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new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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Comments

  • #8402
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Italy going full on CCP

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231351939633471488

    And with good cause.


  • #8403
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,279 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Situation is bad when you need to take such measures.

    Hopefully they can contain it because this is our doorstep now.


  • #8404
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,199 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Hubei Update

    New Deaths - 96
    New Confirmed - 630
    Total Confirmed - 64,084

    Serious/Critical - 10,698‬

    In before BNO


  • #8405
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,030 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Italy going full on CCP

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231351939633471488

    They are realising they are weeks late about taking this seriously so have to take pretty draconian but neccessary action just like every other european government is about to come to understand.

    The WHO have a lot to answer for.


  • #8406
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Situation is bad when you need to take such measures.

    Hopefully they can contain it because this is our doorstep now.

    It's the only option they have. Imagine the chaos if it reaches Rome and takes hold. It has kicked the living sh1t out of the Chinese economy and it's only getting going. This is 100% the correct approach


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  • #8407
    YFlyer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,713 ✭✭✭YFlyer


    fritzelly wrote: »
    If the host was different then it could change again - animal to human to animal and back to human again - look at the common flu, a few variations but it never mutates to any degree where it changes how severe it is. So this new virus could go one of 3 ways
    But I'm no epidemiologist so could be wrong.

    I'm not an epidemiologist either. Just wondering how the virus in one human host could mutate the same or similar to the virus in other human hosts elsewhere.


  • #8408
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,089 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Ok. So let’s say for one minute the virus is gonna spread everywhere. Some say it won’t some say it will. I just don’t know, but let’s play devils advocate and say it spreads to every country.

    What does that mean?
    What age groups are most at risk? 70+ With underlying risks, or are we saying otherwise healthy 30+ are at risk?
    Until we know the answer to this we are essentially pissing against the wind.


  • #8409
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,030 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Hubei Update

    New Deaths - 96
    New Confirmed - 630
    Total Confirmed - 64,084

    Serious/Critical - 10,698‬

    In before BNO

    Looks like this may hopefully be the Hubei peak and all it took was 3-4 week of total self isolation, could we manage to do the same?


  • #8410
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,199 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    VinLieger wrote: »
    Looks like this may hopefully be the Hubei peak and all it took was 3-4 week of total self isolation, could we manage to do the same?

    Self isolation is only really effective at slowing down the virus.
    What happens when you release the lockdown? You could still have carriers then it all blows up again
    Been a good few reports about isolation not working


  • #8411
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,030 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Ok. So let’s say for one minute the virus is gonna spread everywhere. Some say it won’t some say it will. I just don’t know, but let’s play devils advocate and say it spreads to every country.

    What does that mean?
    What age groups are most at risk? 70+ With underlying risks, or are we saying otherwise healthy 30+ are at risk?
    Until we know the answer to this we are essentially pissing against the wind.

    The standard groups are most at risk, immuno compromised and the elderly, good news is kids so far seem to be pretty resilient. However there are also reports of young(20s,30s) supposedly perfectly healthy people dying too, however this may simply be due to the intense and hands on treatment regime required and the hospitals in hubei being too overrun to provide this level of care.

    We wont really know till this is all over though to be honest.


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  • #8412
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    VinLieger wrote: »
    Looks like this may hopefully be the Hubei peak and all it took was 3-4 week of total self isolation, could we manage to do the same?

    I wouldn't beleive the official figures for a minute but let's throw common sense out the window for a minute and say it's accurate imagine what 3-4 weeks of self isolation for a city the size of Dublin would do to our economy, or London to the UK economy etc... and that's before we even realise we haven't got the will to stop a group of thugs racing horses down a motorway nevermind lockdown a city.

    We also don't have the know how or work ethic to build the required hospitals within weeks if needed.


  • #8413
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Ok. So let’s say for one minute the virus is gonna spread everywhere. Some say it won’t some say it will.

    Can you let us know who is saying it won't as I need some relief lol


  • #8414
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,199 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    YFlyer wrote: »
    I'm not an epidemiologist either. Just wondering how the virus in one human host could mutate the same or similar to the virus in other human hosts elsewhere.

    I guess because the cells they infect are the same for everyone so mutations follow the same pattern, whereas in animals they can behave differently and infect the animal differently and may attach to different cells helping the mutation take a worse or less worse turn.
    Tried looking it up but cannot find anything explaining why the common cold for example doesn't turn in to something beyond a runny nose and sore throat

    Any virologists on Boards?


