new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

wakka12 · 18-02-2020 12:28AM

Even though the numbers are going down a lot, I still dont understand, how can anyone even still be getting infected by this virus seeing as nobody in Wuhan can even go outside or go to work or do anything? What possible way could the infection still be being spread from person to person? In addition to people probably being scared out of their mind to touch anybody else in public and probably always washing their hands and surfaces and wearing masks. Shoudnt the number of new cases since such a harsh lockdown be extremely small?

Would make you wonder how crazy high the number of infected people would be if there was no big government intervention, or if it was ignored or undetected for a lot longer, or if people were less afraid and just took less care to isolate and wash hands/surfaces, probably would be in the millions

ceadaoin. · 18-02-2020 12:31AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Even though the numbers are going down a lot, I still dont understand, how can anyone even still be getting infected by this virus seeing as nobody in Wuhan can even go outside or go to work or do anything? What possible way could the infection still be being spread from person to person? In addition to people probably being scared out of their mind to touch anybody else in public and probably always washing their hands and surfaces and wearing masks. Shoudnt the number of new cases since such a harsh lockdown be extremely small?

People who are caring for those who are sick seem to be extremely vulnerable to infection, whether that's family members or health care workers. So it could be getting passed on that way rather than from outside. And anyone who has to attend a hospital, even for other reasons is probably high risk too.

fritzelly · 18-02-2020 12:37AM

This comment on Reddit made me laugh

Turns out the way to beat the virus is to have the President declare it will be under control within two weeks, then the cases just start dropping like magic. Who knew?

SeaBreezes · 18-02-2020 12:43AM

fritzelly wrote: »

This comment on Reddit made me laugh

And replace the governer of hubei with someone who understands the stats required a little better? ..

I'm a little depressed. I thought the new numbers coming from Wuhan and hubei were from the WHO... now, I'm not so sure ./

tuxy · 18-02-2020 12:43AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

People who are caring for those who are sick seem to be extremely vulnerable to infection, whether that's family members or health care workers. So it could be getting passed on that way rather than from outside. And anyone who has to attend a hospital, even for other reasons is probably high risk too.

Also Wuhan is completely overwhelmed. People who may have been ill for a few weeks are only getting diagnosed now and still many more infected who are not officially diagnosed.

fritzelly · 18-02-2020 12:51AM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Somewhat worrying for those of us with parents/relatives who are 60+.

I think most people in that age spread in Ireland (and Europe wide) will be fine (barring any underlying conditions that could lead to complications) - we are a pretty healthy society. That's is probably telling in that there is no real bad cases outside China where someone has caught it in Europe, even those Westerners that caught it in China have all seemed to recovered. (cue it's a targetted Asian virus)

wakka12 · 18-02-2020 12:58AM

Are we way healthier though..? Irish people are a lot fatter than Chinese people , just one example, and obesity puts you at higher risk of many diseases. Death from them can usally be delayed a long time with modern western medicine, but still, longer lifespan doesnt always mean we are 'healthier'

Also a side question but I wonder when they speak of the risk associated with underlying illness, does the risk apply equally to somebody with an illness that is being well controlled? For example if somebody with high blood pressure or diabetes is taking medications that ensures normal blood pressure and blood sugar will they still be at increased risk or just normalised risk now?

fritzelly · 18-02-2020 01:04AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Are we way healthier though..? Irish people are a lot fatter than Chinese people , just one example, and obesity puts you at higher risk of many diseases. Death from them can usally be delayed a long time with modern western medicine, but still, longer lifespan doesnt always mean we are 'healthier'

Lot of fatties in China as well (including your diabetes/high blood pressure) - tried to find a decent report on health in Chinese but everything is US related
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_China

As you amended I think we control it better so it's no longer an issue whereas a lot of Chinese would go for "herbal" remedies that in the main do nothing.

fritzelly · 18-02-2020 01:16AM

Looks like it's over folks

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1229558754561208320

fritzelly · 18-02-2020 01:19AM

Guys on the cruise ship must be like how the hell is there more cases on this single ship in a day than in a country with a population of over a billion - don't be playing the lotto

4068ac1elhodqr · 18-02-2020 01:29AM

The 454 number of confirmed from the plauge ship indicates it still needs very high levels of caution.

