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new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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Comments

  • #6722
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Yesterday there have been "only" 2000 new reported cases, the trend is slowing down
    But most importantly the spread outside China has been prevented with several countries now going back to 0 infected, that's a very good sign


  • #6723
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    It looks well contained everywhere in the world except some countries around China, such as Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and a few others where cases with no known links to existing infected people continue to pop up , and would suggest it is more widespread than has been detected


  • #6724
    RebelButtMunch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,477 ✭✭✭RebelButtMunch


    wakka12 wrote: »
    It looks well contained everywhere in the world except some countries around China, such as Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and a few others where cases with no known links to existing infected people continue to pop up , and would suggest it is more widespread than has been detected

    Give it a couple of weeks. I'd be very surprised if it doesn't take off in India and we get more than a few cases


  • #6725
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,193 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    RebelButtMunch wrote: »
    Give it a couple of weeks. I'd be very surprised if it doesn't take off in India and we get more than a few cases

    Or Africa for that matter.

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • #6726
    MarkY91
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,073 ✭✭✭MarkY91


    RebelButtMunch wrote: »
    Give it a couple of weeks. I'd be very surprised if it doesn't take off in India and we get more than a few cases

    There's Indians all over Singapore and Bangkok. I'm shocked it hasn't reached India yet


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  • #6727
    tillyfilly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 567 ✭✭✭tillyfilly


    India reported the first confirmed case of the coronavirus infection on 30 January 2020 in the state of Kerala. The affected had a travel history from Wuhan, China
    https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/coronavirus-affected-countries-india-measures-impact-pharma-economy/


  • #6728
    RebelButtMunch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,477 ✭✭✭RebelButtMunch


    tillyfilly wrote: »
    India reported the first confirmed case of the coronavirus infection on 30 January 2020 in the state of Kerala. The affected had a travel history from Wuhan, China
    https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/coronavirus-affected-countries-india-measures-impact-pharma-economy/

    Yeah. 2 weeks ago now. I find it hard to believe there's nobody else in the entire country not infected


  • #6729
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    Or Africa for that matter.

    Getting very hot in Africa and India over the next few weeks viruses don’t like that. That’s why these events always kick off around Christmas and fade away by summer as it gets warmer. It was the same with SARS.


  • #6730
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,882 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »
    Yes that's mentioned in The Guardian. They still think kids are hit less hard by it and that the severity of the critical form is related to age.

    80% have a mild disease
    14% have severe disease including pneumonia
    5% have critical disease including respiratory failure
    2% die

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/17/coronavirus-causes-mild-disease-in-four-in-five-patients-says-who

    Nice number crunching by The Guardian...101%


  • #6731
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Speak Now wrote: »
    Nice number crunching by The Guardian...101%

    They're quoting the figures by the WHO


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  • #6732
    s7ryf3925pivug
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,999 ✭✭✭s7ryf3925pivug


    Speak Now wrote: »
    Nice number crunching by The Guardian...101%

    Rounding four values to the nearest whole number would mean it could add up to anything from 98% to 102% and still be accurate, just imprecise.

    I took the 2% who die to be a subset of the 5% who experience critical illness in this case.


  • #6733
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    Expect a large increase today in the number of infected:
    From today, WHO will be reporting all confirmed cases, including both laboratory-confirmed as previously reported, and those reported as clinically diagnosed (currently only applicable to Hubei province, China). From 13 February through 16 February, we reported only laboratory confirmed cases for Hubei province as mentioned in the situation report published on 13 February. The change in reporting is now shown in the figures. This accounts for the apparent large increase in cases compared to prior situation repor

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200217-sitrep-28-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=a19cf2ad_2


  • #6734
    Blud
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 439 ✭✭Blud


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Expect a large increase today in the number of infected:



    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200217-sitrep-28-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=a19cf2ad_2

    Well I for one fully expect tomorrow's Daily Mail to go to great lengths to convey this nuance.


  • #6735
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,579 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Blud wrote: »
    Well I for one fully expect tomorrow's Daily Mail to go to great lengths to convey this nuance.

    It drops the fatality number in closed cases to
    13% ... it has dropped exactly 1% per day since the WHO have boots on the ground...


  • #6736
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,485 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Certain posters on here who previously lauded the Chinese and WHO cooperation might want to rethink their stances, the chinese governments own propaganda wing has admitted the WHO team wont be going to Hubei



    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1179882.shtml


  • #6737
    tuxy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,980 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    It drops the fatality number in closed cases to
    13% ... it has dropped exactly 1% per day since the WHO have boots on the ground...

    That was always going to happen as there is about a 2 weeks lag on recovery time compared to fatality.


  • #6738
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,579 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    tuxy wrote: »
    That was always going to happen as there is about a 2 weeks lag on recovery time compared to fatality.

