Ridiculous #GE2020 promises

Kellyconor1982 wrote: »

I can't see Metrolink being cancelled. The green party tds and fianna fail tds like lahart will be trying to push for more pt also in their areas. Sinn Fein are promising the world and Fine Gael have been punished for not spending enough. Whoever is in government in the coming months will not put prudence as a priority.

I don't support any party but gave my vote to the green party. My gut feeling is that the next government will want big projects to show it's making a difference. Not good for the national debt, but good for transport etc.

Transport (in the right places) is good for the national debt. Its an investment that pays you back many times over financially, socially and mentally as people spend more time working/enjoying selves than sitting in queues.

Kellyconor1982 wrote: »

Yeah I completely agree. However, I can see Sinn Fein spending gigantic amounts on projects to really make a statement and that was my point.

I dont think this is a bad thing, when the alternative here is, the usual, i.e. spent on ****!

Kellyconor1982 wrote: »

Yeah I completely agree. However, I can see Sinn Fein spending gigantic amounts on projects to really make a statement and that was my point.

SF won't be in power on their own, if they do play a part in the next government.

Dats me wrote: »

FF+SF gives only 75. With Greens they've a majority of 6 and relative stability (although Ryan, Martin and McDonald negotiating a budget would be a sight to see) with SD or Labour they've only a majority of 1. Which is a bit less stable - you're right though Greens don't have much power. SDs are probably nearly as good in transport though just don't oppose road building as much

Deals can be made and kept with all the mercs and perks on the line.

The buzz of power, the access, the meetings, the money, can all help keep things in place.

Zebra3 wrote: »

Deals can be made and kept with all the mercs and perks on the line.

The buzz of power, the access, the meetings, the money, can all help keep things in place.

But when their parties' aims are so divergent I can't see it even forming. For example SF's policy on things like Farming and burning peat is to just keep at what we're currently doing, except spend more government money on it with a vague notion of becoming more environmentally friendly at some stage in the future. There's no way the greens will accept that.

Probably the most ridiculous promises have come in relation to housing. The housing shortage is obviously a huge issue and everyone is claiming that they can fix it. SF say they will build 100,000 social houses over five years while FF claimed they would build 200,000 homes (but this includes private development).

CSO has today published figures on housing completions for Q4 2019;

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ndc/newdwellingcompletionsq42019/

Apartment completions up 72.2% quarter-on-quarter from Q4 2018 - 726 to 1,250.

Total completions for the year are 21,241 which is up 18.3% on last year overall.

Construction of units is increasing at least which should help close the gap between supply and demand. IMO a combination of the Strategic Housing Development planning system (fast-tracked going straight to ABP), allowing for increased heights and densities and revised apartment regulations (e.g. number of lift cores, dual aspect ratio, etc.) introduced by Eoghan Murphy are facilitating this increase in construction. I can't see the new government (whatever the make up) doing anything to actually improve things further, they will most likely claim the credit for any improvement coming from what is already happening. Any further market interference will have to be carefully done as it has the potential to damage new construction, in which case supply will never catch up with demand.

The Rebuilding Ireland website contains quarterly updates on Social Housing Construction;

https://rebuildingireland.ie/news/minister-murphy-publishes-social-housing-construction-status-report-for-q3-2019/

The latest Construction Status Report shows that:

There were 6,499 social homes are onsite nationwide at end September.

There were just under 23,000 (22,721) homes in the pipeline, up more than 19% on the pipeline in place coming into 2019.

The full report lists every housing development and what stage it is at (from Stage 1 Capital Appraisal to Completion). Again, the new government won't actually have a hand in delivering those units but will no doubt be all over any ribbon cutting. Building 100,000 in five years would require doubling the delivery of units each year but any additional units will take a couple of years before they reach construction so realistically you need to be hitting far higher completion rates in years 3, 4 and 5 to hit that target.

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Probably the most ridiculous promises have come in relation to housing. The housing shortage is obviously a huge issue and everyone is claiming that they can fix it. SF say they will build 100,000 social houses over five years while FF claimed they would build 200,000 homes (but this includes private development).

CSO has today published figures on housing completions for Q4 2019;

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ndc/newdwellingcompletionsq42019/

Apartment completions up 72.2% quarter-on-quarter from Q4 2018 - 726 to 1,250.

Total completions for the year are 21,241 which is up 18.3% on last year overall.

Construction of units is increasing at least which should help close the gap between supply and demand. IMO a combination of the Strategic Housing Development planning system (fast-tracked going straight to ABP), allowing for increased heights and densities and revised apartment regulations (e.g. number of lift cores, dual aspect ratio, etc.) introduced by Eoghan Murphy are facilitating this increase in construction. I can't see the new government (whatever the make up) doing anything to actually improve things further, they will most likely claim the credit for any improvement coming from what is already happening. Any further market interference will have to be carefully done as it has the potential to damage new construction, in which case supply will never catch up with demand.

