Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! read OP

gozunda · 02-03-2020 06:42PM

1641 wrote: »

This is from the website:
18. Who should be tested for COVID-19?
People who fit the ‘case definition’ of a possible case of COVID-19 should be tested for COVID-19. A case definition is a set of criteria which indicate that a person is at increased risk of having picked up an infectious disease. According to the Irish case definition, a possible case ofCOVID-19 is someone who has
possible exposure to a person with confirmed COVID-19 AND respiratory symptoms, as explained below:

1. Possible exposure to a person with confirmed COVID-19:
In the 14 days before the start of your symptoms you:

Were in close contact with a case of COVID-19;
OR

Were in an area with presumed ongoing community transmission of COVID-19
OR

Worked in or attended a health care facility where patients with COVID-19 were being treated

AND
2. Respiratory symptoms
Have a severe acute respiratory infection that needs to be treated in hospital and where your symptoms or radiology (x-ray/scan) results suggest that you have pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
OR

Have acute respiratory infection of any degree of severity including at least one of the following: fever, cough, shortness of breath
OR

Have fever of unknown cause with no other symptoms

...[/url]

^^^ This is where there are going to be significant problems.

At the start of the outbreak in Wuhan- only those who had been in the Fish Market were deemed eligible to be tested and therefore officially diagnosed. Unfortunately this caused untested cases which had no connection with the market to continue to infect others and the numbers of infected climbed rapidly.

Now we have the clowns here using similar restrictive criteria ie

Were in close contact with a case of COVID-19;
OR
Were in an area with presumed ongoing community transmission of COVID-19
OR
Worked in or attended a health care facility where patients with COVID-19 were being treated

The CDC have acknowledged that

There is an increasing number of countries with local or widespread local transmission around the world and in Europe that are exporting cases to unaffected areas.

These exportations have caused transmission in previously unaffected areas. The control measures have up to now been able to only slow the further spread, but not to stop it.

If health authorities here are going to continue to refuse to test those that do not meet all the above criteria - regardless whether they are presenting with symptoms of the infection - then we are going to see the growth of otherwise unexplained outbreaks as has happened in Italy.

darjeeling · 02-03-2020 06:43PM

The chance of eradicating this virus has gone, and now it's clearly going to spread globally.
It's just a question of how fast it will spread in each country, and that will be down to measures taken to restrict incoming travel from areas with epidemics - which will soon be a large part of the world - and contact between people within the country.

I now doubt we'll do a good job in the West of limiting spread because we're not going to put up with the adverse effects on the economy, on the education system, and on society in general.
And we're not used to and won't accept the loss of privacy and freedoms that would be required to stop it spreading, even if we had the technical preparation done.

So it becomes another circulating respiratory virus, with the worst effects seen during the first season - this one.
I think the final fatality rate is likely to be around 10x that of seasonal flu, which is to say around 1%.
That will mostly be borne by the elderly and those with significant pre-existing conditions.
We can at least hope for a vaccine before the 2nd time it comes around, and we can also expect a large proportion of us to have some immunity, having caught it this time.

When everything settles this will have been a huge test of global preparedness to cope with a newly-emerged highly transmissable disease.
We've seen how ineffective surveillance has been in detecting and preventing spread through international transport links.
That will be a major concern should we see a more lethal disease emerge in future - and we've already had three novel zoonotic coronaviruses in the last 20 years.

We've also seen how local transmission can be going on for weeks before health service surveillance systems pick up an increase in unexplained cases.
I suppose it is likely that a novel disease with higher fatality would be picked up earlier, though I don't know if that's very reassuring.

Countries that have been best prepared have successfully kept transmission to a minimum, but it comes at a cost.
Singapore was very vigilant in detecting incoming cases early on, while elsewhere an estimated 2/3 of Wuhan-infected international air passengers were undetected.
How much are we prepared to spend on upgrading our detection systems?

Singapore also uses enforced quarantine and, for each case, publishes the person's age, sex, country of origin, workplace and residential area for all to see.
Would people here be prepared for that level of coercion and intrusion, or would they prefer to have greater freedom and privacy with the consequent higher risk of catching a novel virus?

Unearthly · 02-03-2020 06:44PM

gozunda wrote: »

^^^ This is where there are going to be significant problems.

