GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Plumbthedepths · 13-02-2020 08:11PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

Mary Lou leader of the opposition so. Plenty of speaking time to call out Tweedledum and Tweedledee.

Being saying for a while now, SF will be more than happy to occupy the position of largest opposition party. It will force FF/ FG and who whoever is gullible enough to join them to get the finger out and deliver for their employers.

dxhound2005 · 13-02-2020 08:11PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

The system we have does not guarantee any party a place in government unless they get at least half the seats plus 1. SF got 37 seat and just under 25 % of the vote. They have no divine right to be in power, it is just the way our system works. Many may think that the party that gets the biggest % share of the vote should be in government but they cannot form a stable coalition so it looks like FF/FG and greens.

There is not much left to fix now, with full employment and low emigration. Negative equity mostly gone, and low inflation. So they could do a bit on the housing by using the 200,000 empty properties, and struggle on with the HSE. Then near the election time give the pensioners a very big increase. That might put a big hole in the SF agenda, and get them back in again.

FrancieBrady · 13-02-2020 08:12PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

The system we have does not guarantee any party a place in government unless they get at least half the seats plus 1. SF got 37 seat and just under 25 % of the vote. They have no divine right to be in power, it is just the way our system works. Many may think that the party that gets the biggest % share of the vote should be in government but SF cannot form a stable coalition so it looks like FF/FG and greens.

Bit premature to be calling the next gov. FF FG + Greens.

Big decision for the Greens to make here.
And FG could be signing the wipe out of the party again if things go pear shaped.

Will be fun to watch the squirming/positioning.

Fann Linn · 13-02-2020 08:13PM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

There is not much left to fix now, with full employment and low emigration. Negative equity mostly gone, and low inflation. So they could do a bit on the housing by using the 200,000 empty properties, and struggle on with the HSE. Then near the election time give the pensioners a very big increase. That might put a big hole in the SF agenda, and get them back in again.

You have it sorted. '.. Not much left to fix... '
ðŸ˜‚

jos28 · 13-02-2020 08:14PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

What bull. Just to make you aware on some very basic info. Eamonn Ryan has nothing to do with SD and secondly, Roisin Shorthall is far more clever than to fall for such a ridiculous proposal or suggestion.

I look forward to Ryan and his shower taking the rap again for FF.

I am well aware of who Eamonn Ryan is, if you read my post again you might deduce that I suggested the GP use the SDs as a buffer.

dxhound2005 · 13-02-2020 08:15PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

You have it sorted. '.. Not much left to fix... '
&#55357;&#56834;

There used to be no big issue about homelessness even though there were just as many people homeless. It was inflation, unemployment and emigration. They are gone now, so there is a lot less to fix.

Plumbthedepths · 13-02-2020 08:16PM

jos28 wrote: »

I am well aware of who Eamonn Ryan is, if you read my post again you might deduce that I suggested the GP use the SDs as a buffer.

Neither Roisin or Catherine are that stupid.

charlie14 · 13-02-2020 08:17PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I think it depends on whether voters do reflect on how it's turned out. If some do shift away from SF then we are back to FF or FG. Even if they stay SF being able to repeat that and get a lot more seats will be a challenge.

Especially that by fielding more candidates to take advantage of their surpluses in constituencies will be endangering others from the left that picked up seats on the back of those surpluses.
To not come back to the same situation we are in now, would require SF raising their first preference vote substantially.

dxhound2005 · 13-02-2020 08:19PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Neither Roisin or Catherine are that stupid.

Indeed. They both know when it is time to jump ship from whatever party they are in for the time being.

Brendan Bendar · 13-02-2020 08:19PM

dark crystal wrote: »

Not going by first preference votes. Not by a long shot. Many of those shutting out SF and negotiating the formation of a government barely got elected by the skin of their teeth.

Anyone who denies the amount of people who voted for change is seriously deluding themselves and the voters won't forget it.

