GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Loafing Oaf · 15-02-2020 11:48AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If this coalition comes to pass, it will be a really clear platform to campaign on next time out, whenever that may be.

A vote for either FF or FG is now most definitely a vote for a FF/FG government.

From FF's point of view, a (roughly equal) partnership with FG would be some sort of place for them in the political landscape. If they went in with SF this time they could well end up with none at all.

Jim O'Callaghan nailed their current position: “My own view is going in with Fine Gael we would be in trouble and going in with Sinn Féin we would be in severe trouble.”

Billcarson · 15-02-2020 11:50AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Not if they fix what's annoying people.

Which they probably wont, I have little or no faith in them.

amadangomor · 15-02-2020 11:53AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Not if they fix what's annoying people.

Yes, hopefully will focus minds and get more done so people actually can see the improvements they make. Think a lot of stuff that FG have done well on is intangible to a lot of people.

They fixed the economy and prevented us becoming a basket case but they didn't get credit as people don't realise how bad things could have been. The last 3/4 years were taken up with Brexit and social progression referendums etc but they are getting no credit for that either as people who are living with their parents in their 30s only care about their prospects of being able to afford a house.

is_that_so · 15-02-2020 11:54AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Which is fairly rich coming from a FG TD. Who've ruled out any coalition

I wouldn't mind TDs thinking they have a brain the size of a planet! The party haven't actually, just stated that they are more than likely going for opinion and that the numbers don't really work for a C&S. Latest in the Indo suggests they'll be open to talking about a rotating Taoiseach, with some conditions.

Loafing Oaf · 15-02-2020 11:58AM

robwen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BGriffinTD/status/1228299643613851648?s=19

Haven't Labour ruled themselves out, which means SF would need virtually all the Indos? FF and FG just want SF to make themselves look ridiculous by trying to recruit Noel Grealish and Danny Healy Rae to the cause of International Socialism.

McMurphy · 15-02-2020 12:00PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Not if they fix what's annoying people.

If they fix what's annoying people just to keep out the shinners well then that's a very serious flaw in our political system that needs to be taken out at the root.

amadangomor · 15-02-2020 12:06PM

McMurphy wrote: »

If they fix what's annoying people just to keep out the shinners well then that's a very serious flaw in our political system that needs to be taken out at the root.

Yeh. It's called democracy. The flip side is it allows populism that Sinn Fein has used to their advantage by promising the Earth, Moon and Stars.

ted1 · 15-02-2020 12:06PM

robwen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BGriffinTD/status/1228299643613851648?s=19

PBP don’t want to go into power. They want to shout from the opposition bench

Bill 2.0 · 15-02-2020 12:09PM

McMurphy wrote: »

If they fix what's annoying people just to keep out the shinners well then that's a very serious flaw in our political system that needs to be taken out at the root.

That's just parish pump politics though.

"Billy Bigbollix fixed the roads so he gets my number 1!"

NIMAN · 15-02-2020 12:13PM

Who gets to decide on forming a Government?

For example, say FF/FG/Greens come up with an agreement for a coalition but at the same time SF/Greens/PBP and all the others also agree they would form a coalition, who gets to take control? Whats the rules?

amadangomor · 15-02-2020 12:16PM

NIMAN wrote: »

Who gets to decide on forming a Government?

For example, say FF/FG/Greens come up with an agreement for a coalition but at the same time SF/Greens/PBP and all the others also agree they would form a coalition, who gets to take control? Whats the rules?

The Dail would vote for a Taoiseach. Not sure if they vote for a cabinet or not.

shesty · 15-02-2020 12:18PM

NIMAN wrote: »

Who gets to decide on forming a Government?

For example, say FF/FG/Greens come up with an agreement for a coalition but at the same time SF/Greens/PBP and all the others also agree they would form a coalition, who gets to take control? Whats the rules?

Also curious about this. Maybe it's whoever has the bigger majority??

ted1 · 15-02-2020 12:19PM

NIMAN wrote: »

Who gets to decide on forming a Government?

For example, say FF/FG/Greens come up with an agreement for a coalition but at the same time SF/Greens/PBP and all the others also agree they would form a coalition, who gets to take control? Whats the rules?

Whoever gets 81 TDs supporting them

McMurphy · 15-02-2020 12:25PM

amadangomor wrote: »

Yeh. It's called democracy. The flip side is it allows populism that Sinn Fein has used to their advantage by promising the Earth, Moon and Stars.

You have missed the point, it speaks volumes that two of the other big three now will only tackle the national crises in the country for fear of a different party coming into power which they have swapped between themselves for close to a century.

Govts are elected to serve the electorate, fixing these things should have been higher up their list of priorities, not just because the shinners are stealing their votes.

Bill 2.0 wrote: »

That's just parish pump politics though.

"Billy Bigbollix fixed the roads so he gets my number 1!"

You just demonstrated that you have absolutely no clue what the phrase "parish pump politics" means Bill, and you should feel bad for yourself

Plumbthedepths · 15-02-2020 12:25PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Which is fairly rich coming from a FG TD. Who've ruled out any coalition

Brendan obviously isn't aware that like FG, Labour have also ran off the pitch to the sidelines.

robwen · 15-02-2020 12:28PM

NIMAN wrote: »

Who gets to decide on forming a Government?

For example, say FF/FG/Greens come up with an agreement for a coalition but at the same time SF/Greens/PBP and all the others also agree they would form a coalition, who gets to take control? Whats the rules?

In that scenario the Greens would decide

dxhound2005 · 15-02-2020 12:30PM

McMurphy wrote: »

You have missed the point, it speaks volumes that two of the other big three now will only tackle the national crises in the country for fear of a different party coming into power which they have swapped between themselves for close to a century.