The Rebuilding Ireland website contains quarterly updates on Social Housing Construction;

https://rebuildingireland.ie/news/minister-murphy-publishes-social-housing-construction-status-report-for-q3-2019/



The full report lists every housing development and what stage it is at (from Stage 1 Capital Appraisal to Completion). Again, the new government won't actually have a hand in delivering those units but will no doubt be all over any ribbon cutting. Building 100,000 in five years would require doubling the delivery of units each year but any additional units will take a couple of years before they reach construction so realistically you need to be hitting far higher completion rates in years 3, 4 and 5 to hit that target.

I 100% agree with you regarding the next government taking credit for the good work of previous governments and to add also blaming them for all mistakes.

I kind of get what you are saying about Eoghan Murphy’s changes but the increase in building heights has driven up the viability of hotels and office space which is actually driving up labour costs for housing.

I completely disagree with you that the next government won’t be able to do more to improve the situation. There is countless things they could do such as:
1. Reducing capital gains tax on residential zoned land
2. Government decentralisation
3. Actually building large scale housing themselves
4. Investing in capital infrastructure such as public transport which will encourage development
5. Dropping VAT on construction materials (look at the effect this had on tourism sector)
6. Expansion of the local infrastructure housing activation fund
7. Funding student accommodation in 3rd level institutions
Etc etc

FG were in power for 9 years and have somehow managed turned a housing surplus into large scale homelessness by their inaction and unwillingness to invest. Any fool could have seen this happening and yet they didn’t react quick enough.

Last Stop wrote: »

FG were in power for 9 years and have somehow managed turned a housing surplus into large scale homelessness by their inaction and unwillingness to invest. Any fool could have seen this happening and yet they didn’t react quick enough.

They didn't do anything because they didn't want to.

Their buddies filled their boots.

Land that was previous deemed unsuitable for housing suddenly was.

Ching ching ching.

dublinman1990 wrote: »

Did SF have any ministers for transport in the NI Executive?

They did indeed, Chris Hazzard was previously Minister of Infrastructure, he made the announcement of the NI Greenway network and Pushed to advance the (admittedly fairly advanced already) A6 projects which are now under construction and the A5 project which is still not at shovel phase due to some fairly strong landowner opposition.

Excepting the A6 all his projects have stalled, but I don't think he can be held personally responsible for that given the 3 year hiatus ever since...

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think the interest that political parties have in property prices is to safeguard the votes of their supporters that own their own house. They have little regard for the yield of the LPT.

That is the point I was making.

Zebra3 wrote: »

Interesting despite all the talk of quality of life as an issue amongst voters especially in the Dublin commuter belt, infrastructure didn’t get a look in as an issue.

Yup I don’t understand how it is not an issue as it’s something that is directly related to housing. Towns and villages and residential areas formed over the years beside rivers and major links/roads because a successful town needs good transport links in order to allow movement of people.

Naas built 827 new homes in 2019, up from 602 in 2018, according to the national statistics office. This is more than any other area of the country. And yet, the N7 will remain congested, it will be excluded from DART expansion, it receives nothing from BusConnects, the trains are overcrowded (they aren’t even trains designed for commuter journeys cause no forward planning) and Naas also remains with the same terrible bus services it has had for the last two decades. Awful awful planning by the Irish government here.

I see in so many European countries, many far poorer than Ireland, planning way in advance with transport hubs and train stations and bus routes, etc. being installed way in advance of extra housing or apartments. It seems in Ireland we build and fast track thousands of homes and years later conduct feasibility studies after these public facilities are years overdue. (Fine Gael’s favourite activity)

Of course it’s not just transport, it’s healthcare, GPs, school places and so much more. Although I happen to believe that sitting in traffic for hours to move a few kilometres each day just hinders quality of life more than most things.

Sam Russell wrote: »

You are proposing a Poll tax.

Ronan Lyons makes a good point - the LPT should be set at about 1% of current value, as is done in other wealthy countries. This would fund local gov so it might actually be able to provide services at a local level.

The poll tax is regressive - hitting the poor most. It was why Thatcher proposed it for the UK, and if the voter did not pay, they were off the voting register thus suppressing the Labour vote.

LPT taxes some who pay no other direct tax. It can be deferred for those elderly who cannot pay.

LPT needs to work - if it raises too much, the Gov could reduce other taxes. (Some chance).

these "poor" you talk of, would get far less in other countries and pay more. They are one of the prime reasons, that so many hard workers are screwed themselves here. That is exactly what I suggest a poll tax. My gf LPT is E90, they give away E260 most years to everyone on welfare, with the welfare hike. I dont see the point of having an LPT, with the current pittance it generates and the abuse of the system, as lyons points out. obviously those in social housing dont pay it etc. Scrap it, it benefits and rightfully so, those already paying in, far more than they should...

scrapping a property tax, anywhere else would be seen as insanity! but in ireland, the system is insane, introduce it and it becomes a ticking time bomb, being passed around a circle, nobody wants to increase it etc... get rid of it, it bring in 500,000,000 a year, the waste far more than that on budget increases every year