Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus · 16-02-2020 02:58PM

AllForIt wrote: »

Incidentally it's kinda pitiful to hear the same old remainer arguments on this thread going round in circles ad infinitum.

Would it not be time to wrap up this thread up and start a thread on the UK after Brexit and what it means for the EU and Ireland. That would be more worthwhile I feel.

Whether or not this thread is closed, the new thread you suggest could be opened. You could open it yourself. Just sayin'.

AllForIt wrote: »

From an experimental point of view Brexit will serve to show how valuable it is to be in a political EU at all. Although I think we already know it's the nation's that are small that benefit the most and the larger economies that benefit the least.

Not necessarily. The UK has benefited hugely from EU membership - strong GDP growth (compared to what is was able to achieve outside the EU, before it joined) and massive growth in trade, to the point where the UK's trade, as a percentage of its GDP, grew steadily, and reached an all-time high in 2017 (though it has been coming down slightly since the the May government announced it would target a hard Brexit, obviously).

It's interesting that you phrase this as a comparison between the states that benefit the most, and those that benefit the least. Even those member 0states which benefit the least from membership (whichever states those are) still benefit, and would be would presumably be worse off if they were not members. From this point of view, leaving only makes sense if membership is actually detrimental to a member state.

Leroy42 · 16-02-2020 03:25PM

So what did the UK lose by being in the EU? Or, what will they gain?

Its weird, because previously it was argued that it was all a plot for Germany and France to control the rest, but apparently France and Germany are actually being ridden by the smaller countries.

Strazdas · 16-02-2020 03:26PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is really quite odd that the government continue to avoid publishing anything, and that the public don't seem to care.

They are happy to support a policy despite no actual plans, no projections, no targets.

Brexit was supposed to be done on 31st, they even had a celebration, and yet even now there is nothing concrete.

And it is slowing dawning on them, much like the implications of triggering A50 once the bravado had passed, just what the WA actually means. NI is essentially stuck in two custom regimes.

There are now select committees trying to work exactly what Johnson has agreed to and it is clearly very far from the Brexit he made it out to be.

Quite shocking really. Even political bloggers in the UK say they can't make head or tail of what Johnson and Cummings are up to with the EU and are wondering if disaster capitalism is the intended outcome. The British public seem beyond ignorant and not even interested in any of it.

RobMc59 · 16-02-2020 03:35PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Quite shocking really. Even political bloggers in the UK say they can't make head or tail of what Johnson and Cummings are up to with the EU and are wondering if disaster capitalism is the intended outcome. The British public seem beyond ignorant and not even interested in any of it.

Perhaps their strategy is to convince the EU that the UK is preparing to take it`s chances with a no deal brexit which will somehow pressure the EU into agreeing a `no strings` deal with the UK which allows them to cherry pick the bits they like and reject the troublesome bits they disagree with which of course is beyond `castles in the sky` stuff to anyone with a reasonable grasp of reality which does`nt include bozo bo jo and dominic`charge of the light brigade`cummings!

Peregrinus · 16-02-2020 04:07PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Perhaps their strategy is to convince the EU that the UK is preparing to take it`s chances with a no deal brexit which will somehow pressure the EU into agreeing a `no strings` deal with the UK which allows them to cherry pick the bits they like and reject the troublesome bits they disagree with which of course is beyond `castles in the sky` stuff to anyone with a reasonable grasp of reality which does`nt include bozo bo jo and dominic`charge of the light brigade`cummings!

This would make no sense at all. If the UK were willing to face a crash-out Brexit it could have done that on 31 January. They avoided it by signing the withdrawal agreement, but if they then choose a crash-out in December, all they will have done is paid tens of billions of euros to put off the crash-out for 11 months, and if you think a crash-out is an acceptable outcome why would you pay tens of millions of euros to delay it for 11 months?

