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US Presidential Election 2020

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    #2912
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,923 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    She got plenty of favorable media coverage, its on her that she failed.

    Kloub as VP for Biden would make sense for the rust belt, Warren as VP ? The white liberal New York Times journos would be sown up but as her abysmal results have shown not sure she really has that much appeal outside that niche market.

    She's also too old if Biden is POTUS.


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    #2913
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    She's also too old if Biden is POTUS.

    Agreed. It would probably enrage the Bernie team as more so serves no point whatsoever.

    Decent article from Vox about why Warren has struggled, to long etc?

    Basically America is still a working class country who Warren has not been able to connect with. You can have the best policies but if Joe Public can't get into you then you are dead.

    https://www.vox.com/2020/3/3/21162527/what-happened-to-elizabeth-warren


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    #2914
    Englo
    Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭Englo


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Agreed. It would probably enrage the Bernie team as more so serves no point whatsoever.

    Decent article from Vox about why Warren has struggled, to long etc?

    Basically America is still a working class country who Warren has not been able to connect with. You can have the best policies but if Joe Public can't get into you then you are dead.

    https://www.vox.com/2020/3/3/21162527/what-happened-to-elizabeth-warren

    So basically the same reason Trump is president, the republicans hold almost all power, and Bloomberg got the third most votes on a platform of "I'm much richer than any of you, you know" - an (often intentionally) woefully lacking education system.


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    #2915
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    America's primary problem with Elizabeth Warren is that she is an opinionated woman. Same as that was their problem with Hillary Clinton.


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    #2916
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,569 ✭✭✭✭briany


    The fact is, I think - the polls are not going to accurately reflect what will happen in these primaries. It's bearing out that they've already been quite misleading. What's probably happening is that there is a lot of quiet Biden support going on - a sort of political dark matter that can't really be quantified by pollsters. Combine this with the fact that younger people just will not put their words into actions and actually vote, things looks decidedly shaky for Bernie.

    For anyone else you'd say this was still an extremely tight race, but Sanders needs momentum in order not to give the Democratic establishment more of an excuse to oppose him. Any faltering leaves him prone.


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    #2917
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    briany wrote: »
    The fact is, I think - the polls are not going to accurately reflect what will happen in these primaries. It's bearing out that they've already been quite misleading. What's probably happening is that there is a lot of quiet Biden support going on - a sort of political dark matter that can't really be quantified by pollsters. Combine this with the fact that younger people just will not put their words into actions and actually vote, things looks decidedly shaky for Bernie.

    For anyone else you'd say this was still an extremely tight race, but Sanders needs momentum in order not to give the Democratic establishment more of an excuse to oppose him. Any faltering leaves him prone.

    Biden's base is not online. So while many people were proclaiming him dead after each debate it did not really connect with those who showed up to vote yesterday.

    Remember when Harris finished his campaign supposedly?


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    #2918
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,642 ✭✭✭eire4


    pixelburp wrote: »
    I know there has been talk about some tactical purpose to Bloomberg's run during its brief, anti-climactic lifespan, but I've never quite seen it and just struck as a deeply cynical, vainglorious move by someone with more money than sense. To have then taken the stage looking unprepared and out his depth just confirmed it for me. Howard Schultz, with just a little less self-awareness. Good riddance to a sideshow.

    and on top of all that which I agree with he is not even a Democrat. He may try and call himself one but the guy is to the right of the already center right corporate Democrats like Buuttigeg and Biden. I am not a fan of Biden given how much is he part of the corporate Democratic world that has helped foist Friedmanite disaster capitalism on so many but I agree with him 100% every time he clearly states Bloomberg is not a Democrat.


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    #2919
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,627 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    I've no idea why Elizabeth warren is still in the race. I mean it was a tough ask for her to get the nomination anyway but she came third in Massachusetts where she is the senior senator for that state. I mean Bernie sanders won his home state and Biden will likely win his home state of Delaware but even given the way she couldn't even get second in her own state.

    It's really a weird thing with the USA in that they go on about equality and all that yet for the so called greatest democracy in the world it's never had a female president or Vice President whereas many counties have had female prime ministers and presidents for years.