  • #8415
    s7ryf3925pivug
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,999 ✭✭✭s7ryf3925pivug


    The Guardian said that it is stable and not given to mutating. Therefore I don't think mutation is something worth worrying about at this point.

    I think the same form of the virus is infecting humans and animals. One thing they are advising is to cook animal food fully and to be extra careful with the raw product because they don't know what animals might carry it.


  • #8416
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,199 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    For all the bio-weapon/release virus conspiracy theorists out there, here's something to quench your thirst

    https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

    Disclaimer
    I do not in any way endorse anything written in the NY Post


  • #8417
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,030 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »
    The Guardian said that it is stable and not given to mutating. Therefore I don't think mutation is something worth worrying about at this point.

    ****ing morons, 2 days ago Italy only had 3 cases.... We dont know anything about this virus to be able to say nything ofnthe sort for certain


  • #8418
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,089 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    VinLieger wrote: »
    The standard groups are most at risk, immuno compromised and the elderly, good news is kids so far seem to be pretty resilient. However there are also reports of young(20s,30s) supposedly perfectly healthy people dying too, however this may simply be due to the intense and hands on treatment regime required and the hospitals in hubei being too overrun to provide this level of care.

    We wont really know till this is all over though to be honest.

    Thanks.
    This is the third time I’ve asked this particular question since the middle of jan.
    seems to me no one know how bad this damn thing is. We can’t depend on China’s numbers and we can’t generate an at risk group from the data as the data is all over the place.
    We are hearing about 20’s 30’s dying because areas are overwhelmed, but this is hearsay.
    What hard evidence do we have that these people are either an outlyer and not the norm or fair game as much as 70+ Age group cases


  • #8419
    Call Me Jimmy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭Call Me Jimmy


    fritzelly wrote: »

    Any virologists on Boards?

    I don't know how to put this but... we're kind of a big deal.


  • #8420
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,554 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    VinLieger wrote: »
    The standard groups are most at risk, immuno compromised and the elderly, good news is kids so far seem to be pretty resilient. However there are also reports of young(20s,30s) supposedly perfectly healthy people dying too, however this may simply be due to the intense anf hands on treatment regime required and the hospitals in hubei being too overrun to provide this level of care.

    We wont really know till this is all over though to be honest.

    Also smokers, ex-smokers, underlying cardiac issues, and re-infection/relapse which seems to be more serious, possibly fatal but only rumour at this stage.

    In China's defence, watching the Horrific videos on Twitter, CCP is finished from trying to contain this. The people will never forgive this. One thing to watch 'others' being dragged off, when it happens to you... Not so quick to forgive.
    And the CCP couldn't stop this bug. Crashed their own economy, quarantined 760 million people, (that's twice the size of US pop) and couldn't stop it. They are not doing this for a 'flu' or a fatality rate of 2.5%.

    I can't see any other country being able to do the same.

    Interesting WHO announced they were working with stats people 2 days ago. Still waiting for that report.


  • #8421
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,089 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    fr336 wrote: »
    Can you let us know who is saying it won't as I need some relief lol

    Well a lot of people on this thread for starters!! I’m not one of them btw. I think it’ll hit here fairly soon if not already, (I was at the Bord gais theatre during the week and the fukcing coughing was unreal, but anyway.....)
    When/If it does I’m only interested in the at risk group profile.


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  • #8422
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,199 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    VinLieger wrote: »
    ****ing morons, 2 days ago Italy only had 3 cases.... We dont know anything about this virus to be able to say nything of this sort for certain

    The very nature of RNA viruses is that they do mutate and quickly


  • #8423
    darjeeling
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 962 ✭✭✭darjeeling


    fritzelly wrote: »
    I guess because the cells they infect are the same for everyone so mutations follow the same pattern, whereas in animals they can behave differently and infect the animal differently and may attach to different cells helping the mutation take a worse or less worse turn.
    Tried looking it up but cannot find anything explaining why the common cold for example doesn't turn in to something beyond a runny nose and sore throat

    Any virologists on Boards?

    I'm not a virologist either! (geneticist & bioinformatician)

    Anyway, the classic textbook example going back to my undergrad is myxomatosis in rabbits in Australia.

    The virus was introduced by humans as a means of pest control in the 1950s. The initial strain was highly lethal, but mutations over time led to strains that killed fewer hosts, and therefore a better chance of being passed on before the host died.

    More recent work shows that the rabbits themselves have evolved to be less susceptible to the earlier strains, and that the virus has now evolved again by becoming more virulent.