Plus, it's worse that that. They could have had a crash-out in January on the basis that they didn't like the deal offered to them, so couldn't agree to it, so didn't. But if they crash out in December they still have to abide by the treaty that they have made, so NI still gets special treatment, there's an internal customs and regulatory border in the UK, etc, etc. And that lasts indefinitely, unless the NI Assembly decides to end it. So they'll have accepted that, and paid tens of billions of euros, and for what?

greenfield21 · 16-02-2020 04:20PM

Good to see the transport minister on Marr show
denying the ramours about the Chinese building hs2, he didn't rule it out though. Maybe this is part of been global and doing things differently which is what they want. He also said that the UK needs to rebuild it's own skilled labor to build infrastructure again which is also a positive.

murphaph · 16-02-2020 04:57PM

greenfield21 wrote: »

Good to see the transport minister on Marr show
denying the ramours about the Chinese building hs2, he didn't rule it out though. Maybe this is part of been global and doing things differently which is what they want. He also said that the UK needs to rebuild it's own skilled labor to build infrastructure again which is also a positive.

Being an EU member state didn't prevent either of those things of course.

swampgas · 16-02-2020 05:11PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

This would make no sense at all. If the UK were willing to face a crash-out Brexit it could have done that on 31 January. They avoided it by signing the withdrawal agreement, but if they then choose a crash-out in December, all they will have done is paid tens of billions of euros to put off the crash-out for 11 months, and if you think a crash-out is an acceptable outcome why would you pay tens of millions of euros to delay it for 11 months?

The country, i.e. the hapless taxpayer, will pay the billions to the EU, not Boris and his friends.

If I put on my tin-foil hat and think like a conspiracy theorist, I would say that the disaster capitalists behind Johnson are still putting everything in place to maximise the profit they can make. If they can spend the next 10 months placing all of their bets, having confidence that Johnson will pull the plug and trigger no deal at the end of the year (while maintaining lots of ambiguity in the meantime) they can maximise their gains.

It sounds far-fetched, but I'm struggling to find a better explanation.

16-02-2020 05:14PM

swampgas wrote: »

The country, i.e. the hapless taxpayer, will pay the billions to the EU, not Boris and his friends.

If I put on my tin-foil hat and think like a conspiracy theorist, I would say that the disaster capitalists behind Johnson are still putting everything in place to maximise the profit they can make. If they can spend the next 10 months placing all of their bets, having confidence that Johnson will pull the plug and trigger no deal at the end of the year (while maintaining lots of ambiguity in the meantime) they can maximise their gains.

It sounds far-fetched, but I'm struggling to find a better explanation.

Sounds plausible to me.

reslfj · 16-02-2020 08:48PM

AllForIt wrote: »

Although I think we already know it's the nation's that are small that benefit the most and the larger economies that benefit the least.

"[Danish Finance Minister Kristian] Jensen added: “There are two kinds of European nations. There are small nations and there are countries that have not yet realized they are small nations.” " /2017

https://www.politico.eu/article/kristian-jensen-brits-angry-at-danes-small-nation-jibe/

Lars

ThePanjandrum · 17-02-2020 01:05AM

reslfj wrote: »

"[Danish Finance Minister Kristian] Jensen added: “There are two kinds of European nations. There are small nations and there are countries that have not yet realized they are small nations.” " /2017

https://www.politico.eu/article/kristian-jensen-brits-angry-at-danes-small-nation-jibe/

Lars

He must have meant Germany and France.

ThePanjandrum · 17-02-2020 01:12AM

Tea Shock wrote: »

Interesting that Downing Street are still so reluctant to publish any non EU trade projections.

Great story by the Independent. Not only is it based on supposition but even if these studies had been done they would have been prepared under Hammond, no-one would expect them to say any different.

Personally I rank the Independent alongside the Daily Star for trustworthiness.

ancapailldorcha · 17-02-2020 01:30AM

Don't dump links here please. Post deleted.

Peregrinus · 17-02-2020 02:59AM

swampgas wrote: »

The country, i.e. the hapless taxpayer, will pay the billions to the EU, not Boris and his friends.

If I put on my tin-foil hat and think like a conspiracy theorist, I would say that the disaster capitalists behind Johnson are still putting everything in place to maximise the profit they can make. If they can spend the next 10 months placing all of their bets, having confidence that Johnson will pull the plug and trigger no deal at the end of the year (while maintaining lots of ambiguity in the meantime) they can maximise their gains.

It sounds far-fetched, but I'm struggling to find a better explanation.

