Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! read OP

Kermit.de.frog · 04-03-2020 11:39PM

Volthar · 04-03-2020 11:39PM

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes, even though it is been mentioned a few times on the thread, a number of posters seem to keep assuming the Chinese trend will be repeated in Europe by magic, without recognising what drastic measures have been in place to reduce the numbers in China.

For exemple Northernern Italy is now at a stage whereby Chinese authorities would have closed all large businesses, stopped outbound traffic from all airports, stopped all intercity buses and trains, restricted people’s right to leave their home to just once every couple of days to do grocery shopping, strictly locked down the road network to make sure no one can leave the metropolitan area, and made it mandatory to wear masks outside of home.

Disposable mask €3 a piece in Donaghmede chemist. This is a crime. China was right enforcing masks even if you are not symptomatic. Would be hard here if you need to use €60 worth of rip-off masks per day per family.

Gooey Looey · 04-03-2020 11:39PM

Fakediamond wrote: »

They’ll eventually develop a vaccine and that will help immensely

Yeah it could take a while as there are no animal variants to test on

LaFuton · 04-03-2020 11:39PM

froog wrote: »

really good AMA with a group of medical experts on reddit. Answers a LOT of questions that pop up here regularly.

https://new.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fdf5fq/we_are_a_team_of_medical_experts_following/

f#*k reddit.

Rob A. Bank · 04-03-2020 11:40PM

The same virus which infected one individual in China in November/December last year... Then 2... then 4 etc. etc. has finally arrived here. And look what damage it has caused in just 3 months.

The number of people infected in an epidemic generally follows a bell shaped curve so it can be mathematically modeled to predict the numbers infected per day.

A Chinese researcher modeled the Covid-19 virus and got an optimistic result and a researcher from Lancaster University in the UK got a more pessimistic result. Both are shown below and the actual number of cases/day until mid February.

mapping-the-outbreak-3.jpg?w=840

The Chinese managed to ‘flatten the curve’ or ‘delay the peak’ with absolutely draconian measures, thus saving an enormous number of infections/day and cases/day later.

There is no reason to believe that the virus will not follow a similar trajectory here, if we cannot track and isolate every infected person and their contacts.

All the cases here to date seem to have been found and isolated, which is good news.

Which curve will we follow later … the optimistic one or the pessimistic one ?

That depends on how well we can keep the lid on the infections. Doing OK so far it seems.

In the end... only time will tell.

babybuilder · 04-03-2020 11:40PM

tillyfilly wrote: »

Once this hits Africa it’s endemic in the human population

Endemic means reappearing every year or so. Worldwide.

Kermit.de.frog · 04-03-2020 11:40PM

greenfield21 wrote: »

Thailand were thought to have lower cases due to weather.

Thailand has low cases because they literally don't bother testing.

That's why so many flights have been suspended to the country.

igCorcaigh · 04-03-2020 11:40PM

stevek93 wrote: »

When are we going to see the results of Remdesivir?

Trials are being done right now.
Results soon I hope, but phase 2 on that will take a couple of months more.

I'm hoping for a decent antiviral by summer.

MarkY91 · 04-03-2020 11:41PM

Cuckoo7 wrote: »

I do hope the seller chockes on it.

I offered him €1

arybvtcw0eolkf · 04-03-2020 11:41PM

And another flight from Milan about to land in Dublin tonight

We've probably failed to stem the tide of C-19 by this stage, IMO these flights should have stopped when cases of C-19 got out of hand in northern Italy, but once again Simpleton Simon Harris has let us all down.

stevek93 · 04-03-2020 11:41PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Just thinking about what will happen in countries like India, Nigeria, Brazil etc. One the virus gets into the poorer areas of these countries, it will likely become rampant with high mortality rates.

The warm weather in these countries will tell us how we are looking come the summer.

04-03-2020 11:42PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Trials are being done right now.
Results soon I hope, but phase 2 on that will take a couple of months more.

I'm hoping for a decent antiviral by summer.

This medication is only available on a compassionate use basis. We aren't sure how effective it is.

ArchXStanton · 04-03-2020 11:42PM

Gooey Looey wrote: »

Yeah it could take a while as there are no animal variants to test on

Russia has developed 5 prototypes for a vaccine... They've been keeping fairly quiet over all this

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-march-4-a69117

fritzelly · 04-03-2020 11:42PM

Kali Greasy Alcoholic wrote: »

And another flight from Milan about to land in Dublin tonight.

I'm guessing 8 cases on that flight

the butcher · 04-03-2020 11:42PM

That case in Slovenia -> The patient had travelled to Slovenia from Morocco via Italy.

stevek93 · 04-03-2020 11:43PM

Kali Greasy Alcoholic wrote: »

And another flight from Milan about to land in Dublin tonight

We've probably failed to stem the tide of C-19 by this stage, IMO these flights should have stopped when cases of C-19 got out of hand in northern Italy, but once again Simpleton Simon Harris has let us all down.

