GE Exit Poll 10 pm

freshpopcorn wrote: »

Regarding the exit it polls guys.
Was there a breakdown of people's jobs, etc breakdown shown of who voted for Sinn Fein, Fine Gael, Etc on Saturday in the exit poll.

The poll companies endeavour to ensure that they have a balance of the entire spectrum of age, gender, location etc etc.

They phoned me up a month or so ago having used me for previous polls. When she went through the list of basic questions about those being polled and found out my age group she said 'sorry, we cant use you in this poll we have already filled that age group.'

So what do you want to know? That the polls are unfair because they didnt give the result you expected?
That only those with an IQ of a cabbage voted SF but the who voted FG had an IQ greater than Einstein?

My uncle Jack voted and supported FG his entire life. Could hardly read or write, never went to school beyond the age of 12, worked his entire life mowing lawns and as a general handyman, yet Garrett Fitzgerald made it his personal business to be at his funeral.
Me, Im 50+, worked almost my entire career in computers, first on mainframes where punched cards and magnetic tape were still the main means of storing data before PC's even existed, up to recently where I was working in the IT security sector and server management. Now studying for a degree in astro-physics. I have never voted FG and have voted SF, and would have in this election if there was a SF candidate standing in my constituency.

You see the point I'm trying to make here? Intelligence, income, and education do not predetermine who you will vote for and only a really stupid person would make that assertion

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

To understand the IRA/SF mentality and claims to have left the past behind, its important to consider that the first part of deradicalization is understanding individuals’ psychological state, previous trauma, and personal circumstances—not just their political and religious beliefs.

One of the hallmarks of a terrorist worldview is its rigidity: us and them, the righteous and the unbelievers. Cracking that is key to deradicalization. Those jailed for such offenses—overwhelmingly men - were prime targets for further radicalization in prison, to move them from glorification to action. These are closed systems that can develop strong hierarchies.

In fact, confusion and uncertainty are often better signs that deradicalization is working than strong pledges that a person has changed. You’re talking about people with black-and-white views on ethics; all their answers are put on a plate for them; they have strong identities and membership of a group. If someone breaks that black-and-white view—moral ennui, that’s what they’re going to face. It’s like leaving a cult. There’s a sense of having no community, an identity crisis, a morality crisis, maybe even becoming more isolated.

Come on that's not fair to the FG die-hards. You should be dishing up plates of sympathy not putting to boot in.

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Some of the abuse from the SF side is accompanied by a crowing triumphalism telling others that SF is now top dog.

Personally I dont care about any abuse that comes my way. If someone has to resort to abuse and name calling they have either lost the argument already and are admitting that, or are not intelligent enough to hold a rational and well argued debate.

I have no problem with anyone having a totally different view point to myself. It would be a horrible world to live in if we were all exactly the same just like clones.

I must admit though I do get a bit of a giggle when I see supposedly adult people claiming that their party is the more sensible, more fiscally prudent and better for the country and when challenged on this they immediately resort to taunts and bluster. You would think that they could actually put a well thought out and considered argument together, being that they are so superior, but obviously not.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Not the same thing. AFAIK Jim O'Callaghan is the only senior figure to have explicitly said he would not serve in government with SF. I think we'd find if Marin was determined to push through a deal with SF, most/all the rest of them would find a way to win the wrestling match with their consciences.

Paddy Power has FF/SF/Green as joint favourite to be the next government, so evidently the punters are not convinced FF/SF is definitively off the table...

The SF position is that they want any arrangement except one which includes FF or FG. Are they not going to make a decent effort to make that happen?

dxhound2005 wrote: »

The SF position is that they want any arrangement except one which includes FF or FG. Are they not going to make a decent effort to make that happen?

It obvious that SF can only form a minority government. Despite that they have met with some of the smaller parties today and will be doing the same tomorrow.

Leo and Michael Martin are well aware of this, if FF and FG were so keen on SF forming a government surely they would step forward and offer a stability agreement where they would not put forward or support a motion of no confidence for 2 or 3 years

So at the moment, its SF doing all the legwork, and Leo and Michael Martin sat on their arses doing nothing.

Who is in your considered opinion based on those facts is making a decent effort?

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

That assertion has been made multiple times across many threads casting aspirations on all who voted SF from calling them idiots, scum , proles , wasters etc you get my drift and I can say it is predominantly from FG supporters on this site. I could list their user names and link their comments but there is no need their comments are still visible beside their username. It's actually sad that they can direct such bile to others just for exercising their democratic right to vote for whom they want whether it was ideological inspired or as a means to protest the status quo.

