new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

fritzelly · 13-02-2020 01:03AM

If you want a full breakdown (translator needed)

http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200213_2025581.shtml

13-02-2020 01:03AM

Includes *clinical diagnosis*. I.e not tested but showing symptoms of it.

The jump in deaths is the problem here though it brings down the fatal rate depending on how you calculate it

givyjoe · 13-02-2020 01:04AM

fritzelly wrote: »

It's like some people scan the thread for the worst news posts and just reply to them ignoring all the other posts

The CDC themselves have said some of the tests shipped were faulty. It's literally posted in a link a few pages back.

Call Me Jimmy · 13-02-2020 01:05AM

We know that in reality the number of people infected was much larger than reported, models showed this. As said before, deaths have not been reported (which they admit to now).

They seem to have changed their classification and put suspected cases into confirmed without tests.

For the people of Wuhan it is very ominous that officials are coming clean.

wakka12 · 13-02-2020 01:05AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Includes *clinical diagnosis*. I.e not tested but showing symptoms of it.

The jump in deaths is the problem here

Ah, well that explains the huge jump. No explanation why almost 25% of the deaths over the last month occurred today though

13-02-2020 01:05AM

laurah591 wrote: »

Have you a source article to highlight the change in criteria by any chance?

No sorry, closed it already. It'll be in the comments of any Twitter comments posted here.

They've basically started adding clinically diagnosed, which I believe means people who show the symptoms but haven't been actually tested for the virus.

fritzelly · 13-02-2020 01:05AM

givyjoe wrote: »

The CDC themselves have said some of the tests shipped were faulty. It's literally posted in a link a few pages back.

Did you understand my post? Since I posted the article about 6 posts earler

13-02-2020 01:06AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Ah, well that explains the huge jump. No explanation why almost 25% of the deaths over the last month occurred today though

My guess is suspected weren't being counted when they died

wakka12 · 13-02-2020 01:06AM

Also important to note that 3400 patients were discharged. Perhaps we are reaching a peak of when a huge number of people infeccted 3 or so weeks ago

Fr_Dougal · 13-02-2020 01:06AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Includes *clinical diagnosis*. I.e not tested but showing symptoms of it.

The jump in deaths is the problem here

But also excludes tested positive and asymptomatic, so swings and roundabouts.

That’s a big jump in deaths alright.

fritzelly · 13-02-2020 01:07AM

Deleted User wrote: »

My guess is suspected weren't being counted when they died

They can hardly test them now can they?

SeaBreezes · 13-02-2020 01:09AM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

I wonder are they beginning to right size the numbers.

Or need to balance the deaths to keep to the. 2.1% narrative?

givyjoe · 13-02-2020 01:09AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Did you understand my post? Since I posted the article about 6 posts earler

What are you on about? You were whinging about people focusing on "bad news posts" and you were the one who posted the article?!

Show me the good news posts?!

wakka12 · 13-02-2020 01:10AM

Yeh the mortality rate has remained suspiciously almost exactly 2.1% for a very long time

Fr_Dougal · 13-02-2020 01:13AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Or need to balance the deaths to keep to the. 2.1% narrative?

Yup, they’ve done it again.

Call Me Jimmy · 13-02-2020 01:14AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Yeh the mortality rate has remained suspiciously almost exactly 2.1% for a very long time

Aye becauses it's bollox. Like everything, it will be what suits them until they can't get away with it anymore.

bodhrandude · 13-02-2020 01:15AM

Martina1991 wrote: »

Where are you hearing tests are faulty

Reported three hours ago. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-health-authority-shipped-faulty-coronavirus-test-kits-across-12429566

GooglePlus · 13-02-2020 01:15AM

givyjoe wrote: »

What are you on about? You were whinging about people focusing on "bad news posts" and you were the one who posted the article?!

Show me the good news posts?!

Well if you're a 2019 Coronavirus, things are pretty good.

13-02-2020 01:20AM

It looks like we are all f**ked, that it will just take its course and do its pandemic spread. The advantage in retarding its rate of spread would mean less cases at any one time, and to an extent this is happening. But I think we are going to have to resign ourselves into probably getting the horrible dose and hope to goodness we survive and without the worst complications.

One piece of kit that would be useful to have is a pulse oximeter, where you could keep an eye on how well your lungs are oxygenating you’re blood. As long as your sats are keeping well into the 90s you are ok, but when you see them dropping then it’s time to get to hospital. From time to time Lidl sells these, and you can get them through Amazon.

