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new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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Comments

  • #7052
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    volchitsa wrote: »
    I'm lost here: how can you have usable data about unreported cases?

    asymptomatic cases detected and then an estimation


  • #7053
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,753 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    At this point I'm thinking they're all infected

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230067596034179072


  • #7054
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    wadacrack wrote: »
    The Case Fatality Rate is not the same as the Overall death rate of the virus due to unreported cases, which according to data is at about 40%

    CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). The CFR number during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR

    Once all cases are resolved you get the final CFR, same as Death Rate.
    As stated above the final CFR will be substantially higher
    There is no other way to calculate a deat rate or fatality rate or whatver way you call it. Anything else is an estimate that try to mitigate the effect of counting new cases taht still have no outcome
    The 2% rate doesnt account for unresolved cases at all, they account for 85% of the total infected people


  • #7055
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Mic 1972, do your figures account for the various rates of deaths in different age groups? Or are you counting everyone unresolved to have the same rate of death regardless of age?

    Show us your full calculations.


  • #7056
    scotchy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭scotchy


    Two cases announced in Iran.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230077385594298368

    .

    💙 💛 💙 💛 💙 💛



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  • #7057
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Will be interesting to see if the two Iranian cases are Chinese travellers or not


  • #7058
    volchitsa
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,006 ✭✭✭✭volchitsa


    wadacrack wrote: »
    asymptomatic cases detected and then an estimation

    Does this estimation take account of flu and other cases, or are they all included in it?

    "If a woman cannot stand in a public space and say, without fear of consequences, that men cannot be women, then women have no rights at all." Helen Joyce



  • #7059
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered). The CFR number during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR

    Once all cases are resolved you get the final CFR, same as Death Rate.
    As stated above the final CFR will be substantially higher
    There is no other way to calculate a deat rate or fatality rate or whatver way you call it. Anything else is an estimate that try to mitigate the effect of counting new cases taht still have no outcome
    The 2% rate doesnt account for unresolved cases at all, they account for 85% of the total infected people

    That's not the point I was making. The models from China are going to have to take into account a very high degree of variance. Unreported cases and the start of an out break being the two main reason. The overall death rate of the virus will not be as high as the Case Fatality rate at present.

    China's lack of transparency has made it much more difficult than needed to learn more about the condition.


  • #7060
    scotchy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭scotchy


    scotchy wrote: »
    Two cases announced in Iran.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230077385594298368

    .

    Was looking at the refugee camps in Turkey and Syria on the news the other night, If cases start popping up there? Can only imagine the consequences.

    💙 💛 💙 💛 💙 💛



  • #7061
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/02/17/man-quarantined-ship-coronavirus-full-episode-acfc-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/acfc-full-episodes/

    Interesting interview from an American who chose to stay on the ship instead of being flown home by his government.

    Basically he didn’t fully believe what he was being told by the US government (that there wouldn’t be people with virus being transferred) and he was right. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t ever trust authorities but the result of this is that either the US government lied or they tested everybody and there was a lot of false negatives. I don’t know which would be more concerning.


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  • #7062
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Huge increase in the number of critical and serious cases in China, it was 9 thousands and something yesterday, 12,000 now


  • #7063
    RebelButtMunch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,480 ✭✭✭RebelButtMunch


    The numbers in China still are not right I think. They jumped massively when they changed the diagnosis method, but then continued along the same trajectory afterwards.


  • #7064
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,753 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    scotchy wrote: »
    Was looking at the refugee camps in Turkey and Syria on the news the other night, If cases start popping up there? Can only imagine the consequences.

    Would be lethal,cannot see them being rushed to,hospital


  • #7065
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 13,392 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Huge increase in the number of critical and serious cases in China, it was 9 thousands and something yesterday, 12,000 now

    21% now, has been rising again after going down to 14% I think?


  • #7066
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,067 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    So there are two people who came back to Ireland at the weekend from one of the infected cruise ships and have undergone no quarantine?


  • #7067
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,992 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Huge increase in the number of critical and serious cases in China, it was 9 thousands and something yesterday, 12,000 now

    What source for the figures are you accessing if you dont mind me asking?


  • #7068
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Ficheall wrote: »
    So there are two people who came back to Ireland at the weekend from one of the infected cruise ships and have undergone no quarantine?

    This is again an issue I have with communication. I don’t mind people coming back to Ireland and being allowed to self quarantine or whatever it is that authorities decide to do, once there is a way to confirm the logic behind it.

    Now they might say “you don’t need to know everything and we don’t think it’s important for the general public to have this information”. But in a age of social media and massive forums for people to discuss these things, what you are doing is allowing somebody else to fill the communication void. You can’t complain when you get people scaremongering and coming up with all sorts of theories if you refuse to provide information on the decisions being made.