The ship could any hotel, office or school and it still isn't known how it's spreading so widespread.
Could be the air-con or water supply, of just someone in the kitchen weeks ago, mixed with a longish incubation.

Singapore & Japan with circa 70cases each, will now likely be in the hundreds (2-300 before end of month).
If Thailand and S.Korea can keep it below 50, they have a chance to holding it back.

Chances are it's here for the year, and each winter after that.
The Hol'Inn in Heathrow has now been assigned the pending role of a flu hotel.

fritzelly · 18-02-2020 01:31AM

<tinfoil hat on>
China's economy is taking a nose dive
They need to send a message to the world - all is fine, we have the virus under control, start trading again and sending people here
<tinfoil hat off>

Sierra Oscar · 18-02-2020 01:33AM

fritzelly wrote: »

<tinfoil hat on>
China's economy is taking a nose dive
They need to send a message to the world - all is fine, we have the virus under control, start trading again and sending people here
<tinfoil hat off>

World Health Organisation are casting doubt over the figures.

Tbh the Chinese economy is starting to take a hit and it looks like the Government want to get people back to work. The isolation measures are undoubtedly having an effect but they can't stay in place forever.

fritzelly · 18-02-2020 01:34AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

World Health Organisation are casting doubt over the figures.

Oooh where is that reported? They won't even let them in to Hubei

When you see how much China exports
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271616/monthly-value-of-exports-from-china/

You have to wonder how this is really hurting their economy - that is massive numbers

Sierra Oscar · 18-02-2020 01:39AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Oooh where is that reported? They won't even let them in to Hubei

When you see how much China exports
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271616/monthly-value-of-exports-from-china/

You have to wonder how this is really hurting their economy - that is massive numbers

Coronavirus: WHO cautions over figures showing slowdown in infections

fritzelly · 18-02-2020 01:41AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Coronavirus: WHO cautions over figures showing slowdown in infections

Can you paste the text - paywall and archive is showing nothing

Call Me Jimmy · 18-02-2020 01:42AM

fritzelly wrote: »

<tinfoil hat on>
China's economy is taking a nose dive
They need to send a message to the world - all is fine, we have the virus under control, start trading again and sending people here
<tinfoil hat off>

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1229561171411439616

fritzelly · 18-02-2020 01:47AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Can you paste the text - paywall and archive is showing nothing

Not sure they are saying don't trust the numbers - more don't take this as a turning point that it's under control

Reported slowdown in outbreak ‘must be interpreted very cautiously’ – WHO
Chinese data showing a decline in new coronavirus cases “must be interpreted very cautiously”, according to the head of the World Health Organization.
“Trends can change as new populations are affected. It’s too early to tell if this reported decline will continue. Every scenario is still on the table,” Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, told reporters during a press briefing.
The latest Chinese government data showed the number of new coronavirus cases fell to the lowest level in three weeks. China has reported over 70,000 cases in total, including more than 1,700 deaths.
Dr Tedros added that it appears Covid-19 is not as deadly as other coronaviruses such as Sars and Mers.
Dr Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s emergencies programme, said officials need to be extremely careful before characterising an outbreak as a “pandemic”. He said the majority of Covid-19 cases outside of China still have a “direct link back to China”.
“The real issue here is whether we’re seeing efficient community transmission outside of China, and at the present time, we’re not observing it,” Dr Ryan said.

cnocbui · 18-02-2020 02:05AM

fritzelly wrote: »

I think most people in that age spread in Ireland (and Europe wide) will be fine (barring any underlying conditions that could lead to complications) - we are a pretty healthy society. That's is probably telling in that there is no real bad cases outside China where someone has caught it in Europe, even those Westerners that caught it in China have all seemed to recovered. (cue it's a targetted Asian virus)

A US citizen died in Wuhan China. An article says she had underlying health issues and I believe she was Caucasian.