How do you establish the scenario that people ‘voted for change’and that suddenly other people who voted for other parties voted also voted for change??

Can you square that circle for us.

To me anyway, a poor auld tosser, it’s very close and inconclusive.

You need to tell us how you arrive at your conclusions.

Fann Linn · 13-02-2020 08:19PM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

There used to be no big issue about homelessness even though there were just as many people homeless. It was inflation, unemployment and emigration. They are gone now, so there is a lot less to fix.

I never said there was a homeless problem.
There is a housing problem however.

Spanish Eyes · 13-02-2020 08:20PM

dark crystal wrote: »

Same old two party system abides so. Why bother voting at all?

A clear vote for change obviously means nothing to our FFG masters.

Sorry what?

Did you read what you just said?

If SF could form a government they would and should. It is not the fault of anyone else. Honestly.

Plumbthedepths · 13-02-2020 08:22PM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Indeed. They both know when it is time to jump ship from whatever party they are in for the time being.

Roisin's departure from Labour was well documented and if you bothered to do a little research you wouldn't have made such an ignorant comment.
Although I suppose if one has no principles it's confusing when presented with them in others.

Fann Linn · 13-02-2020 08:22PM

jos28 wrote: »

I am well aware of who Eamonn Ryan is, if you read my post again you might deduce that I suggested the GP use the SDs as a buffer.

And do you really really think that the SDs would fall for your cunning plan?

dxhound2005 · 13-02-2020 08:23PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

I never said there was a homeless problem.
There is a housing problem however.

It could be solved. We have many people from Dublin who bought properties in commuter land. Other people from Dublin would be no worse off, if they chose to swap a hotel room for a property away from Dublin. Funded by whatever process is keeping them in their current accommodation.

As a temporary solution of course, while their new house is being built in Dublin.

Brendan Bendar · 13-02-2020 08:23PM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Indeed. They both know when it is time to jump ship from whatever party they are in for the time being.

As Patk Rabbitte once said, and I’ll misquote ‘ They know which side their parsnips are buttered on’

Most important item for them it is reported is the wedge with the Harp on it.

dark crystal · 13-02-2020 08:24PM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

There is not much left to fix now, with full employment and low emigration. Negative equity mostly gone, and low inflation. So they could do a bit on the housing by using the 200,000 empty properties, and struggle on with the HSE. Then near the election time give the pensioners a very big increase. That might put a big hole in the SF agenda, and get them back in again.

Ah, of course! That's their usual modus operandi alright. Deja Vú.

I'd think it's the younger voters they need on side going forward, not the ones already loyal. Housing, the number one issue faced by younger people going into this election, will define their success or failure imo.

Plumbthedepths · 13-02-2020 08:26PM

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

As Patk Rabbitte once said, and I’ll misquote ‘ They know which side their parsnips are buttered on’

Most important item for them it is reported is the wedge with the Harp on it.

Noonan actually said 'that butters no parnips' . Pat Rabbitte is known for saying when confronted with broken electoral promises 'thats what you tend to do during an election" make promises.

Fann Linn · 13-02-2020 08:26PM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It could be solved. We have many people from Dublin who bought properties in commuter land. Other people from Dublin would be no worse off, if they chose to swap a hotel room for a property away from Dublin. Funded by whatever process is keeping them in their current accommodation.

As a temporary solution of course, while their new house is being built in Dublin.

Back to square 1 so. Fg haven't solved it and have been in power for the last 9 years. Going back into govt again with FFwont make any difference?

Plumbthedepths · 13-02-2020 08:27PM

dark crystal wrote: »

Ah, of course! That's their usual modus operandi alright. Deja Vú.

I'd think it's the younger voters they need on side going forward, not the ones already loyal. Housing, the number one issue faced by younger people going into this election, will define their success or failure imo.

I heard a good analogy today 'once bought, stay bought'.

jos28 · 13-02-2020 08:28PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

And do you really really think that the SDs would fall for your cunning plan?

