new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

I’m surprised there hasn’t been more cases in the uk, still only 4

The Guardian London UK
Health editor
Tue 11 Feb 2020 08.30 GMT

Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked'

MAIN POINTS

Interview with Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University

Professor Leung – one of the world’s experts on coronavirus epidemics, who played a major role in the Sars outbreak in 2002-03 – works closely with other leading scientists such as counterparts at Imperial College London and Oxford University.

En route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva.Professor Leung told The Guardian that most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an “attack rate” of 60-80%.

* "The coronavirus epidemic could spread to about two-thirds of the world’s population if it cannot be controlled."

* "Even if the general fatality rate is as low as 1%," which Leung thinks is possible once milder cases are taken into account," the death toll would be massive."

* He will tell the WHO expert meeting today that the main issue is the scale of the growing worldwide epidemic and the second priority is to find out whether the drastic measures taken by China to prevent the spread have worked – because if so, other countries should think about adopting them."

* He has warned in a paper in the Lancet that outbreaks were likely to be “growing exponentially” in cities in China, lagging just one to two weeks behind Wuhan. Elsewhere, “independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable” because of the substantial movement of people who were infected but had not yet developed symptoms, and the absence of public health measures to stop the spread.

* Experts also need to know “Have these massive public health interventions, social distancing, and mobility restrictions worked in China?” he asked. “If so, how can we roll them out, or is it not possible?”

* If China’s lockdown has not worked, there is another unpalatable truth to face: that the coronavirus might not be possible to contain.

* For now, containment measures are essential.

* Leung said the period of time when people were infected but showed no symptoms remained a huge problem.

* Quarantine was necessary.If anyone within a quarantine camp or on a stricken cruise ship tested positive, the clock should be reset to 14 days more for all the others.

* Leung talked to the health minister and deputy prime minister of Thailand, and advised the setting up of quarantine camps, which the government has done.

* "Scientists still do not know for sure whether transmission is through droplets from coughs or possibly airborne particles.

*People needed to have faith and trust in their government while the uncertainties of the new outbreak were worked out by the scientific community."

***Avoid Fake news.

Read the Full interview below:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population

gozunda wrote: »

Not saying the expert they mention is wrong however I would take all of that newspapers content with a large bucket of salt these days. It regularly comes out with ludicrous headlines and inaccurate reporting.

I am not saying he is wrong but he is wrong :pac:

Drumpot wrote: »

Why do you think countries like Ireland are doing nothing to warn and prepare its population? I mean if it’s inevitable then our health system is gonna struggle badly when we hit peak numbers.

Maybe they dont want to panic people. Maybe it is just felt to be inevitable, theres not a lot you can do to prepare . Look at China, life has stopped and the economy grinded to a halt for several weeks now and it didn't even stop the spread. I'm not worried about my own health but I'm worried about how my older relatives will get through this.

ThePopehimself wrote: »

No.

This is Professor Leung – one of the world’s experts on coronavirus epidemics.The chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University on his way to meet with the other world leading experts at a meeting convened by the World Health Organisation in Geneva.It is an Interview which would be held to the Strictest standards that mark The Guardian.

Yes

As stated professor young fine. That newspaper not so. At one time I would have agreed - however the paper is now little better than some tabloids with sensationalist headlines and often poor standard of journalism. Notably the newspaper now recieves funding for paid opinion pieces. Anyway not going to drag the thread off on a discussion purely about that.