new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

cnocbui · 18-02-2020 01:33PM

gozunda wrote: »

Fairly standard Irish State level of information being provided on emergency planning there and elsewhere tbh - ie bugger all squared

According to the news this morning the Department of Foreign Affairs confirmed there are Irish citizens on board a cruise ship in Japan and the cruise ship in Cambodia (I presume among those not cleared for departure)

Yeah reckon that's deciding what type of biscuit options there are for the meetings that may be scheduled sometime somewhere ...

If it hits here our hospital and response services will be well and truely fooked and no fault of hard working frontline staff either ...

Why doesn't a journalist challenge the liars in government and ask how is it our medical services could cope with an outbreak, when the norm is for there to be 9+ month waiting lists for innumerable medical procedures and Limerick regional hospital has had people on trolleys for the last decade. If there is the capacity to cope then why hasn't that capacity been used to eliminate waiting lists and get people off trolleys?

Zenify · 18-02-2020 01:36PM

Did I misunderstand an earlier comment.... did an Australian couple refuse to be evacuated from the ship because they weren't sure if they could bring all their bags?

Fr_Dougal · 18-02-2020 01:39PM

saabsaab wrote: »

Just saw on RTE that those returning from the affected ships may not have to quarantine! This is mad we are only asking for trouble.

Two Irish passengers aboard the MS Westerdam returned home and entered self-imposed isolation for potential coronavirus after the ship docked in Cambodia last week, the Irish Times has learned.

Lovely.

laurah591 · 18-02-2020 01:42PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Why - who has died or come to harm?

This whole social media angle is being overplayed dramatically.

China is in serious lockdown mode combating a serious threat. Some of the unverified material is fake for sure but more isn't. I think it's important to sometimes see a glimpse from ground zero. Without access to this material i believe the great unwashed wouldn't be told the full story. I believe social media has played an important role in educating people to some extent

laurah591 · 18-02-2020 01:45PM

Zenify wrote: »

Did I misunderstand an earlier comment.... did an Australian couple refuse to be evacuated from the ship because they weren't sure if they could bring all their bags?

Nope lol.... they paid for there bags and so help em.... they coming home with there bags.

I guess they don't believe this virus is a risk to them

laurah591 · 18-02-2020 01:46PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Lovely.

I wonder if the people on that homeward bound flight knew who they were sitting beside

SeaBreezes · 18-02-2020 01:52PM

Zenify wrote: »

Did I misunderstand an earlier comment.... did an Australian couple refuse to be evacuated from the ship because they weren't sure if they could bring all their bags?

I wonder what they are smuggling...;-)

dominatinMC · 18-02-2020 01:54PM

Just to clarify on previous posts, here is the link to the RTE story. Nowhere does it state that "those returning from the affected ships may not have to quarantine". Although the report is quite ambiguous and vague in detail..

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0218/1116033-ireland-coronavirus/

laurah591 · 18-02-2020 01:55PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Iwonder what they are smuggling...;-)

lol

:D

wakka12 · 18-02-2020 01:55PM

Yeh youd think people on social media were making a big fuss out of f*** all. By the far the largest and most stringently implemented quarantine in human history is currently ongoing and covers over 10% of the world population,the olympics may be cancelled for the first time since the world wars,some of the largest and most important economies in the world may go into recession,a totally unknown and novel virus of uncertain lethality could very easily infect a huge percentage of the world population,almost 2,000 people have died in just 5 weeks in a city where youd generally expect about that number of flu deaths over the course of an entire year(and that would be a in a really bad flu season, and doesnt take into account the harsh quaratine and lockdown which stopped much of the infections), if anything I think the worldwide media/social media is almost bizarrely quiet about it

SeaBreezes · 18-02-2020 01:58PM

gozunda wrote: »

Fairly standard Irish State level of information being provided on emergency planning there and elsewhere tbh - ie bugger all squared

According to the news this morning the Department of Foreign Affairs confirmed there are Irish citizens on board a cruise ship in Japan and the cruise ship in Cambodia (I presume among those not cleared for departure)

Yeah reckon that's deciding what type of biscuit options there are for the meetings that may be scheduled sometime somewhere ...

If it hits here our hospital and response services will be well and truely fooked and no fault of hard working frontline staff either ...

I would imagine it's here already.. The tests are not accurate.

We have people in limerick, dublin and cork hospitals who have tested negative, but I assume have the symptoms as they were suspected cases. I guess they are suspect due to recent geographic location. Otherwise why think it's Coronavirus?

I also assume that's why the Chinese lumped suspected cases in with actual cases, and a clinical diagnoses is enough.