Personally I feel I will be kind of waiting to get the dose, get it behind me, and be immune. But all the time wishing the whole thing would just go away.

MD1990 · 13-02-2020 01:21AM

This gives us little confidence in WHO as well as China.

Maybe Ireland should go into lockdown now even with no case yet

fritzelly · 13-02-2020 01:22AM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1227748006105055232

dominatinMC · 13-02-2020 01:23AM

MD1990 wrote: »

This gives us little confidence in WHO as well as China.

Maybe Ireland should go into lockdown now even with no case yet

That would require us to be proactive for the the first time in the history of the state. Well, since the Rising anyway!

Martina1991 · 13-02-2020 01:23AM

Sounds like the CDC rushed the manufacturing of the kits. All reagents should have been validated and audited before shipping worldwide.
Poor practice.

sdanseo · 13-02-2020 01:24AM

Full disclosure: i panicked slightly when I saw the figure.

Having taken 15 minutes to digest it: this is a correction of figures based on previous underreporting. It's nothing anyone didn't already suspect.
The mortality rate of the new figures - 242 / 14840 - is 1.63%
The total average is around 2.28%

The figures seem to contradict themselves. They say 48206 total cases of which 3440 discharged (thats cumulative not new)
But in the same breath they say only 33693 in hospital.

Of the 33693 - 5467 or 16.2 % "critical" (google translate churns up critical twice, so I take this to mean "serious")
and 1437 "critical" ( i take this to mean ICU)

TLDR -> while it is impossible to interpret this as "good" news, or to tell if the spread is slowing because it seems these figures have been reclassified for cases covering a large number of days, the general percentages in terms of seriousness etc seem to be much the same.

wakka12 · 13-02-2020 01:25AM

Without clinical diagnoses Hubei has 1508 new cases and 107 new deaths today
Why are they testing/confirming less cases than other days? Run out of test kits or something?

fritzelly · 13-02-2020 01:26AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Without clinical diagnoses Hubei has 1508 new cases and 107 new deaths today
Why are they testing/confirming less cases than other days? Run out of test kits or something?

Where are you getting 107 deaths, 245 new deaths today

Fr_Dougal · 13-02-2020 01:27AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It looks like we are all f**ked, that it will just take its course and do its pandemic spread. The advantage in retarding its rate of spread would mean less cases at any one time, and to an extent this is happening. But I think we are going to have to resign ourselves into probably getting the horrible dose and hope to goodness we survive and without the worst complications.

One piece of kit that would be useful to have is a pulse oximeter, where you could keep an eye on how well your lungs are oxygenating you’re blood. As long as your sats are keeping well into the 90s you are ok, but when you see them dropping then it’s time to get to hospital. From time to time Lidl sells these, and you can get them through Amazon.

Personally I feel I will be kind of waiting to get the dose, get it behind me, and be immune. But all the time wishing the whole thing would just go away.

These pulse oximeters are built into a lot of smart phones, if you have a Samsung Galaxy S, for example, there’s a fairly good chance you have one. Probably not as accurate as a stand-alone device.

Martina1991 · 13-02-2020 01:27AM

wakka12 wrote:

Without clinical diagnoses Hubei has 1508 new cases and 107 new deaths today Why are they testing/confirming less cases than other days? Run out of test kits or something?

Yes. Prioritising tests for those with more severe symptoms.

wakka12 · 13-02-2020 01:28AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Where are you getting 107 deaths, 245 new deaths today

Without clinical diagnosis. Many of the deaths today were 'confirmed' as they are assumed to have died from coronavirus, not actually tested. Only 107 deaths were actually tested positive for the virus.

I think its strange honestly. Theres bound to be some people with other respiratory diseases becoming part of the numbers now.Look how many strongly suspected coronavirus cases abroad have turned out to be negative. But at the same time, must mean A LOT of recent deaths were never confirmed as coronvirus infections in the last few days

sdanseo · 13-02-2020 01:30AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Without clinical diagnoses Hubei has 1508 new cases and 107 new deaths today
Why are they testing/confirming less cases than other days? Run out of test kits or something?

fritzelly wrote: »

Where are you getting 107 deaths, 245 new deaths today

Distinction between clinical diagnosis and laboratory confirmed is very important here.

Clinical diagnosis means a doctor diagnoses based on symptoms and other tests
Lab confirmed is a scientific confirmation of a positive test for this exact virus

They are now including both figures in the totals.
If you comparer apples with apples and use the criteria they were using yesterday, the number has continued to drop. (see above)

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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