At the start of the outbreak in Wuhan- only those who had been in the Fish Market were deemed eligible to be tested and therefore officially diagnosed. Unfortunately this caused untested cases which had no connection with the market to continue to infect others and the numbers of infected climbed rapidly.

Now we have the clowns here using similar restrictive criteria ie
Were in close contact with a case of COVID-19;
OR

Were in an area with presumed ongoing community transmission of COVID-19
OR

Worked in or attended a health care facility where patients with COVID-19 were being treated

The CDC have acknowledged that

If heskth authorities here are going to continue to refuse test those that do not meet all the above criteria - regardless whether they are presenting with symptoms of the infection - then we are going to see the growth of otherwise unexplained outbreaks as has happened in Italy.

Agreed. You can see some of the same mistakes being made all over again

cnocbui · 02-03-2020 06:44PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

I wonder is it about the extra red dot in this picture:

https://twitter.com/kbutler95/status/1234448068000600067?s=21

Look at the screen on the far left.

The Red dot on the left is roughly where Limerick is, but the other is in roughly the centre of the country and not where Dublin is, so maybe the dots don't mark the location of cases.

ardinn · 02-03-2020 06:45PM

Looks like it but doesnt show the dublin one!

maybe its a confirmed "today" picture?

88212716_595940910957170_2865279159695835136_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=NUsYYvj2LcAAX9kuGKU&_nc_ht=scontent-dub4-1.xx&oh=e344d9b13555be8ad94c1705c3fc3ece&oe=5EBAC1E1

88212716_595940910957170_2865279159695835136_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=NUsYYvj2LcAAX9kuGKU&_nc_ht=scontent-dub4-1.xx&oh=e344d9b13555be8ad94c1705c3fc3ece&oe=5EBAC1E1

babybuilder · 02-03-2020 06:47PM

notobtuse wrote: »

Apparently the US federal government have been issuing coronaviurs test kits with faulty components that produced inconclusive results. And many here want to turn over our entire healthcare system to the US government?

Given to 30 countries world wide

jam_mac_jam · 02-03-2020 06:48PM

blanch152 wrote: »

And this is the problem of having non-experts talking about the issue.

Much prefer to hear what Dr. Holohan has to say on behalf of the expert group.

So go and listen to him so. It's a discussion board, we can discuss.

Fr_Dougal · 02-03-2020 06:48PM

iguana wrote: »

Looks like Limerick. I’ve heard of a suspected case here awaiting results so won’t be surprised if it is.

Looks like Limerick alright. Sure time will tell.

froog · 02-03-2020 06:49PM

looking at the hopkins dashboard it seems quite likely that the virus mutated to a less harmful form in china outside of wuhan. the death rate drops pretty dramatically in every single region in china outside wuhan. this does follow evolutionary thinking on viruses, as people carrying milder strains are much more likely to pass on the virus than the deadlier strain.

this is interesting for two reasons: one there is likely two strains of the virus in the world right now with vastly different risk levels. from reading country timelines it seems italy and iran got the deadlier wuhan strain unfortunately (first cases directly linked to wuhan). i haven't checked other countries yet. ireland's came from italy so quite possibly the wuhan strain too.

secondly it shows that mutating to a less harmful form is quite probable (it's already happened once in the country it started in). what we have seen happen in china may be replicated all over the world - initial cluster of relatively high mortality rate, and spreading out to much less harmful.

i will looking at italy very closely over the next few weeks to see if the pattern repeats.

i'm not any kind of doctor by the way, just my own thoughts.

wakka12 · 02-03-2020 06:49PM

Or maybe the dots indicate isolation centres, or something, it could literally be anything

Ipso · 02-03-2020 06:49PM

cnocbui wrote: »

The Red dot on the left is roughly where Limerick is, but the other is in roughly the centre of the country and not where Dublin is, so maybe the dots don't mark the location of cases.

Does anyone know what the dots mean?

antodeco · 02-03-2020 06:50PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Looks like Limerick alright. Sure time will tell.

Maybe its a new online national lottery game and you have to scratch off all those red dots. Uncover 3 skull and bones and you get a trip to Iran.

igCorcaigh · 02-03-2020 06:52PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Looks like Limerick alright. Sure time will tell.

What time is the HSE update?