Drumpot · 18-02-2020 02:09PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Why doesn't a journalist challenge the liars in government and ask how is it our medical services could cope with an outbreak, when the norm is for there to be 9+ month waiting lists for innumerable medical procedures and Limerick regional hospital has had people on trolleys for the last decade. If there is the capacity to cope then why hasn't that capacity been used to eliminate waiting lists and get people off trolleys?

I think some people think that asking serious questions is tantamount to inciting panic. Want to understand whats going on and what we would do in this country if it did break out, is somehow being attached to some sort of panic narrative that I don't really get. I am not on twitter or facebook (other then work and contacts) so I dont know whats going on those sort of mediums.

As I said from my own small story of my estate flooding, panic ensued not so much because the estate was flooding but when there was no plan , coordination or idea what was being done in event of the flooding getting worse. Even after the event (the first time), no real plan or communication was improved. It really was as if each time our estate flooded we would just make it up as we go along.

I work in the insurance industry so I do like statistics to understand probability. A couple aged 40, non smokers have an 89% chance of one of the following happening to one of them before they are 68 (state pension age):

- Death (10%) (24% if smokers)
- Serious Illness (29%) (50% if smokers)
- Unable to work for a month or more (83%)(94% if smokers)
- One of the above (89%)(98% if smokers)

*Statistics risk calculator from Aviva , worked out by actuaries

I think this is important in my understanding of people's thought process towards events that could harm them. In my experience, most people do not believe they are going to be in the 89%/98% probability in those figures. Quite often, people who know me dont really think of life assurance or other covers as anything other then a product to be sold, until they see me at a funeral or if somebody they know gets unwell.

And if that's the case, then its no surprise that most people dont really worry too much about a virus that only kills maybe 2% of those infected. And then if the majority of those are elderly (and not children), there is even less concern from those very unlikely to be affected. Therefore they dont think of the potential consequences (economy, health service, availability of goods and services) of them being complacent and not taking this virus seriously. This leads to the potential for the virus to spread increasing just by this factor on its own.

wadacrack · 18-02-2020 02:15PM

The lack of coverage highlighting the risk is not a surprise. Most people don't value their health. Diet and climate change prime examples.

BorneTobyWilde · 18-02-2020 02:18PM

David and Sally the update specialists on the Cruise ship now have been infected, how crazy is that. They only have it because they were held hostage on a ship where the virus was.

wakka12 · 18-02-2020 02:18PM

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f5s6xe/covid19_share_of_daily_confirmed_cases_feb_17_2020/
80% of new daily infections are still occurring in Wuhan, 10% in Greater Hubei. The 4% rest of China, 1% worldwide outside China, and 5% on the Diamon Princess lol

Snow Garden · 18-02-2020 02:22PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Why - who has died or come to harm?

To give people some perspective.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

CDC estimates that so far in the 2019-2020 flu season there have been at least 26 million flu illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu.

How come ye dont hype up a thread on that?

Snow Garden · 18-02-2020 02:23PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Its always better to err on the side of caution when facing what could be a once in a lifetime pandemic. Those who got masks early were smart, its much harder to get the right kind of mask now.

SARS was in 2003.

wadacrack · 18-02-2020 02:23PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

To give people some perspective.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

CDC estimates that so far in the 2019-2020 flu season there have been at least 26 million flu illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu.

How come ye dont hype up a thread on that?

This is a new and much more dangerous illness, its been only around about 8 weeks or so.

timmyntc · 18-02-2020 02:26PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

SARS was in 2003.

SARS wasn't pandemic, it had low infection rates and was restricted to China/SEA.

nCov is much more infectious - the danger with something that spreads this easily and incubates for so long is that if it becomes widespread it could be very difficult to ever get rid of.
Basically it could become a new, more lethal flu-like illness in that it's always spreading & mutating.

odyssey06 · 18-02-2020 02:33PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

To give people some perspective.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap
CDC estimates that so far in the 2019-2020 flu season there have been at least 26 million flu illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu.
How come ye dont hype up a thread on that?

Did the Chinese quarantine one of their provinces because of flu?
Or because of the hype on this thread?
Is there a cruise ship quarantined because someone has the flu?
Or because of the hype on this thread?

You read it here first folks. We have the power to get ships quarantined.
I've never liked Luxembourg. How do we get that quarantined?

Oh wait no, in reality we are dealing with a new and unknown contagious virus with the potential for a global pandemic.

ohnonotgmail · 18-02-2020 02:34PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

To give people some perspective.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

CDC estimates that so far in the 2019-2020 flu season there have been at least 26 million flu illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu.

How come ye dont hype up a thread on that?

and if we had 26 million cases of this virus we would have a conservative estimate of 100,000 deaths. just some more perspective.

