new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

22-02-2020 03:30AM

wakka12 wrote: »

It is more dangerous than the flu . If seasonal flu broke out on the Diamond Princess cruise liner it would not cause severe complications in over 4% of those who contracted it and kill two. Not only that but flu would also probably not infect such a large number , so it is also more infectious than flu .It's not the flu, this is not the end of the world but it is a lot more dangerous than the flu

Anyway you need only look around to see how governments are responding to minor outbreaks to clearly see that it is not a comparable danger to the flu

I believe people on the cruise skew to above 50s so would be higher risk in general.

wakka12 · 22-02-2020 03:32AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I believe people on the cruise skew to above 50s so would be higher risk in general.

Yep that is absolutely true but a seasonal influenza outbreak on a ship of older folk will still not leave27 in a serious condition and 2 dead over the span of a fortnight out of 630 infections

https://traveltips.usatoday.com
Most people who use Diamond Princess cruises tend to be aged in the 35-65 bracket ,so while older than the general population it's not a cruise full of geriatrics on deaths doorstep. And while they are older it must also be recognised that people casually travelling around the world from Europe to east Asia will generally be in at least decent health.

22-02-2020 03:43AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Yep that is absolutely true but a seasonal influenza outbreak on a ship of older folk will still not leave27 in a serious condition and 2 dead over the span of a fortnight out of 630 infections

https://traveltips.usatoday.com
Most people who use Diamond Princess cruises tend to be aged in the 35-65 bracket ,so while older than the general population it's not a cruise full of geriatrics on deaths doorstep

Normal flu has a hospitalisation rate of roughy 1-2% of all people diagnosed with deaths 0.1-0.2%. So it's roughly double. It's not worth the mass hysteria at the moment (apart from if you are elderly or have co-morbidities).

And the higher percentage could be the lack of a vaccine available compared to the seasonal influenza one we have.

Kermit.de.frog · 22-02-2020 03:53AM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231045580610207744

all about the mane · 22-02-2020 03:54AM

Ficheall wrote: »

Ah, so you are the one who wants to have it both ways.. I see. Carry on then.

No, I don’t. You don’t see...

s7ryf3925pivug · 22-02-2020 04:33AM

Looks like I was misinformed earlier when I said a vaccine would not work long term. According to this the virus is pretty stable and a vaccine would be expected to work for quite a long time.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/could-the-coronavirus-mutate-if-a-vaccine-cant-be-found-in-time

bodhrandude · 22-02-2020 05:16AM

CDC confirmed there is now 35 cases in the US (CNN).

22-02-2020 06:26AM

“Several patients of the deadly coronavirus in China who were discharged from care are testing positive for COVID-19 again, according to Chinese state media.”

https://www.upi.com/amp/Top_News/World-News/2020/02/21/COVID-19-reinfection-cases-on-the-rise-in-China/4291582219521/

tuxy · 22-02-2020 06:45AM

Deleted User wrote: »

“Several patients of the deadly coronavirus in China who were discharged from care are testing positive for COVID-19 again, according to Chinese state media.”

https://www.upi.com/amp/Top_News/World-News/2020/02/21/COVID-19-reinfection-cases-on-the-rise-in-China/4291582219521/

If you read this then you see that the problem is false negative test results not reinfection.
This is what I suspected when I read the headline.
Reinfection would mean this is unlike any other similar virus we have ever seen before. (highly unlikely)
Inability to reliably test would seem to be one of the bigger problems at the moment.

Stark · 22-02-2020 07:29AM

Yeah I went searching for that "reinfection" thing and no evidence for it. All the evidence currently points to immunity after infection.

tuxy · 22-02-2020 07:33AM

Stark wrote: »

Yeah I went searching for that "reinfection" thing and no evidence for it. All the evidence currently points to immunity after infection.

Yes that would be standard for a virus, someone who has recovered will have immunity for a very long time unless the virus mutates.

I wouldn't be surprised if medical staff who are under enormous pressure right now are made mistakes when testing.

Kermit.de.frog · 22-02-2020 07:50AM

Relapse seems to be an increasing trend with the novel coronavirus albeit from small numbers for now.

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2020 08:00AM

tuxy wrote: »

If you read this then you see that the problem is false negative test results not reinfection.
This is what I suspected when I read the headline.
Reinfection would mean this is unlike any other similar virus we have ever seen before. (highly unlikely)
Inability to reliably test would seem to be one of the bigger problems at the moment.