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    #2920
    vetinari
    Registered Users Posts: 1,025 ✭✭✭vetinari


    Biden is now the clear favorite.
    I think it's important to acknowledge the "hand on the scales" effect from the DNC presumably pressuring Pete and Amy to drop out.
    It should be somewhat expected that if his biggest moderate rivals drop out at the last second and endorse him that he does well in the subsequent primaries. In an Irish context, if Fianna Fail declared two days before the election that their supporters should vote Fine Gael, you would expect Fine Gael to do really well.

    My worry is that it will turn off a lot of Bernie's core vote and that they don't turn up in November.
    It's now looking pretty good for Trump getting relected.


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    #2921
    Englo
    Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭Englo


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    .
    It's now looking pretty good for Trump getting relected.

    Just want to put this on record here and now, if at any point after the two conventions it begins to look very bad for Trump, there will be no election. It will be cancelled under the pretense of some sort of national emergency, with no specified date for the next election given.

    And the like of Trump fanatics who might scoff sarcastically at the notion will be the very first to cheer it on in this very thread as a victory for democracy if it does come to that.


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    #2922
    rossie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 11,342 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    vetinari wrote: »
    Biden is now the clear favorite.
    I think it's important to acknowledge the "hand on the scales" effect from the DNC presumably pressuring Pete and Amy to drop out.
    It should be somewhat expected that if his biggest moderate rivals drop out at the last second and endorse him that he does well in the subsequent primaries. In an Irish context, if Fianna Fail declared two days before the election that their supporters should vote Fine Gael, you would expect Fine Gael to do really well.

    My worry is that it will turn off a lot of Bernie's core vote and that they don't turn up in November.
    It's now looking pretty good for Trump getting relected.

    He walked South Carolina with them in the race and Bloomberg spending half a billion. Biden has spent nothing lets not forget. For all the talk that the DNC was behind him he was on the verge of elimination 2 weeks ago.

    Not sure why it's looking pretty good for Trump. Biden comfortably won Minnesota so should take Michigan, Wisconsin. Those are states Clinton lost to Sanders in 16 and Michigan/Wisconsin were key losses to Trump.

    Biden as Dem nominee means North Carolina is now in play, no other Dem would have gotten close. Also means Florida is possible. I think only Bloomberg out of entire Dem field could have won Florida.


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    #2923
    Englo
    Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭Englo


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    I've no idea why Elizabeth warren is still in the race.

    Its becoming more than a little curious alright, and is doing significant damage to her popularity with her base while not really making inroads to the corporate side of the party (and its base).

    I might be wrong, but another week or two without dropping out could kill her political career, which would be a shame because she really is quite a good politician.

    The last two months have been as bad for her as anyone I can remember in terms of where she was and where she is now for quite some time, maybe Howard "yeehaw!" Dean.

    She may be able to maneuver out of it yet, but it's a real sticky situation she has left herself in and getting wallpaper by Bloomberg (never even mind sanders or Biden) while losing her home state is a pretty string testament to that.


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    #2924
    Englo
    Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭Englo


    rossie1977 wrote: »
    Not sure why it's looking pretty good for Trump. Biden comfortably won Minnesota so should take Michigan, Wisconsin. Those are states Clinton lost to Sanders in 16 and Michigan/Wisconsin were key losses to Trump.

    This is a really important point, and surprised me a little last night. I feel sanders is far better poised to communicate with the likes of rust belters than Biden, while Biden is better suited for the southern States that the democrats are never going to win many of at all, which is a serious problem for the democrats. But Biden beating sanders in some of these states last night is what caught me maybe the most off guard, and hopefully translates to the general.


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    #2925
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    briany wrote: »
    The fact is, I think - the polls are not going to accurately reflect what will happen in these primaries. It's bearing out that they've already been quite misleading. What's probably happening is that there is a lot of quiet Biden support going on - a sort of political dark matter that can't really be quantified by pollsters. Combine this with the fact that younger people just will not put their words into actions and actually vote, things looks decidedly shaky for Bernie.