Nijmegen · 18-02-2020 02:36PM

I thought we had left the "yeah but the average flu kills 14,000 people per year and ye don't panic about that." Or is it just that every 100 pages of the thread we go back round on it. The infectious potential of this virus and its death rate are significant vs the typical flu, and if left uncontained it could infect and kill significantly more on top of the well understood and tackled flu (just the same as the typical flu would kill far more if we didn't invest significant amounts into fighting it, just that we do so in a fairly procedural way so that it falls away into the background). If this virus is contained at, say, 3,000 deaths some might say "Ha, it wasn't even as bad as a normal flu!" without really stopping to consider the simply tremendous efforts that had to be lent to stopping it from killing many more. 10% of the worlds population are on lockdown and they're spraying the streets with truck loads of disinfectant. They're not doing it for the craic.

cnocbui · 18-02-2020 02:38PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

To give people some perspective.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

CDC estimates that so far in the 2019-2020 flu season there have been at least 26 million flu illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu.

How come ye dont hype up a thread on that?

To give you some perspective, 50% of Europe's population died due to the Black Death. That would be 370 million people in today's numbers. Keeping a close eye on a developing situation involving a new pandemic pathogen isn't panicking or foolish. There is far more panicking and foolishness going on regarding 'climate change' and no one has even died.

SeaBreezes · 18-02-2020 02:42PM

I see closed cases fatality rate has dropped another 1% now at 12% its been dropping by 1% a day since the new hubei governor took over.
I thought it was WHO on the ground but apparently not..

Now there's a man who understands stats...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

18-02-2020 02:45PM

Seems to have mostly died down in Vietnam. No new cases in five days and eleven out of sixteen released. I did have to fill in some government form today though for my landlord explaining my recent travel and whether or not I have any symptoms.

cnocbui · 18-02-2020 02:46PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

I see closed cases fatality rate has dropped another 1% now at 12% its been dropping by 1% a day since the new hubei governor took over.
I thought it was WHO on the ground but apparently not..

Now there's a man who understands stats...

I'd say more like he understands Xi Jinping and what happened to his predecessor and many other officials in Hubei province.

wakka12 · 18-02-2020 02:50PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

To give people some perspective.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap

CDC estimates that so far in the 2019-2020 flu season there have been at least 26 million flu illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu.

How come ye dont hype up a thread on that?

Because those flu deaths were across a country of over 300 million?That is 30 times the population of Wuhan but only 8 times the number of flu deaths that Wuhan has experienced from coronavirus, the 'flu season' has also been operating on a widespread scale for several months longer in the US, this all began in early-mid january for Wuhan

Going by commonly cited flu statistics with a 1% severe complication rate and 0.1% mortality rate and generally infecting 5-20% of the American pop annually, Wuhan with a population of 11 million should experience 2200 flu deaths(high estimate, going by a 20% infection rate) over the course of a year. It has been five and a half weeks since the first person died on January 10th and now 1790 people have died in Wuhan in that timeframe so it is considerably more than youd expect from a typical flu season, this also doesnt even take into consideration the fact that most of Wuhans population has not even been allowed to go outside for the last month, of course considerably reducing the infection rate total

Coronavirus is absolutely and undoubtedly a much larger global health issue than seasonal flu. I seriously cannot believe this is still being discussed, 5 weeks into the largest quaratine in human history

CrankyHaus · 18-02-2020 02:55PM

I think this Deutsch Welle article strikes a good balance of getting the scale of the problem across in an informational summary while not spreading panic.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-hopes-to-contain-covid-19/a-52380880

The official approach here in Ireland seems to be to downplay like mad, which actually creates a vacuum that may be filled by panic.
It reminds me slightly of the official narrative on economics in 2207 and 2008 - "we shouldn't talk ourselves into a recession".

Spudmonkey · 18-02-2020 02:56PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Seems to have mostly died down in Vietnam. No new cases in five days and eleven out of sixteen released. I did have to fill in some government form today though for my landlord explaining my recent travel and whether or not I have any symptoms.

I'm just back after spending the last two weeks there and was keeping an eye on the numbers. They seemed to take it seriously enough on entry, anyone with any previous travel to china was pulled aside and detained. In HCM they had a guy monitoring people's temperatures using a thermal imaging camera. Most people there were using the masks and they had alcohol handwashes in various places. It also seemed to be a fairly big presence on Telly. Most news outlets were covering it.

At the same time you'd still see people heavily involved in the communal sharing of food which I thought would be a sure fire way to spread it. They must have done a relatively good job isolating it in that town they quarantined.

fr336 · 18-02-2020 02:57PM

I've always found it interesting how humans love scaring each other when it comes to war but if you take something potentially on your doorstep like this seriously, it's scaremongering. Let the people get back to their gossip, guys.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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