A lot of ex fg voters ,voted sf. The bloody irony that Fg have caused this sf surge

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Not the same thing. AFAIK Jim O'Callaghan is the only senior figure to have explicitly said he would not serve in government with SF. I think we'd find if Marin was determined to push through a deal with SF, most/all the rest of them would find a way to win the wrestling match with their consciences.

Paddy Power has FF/SF/Green as joint favourite to be the next government, so evidently the punters are not convinced FF/SF is definitively off the table...

I would not be inclined to look on punters or bookies odds as much of an indicator on political outcomes with there record in the recent election.


There have been a few other front bench members of FF who have ruled out a coalition with SF.
Jack Chambers last night on the Tonight Show was very adamant.
I didn`t hear the interview with McGrath, (who is being generally looked on as Martin`s heir apparent), but he, according to reports was a definite no as well.
I did hear O`Callaghan, (who it seems is the favourite of quite a few in FF who feel they need a Dublin based leader to take over from Martin), and there was no ambiguity in his no.
Two of those would be senior figures in FF with quite an amount of clout I would imagine, and the third, Chambers did not sound as if he was on a solo run.
I suppose time will tell, but from the two I heard, the chances of a SF/FF coalition did not sound encouraging.

efanton wrote: »

It obvious that SF can only form a minority government. Despite that they have met with some of the smaller parties today and will be doing the same tomorrow.

Leo and Michael Martin are well aware of this, if FF and FG were so keen on SF forming a government surely they would step forward and offer a stability agreement where they would not put forward or support a motion of no confidence for 2 or 3 years

So at the moment, its SF doing all the legwork, and Leo and Michael Martin sat on their arses doing nothing.

Who is in your considered opinion based on those facts is making a decent effort?

SF asked for voters to transfer Left to get a Left government led by them. FF and FG made it clear to the voters that neither of them would go into government with SF. Everyone is standing by their positions. In 2016 SF with 23 seats, just let the rest get on with it. It took a couple of months back then, so it is far too early for SF to start looking for other parties to renege on their election promises.

efanton wrote: »

so why the comment


You do realise you are contradicting yourself.

Also explain to me this.
FF and FG are constantly saying SF cant be trusted to be in government and it would be terrible for the country.
Are you now saying they have changed their minds?
If not surely they too would be in talks to prevent that from happening?

Is it they they were lying all along, or is it that they are looking out for themselves and dont have the country's interest at heart.

Strikes me as a very peculiar situation indeed. Neither want SF in power and the obvious way to achieve that would be a FF/FG/Greens coalition.
So why arent Leo and Martin in talks trying to form a government?

Surely they are not hypocrites?

FF members who favour a deal with FG know it will be a hard sell to the party as a whole. They are basically letting things play out until a critical mass in the party comes to accept that this is the way forward...

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

FF members who favour a deal with FG know it will be a hard sell to the party as a whole. They are basically letting things play out until a critical mass in the party comes to accept that this is the way forward...

If it comes down to it, it would be an easier sell for both where the one that got the most numbers together to form a minority government would be granted a C&S by the other.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Obviously a very bad result for the party, and there were discussions about how the simple message of economic growth, balanced budgets, financial prudence, and a strong position on the UK/EU post-Brexit trade deal didn't resonate with the electorate.

Just say it bro. Just say 'the idiots don't know how good they have it and it's all down to us' (not their own hard work).

There was very broad agreement on the impact the FG party has made to Irish social society - abortion legislation, same sex marriage rights, divorce; a State apology to the victims of laundries, convents, and Mother and Child homes. All delivered under FG lead governments.

FG were ten years behind the population on these issues - leading from behind. Tory Boy Varadkar waited until he saw the wind blowing strongly in favour of equal marriage before explicitly supporting it.

charlie14 wrote: »

SF have said their preference is for a government of the left. FF and FG appear to be leaving SF publicly at it unhindered.
They both know the numbers are not there an if they also got involved in talks with those parties, should it come to another general election, would be open to accusations of attempting to outbid SF.


Both FF and FG know that to form even a minority government SF will at some stage need to approach them. If either are interesting in granting a C&S, that is the time it would be offered along with the terms for granting it.

I see SF and maybe 20-25 others making a left block and then offering to go in with FF. that way the onus will be on FF to do something, and even if they did, they'd have less direct influence in the eventual government and if they didnt, sinn fein would get - what in my opinion the best idea - 5 years as direct opposition and build up on seats in the following election.