    For anyone else you'd say this was still an extremely tight race, but Sanders needs momentum in order not to give the Democratic establishment more of an excuse to oppose him. Any faltering leaves him prone.
    Most polls couldn't pick up what was going on before yesterday because they were conducted before Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out. That doesn't mean those polls were wrong because polls are a snapshot in time of constantly shifting preferences.

    But there were some quick polls done during/in the immediate aftermath of Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropping out and they did pick up a big movement towards Biden.

    Polling averages are usually the things to look out for but in a rapidly changing environment as has happened over the last four or five days the polling averages don't really cut it because they're slower to move.


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    #2926
    The Phantom Jipper
    Registered Users Posts: 879 ✭✭✭The Phantom Jipper


    Perhaps the greatest tragedy of all is that we won't now get to see Warren demolish Trump in the debates like she did with Bloomberg.


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    #2927
    SimonTemplar
    Registered Users Posts: 2,815 ✭✭✭SimonTemplar


    The next debate is on March 15th. If Warren drops out before that, it'll be Sanders vs Biden one on one.


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    #2928
    vetinari
    Registered Users Posts: 1,025 ✭✭✭vetinari


    rossie1977 wrote: »
    He walked South Carolina with them in the race and Bloomberg spending half a billion. Biden has spent nothing lets not forget. For all the talk that the DNC was behind him he was on the verge of elimination 2 weeks ago.

    Not sure why it's looking pretty good for Trump. Biden comfortably won Minnesota so should take Michigan, Wisconsin. Those are states Clinton lost to Sanders in 16 and Michigan/Wisconsin were key losses to Trump.

    Biden as Dem nominee means North Carolina is now in play, no other Dem would have gotten close. Also means Florida is possible. I think only Bloomberg out of entire Dem field could have won Florida.

    He won Minnesota in large part due to Klobuchar's endorsement. That was huge for him. The concern is about voter enthusiasm levels. The main plus point for Biden's campaign is that he's not Trump. If the election was say in 3 weeks, I think he could pull it off. Having months of coverage of him is going to wear him down though. I can see a similar outcome to Hillary where turnout is down and Trump sneaks in again.


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    #2929
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,282 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    The Phantom Jipper wrote: »
    Perhaps the greatest tragedy of all is that we won't now get to see Warren demolish Trump in the debates like she did with Bloomberg.

    Lets be honest, that was never going to happen. The re-cut videos that gave her victories are like adding a laugh track to american sitcoms, she only wins if you cut it and hype it in such a way that it says she does.


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    #2930
    Englo
    Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭Englo


    The Phantom Jipper wrote: »
    Perhaps the greatest tragedy of all is that we won't now get to see Warren demolish Trump in the debates like she did with Bloomberg.

    So what true but it wouldn't make any difference. Clinton eviscerated Trump in the 2016 debates, but for his sycophants "no puppet, no puppet, you're the puppet!" are the genius words of a demi God who can never be wrong.

    Because one is a cult, while the other is a political party.


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    #2931
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    Englo wrote: »
    This is a really important point, and surprised me a little last night. I feel sanders is far better poised to communicate with the likes of rust belters than Biden, while Biden is better suited for the southern States that the democrats are never going to win many of at all, which is a serious problem for the democrats. But Biden beating sanders in some of these states last night is what caught me maybe the most off guard, and hopefully translates to the general.

    I guess there's a stereotype most people have in their heads of the sort of voters you need to win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan Wisconsin and to extent Minnesota, and especially since Hillary Clinton didn't win them in enough numbers.

    It's the Joe the plumber stereotype or Joe who works or used to work in a steel factory or a car factory, or Joe who worked with hiss hands at some other job which doesn't exist anymore. White men between 40 and 70 who like Bruce Springsteen. The stereotype that has been increasingly prominent in US elections for the last 15-20 years. The demographic which Michael Moore claims to have a special insight into.

    Sanders' politics is designed to appeal to that demographic. Biden appeals to them by virtue of what he is. He's called Joe and he's from Scranton and he says he's a union man.

    Warren's politics were squarely aimed at that demographic too - but sadly for her potential appeal to this stereotype, she's a woman. Buttigieg being from Indiana, and Mayor of South Bend, the very epitome of the rust belt stereotype, was one reason he gained momentum. Klobuchar is from Minnesota.