    As for comparisons with coronavirus, the initial myxo strain used had near 100% case fatality rate, so it does'nt really compare. Also, the rabbit-myxo arms race has been happening over 70 years, whereas we can hope have to an effective SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in a year or so.

    Someone asked if there was a SARS vaccine. No, because SARS died out so work was stopped. But the work that was done should inform the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development as the two viruses are genetically very similar.


  • #8424
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,559 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    hmmm wrote: »
    Lots of debate, but some of the better scientists forecast the epidemic doubling every 6.4 days https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

    That looks like about 4-5 months. That also assumes there are no public health interventions to slow it down, which there will be. The health authorities will push to spread out the peak rather than have it happen over a short time.


    It will not spread as quickly in the summer and of course there will be increasing interventions. The hope would be to delay widespread problems until there are better diagnostic tests, some indication of suitable treatments and ultimately a vaccine. .
    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    And the CCP couldn't stop this bug. Crashed their own economy, quarantined 760 million people, (that's twice the size of US pop) and couldn't stop it. They are not doing this for a 'flu' or a fatality rate of 2.5%.

    By simple sums, the fatality rate you suggest would mean 17m dead for that number of people. Are you saying that 14m deaths would not warrent this effort, that is actually worse?


  • #8425
    s7ryf3925pivug
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,999 ✭✭✭s7ryf3925pivug


    I have no idea and there is loads of contradictory information online. [Apparently Russia has launched a misinformation campaign about it which seeks to blame the USA.] Here is the article I was thinking of anyway:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/could-the-coronavirus-mutate-if-a-vaccine-cant-be-found-in-time

    A key point I was interested in:
    It’s worth noting that coronaviruses do not undergo the same type of genome shuffling that leads to the constantly shifting variety of flu strains in circulation. It is this genetic drift that means new flu vaccines have to be created each year and that means getting the flu once does not mean you’ll be immune next time it comes around. The coronavirus is not expected to mutate this rapidly and so once a vaccine is here, it should continue to work far into the future.


  • #8426
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,199 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »
    I have no idea and there is loads of contradictory information online. [Apparently Russia has launched a misinformation campaign about it which seeks to blame the USA.] Here is the article I was thinking of anyway:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/could-the-coronavirus-mutate-if-a-vaccine-cant-be-found-in-time

    A key point I was interested in:

    One sentence saying coronaviruses mutate and that's the reason you keep catching flu and in the next they don't expect this one to mutate

    Doh


  • #8427
    s7ryf3925pivug
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,999 ✭✭✭s7ryf3925pivug


    fritzelly wrote: »
    One sentence saying coronaviruses mutate and that's the reason you keep catching flu and in the next they don't expect this one to mutate

    Doh

    The flu isn't a coronavirus. They specifically say it's not like the flu in terms of its mutation behaviour.


  • #8428
    Martina1991
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote:
    The flu isn't a coronavirus. They specifically say it's not like the flu in terms of its mutation behaviour.
    Both influenza and Coronavirus are RNA viruses.

    Which can mutate.


  • #8429
    YFlyer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,713 ✭✭✭YFlyer


    Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »
    I have no idea and there is loads of contradictory information online. [Apparently Russia has launched a misinformation campaign about it which seeks to blame the USA.] Here is the article I was thinking of anyway:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/could-the-coronavirus-mutate-if-a-vaccine-cant-be-found-in-time

    A key point I was interested in:

    Some Iranian Iman is blaming the US as well.


  • #8430
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,199 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »
    The flu isn't a coronavirus. They specifically say it's not like the flu in terms of its mutation behaviour.

    Misread it

    Ah well here's a report on how coronaviruses do mutate and quickly
    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200210-coronavirus-finding-a-cure-to-fight-the-symptoms


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  • #8431
    s7ryf3925pivug
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,999 ✭✭✭s7ryf3925pivug


    Martina1991 wrote: »
    Both influenza and Coronavirus are RNA viruses.

    Which can mutate.
    Yeah it doesn't say it won't mutate, just that it's relatively stable. From an evolutionary perspective, mutations that lower lethality are more likely to survive than ones that make it more deadly.
    Tests so far suggest that the coronavirus is relatively stable but as it is passed from human to human the virus will become more adapted as a human disease. This is not necessarily a bad thing, though. “In Darwinian terms, the virus wants to survive,” said Smith. “And to do that it’s generally not a sensible idea for a virus to kill people. The most successful viruses infect a lot of people and cause relatively little pathology.”


This discussion has been closed.
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