GE Exit Poll 10 pm

rolling boh wrote: »

Think either of Ff or Fg would be mad to go in with Sf policies to far apart would probably leave them with about 20 seats next time .Even if one of them got involved with a dolly mixture set up the other would be delighted as they would have a free run in opposition.

Well FFG have to do one or the other? Otherwise they’re asking the electorate to sort it out.

Suckit wrote: »

I'm not telling you anything other than FG keep repeating the same line.

"The people voted against us, The people clearly voted SF in"

Yeah, junior ministers and 'anonymous sources'. Party top brass are largely keeping their heads down but conspicuously not ruling out a deal with FF.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yeah, junior ministers and 'anonymous sources'. Party top brass are largely keeping their heads down but conspicuously not ruling out a deal with FF.

I'm pretty sure Leo said it too, might have to find a quote. But he went on about the onus being on SF. He seems to be ignoring the fact that many people also voted FF, and that he said he would be open to working with them.

Suckit wrote: »

I'm pretty sure Leo said it too, might have to find a quote. But he went on about the onus being on SF. He seems to be ignoring the fact that many people also voted FF, and that he said he would be open to working with them.

If he didn't specifically say "FG will not be going into government with FF" then it's all just empty words. My own belief is that all the FG talk about "rebuilding in opposition" is a smokescreen designed to give the impression among joe public that a FF/SF was a realistic prospect, even if FG leadership themselves never thought it would actually happen.

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Instead, have they not engineering a perfect position for themselves, and are the ones having played it smartly ? Where does they idea come from that either has a desire to coalesce with SF ? As we are, An FF/FG coalition is far more natural, politically aligned, and involves no strife over dealing with terrorists and their supporters. Well played Martin and Rads.

I don't think it's at all a given that FF as a party will go along with that.
https://www.herald.ie/news/martin-faces-anger-from-tds-who-dont-want-coalition-with-fine-gael-or-sinn-fein-38952346.html
However, senior frontbench Fianna Fail TDs, including deputy leader Dara Calleary, Barry Cowen, Darragh O'Brien and Willie O'Dea among others, are opposed to entering into coalition with either Sinn Fein or Fine Gael.

IMO there may well be enough FF TDs bloody-minded enough to prefer another election to a deal with either FG or SF to mean that is what we will get...

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I don't think it's at all a given that FF as a party will go along with that.
https://www.herald.ie/news/martin-faces-anger-from-tds-who-dont-want-coalition-with-fine-gael-or-sinn-fein-38952346.html
However, senior frontbench Fianna Fail TDs, including deputy leader Dara Calleary, Barry Cowen, Darragh O'Brien and Willie O'Dea among others, are opposed to entering into coalition with either Sinn Fein or Fine Gael.

IMO there may well be enough FF TDs bloody-minded enough to prefer another election to a deal with either FG or SF to mean that is what we will get...

I heard at least two of those on the radio before the election refusing to rule anything out when specifically asked about SF. Think it was the day or two days before the GE.

BluePlanet wrote: »

Yeah, and it really shows how much they actually care about the real life issues people face.
Problems they and FF created and now let others try and repair as FG go off and snipe from the sidelines. Perhaps with a goal of compounding the problems in people's lives?

I presume you didn't vote for FF or FG because you want someone else to be in the government but now you are complaining that they don't want to go into government. What exactly do you want them to do?

meeeeh wrote: »

I presume you didn't vote for FF or FG because you want someone else to be in the government but now you are complaining that they don't want to go into government. What exactly do you want them to do?

Dissolve and form a new and proper "Irish Tory" party that they really want.

Seriously though, look at the numbers.
There are 3 big parties and either 2 of them get together to form a government, (or even all 3) in some grand compromise.
They should think outside the box instead of retreating into their party tribalism.

Yurt! wrote: »

Honestly, I'd like media and public pressure to be heaped on both of them until they both meltdown. We're already at the point where large factions of both parties are agitating to go into opposition instead of working out a formula to give their voters what they wanted (FG in particular moved very quickly into this space). The cracks are already beginning to show today.

It's a remarkable sight to see the two dominant political movements in Ireland since independence in a race to stay away from the steering wheel. FG deserve particular ire as it was one of their favourite finger wagging techniques for 9 years, trying to paint everyone who wasn't them as those who 'hurled from the ditch.'

People should pay very close attention to their behaviour over the next few weeks and make a mental note of it.

What is the point in posting this screed over and over again in slightly different words? The counter-argument has put to you that all FG's talk about 'rebuilding in opposition' is just spin and that when push comes to shove they will almost certainly cut a deal with FF to avoid another election but you're not engaging with that.

maccored wrote: »

I see SF and maybe 20-25 others making a left block and then offering to go in with FF. that way the onus will be on FF to do something, and even if they did, they'd have less direct influence in the eventual government and if they didnt, sinn fein would get - what in my opinion the best idea - 5 years as direct opposition and build up on seats in the following election.

You have a few scenarios and assumptions there that I can see a problem with.


First if SF roll up to FF saying we have 57 -62 now in solid numbers it will only be because they have already agreed a programme for government with that 20 -25 and are looking for FF to sign on the dotted line. Cannot see that happening.


Secondly with the same elected TD`s as SF I do not see where the onus is on FF, or indeed FG, to form a coalition with SF where both campaigned on the message they would not.
The only onus on FF, and on FG to a lesser extent because of their number, is to attempt to form a government themselves with support from others. Alternatively, as FG are apparently doing, for both to do what SF did in 2016. Say the numbers are not there for us so we are sitting this one out.



Thirdly, if SF come to either of them with the backing of 57 -62 TD`s that would be well within the range of seats that the present minority government governed with for the past 4 years. If one or the other, FG or FF, offered a C&S would the real onus not then be on SF to accept rather than cause another general election.

dxhound2005 wrote: »

SF are the experts at waiting around for other parties to lose, so they can get in at the top. That's why they refused to be part of any negotiations in 2016. And it is how they and the DUP wore down the middle ground in the North.

When they got power there, they simply carried on with the policies which they raged against when the SDLP and UUP had the reins. I expect they will try to force another election now. Whether they have any more worthwhile candidates remains to be seen.

I only remember 2 parties leaders saying they wouldn't do business with another party and it wasn't MLM.

MM is absolutely desperate to be taoiseach, he was asked point blank last Sunday would you talk to SF and he said he will respect the Democratic choice of the people. That was when they were predicted to get 47 seats, he's even worse off now. It's up to him to convince his party into a coalition with them, because behind all the bluster he doesn't care as long as he is taoiseach.

Bowie wrote: »

So much for the 'stability' farce. Varadkar counted FG out before the dust settled. Lots of FF/FG voters will be wondering what was the point and it will likely look good for SF if we are pushed to another election.
You would think FF/FG would be interested because I can't see another election going any better for them or are they thinking Lisbon treaty, the public got it wrong, try again? That would be amazing arrogance.

Not really, you take seat losses, rebuild in opposition and when SF go the way of Labour because they won't be able to follow up on their promises, you try with another election. That's if left wing government composed of more fractious than there are parties actually survives 4 years.

That being said at some stage there won't be space for both FF and FG. Either they will merge or one will go down and other one survive.