    Every Democrat and even the primary voters have been obsessed with this stereotype this time.

    There's a danger though that they may end up fighting the last war, not the next one. Younger voters will turn out in a presidential election if you give them something to turn out for. But what is Biden going to give the younger and progressive voters in order to get them to turn out?


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    #2932
    The Phantom Jipper
    Registered Users Posts: 879 ✭✭✭The Phantom Jipper


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    Lets be honest, that was never going to happen. The re-cut videos that gave her victories are like adding a laugh track to american sitcoms, she only wins if you cut it and hype it in such a way that it says she does.

    I've watched many of the debates in full, rather than watching the highlights. The highlights can make for essential viewing but she's a consistently good debater outside of those aswell. Trump may have some qualities but debating isn't one of them. It's a moot point at this stage but it goes without saying that a Harvard law professor would have little trouble taking Trump apart over the course of a 2 hour debate.


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    #2933
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    Englo wrote: »
    So what true but it wouldn't make any difference. Clinton eviscerated Trump in the 2016 debates, but for his sycophants "no puppet, no puppet, you're the puppet!" are the genius words of a demi God who can never be wrong.

    Because one is a cult, while the other is a political party.
    It's difficult, pretty much impossible, to eviscerate a troll leading a cult because a troll leading a cult has no shame and can't be shamed. The troll exists in a different world, a reality-free world. They glory in their scumminess.

    Bloomberg may be worth a hell of a lot more money than Trump, but he isn't a troll, he exists in a reality-based world, which is why he decided to apologise for stop and frisk. When Warren eviscerated Bloomberg, you could sense Bloomberg's embarrassment inside. It was Bloomberg's clear embarrassment that made the moment and made the attack work. If an audience cheers on such an evisceration, the effect is magnified.

    The reason Bloomberg so clearly paid a load of the audience at the second debate he was in was because he knew Warren would go after him again. She did, and said pretty much the same things. But the difference this time is that when she went after him, Bloomberg's paid audience members all booed. When Bloomberg responded, they cheered. And that makes a huge difference to the casual viewer - if you were following Twitter during both times Warren attacked Bloomberg, the reaction to her attack in the first debate was pretty much univerally positive, whereas the reaction in the second was quite negative. The problem for Bloomberg was that he was already fecked after the first attack, which killed his campaign stone dead there and then.

    But Trump cannot be shamed in such an environment. He won't do the debates because he relies on adoring, cheering crowds, like all demagogues. In the unlikely event he did do the debates, he'd make sure the crowd is packed to the rafters with his supporters.


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    #2934
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,020 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Englo wrote: »
    Just want to put this on record here and now, if at any point after the two conventions it begins to look very bad for Trump, there will be no election. It will be cancelled under the pretense of some sort of national emergency, with no specified date for the next election given.

    And the like of Trump fanatics who might scoff sarcastically at the notion will be the very first to cheer it on in this very thread as a victory for democracy if it does come to that.

    Ha I never said Trump would win easily!

    I have said Biden would get stomped in 2024 by a Hawley type Republican but Biden will only be a 1 term president.

    I have never totally wrote him off and it would be foolish of Trump does.

    Yep the man is a mess , but clearly a lot of people have decided that beating Trump is more important than policy and whether the internet like it or not Biden is that man.

    He has a good chance as anyone .


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    #2935
    Hande hoche!
    Registered Users Posts: 7,514 ✭✭✭Hande hoche!


    sid waddell wrote: »
    It's difficult, pretty much impossible, to eviscerate a troll leading a cult because a troll leading a cult has no shame and can't be shamed. The troll exists in a different world, a reality-free world. They glory in their scumminess.

    Bloomberg may be worth a hell of a lot more money than Trump, but he isn't a troll, he exists in a reality-based world, which is why he decided to apologise for stop and frisk. When Warren eviscerated Bloomberg, you could sense Bloomberg's embarrassment inside. It was Bloomberg's clear embarrassment that made the moment and made the attack work. If an audience cheers on such an evisceration, the effect is magnified.