An explanation that admittedly requires a tinfoil hat is never the best explanation.

Other explanations: 1. Johson has a track record of saying that he will never do something right up until the point he does it. I'm old enough to remember when he was never going to applyfor an extension of the Article 50 period, and when he was never going to accept a Withdrawal Agreement that would divide the UK, and when he was never going to fire Sajid Javid. This is more of that.

2. Johnson has no more commitment to Brexit than he has to Remain, or indeed to anything else. This complete lack of conviction, ironically, has the beneficial side-effect that his vision is never blinkered by his convictions. Therfore, he can perfectly well understand how damaging to the UK a crash-out would be, and how damaging to him that would in turn be. Therefore, the reason he took political risks and engaged in a climb-down in order to secure a WA is that he is, in fact, very anxious to avoid a crash-out, for pragmatic self-interested reasons. That won't change between now and December.

murphaph · 17-02-2020 07:32AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

He must have meant Germany and France.

Both have larger economies than the UK. Both realise they are small countries in an ever globalising world.

Leroy42 · 17-02-2020 08:00AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Great story by the Independent. Not only is it based on supposition but even if these studies had been done they would have been prepared under Hammond, no-one would expect them to say any different.

Personally I rank the Independent alongside the Daily Star for trustworthiness.

Are you not curious that Johnson has not published anything? Surely he is working off something more than just an idea?
You don't really believe that the UK government is effectively working blind since all civil service advice is biased against it's own government? Johnson has just given the go ahead for a 100bn+ HS2 project, but cannot have used any official studies?

Peregrinus · 17-02-2020 08:10AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Are you not curious that Johnson has not published anything? Surely he is working off something more than just an idea?
You don't really believe that the UK government is effectively working blind since all civil service advice is biased against it's own government? Johnson has just given the go ahead for a 100bn+ HS2 project, but cannot have used any official studies?

You must understand that, for Brexiters, failure to manifest politically correct thinking in relation to Brexit can only be accounted for by bias. Since any unbiased study must support a hard Brexit, we already know what unbiased studies must conclude. Why, therefore, waste time and taxpayers' money preparing, conducting and publishing them?

lawred2 · 17-02-2020 09:14AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

He must have meant Germany and France.

obviously

listermint · 17-02-2020 10:21AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

An explanation that admittedly requires a tinfoil hat is never the best explanation.

Other explanations: 1. Johson has a track record of saying that he will never do something right up until the point he does it. I'm old enough to remember when he was never going to applyfor an extension of the Article 50 period, and when he was never going to accept a Withdrawal Agreement that would divide the UK, and when he was never going to fire Sajid Javid. This is more of that.

2. Johnson has no more commitment to Brexit than he has to Remain, or indeed to anything else. This complete lack of conviction, ironically, has the beneficial side-effect that his vision is never blinkered by his convictions. Therfore, he can perfectly well understand how damaging to the UK a crash-out would be, and how damaging to him that would in turn be. Therefore, the reason he took political risks and engaged in a climb-down in order to secure a WA is that he is, in fact, very anxious to avoid a crash-out, for pragmatic self-interested reasons. That won't change between now and December.

Yes, however it's more problematic than that.

First his father..

And secondly the circles he pals around there's funny money and dubious circumstances involved so a bit of disaster capitalism goes hand in hand

ZeroThreat · 17-02-2020 12:41PM

murphaph wrote: »

Both have larger economies than the UK. Both realise they are small countries in an ever globalising world.

Germany yes, but I thought the French economy is far smaller than the British one, on par with Italy?

sondagefaux · 17-02-2020 12:45PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is really quite odd that the government continue to avoid publishing anything, and that the public don't seem to care.

They are happy to support a policy despite no actual plans, no projections, no targets.

Brexit was supposed to be done on 31st, they even had a celebration, and yet even now there is nothing concrete.

And it is slowing dawning on them, much like the implications of triggering A50 once the bravado had passed, just what the WA actually means. NI is essentially stuck in two custom regimes.

There are now select committees trying to work exactly what Johnson has agreed to and it is clearly very far from the Brexit he made it out to be.

Government of the ignorant, by the ignorant, for the ignorant.