Govts are elected to serve the electorate, fixing these things should have been higher up their list of priorities, not just because the shinners are stealing their votes.

They also have to ensure that things don't get worse. Change would turn out to be a bit of a hollow victory, if the Change resulted in 15% unemployment for instance. The laws of unintended consequences can easily come into play. Change just for the sake of Change is not a policy.

easypazz · 15-02-2020 12:34PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Which is fairly rich coming from a FG TD. Who've ruled out any coalition

Purely because they lost the election.

Loafing Oaf · 15-02-2020 12:37PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Which is fairly rich coming from a FG TD. Who've ruled out any coalition

No they haven't. All the talk about 'rebuilding in opposition' is just post-election posturing, designed to give the impression a FF-SF government was a likely outcome of the election.

NIMAN · 15-02-2020 12:40PM

robwen wrote: »

In that scenario the Greens would decide

Is this correct?

Thats why they were calling the Green kingmakers last week?

FrancieBrady · 15-02-2020 12:40PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

From FF's point of view, a (roughly equal) partnership with FG would be some sort of place for them in the political landscape. If they went in with SF this time they could well end up with none at all.

Jim O'Callaghan nailed their current position: “My own view is going in with Fine Gael we would be in trouble and going in with Sinn Féin we would be in severe trouble.”

Why would anyone put faith in the views of party strategists (O'Callaghan being a senior party member) that have led FG and FF to the lowest vote share they have ever received? FG to their worst performance since 1948 and FF completely unable to capitalise?
Surely both of them should be thinking of a radical change of direction or they hit the rocks completely.

Loafing Oaf · 15-02-2020 12:48PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why would anyone put faith in the views of party strategists (O'Callaghan being a senior party member) that have led FG and FF to the lowest vote share they have ever received? FG to their worst performance since 1948 and FF completely unable to capitalise?
Surely both of them should be thinking of a radical change of direction or they hit the rocks completely.

Because there's very good reason to believe hooking up with SF could make things a whole lot worse for FF.

Suckit · 15-02-2020 12:53PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Because there's very good reason to believe hooking up with SF could make things a whole lot worse for FF.

As opposed to....?
If they think things won't get a whole lot worse hooking up with each other, they are grossly misunderestimating the public.

Suckit · 15-02-2020 12:55PM

robwen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BGriffinTD/status/1228299643613851648?s=19

What's that about?

IngazZagni · 15-02-2020 12:59PM

Suckit wrote: »

What's that about?

Way too fractured. Too much self interest. One of them will pull the plug when they don’t get it their way and we are back to the polls.

FrancieBrady · 15-02-2020 01:02PM

Suckit wrote: »

As opposed to....?
If they think things won't get a whole lot worse hooking up with each other, they are grossly misunderestimating the public.

They don't seem to get it that 'circling the wagons', is likely to further weaken them.

It would damage them to now go in with SF...my point is that that was the wrong strategy to go into the campaign with.
Like the DUP, they cannot seem to see beyond their hidebound bubbles.

Loafing Oaf · 15-02-2020 01:04PM

Suckit wrote: »

As opposed to....?
If they think things won't get a whole lot worse hooking up with each other, they are grossly misunderestimating the public.

Going forward, there's guaranteed to be a conservative/centrist/anti-SF bloc of at least one-third of the electorate. Worst-case scenario, FF comes out of a coalition with FG with the support of a bit less than half of that bloc, so roughly where they were in 2011.
If they did a deal with SF, they could easily end up with no constituency at all.

olestoepoke · 15-02-2020 03:39PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The Daily Mail guide to Irish elections! :rolleyes:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8005639/DAVID-JONES-IRA-seize-power-Ireland.html

More propaganda. The war is over. The politics of this country is steeped in armed conflict. All the major parties at one time or another were involved in fighting but because SF is more recent well over 20 years ago it is used as a propaganda weapon. All getting a bit tedious really. The Irish Times, RTE and others were all part of the propaganda machine in the week before the election but it didn't work. I'd argue it did more harm than good to their cause. People seen right through their shameless propaganda campaign. I hope theres another election SF will get my 1st and 2nd vote and ill fill the ballot right down with every candidate except FF and FG. About time this country fought back with people power.

charlie14 · 15-02-2020 03:39PM

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Maybe you are right.

I don't think all of their voters hate SF though.

Perhaps not, but then perhaps not all of that 24.5% of those that voted SF hate either of the other two either. Eight months ago in the local elections the SF vote was 9.5%.
SF hit on the message vote for change without even believing themselves it would resonate with voters the way it did. Lets be honest here, running 42 candidates was more about holding what they had than making gains.
That message over-shadowed everything else in the campaign, with essentially the floating vote.
If there is a re-run of the election then there is more than a fair chance that floating vote will be looking more to the bones of message of all parties as to what changes they propose and how they will be paid for.
Something imo that were gone into in very little detail this time out.

charlie14 · 15-02-2020 03:45PM

olestoepoke wrote: »

More propaganda. The war is over. The politics of this country is steeped in armed conflict. All the parties at one time or another were involved in fighting but because SF is more recent well over 20 years ago it is used as a propaganda weapon. All getting a bit tedious really. The Irish Times, RTE and others were all part of the propaganda machine in the week before the election but it didn't work. I'd argue it did more harm than good to their cause. People seen right through their shameless propaganda campaign. I hope theres another election SF will get my 1st and 2nd vote and ill fill the ballot right down with every candidate except FF and FG. About time this country fought back with people power.

You might be as well to leave out IS/PBP as well.
Mick Barry today on RTE radio was calling for people to take to the streets if there is not a government made up of only left wing parties.

GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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