    The reason Bloomberg so clearly paid a load of the audience at the second debate he was in was because he knew Warren would go after him again. She did, and said pretty much the same things. But the difference this time is that when she went after him, Bloomberg's paid audience members all booed. When Bloomberg responded, they cheered. And that makes a huge difference to the casual viewer - if you were following Twitter during both times Warren attacked Bloomberg, the reaction to her attack in the first debate was pretty much univerally positive, whereas the reaction in the second was quite negative. The problem for Bloomberg was that he was already fecked after the first attack, which killed his campaign stone dead there and then.

    But Trump cannot be shamed in such an environment. He won't do the debates because he relies on adoring, cheering crowds, like all demagogues. In the unlikely event he did do the debates, he'd make sure the crowd is packed to the rafters with his supporters.

    Can't see him dodging the debates. He would at the least use it as an opportunity to get a few soundbites that sympathetic media would run with.
    Also it could potentially be against Joe Biden, hardly a Titan of debating.


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    #2936
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    Hande hoche! wrote: »
    Can't see him dodging the debates. He would at the least use it as an opportunity to get a few soundbites that sympathetic media would run with.
    Also it could potentially be against Joe Biden, hardly a Titan of debating.

    He definitely wouldn't have debated Bernie.

    There's more of a chance with Biden but I still think it's unlikely. A lot will depend on how Biden is performing under scrutiny and how the polls are going.

    I think Trump would have no fear of skipping the debates. His industrial bull**** machine will come up with a bull**** narrative for why he doesn't need to do them. Sure look at how the Tories spun Boris Johnson not doing the Andrew Neil interview. He'll probably throw a few picked journalists a bone with soft soap, choregraphed interviews and pretend it's "scrutiny".

    Trump's campaign will not be the campaign of a politician. It'll be the campaign of a naked demagogue.


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    #2937
    peddlelies
    Closed Accounts Posts: 840 ✭✭✭peddlelies


    sid waddell wrote: »
    He definitely wouldn't have debated Bernie.

    In your opinion. Trump is so eccentric I don't see any reason why he wouldn't have. Sanders talks a good game but is never pressed on how his ideas will work financially.

    These outlandish predictions of avoiding debates carry little weight on an internet forum because there's no accountability.


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    #2938
    Englo
    Registered Users Posts: 93 ✭✭Englo


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Ha I never said Trump would win easily!

    I have said Biden would get stomped in 2024 by a Hawley type Republican but Biden will only be a 1 term president.

    I have never totally wrote him off and it would be foolish of Trump does.

    Yep the man is a mess , but clearly a lot of people have decided that beating Trump is more important than policy and whether the internet like it or not Biden is that man.

    He has a good chance as anyone .

    Sorry for any mix up, I didn't mean to direct the post at you - your comment just sparked the reply is all. It's sometimes good to put this on record for when the type of Trump supporter who will happily and openly lie to prove their loyalty to Dear Leader, attempts to do so if it comes to it.

    Some lies and scumbaggery Trump will catch people off guard with from time to time, but by and large you can predict the man a million miles off, and can rest assured that his supporters will parrot whatever predictable thing his propaganda machine is vomiting out in response.

    It's going to be an interesting 6-8 months, that's for sure.


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    #2939
    namloc1980
    Registered Users Posts: 18,104 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    The Trump and Biden debates are going to be something else.


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    #2940
    AbusesToilets
    Registered Users Posts: 10,008 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    The Trump and Biden debates are going to be something else.

    Two old men with questionable mental health, stumbling through gaffe after after.


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    #2941
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    I'm tellin yis, watch Tulsi Gabbard. She's notched her one delegate for her zombie campaign with 102 votes in American Samoa and will be baying for inclusion to the next debate based on that, and when she doesn't get it, because the criteria will require more than a single delegate, she'll kick up a big fuss that the whole process is rigged.

    She ran purely as a spoiler in this campaign. Her constituents in Hawaii have her well figured out at this stage and the reason she didn't run for Congress this time was becasue she was being primaried and knew she'd lose.

    Whether it is as a spoiler third party candidate or as a talking head on Fox News, she will be only mad to sabotage Biden and hand the election to Trump.

    After Trump himself, she is the dodgiest person on the entire US political landscape, an absolute snake.


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