Xertz · 17-02-2020 12:47PM

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Germany yes, but I thought the French economy is far smaller than the British one, on par with Italy?

Emm, no. The French economy is roughly the same size as the UK economy and has been a bit bigger than it in recent times due to weakening of value of Sterling.

The Italian economy isn’t all that much smaller than either of them.

Germany is significantly larger than any of those three countries.

These stats are easily available by just googling.

France tends to have slow growth rates but it’s a huge mixed economy. Despite the strikes and so on, it’s probably more robust than the UK as it’s a more diverse economy. The UK tends to be very focused on financial and services sectors. France would have a broader spread, especially industrial sectors and complex high value engineering - aerospace, car making, transit technologies, telecommunications tech, life sciences and biotech, power technologies etc etc there’s also a huge area around luxury goods with some of the world’s most prestigious brands and a massive food sector that has global reach.

France tends to get underestimated because of the relatively slow growth and the visible strikes and disruption but it’s a very significant economy and generally a very stable one.

17-02-2020 12:47PM

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Germany yes, but I thought the French economy is far smaller than the British one, on par with Italy?

ambro25 · 17-02-2020 12:52PM

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Germany yes, but I thought the French economy is far smaller than the British one, on par with Italy?

France is on par with the UK, and Italy is not far behind both (about $0.5tn PPP).

https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/

lawred2 · 17-02-2020 12:54PM

Deleted User wrote: »

only one of the 4 still sliding southwards

sondagefaux · 17-02-2020 01:01PM

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Germany yes, but I thought the French economy is far smaller than the British one, on par with Italy?

What? France's economy is roughly the same size as the UK economy. Depending on the US Dollar exchange rate, it has been bigger than the UK economy from time to time, if both are measured in US Dollars.

https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/france

US$2,780,152 million, or just under $2.8 trillion.

https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/uk

US$2,824,850 million, or just over $2.8 trillion

Using those figures, French GDP was approximately $44.7 million lower than UK GDP in 2019, a trivial amount in the context of total GDP.

France has also got a slightly smaller population than the UK, so GDP per capita is similar.

A visit to both France and the UK in quick succession would demonstrate that they're both about as wealthy on average as each other, that wealth is more unevenly distributed in the UK, and more concentrated in the form of private property, particularly residential property, whereas in France it's more visibly used for the public realm, notably infrastructure and especially public transport.

reslfj · 17-02-2020 04:04PM

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Germany yes, but I thought the French economy is far smaller than the British one, on par with Italy?

This is from Wikipedia on Jan 31. 2020
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economy_of_the_European_Union&oldid=938410941

Lars

Igotadose · 17-02-2020 09:38PM

another Brexiteer nim heard from, David Frost, on how the UK aren't going to sign up to a level playing field: ""So to think that we might accept EU supervision on so called level playing field issues simply fails to see the point of what we are doing.

"It isn’t a simple negotiating position which might move under pressure – it is the point of the whole project. "

That'd be project what? Project fail?

Really it's 'stop me before I shoot myself' style of negotiation yet again.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/0217/1115882-trade-brexit-uk-eu/

CelticRambler · 17-02-2020 10:21PM

This bit seems to hit the Brexit nail on the head:

"So if it is true ... that the EU wants a durable and sustainable relationship in this highly sensitive area, the only way forward is to build on this approach of a relationship of equals."

So there you have it: the United Kingdom of England and other bits (but they're not particularly important) is an "equal" to the consensual Union of 27 European sovereign, independent states.

Strazdas · 17-02-2020 11:04PM

Igotadose wrote: »

another Brexiteer nim heard from, David Frost, on how the UK aren't going to sign up to a level playing field: ""So to think that we might accept EU supervision on so called level playing field issues simply fails to see the point of what we are doing.

"It isn’t a simple negotiating position which might move under pressure – it is the point of the whole project. "

That'd be project what? Project fail?

Really it's 'stop me before I shoot myself' style of negotiation yet again.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/0217/1115882-trade-brexit-uk-eu/

This would be the project dreamt up by Nigel Farage and the OAPs on Clacton Pier I take it? What a way for the country to run itself.

Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

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