General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

is_that_so · 26-02-2020 07:45PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Jennifer_Bray/status/1232730669148753920

All a bit raw, blowing off steam. We'll see the lie of the land in a few weeks, once those doing the rounds have completed them to no good effect.

Bishop of hope · 26-02-2020 09:16PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What happened to 'stepping up for the good of the country'? Sudden attack of the 'me fein's'.

But sure if they do they'll be booed of the pitch by the likes of your good self.
Sinn fein have more of a mandate than anyone to step up and pull something together, but they've been rejected by their own side even.
They've all painted themselves into corners I think and the paint is slowdrying, but when it eventually does they might all get stuck together at the door.

FrancieBrady · 26-02-2020 09:28PM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

But sure if they do they'll be booed of the pitch by the likes of your good self.
Sinn fein have more of a mandate than anyone to step up and pull something together, but they've been rejected by their own side even.
They've all painted themselves into corners I think and the paint is slowdrying, but when it eventually does they might all get stuck together at the door.

I booed them off the pitch in the election. Why would I be happy when both of them merge to give me a super dose of what I rejected?

L1011 · 26-02-2020 09:30PM

Water John wrote: »

There are two groups of Ind TDs TMK. The Mattie McGrath one is called Rural Inds what is the other one called? Think Fitzmaurice, Grealish, Lowry in it, also Tobin sort of.

Regional Group, I think.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Three, actually - Connolly, Pringle, Joan Collins, McNamara, Harkin and Fitzmaurice formed one this week.

Absolute hatstand mix there, and the expectation since multiple groups were allowed was that the groups would be semi-cohesive. Expectation is not a requirement of course.

When we could only have one TG, you had the furthest left and right represented in the Dail in it at times.

There wasn't even enough TDs to form one in the 07 Dail initially - you needed 7 then - as Bev Flynn didn't join it as she was intending to (and did) rejoin FF, JHR didn't join it, Lowry wouldn't have been let in, and the Greens & PDs were in Government - leaving just SF with 4 and 2 other Independents.

is_that_so · 27-02-2020 09:50AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I booed them off the pitch in the election. Why would I be happy when both of them merge to give me a super dose of what I rejected?

We often get what people say they didn't vote for. We only have control over our own vote, not that of others and certainly not over how the numbers shape up. If the FF/FG/Green option can work out a deal then that will be our government and there's no point railing against it.

mr_fegelien · 27-02-2020 05:10PM

What was Fianna Fails main message during the election? Was it siding with Fine Gael or attacking them like Mary Lou was?

James Brown · 27-02-2020 07:28PM

is_that_so wrote: »

We often get what people say they didn't vote for. We only have control over our own vote, not that of others and certainly not over how the numbers shape up. If the FF/FG/Green option can work out a deal then that will be our government and there's no point railing against it.

Agreed. We get what we get and we should give what ever that from is a chance while hoping for the best. I'd even give individual ministers a honeymoon period.

An Ciarraioch · 29-02-2020 11:11PM

SF, predictably, with almost as much support as FF and FG combined - would probably win around 70 seats in a fresh election:

https://twitter.com/colincoyle/status/1233863733874774016

L1011 · 01-03-2020 12:15AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

SF, predictably, with almost as much support as FF and FG combined - would probably win around 70 seats in a fresh election:

https://twitter.com/colincoyle/status/1233863733874774016

Can you imagine who they'd have to drag out as candidates in that scenario?

SDs would be down to 2 or 3 and S/PBP probably down to 2 in that scenario due to SF transfers not going anywhere else due to sufficient candidates. Probably also hammer left and centrist independents that benefited.

FF, FG, Greens, Labour would all have losses too but the other ~90 has to come from somewhere!

Bishop of hope · 01-03-2020 12:18AM

L1011 wrote: »

Can you imagine who they'd have to drag out as candidates in that scenario?

SDs would be down to 2 or 3 and S/PBP probably down to 2 in that scenario due to SF transfers not going anywhere else due to sufficient candidates. Probably also hammer left and centrist independents that benefited.

It might hasten the mighty coalition now?

L1011 · 01-03-2020 12:24AM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

It might hasten the mighty coalition now?

Absolutely.

While FF and FG both haven't got much left to lose; they would still go down further in seats and you could end up with what remains of SD/SPBP/GP/Lab just abstaining on the Taoiseach vote and Mary Lou sailing across on the first day with those numbers - and then having to bargain vote by vote the way the SNP have often had to.

eire4 · 01-03-2020 06:15AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

SF, predictably, with almost as much support as FF and FG combined - would probably win around 70 seats in a fresh election:

https://twitter.com/colincoyle/status/1233863733874774016

I suspect we will see FF and FG getting into some serious talks now looking at those numbers.

WishUWereHere · 01-03-2020 12:17PM

eire4 wrote: »

I suspect we will see FF and FG getting into some serious talks now looking at those numbers.

While I would agree with You E4, that would mean we are back where we were prior to the election, which is not what was voted for by the electorate.

Hard to see anything else materialising mind, unless we have another GE. And if that's the case, I only hope that those who thought the Shinners are the answer realise that they have presented us with more questions than answers:

Like

1, WHO is pulling the strings here? Not Mary Lou, or then why is Adams on the negotiating team? And why was it him who was interviewed by RTÉ on the Sunday when the election results were coming in?
2 How many more Paul Quinns are out there?
3.We going to hear 'Up the Ra' again when a SF td is elected? I don't think this kind of action is beneficial to anyone.