Fr_Dougal · 02-03-2020 06:52PM

antodeco wrote: »

Maybe its a new online national lottery game and you have to scratch off all those red dots. Uncover 3 skull and bones and you get a trip to Iran.

Would be better than a trip to Limerick. 😬

Lackey · 02-03-2020 06:53PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Is this like the Tipp case?

If it is the mods will have to rethink the banning
or start a 'speculation' thread

ThePopehimself · 02-03-2020 06:53PM

Wibbs wrote: »

Hopefully it's just a statistical error, or that the areas it hit are more likely to be made up of the retired and elderly demographic(as small villages and towns in that neck of the woods can be) and that's what's throwing the stats. The main worry would be it's mutated to become more virulent, like the Spanish flu did over time(the first wave of that was more like an "average" flu, when it mutated later in the year it was much more deadly).

They are also doing a lot of testing. The Lombardy region in particular, was asked to ease off on testing non-symptomatic cases. Which, reluctantly, they have now agreed to do.

hurikane · 02-03-2020 06:55PM

blanch152 wrote: »

And this is the problem of having non-experts talking about the issue.

Much prefer to hear what Dr. Holohan has to say on behalf of the expert group.

Can’t really avoid that if you’re going to read this thread though?

odyssey06 · 02-03-2020 06:55PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Or maybe the dots indicate isolation centres, or something, it could literally be anything

Pointers for neutron bomb strikes. It's the only way to be sure.
The jets are in the air as we speak...

mlem123 · 02-03-2020 06:55PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

I wonder is it about the extra red dot in this picture:

https://twitter.com/kbutler95/status/1234448068000600067?s=21

Look at the screen on the far left.

Surely the guy who tweeted it would be fired if it’s confidential info he’s leaked? Can people be that stupid?

Snow Garden · 02-03-2020 06:56PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Is this like the Tipp case?

No, this person was stabbed by the virus. Different shark.

ThePopehimself · 02-03-2020 06:57PM

Ipso wrote: »

Does anyone know what the dots mean?

They mark confirmed cases in various countries.

Downlinz · 02-03-2020 06:57PM

cnocbui wrote: »

The Red dot on the left is roughly where Limerick is, but the other is in roughly the centre of the country and not where Dublin is, so maybe the dots don't mark the location of cases.

Dublin was never officially confirmed though, only the "east".

cameramonkey · 02-03-2020 06:58PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Or maybe the dots indicate isolation centres, or something, it could literally be anything

They may indicate suspected cases but not positives.

Ninthlife · 02-03-2020 06:58PM

Look at the dot for N. Ireland, that seems smaller than those below in the south. Is it clusters of dots :0

TomSweeney · 02-03-2020 07:00PM

megabomberman wrote: »

Very very promising.

Hopefully, still about 7 hours left in the day for them to report more ...

DrumSteve wrote: »

They've also got more recovered than serious for the first time.

Good too!!

wadacrack wrote: »

The death rate is alarmingly high in Italy

I'd imagine as it's still early days in the count, its at about 2.5%, at the first spike 8/9 days ago it was at 13% - was really worrying....

Yurt! wrote: »

The death rate is indeed very high in Italy. Twice the amount of deaths of South Korea with as half as many cases.

South Korea probably closest to the real number in all the country stats ...so I'm not surprised death rate there is one of the lowest ..

mlem123 · 02-03-2020 07:00PM

Ninthlife wrote: »

Look at the dot for N. Ireland, that seems smaller than those below in the south. Is it clusters of dots :0

Think it’s driving you dotty

Ninthlife · 02-03-2020 07:01PM

mlem123 wrote: »

Think it’s driving you dotty

Dot would be correct

is_that_so · 02-03-2020 07:01PM

Ninthlife wrote: »

Look at the dot for N. Ireland, that seems smaller than those below in the south. Is it clusters of dots :0

And we've now gone completely mad, interpreting the size of dots on a screen!

Loafing Oaf · 02-03-2020 07:01PM

TomSweeney wrote: »

South Korea probably closest to the real number in all the country stats ...so I'm not surprised death rate there is one of the lowest ..

Yeah if Italy has eased off on the testing God knows how many infected people they have walking round

Sober Crappy Chemis · 02-03-2020 07:01PM

Red dots represent the Lidl stores that have run out of pasta.

Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

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Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! read OP