    I still don’t get it. Communication and the narrative of what’s being done can be controlled to a large degree, but saying nothing creates a vacuum that will be filled. Politicians will pay a fortune to spin doctors for a reason.


  • #7069
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,067 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    You reckon I'm wrong then? I'd hope so, but...


  • #7070
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Ficheall wrote: »
    You reckon I'm wrong then? I'd hope so, but...

    TBH I don’t know if you are wrong, I was more making a general statement about the poor communication thus far from Irish authorities, as opposed to responding directly to your information.


  • #7071
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,067 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Drumpot wrote: »
    I don’t know if you are wrong, I was more making a general statement about the poor communication thus far from Irish authorities, as opposed to responding directly to your information.
    Fair enough. I would have assumed that if the two people who came back to Ireland on the weekend had been quarantined, it would have mentioned in the article something beyond "The HSE have been informed."


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  • #7072
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    gozunda wrote: »
    What source for the figures are you accessing if you dont mind me asking?

    BNO


  • #7073
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    4 new cases Japan, 3 Singapore, 1 in HK


  • #7074
    show me the money.1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 258 ✭✭show me the money.1


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Fair enough. I would have assumed that if the two people who came back to Ireland on the weekend had been quarantined, it would have mentioned in the article something beyond "The HSE have been informed."

    Can they be forced to be put in quarantine in Ireland?
    Who says who should and shouldn't be?


  • #7075
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Fair enough. I would have assumed that if the two people who came back to Ireland on the weekend had been quarantined, it would have mentioned in the article something beyond "The HSE have been informed."

    There seems to be a strategy of prioritizing not spreading panic and prejudice of people infected at play. But like I said, the way they are not communicating anything has left a vacuum that will be filled , so they are leaving others to fill in the gaps. You can’t just whine about an information gap that you know scaremongers and fake news will fill, certainly in an age when it’s never been easier to dupe populations and we all know it.

    Most people it appears are happy to remain ignorant on the subject in a “until it gets worse I will not worry” POV, therefore it seems the authority’s feel this suits them as they don’t want to make anymore of this then they have to. Again, this is a mistake bacause they are just letting others communicate their uninformed opinions that can become “fact” to some.


  • #7076
    dominatinMC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,256 ✭✭✭dominatinMC


    wakka12 wrote: »
    4 new cases Japan, 3 Singapore, 1 in HK
    Provided the data is accurate, these are really small numbers in the grand scheme of things. I would consider them to be a promising sign that this can hopefully be contained


  • #7077
    odyssey06
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,079 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    show me the money.1 wrote: »
    Can they be forced to be put in quarantine in Ireland?
    Who says who should and shouldn't be?

    There's a separate thread about legal basis for forced quarantine in Ireland:
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058053864

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • #7078
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    I'm getting a real sense of the truth being hidden from the general population about this whole thing. It's really bizarre the supposed lack of cases outside Wuhan given how interconnected the whole planet is.


  • #7079
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    dominatinMC wrote: »
    Provided the data is accurate, these are really small numbers in the grand scheme of things. I would consider them to be a promising sign that this can hopefully be contained

    Both countries are testing all flu like symptoms The data in these countries over the next few wees will help give us a better understanding of what we are dealing with


  • #7080
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    dominatinMC wrote: »
    Provided the data is accurate, these are really small numbers in the grand scheme of things. I would consider them to be a promising sign that this can hopefully be contained

    Do you believe the Chinese figures on any level? I mean , they aren’t letting WHO into the region the outbreak started, why do you think that is?

    Do you think they are more concerned with stopping the spread or protecting the mother land from an economic and nationality/pride perspective?

    They punished people for the first few weeks for discussing the virus. Do you think it’s scaremongering to ask these questions? I feel like the whole world is being nice to China in the hope that they will eventually open up and be honest about what’s going on. In the absence of knowing for sure it’s all here say but I’m just curious if people who are optimistic about the spread of this virus presume China is now being upfront in a manner that Can be trusted.


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  • #7081
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Mic 1972, do your figures account for the various rates of deaths in different age groups? Or are you counting everyone unresolved to have the same rate of death regardless of age?

    Show us your full calculations.


    I'm using data from worldometers

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Total Cases: 75,227
    Open Cases: 58,291 (77% of total cases)

    Closed cases: 16,936 (23% of total cases)
    Recovered / Discharged: 14,924 (88%)
    Deaths: 2,012 (12%)

    The Death rate calculated ONLY on the closed cases is 12%, however this rate is decreasing as the number of closed cases increases, this is because it takes longer to recover than to die


    The Death rate officially being communicated (2.6%) is calculated as
    Deaths / Total Cases = 2,012/75,227 = 2.6%
    This formula is flawed as there are 77% of total cases still without an outcome


This discussion has been closed.
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