2011, rising by 102,174 to 637,567, a rise of 19.1%. The census recorded 456 centenarians, an increase of 17.2% on 2011. Over half a million or 577,171 in this older age group lived in private households, an increase of 19.6%, while those in nursing homes increased by 1,960 to 22,762.


  • #2204
    Nijmegen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    nocoverart wrote: »
    Genuine question, what would be the motive for scaremongering? so we all follow the guidelines perhaps.

    The tone and language used in various countries by officials has been changing in recent days and over the past week or so. Early last week the UK started openly talking about an epidemic. It’s to prepare people for the shock of what’s to come and start them mentally accepting the changes that need to be made, well beyond hand washing.


  • #2205
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    I must say the 1.9m figure in 3 weeks does just seem impossible. 90,000 people becoming infected daily in the country, 1 in every 50 citizens getting the virus every single day for nearly a month

    Surely this is assuming nobody does anything at all to try and stop it, no self isolation, hand washing, closure of schools and public gatherings etc/?


  • #2206
    Nijmegen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    6 new cases in Brazil, total 25

    If Brazil goes, there goes the entire English study-travel industry in Ireland.


  • #2207
    Cheerful Spring2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,705 ✭✭✭Cheerful Spring2


    The Dow Jones Industrial Average just dropped a 1000 points. The markets don't look healthy at all. Fear is taking over. Ended at 25,000 end of week another 1000 decline so far.


    505060.png

    This report from last week when hit 25,000.

    https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/27/the-dow-jones-drops-nearly-1200-points-as-coronavirus-fears-batter-stock-markets/


  • #2208
    drunkmonkey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,027 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Stock up on the steaks and cheese...

    Ketogenic diet helps tame flu virus
    Date:
    November 15, 2019
    Source:
    Yale University

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/11/191115190327.htm


  • #2209
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    nocoverart wrote: »
    What fooking meteor is this? time for the bunker now me thinks : )

    Not a meteor, it`s an asteroid. Have a read of this.

    asteroid-headed-towards-earth-2020-may-cause-human-2842061

    It could be a race as to which one will wipe out all life on the planet first, the virus or the asteroid. :rolleyes:


  • #2210
    ArchXStanton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭ArchXStanton


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    6 new cases in Brazil, total 25

    They've actually been doing pretty well, I thought that place would be another Iran /Italy/China


  • #2211
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,393 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    Stock up on the steaks and cheese...

    Ketogenic diet helps tame flu virus
    Date:
    November 15, 2019
    Source:
    Yale University

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/11/191115190327.htm

    Great news for mice.


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  • #2212
    wexfordman2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,559 ✭✭✭wexfordman2


    expectationlost wrote: »
    he had visited somebody at the CUH?

    Yep


  • #2213
    Tordelback
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 677 ✭✭✭Tordelback


    wakka12 wrote: »
    I must say the 1.9m figure in 3 weeks does just seem impossible. 90,000 people becoming infected daily in the country, 1 in every 50 citizens getting the virus every single day for nearly a month

    Surely this is assuming nobody does anything at all to try and stop it, no self isolation, hand washing, closure of schools and public gatherings etc/?

    Yes, that is what it assumes. And so far, that's what's happening.


  • #2214
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,297 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    leavingirl wrote: »
    No Irish health officials came up with any numbers. It came from the same people who lied and lied about the previous fake epidemics such as SARS and Swine Flu.

    "How we're building our evidence is based on the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the World Health Organisation and the public health team are leading on that."

    The CDC and WHO are proven liars who have inflated infection numbers in the past. The pharma companies then come along and make billions on pushing the dangerous vaccines. All facts.

    Reading some of the Panti Blisses on this thread you would think we are all going to die.

    The sad fact is that many elderly people only have the dreadful RTE for their news sources and are getting more and more anxious. Totally unnecessary.
    There are armies across northern Italy tonight. Do you really think this is all happening for your safety??? Do you really think so??

    I thought that figure of 1.9m Irish people having the virus being bandied about today as an almost fact was deeply irresponsible (and entirely counter-productive).

    I would say the same for the Sunday Business Post and their headline.


  • #2215
    nocoverart
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭nocoverart


    Nijmegen wrote: »
    The tone and language used in various countries by officials has been changing in recent days and over the past week or so. Early last week the UK started openly talking about an epidemic. It’s to prepare people for the shock of what’s to come and start them mentally accepting the changes that need to be made, well beyond hand washing.

    Don’t want to come across as a smart ass but then its not really scaremongering


  • #2216
    tillyfilly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 567 ✭✭✭tillyfilly


    Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average just dropped a 1000 points. The markets don't look healthy at all. Fear is taking over. Ended at 25,000 end of week another 1000 decline so far.


    505060.png

    This report from last week when hit 25,000.

    https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/27/the-dow-jones-drops-nearly-1200-points-as-coronavirus-fears-batter-stock-markets/

    a full week out of date ?


  • #2217
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Yeh I was surprised going out in Dublin to see that absolutely nobody had a mask on. I was in the city centre from 1 until 9pm and didnt see a single one, I wasnt expecting many but I thought there would be a few cautious folk


  • #2218
    bb12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 888 ✭✭✭bb12


    Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average just dropped a 1000 points. The markets don't look healthy at all. Fear is taking over. Ended at 25,000 end of week another 1000 decline so far.


    505060.png

    This report from last week when hit 25,000.

    https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/27/the-dow-jones-drops-nearly-1200-points-as-coronavirus-fears-batter-stock-markets/

    crude oil down to $32 a barrel!
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-stock-oil-futures-crater-on-coronavirus-crude-war-fears-224253935.html


  • #2219
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    boege wrote: »
    I posted on this earlier - CT scan is more accurate. This if well published both by Chinese and Italian medical professions who are facing this virus in a daily basis.

    In fact an Italian doctor's story was posted earlier and he suggested that patients could be diagnosed with no test as they were showing very similar symptoms.

    The PCR test only produces a positive and gives false negatives in that people retested later show positive. Others here have explained why this happens - its just that the patient is not showing the virus ..yet!

    I note some countries (NI) now using the phrase 'presumptive positive result' -does anyone know what this means?

    This CT scan notion was discussed in some detail last night. CT scans are NOT more accurate. I assume the Chinese paper you're referring to is the one which states that Radiologists could potentially have a role in diagnosing SARS-CoV-2 based on prototypical radiological patterns in CT scans. These patterns are produced during the latter stages of pathogenesis. rRT-PCR can detect viral genetic material prior to the onset of symptoms and thus there will be NO radiological findings in such early stages.

    The study does, however, purport the idea that Radiologists can differentiate between causes of pneumonia or ground glass opacities based on the aforementioned patterns.


  • #2220
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    HXB0G7B.png

    Growth of cases in countries after the first 50 cases are detected. Major anomalies Singpoare who seem to catch every case before it spreads and Japan who inexplicably seemed to have just decided to not test anyone, and USA who are now beginning to uncover an ongoing epidemic through testing


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  • #2221
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    New Home wrote: »
    And I hope you never have to find yourself in a position of having to say what I said and mean it.
    Why so bitter? You've added nothing to the conversation apart from saying you'd rather be reviewed by a vet than a doctor? Are you Catwoman?


This discussion has been closed.
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