We might as well let Wuhan in while we are at it.

babybuilder · 04-03-2020 11:43PM

Kali Greasy Alcoholic wrote: »

And another flight from Milan about to land in Dublin tonight

We've probably failed to stem the tide of C-19 by this stage, IMO these flights should have stopped when cases of C-19 got out of hand in northern Italy, but once again Simpleton Simon Harris has let us all down.

Sinister Harris

the butcher · 04-03-2020 11:43PM

https://twitter.com/knittingknots/status/1235329640484528128

tillyfilly · 04-03-2020 11:44PM

babybuilder wrote: »

Endemic means reappearing every year or so. Worldwide.

It will filter from Africa as it’s new ‘wuhan’ every year

Spanish Eyes · 04-03-2020 11:44PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Just thinking about what will happen in countries like India, Nigeria, Brazil etc. One the virus gets into the poorer areas of these countries, it will likely become rampant with high mortality rates.

They will come to Ireland as asylum seekers. Betcha, not as if they don't know the supply lines by now either.

That was tongue in cheek before the usual crowd gang up on me.

I'm more concerned about Ireland and its scale of infection. We won't really know for another month or so I reckon anyway. But even though the numbers infected here are low, they are multiplying quite quickly from what I can see.

Let's just hope we can contain it. I say that with a lot of hope.

Call Me Jimmy · 04-03-2020 11:44PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Just thinking about what will happen in countries like India, Nigeria, Brazil etc. One the virus gets into the poorer areas of these countries, it will likely become rampant with high mortality rates.

Remember the early days when the WHO first started doing press conferences and it was just in hubei or china they were mostly saying 'we would be very concerned if it got into a country with weaker health systems'.

With each country having their own problems there won't be as much help available as needed.

bb12 · 04-03-2020 11:45PM

stevek93 wrote: »

a positive thought if 83% of mild symptoms is true then the majority of cases will get over it and hopefully develop immunity if so then once the vast majority of the population has immunity maybe this then might fizzle out? Correct me if I am wrong but I am seeing just doom a gloom lately and trying to hope for the best.

there's some talk emerging of fibrosis of the lungs being an issue in people who have recovered. read an article about a young boy in china who had it but was asymptomatic . when they scanned his lungs they found some scarring. survivors of the virus may have lung issues going forwards.

wakka12 · 04-03-2020 11:45PM

MD1990 wrote: »

St Patrick's Day going ahead would be insane.

Everyone drunk touching each other.
We could beat China's record of 14,000 infected in a day if it goes ahead,

St Patricks day will still go ahead..pubs will still be open and probably busy..its just the parade that may be closed

babybuilder · 04-03-2020 11:46PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Remember the early days when the WHO first started doing press conferences and it was just in hubei or china they were mostly saying 'we would be very concerned if it got into a country with weaker health systems'.

With each country having their own problems there won't be as much help available as needed.

Substitute HSE for WHO.

caveat emptor · 04-03-2020 11:46PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

My point is there are 6 cases which have manifested now and given the longer incubation period of this disease, that 6 today translates to 6 last week at the very least. Given the growth rate of cases the number of cases in the community is much larger. Thant's how we knew it was bad in China initially. Statistically it was possible to predict with high certainty that actual case count was order of magnitudes larger due to the spread internationally. Based on epidemiology modelling of human migration / flight patterns etc.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1225668790198759424?s=20

irishgeo wrote: »

If we are underestimating cases the death rate is lower too.

Yes agreed. Outcome is however unknown for most cases which skews death rate lower as large number of people in early stages in Italy. Severe cases can last for 4 to 6 weeks. True death rate won't be know until it's come and gone.

"the median time from onset to clinical recovery for mild cases is approximately 2 weeks and is 3-6 weeks for patients with severe or critical disease"

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

woejus · 04-03-2020 11:46PM

fritzelly wrote: »

I'm guessing 8 cases on that flight

Carry on or checked in? must be a small plane

the butcher · 04-03-2020 11:47PM

https://twitter.com/cnnphilippines/status/1235335503714619393

Kermit.de.frog · 04-03-2020 11:47PM

igCorcaigh · 04-03-2020 11:47PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This medication is only available on a compassionate use basis. We aren't sure how effective it is.

That's why trials are being done right now.
It will take a few months for the results to be out and for guidance to change.

There are other agents in the pipeline too.

We will have an effective treatment, I hope, before a vaccine. That should be next year.

Marz66 · 04-03-2020 11:48PM

There were lots of ski trips to Italy during midterm, the week of 17-21 Feb so a lot of those people may have caught the virus but are not showing symptoms yet. So we could see a huge increase in Ireland in the next week or so.

Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

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Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! read OP