Do you mean false positives? I don't follow tuxy.
There are issues with false negatives alright.

tuxy · 22-02-2020 08:04AM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Do you mean false positives? I don't follow tuxy.
There are issues with false negatives alright.

No it would seem the person who wrote the article confused false negatives in people who had not actually recovered with reinfection.

There is no evidence of reinfection of those who have actually recovered.

Kermit.de.frog · 22-02-2020 08:07AM

tuxy wrote: »

No it would seem the person who wrote the article confused false negatives in people who had not actually recovered with reinfection.

There is no evidence of reinfection of those who have actually recovered.

Erm, there is.

tuxy · 22-02-2020 08:11AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Erm, there is.

There are many articles about reinfection but when you read them it explains it's actually a problem with testing. People who have it sometimes test negative even though they have not recovered.

Is that what you are talking about or something else?

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2020 08:15AM

tuxy wrote: »

There are many articles about reinfection but when you read them it explains it's actually a problem with testing. People who have it sometimes test negative even though they have not recovered.

Is that what you are talking about or something else?

I'd say.

That's good news anyway tuxy.
It would be very unusual for reinfection to occur.

Graces7 · 22-02-2020 08:35AM

fritzelly wrote: »

In my day and age newspapers came in handy in the bathroom - snowflake generation stocking up on ultra soft toilet paper

You beat me to it.

Or rags you wash.

The survivalist sites also are big on making sure you take soft toilet tissue with you when you " bug out" ..

Graces7 · 22-02-2020 08:36AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

This is the perfect example of not trusting people during a epidemic or pandemic.

These times require zero tolerance and marital law.

Hope that is a typo...

Stark · 22-02-2020 08:37AM

Flying to Milan at the moment, wish me luck. I'll bring you all back something nice.

22-02-2020 08:37AM

Ye should be using bum guns / bidets / Japanese toilets, ye Neanderthals.

drunkmonkey · 22-02-2020 09:10AM

Stark wrote: »

Flying to Milan at the moment, wish me luck. I'll bring you all back something nice.

givyjoe · 22-02-2020 09:49AM

all about the mane wrote: »

Covid 19 has killed 2251 people so far. Influenza has killed around 10000 in the US alone this season. We need a bit of perspective here.

This stupid comparison really needs to be put to bed. It's literally like saying 2 mins into Brazil playing San Marino, scores still level and what a great result it is. This thing is only weeks old.

Duke of Url · 22-02-2020 09:51AM

givyjoe wrote: »

This stupid comparison really needs to be put to bed. It's literally like saying 2 mins into Brazil playing San Marino, scores still level and what a great result it is. This thing is only weeks old.

It’s not stupid.

People saying Covid 19 has a 2% death rate is actually stupid.

givyjoe · 22-02-2020 09:58AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

It’s not stupid.

People saying Covid 19 has a 2% death rate is actually stupid.

It's beyond stupid. Do you have any evidence to contradict this number? It's been stated multiple times that if too many people get infected at once, health systems will be overwhelmed and that mortality will increase significantly. Multiple sources, multiple times have stated the critical numbers to be around 1/5, even if its slightly less, this is still enough to overwhelm the Oxygen supplies/equipment needed. Why on earth do you think we are seeing such drastic measures never seen before?

Flu has been around for hundreds of years and traversed the world many times. This is a brand new virus in humans and is viral pneumonia NOT flu. This is the perspective that's needed, not stupidly comparing it to a long established less deadly viruses for which some vaccines are already available.

Sean 18 · 22-02-2020 09:59AM

The worrying trend of Coronavirus is unlike the flu it seems to be killing younger people

22-02-2020 10:03AM

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-korea-reports-142-more-coronavirus-cases-total-346

433 cases in South Korea, 200+ in a day

Indestructable · 22-02-2020 10:05AM

The British couple who were on the cruise ship and videoing their quarantine have developed pneumonia.

laurah591 · 22-02-2020 10:06AM

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-korea-reports-142-more-coronavirus-cases-total-346

433 cases in South Korea, 200+ in a day

Snap... It's doubled for the last 3 days

In other news +10 In Italy

Sean 18 · 22-02-2020 10:07AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-korea-reports-142-more-coronavirus-cases-total-346

433 cases in South Korea, 200+ in a day

Spreading like wildfire probably be 500 tomorrow

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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