Water John · 01-03-2020 12:28PM

This poll might give FG TDs toying with the notion of going to the country a second time, a good rethink.
As my OH would say, FG need to build a bridge and get over it.

is_that_so · 01-03-2020 01:33PM

We're a good way off any hint of government and May might be the the endgame as there will most likely be a line by line agreement. It could all fall apart too. I don't think any party would use a poll to influence their decisions.

Water John · 01-03-2020 01:57PM

Oh yes they would, Political parties live by polls and focus groups.

is_that_so · 01-03-2020 02:03PM

Water John wrote: »

Oh yes they would, Political parties live by polls and focus groups.

My point is if they can't do a deal they can't do a deal no matter what a poll says and both FF and FG will take their chances in a new election.

fergiesfolly · 01-03-2020 03:32PM

If between them( FF, FG) they have nearly half the electorate voting for them. And with a third party(GP/SD) can form a government. Why is it undemocratic and undermining the will of the people to do so?
Why is it that only SF have a devine right to form a government?

Roger_007 · 01-03-2020 05:28PM

fergiesfolly wrote: »

If between them( FF, FG) they have nearly half the electorate voting for them. And with a third party(GP/SD) can form a government. Why is it undemocratic and undermining the will of the people to do so?
Why is it that only SF have a devine right to form a government?

Don’t be fooled. SF know that they can’t form a ‘government of the left’, but they have to give the impression that they are trying to do so. What they really want is another election but they have to pretend that they don’t.
When, inevitably, another election is called within a year from now, they can claim that they did their best to form a government and they will, ‘reluctantly’, agree to a new election and seek seek a stronger mandate.
It’s a strategy that might work for them.

ThunbergsAreGo · 01-03-2020 05:32PM

fergiesfolly wrote: »

If between them( FF, FG) they have nearly half the electorate voting for them. And with a third party(GP/SD) can form a government. Why is it undemocratic and undermining the will of the people to do so?
Why is it that only SF have a devine right to form a government?

It's not, we live in a democracy, not in a place where those who shout loudest win - thankfully.

Ireland will get the government it deserves, regardless of who it is.

An Ciarraioch · 01-03-2020 11:03PM

Interesting development, even if ultimately symbolic - Ógra FF reject a coalition with FG:

https://twitter.com/OgraFiannaFail/status/1234197693620260864

L1011 · 02-03-2020 12:33AM

Labour Youth opposed going in with FG in 2011. It means nothing, except possibly some resignations.

Grab All Association · 02-03-2020 03:22AM

Michael Martin has betold tales to these newly elected FF TD’s of nepotism appointments to state boards, bribes and other perks of ministerial positions.

They had run out of relatives and friends that they were almost appointing their family pets to boards of NRA, arts council etc

is_that_so · 02-03-2020 09:09AM

fergiesfolly wrote: »

If between them( FF, FG) they have nearly half the electorate voting for them. And with a third party(GP/SD) can form a government. Why is it undemocratic and undermining the will of the people to do so?
Why is it that only SF have a divine right to form a government?

It's the tyranny of numbers and a claim that they "won" the election. In that context the spin is aided by the general cluelessness of the electorate about the challenges of government formation and the wrongheaded idea that it goes against democracy if it doesn't mirror how votes were cast.

WishUWereHere · 10-05-2020 12:47PM

Just watching The Week In Politics.

My oh my, but Irish politics is one BIG mess. Seems IF this bunch do form a government it certainly won't be lasting long. Also I wonder just how safe is ryans leadership?

charlie14 · 10-05-2020 01:08PM

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Just watching The Week In Politics.

My oh my, but Irish politics is one BIG mess. Seems IF this bunch do form a government it certainly won't be lasting long. Also I wonder just how safe is ryans leadership?

The Greens at the minute remind me of Brendan Behan`s quote of any Irish republicans meeting where the first item on the agenda would be the split

WishUWereHere · 10-05-2020 01:13PM

charlie14 wrote: »

The Greens at the minute remind me of Brendan Behan`s quote of any Irish republicans meeting where the first item on the agenda would be the split

LOL, Good one!!

There's a movie doing the rounds on one of the Sony/TCM channels at the moment - Sleeping with The Enemy. Either of FFG jump into bed with the greens and this movie's title springs to mind.

Also, me being a lifelong Labour supporter but NEVER support them ever again after the way gilmaore and burton ( in particular) turned their ideals purely on power hungry mania, i somehow think the greens are basically following in liebours footsteps.

charlie14 · 10-05-2020 01:18PM

WishUWereHere wrote: »

LOL, Good one!!

There's a movie doing the rounds on one of the Sony/TCM channels at the moment - Sleeping with The Enemy. Either of FFG jump into bed with the greens and this movie's title springs to mind.

Also, me being a lifelong Labour supporter but NEVER support them ever again after the way gilmaore and burton ( in particular) turned their ideals purely on power hungry mania, i somehow think the greens are basically following in liebours footsteps.

A Labour voter myself until the 2011 general election. Never again for exactly the same reasons

WishUWereHere · 10-05-2020 03:55PM

charlie14 wrote: »

A Labour voter myself until the 2011 general election. Never again for exactly the same reasons

I have put my faith in the SD's 'hands for the present. I am aware they effed up with that councillor in Blanchardstown ( I think ). But will give them another chance to see what they are made of. I do think Murphy & Shorthall are good politicians, also glad that dud Donnelly left them, they have far better credentials without him.

Whatever happens, interesting times ahead.

WishUWereHere · 10-05-2020 07:05PM

Also, who the hell is Pippa Hackett?

What is her role in the greens?

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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