I was being somewhat facetious, apologies for not having my sarcasm monitor switched on. Of course I don't think the SDs are stupid, I actually voted for the SD candidate in my constituency.

dark crystal · 13-02-2020 08:29PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Sorry what?

Did you read what you just said?

If SF could form a government they would and should. It is not the fault of anyone else. Honestly.

Of course I read it, I'm not remedial. Nor are you, so why feign the confusion?

SF could indeed form a government, however FFG (two party system) refuse to engage with them. Get it now?

cameramonkey · 13-02-2020 08:30PM

dxhound2005 wrote: »

There is not much left to fix now, with full employment and low emigration. Negative equity mostly gone, and low inflation. So they could do a bit on the housing by using the 200,000 empty properties, and struggle on with the HSE. Then near the election time give the pensioners a very big increase. That might put a big hole in the SF agenda, and get them back in again.

They wont though. FG seem ideologically apposed to giving poor people free houses and want to get a rub on the belly from their vulture fund buddies, FF will be in the pockets of the developers, they cant help it that's the way they are are and the Greens are oblivious to anything other than climate change. Hoping for some radical change on housing policy myself but wont happen under those lads.

dxhound2005 · 13-02-2020 08:31PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

Back to square 1 so. Fg haven't solved it and have been in power for the last 9 years. Going back into govt again with FFwont make any difference?

Not back to square one. Using some of the 200,000 empty properties, or buying some of the cheap properties away from Dublin. The people relocating will be in the same position as private buyers from Dublin who will be their neighbours.

And again only until their new houses in Dublin are built and ready for them to occupy.

Brendan Bendar · 13-02-2020 08:31PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Noonan actually said 'that butters no parnips' . Pat Rabbitte is known for saying when confronted with broken electoral promises 'thats what you tend to do during an election" make promises.

Incorrect

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/labour-refocus-after-poll-showing-29161009.html

The Rape of Lucretia · 13-02-2020 08:32PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

Back to square 1 so. Fg haven't solved it and have been in power for the last 9 years. Going back into govt again with FFwont make any difference?

I think it will. Things might not be all people desire. Whether that is considered failure or success is only relative. The important thing is to have your best people at the helm - fundamentally, thats the question posed us at elections. Choose the best, and at least you can be comfortable that whatever eventuates, at least its the best of the possible outcomes. FF, FG, and I dont discount the Greens as just makeweights, will be a good combination I think. The nation is in safe hands. The risk of rejoining the north in an unstatisfactory union fades. Democracy is a dangerous game, but when it works, like this one, it is satisfying.

cameramonkey · 13-02-2020 08:33PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Bit premature to be calling the next gov. FF FG + Greens.

Big decision for the Greens to make here.
And FG could be signing the wipe out of the party again if things go pear shaped.

Will be fun to watch the squirming/positioning.

I am speculating like everyone but FF and FG seem dead set against SF so no
other option. Apart from being in a majority in government it is maybe the position would SF most desire, number one opposition party.

omega man · 13-02-2020 08:37PM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

FF/FG+ here we come.

SF will annihilate them in a few years if they play their cards right.

What if they get their act together and make strides in housing, health etc?
Thats a risk from SF. In a few years they might be less relevant.

dxhound2005 · 13-02-2020 08:38PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

I am speculating like everyone but FF and FG seem dead set against SF so no
other option. Apart from being in a majority in government it is maybe the position would most desire, number one opposition party.

And with the mood in the country, if a FFG government completely solved the housing problem, and got the health system into good shape, SF would still increase their vote next time because The People Want Change.

Sir Oxman · 13-02-2020 08:40PM

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

How do you establish the scenario that people ‘voted for change’and that suddenly other people who voted for other parties voted also voted for change??

Well, we have to take FF's Michael & FG's Leo words for that and every single one of their TDs too.
I know, I know.
A bit of a stretch but there we are.

GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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