    And the number of infections doubling every 7 days...
    Until WHO arrived as well.
    Fabulous news!


  • #6739
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    The age demographics of those killed in China have finally been released.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f5h8j0/fatality_rate_of_covid19_in_different_age_groups/
    Very low death rate in those under 40. A whopping 50%+ in those over 70 though, and 30% in those aged 60-69, also quite surprisingly over 10% of those in their 50's hospitalised with the virus died


  • #6740
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    9117 are seriously ill and 1853 are critically ill

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1229539908487958528


  • #6741
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    Increases don’t appear to be in sync with what the WHO had warned about.


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  • #6742
    s7ryf3925pivug
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,999 ✭✭✭s7ryf3925pivug


    wakka12 wrote: »
    The age demographics of those killed in China have finally been released.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f5h8j0/fatality_rate_of_covid19_in_different_age_groups/
    Very low death rate in those under 40. A whopping 50%+ in those over 70 though, and 30% in those aged 60-69, also quite surprisingly over 10% of those in their 50's hospitalised with the virus died
    No deaths in 0-9 category and only one in 10-19. Great news.


  • #6743
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »
    No deaths in 0-9 category and only one in 10-19. Great news.

    Yes, but would make me worried about my grandparents who are all over 75. If it became pandemic, would be likely I'd lose a family member, or even two


  • #6744
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    wakka12 wrote: »
    The age demographics of those killed in China have finally been released.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f5h8j0/fatality_rate_of_covid19_in_different_age_groups/
    Very low death rate in those under 40. A whopping 50%+ in those over 70 though, and 30% in those aged 60-69, also quite surprisingly over 10% of those in their 50's hospitalised with the virus died

    Somewhat worrying for those of us with parents/relatives who are 60+.


  • #6745
    laurah591
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 326 ✭✭laurah591


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Yes, but would make me worried about my grandparents who are all over 75. If it became pandemic, would be likely I'd lose a family member, or even two

    Based on number of cases outside China, I'm hoping it won't get to pandemic stage.

    Although this report is worrying ... alot of healthcare professionals catching this virus. This doc was/is director of the hospital :(

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1229487338780286981


  • #6746
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Even though the numbers are going down a lot, I still dont understand, how can anyone even still be getting infected by this virus seeing as nobody in Wuhan can even go outside or go to work or do anything? What possible way could the infection still be being spread from person to person? In addition to people probably being scared out of their mind to touch anybody else in public and probably always washing their hands and surfaces and wearing masks. Shoudnt the number of new cases since such a harsh lockdown be extremely small?

    Would make you wonder how crazy high the number of infected people would be if there was no big government intervention, or if it was ignored or undetected for a lot longer, or if people were less afraid and just took less care to isolate and wash hands/surfaces, probably would be in the millions


  • #6747
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,022 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Even though the numbers are going down a lot, I still dont understand, how can anyone even still be getting infected by this virus seeing as nobody in Wuhan can even go outside or go to work or do anything? What possible way could the infection still be being spread from person to person? In addition to people probably being scared out of their mind to touch anybody else in public and probably always washing their hands and surfaces and wearing masks. Shoudnt the number of new cases since such a harsh lockdown be extremely small?

    People who are caring for those who are sick seem to be extremely vulnerable to infection, whether that's family members or health care workers. So it could be getting passed on that way rather than from outside. And anyone who has to attend a hospital, even for other reasons is probably high risk too.


  • #6748
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    This comment on Reddit made me laugh
    Turns out the way to beat the virus is to have the President declare it will be under control within two weeks, then the cases just start dropping like magic. Who knew?


  • #6749
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,579 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    fritzelly wrote: »
    This comment on Reddit made me laugh

    And replace the governer of hubei with someone who understands the stats required a little better? ..

    I'm a little depressed. I thought the new numbers coming from Wuhan and hubei were from the WHO... now, I'm not so sure ./


  • #6750
    tuxy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,980 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    ceadaoin. wrote: »
    People who are caring for those who are sick seem to be extremely vulnerable to infection, whether that's family members or health care workers. So it could be getting passed on that way rather than from outside. And anyone who has to attend a hospital, even for other reasons is probably high risk too.

    Also Wuhan is completely overwhelmed. People who may have been ill for a few weeks are only getting diagnosed now and still many more infected who are not officially diagnosed.


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  • #6751
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Somewhat worrying for those of us with parents/relatives who are 60+.

    I think most people in that age spread in Ireland (and Europe wide) will be fine (barring any underlying conditions that could lead to complications) - we are a pretty healthy society. That's is probably telling in that there is no real bad cases outside China where someone has caught it in Europe, even those Westerners that caught it in China have all seemed to recovered. (cue it's a targetted Asian virus)


This discussion has been closed.
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