4068ac1elhodqr · 18-02-2020 02:07AM

fritzelly wrote: »

(cue it's a targetted Asian virus)

Conspiracy Theories -->...

igCorcaigh · 18-02-2020 02:48AM

Look at those death rates for the elderly.
I have been waiting for this info for a while.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1229516440308502528?s=19

18-02-2020 02:49AM

The latest figures show that more than 12,000 people have recovered from the infection out of a total of more than 73,000 who have contracted it.
We have to assume that many more will recover if we factor in the latest comments by the head of the World Health Organization.

Speaking in Geneva, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said data from China had helped form a “a clearer picture of the outbreak” and that it appeared that four out of five people infected would recover. It was not as deadly as Sars or Mers, he said, adding:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/18/coronavirus-outbreak-updates-coronavirus-live-updates-hubei-deaths-china-wuhan-outbreak-apple-iphone-death-toll-latest-news

now I look at 73k and work out 2% to be 1,460 but 1800+ are already dead

fritzelly · 18-02-2020 03:01AM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Look at those death rates for the elderly.
I have been waiting for this info for a while.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1229516440308502528?s=19

Someone quoted an actual decent twitter user, hallelujah

cnocbui · 18-02-2020 03:25AM

The coronavirus crisis was made in China, but no one will say it

Fairly scathing article about China's handling of this: https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/the-coronavirus-crisis-was-made-in-china-but-no-one-will-say-it-20200217-p541hk.html

1800_Ladladlad · 18-02-2020 04:40AM

Im not sure whether this was about but they came on and took two women off the plane after texting? no other info it , does anyone know anything about it ?

https://twitter.com/MattieGriffin32/status/1229492618234454016

Nijmegen · 18-02-2020 05:53AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Not sure they are saying don't trust the numbers - more don't take this as a turning point that it's under control

I’m old enough to remember the virus “slowing down” at about 10,000 infected. Wait and see. Some numbers are just not believable, like Indonesia having no cases whatsoever. What we’re seeing in Japan is the key to watch I suspect, outside the ship: How it ticks up in a well controlled first world country that’s seen it coming.

cloudatlas · 18-02-2020 06:24AM

Oh no guys the apple phone supply has been cut, what tragedy next?! The Black Death never knew such tragedy.

Nijmegen · 18-02-2020 07:52AM

cloudatlas wrote: »

Oh no guys the apple phone supply has been cut, what tragedy next?! The Black Death never knew such tragedy.

Funny till you consider the economic knock on impacts; and you wonder what else China produces that perhaps we can’t live without so much of.

Fewer products means fewer shipments. Supply chain jobs. Means fewer sales. Service jobs. Means less VAT. Public jobs.

In Korea half of one of the worlds largest car plants has shut down for lack of parts. Workers without hours in both China and Korea now. How does this affect us? Well, lots of these people travel for their holidays or send their kids to study abroad. Bye bye to that revenue.

The economic impacts of this will be ginormous. And if China insists on going for their 6% growth target they could put everyone back to work before the virus is controlled.

ceadaoin. · 18-02-2020 07:56AM

cloudatlas wrote: »

Oh no guys the apple phone supply has been cut, what tragedy next?! The Black Death never knew such tragedy.

Yeah wait until every little (and big) thing you try to buy, except maybe food, is out of stock, hugely inflated or severely delayed. That's what happens when pretty much the whole worlds supply chain depends on one country. It's not that funny really. Could have huge knock on effects for everyone

Nonoperational · 18-02-2020 08:19AM

The interesting data is from Europe where the first cases are a few weeks old now. Those predicting disaster here may have been a touch premature. Who would have thought.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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