GE Exit Poll 10 pm

James Brown · 11-02-2020 04:50AM

STB. wrote: »

Rolls over. You'd swear SF were in the driving seat. They are the party with the second most seats in the country. Both 1st and 3rd are centre right.

And what if FF decide to do it another way without SF, does that mess up their plans for world domination ??? And what if FF do a good job, will they have lost their chance.

Interesting times. This is going to go on for some time. Who'll blink first.

If FF build social and affordable at least we'll have that.
When FF do shenanigans at least the public get a taste.

James Brown · 11-02-2020 04:53AM

brendanwalsh wrote: »

FF and FG will have to come together in coalition to keep the socialists out of government until the country sees sense again. Anyone who voted Sinn Fein as protest vote should be ashamed of themselves , Dessie and Cullinan singing Ira songs while jerry Mccabes family go another year without their father at the head of the table. Shame on Sinn Fein and Mary Lou again not reprimanding her party members for pro ra singing

This is gas craic.
Crashing the country, generational debt followed by the IW quango, crony appointments and housing, health and homeless crises worsening year on year...yes come back and save us :rolleyes:

Wanderer78 · 11-02-2020 06:27AM

brendanwalsh wrote:

FF and FG will have to come together in coalition to keep the socialists out of government until the country sees sense again. Anyone who voted Sinn Fein as protest vote should be ashamed of themselves , Dessie and Cullinan singing Ira songs while jerry Mccabes family go another year without their father at the head of the table. Shame on Sinn Fein and Mary Lou again not reprimanding her party members for pro ra singing

Socialists! Really! In an open, free market economy! Sees sense, so keeping things the same is sensible?

Cullinane was an idiot to behave like so, but I'd imagine this government will have successes and failures just like the alternatives

ThunbergsAreGo · 11-02-2020 07:56AM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

They don't (really) want to be in government this time, unless FF rolls over and agrees to all of their demands. They want another election ASAP so they can convert their support into the number of seats it merits, then they will be running the show at the head of a left coalition and their supporters won't have to answer to anybody else.

Another election might yield even more surprising results.

For all the SF surge they got 23 percent of the vote. A massive jump but not one you would expect repeating, with maybe 30 percent achievable? It would bring them closer to what they need but might not still be enough.

Also in pre election polls they were the party most (think it was 36 percent) didn't want in government. There could be all sorts of vote lending going on but ultimately I think we'd end up right back where we are with a reduced vote for smaller parties

Grab All Association · 11-02-2020 08:10AM

12.5% corporation tax didn’t stop Dell and Gateway moving manufacturing abroad. This tax is not untouchable. I say this as someone who is currently employed by a multinational. What this country really needs its own indigenous industries.

Wanderer78 · 11-02-2020 08:14AM

Grab All Association wrote: »

12.5% corporation tax didn’t stop Dell and Gateway moving manufacturing abroad. This tax is not untouchable. I say this as someone who is currently employed by a multinational. What this country really needs its own indigenous industries.

our country needs both multinationals and the encouragement of the indigenous industries, and to give those indigenous industries the same level of protectionism as multinationals, we should probably also change the way we accept revenue from the multinationals, and actually make sure they pay the full 12.5%

McMurphy · 11-02-2020 08:43AM

I would think that Michaél is toast now tbh, his party has in reality won the same number of seats as Sinn Fein, and he's painted himself into the corner by making the fundamentally stupid mistake of ruling out working with both SF and FG before he knew the numbers.

FG categorically ruled out working with SF.

SF said they're willing to talk to both.

FG (35) + GP (12) + FF (38) = 85.

The alternative is far too many groups and splinter groups imo, and regardless of your thoughts on the shinners, they're politically savvy - they're not going to be wanting a mishmash of that either that won't last a wet week.

FG (35) + GP (12) + FF (38) = 85.

Maybe throw in the SDs too. There is a potential govt.

SF then main opposition party.

Either that or FF do a big U-turn with SF instead of FG, rotating Taoiseach, with Mary Lou/Michaél and the greens or SDs.

Or they can leave the posters up.

Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Achasanai · 11-02-2020 08:47AM

brendanwalsh wrote: »

FF and FG will have to come together in coalition to keep the socialists out of government until the country sees sense again.

I'm not sure if you're serious, but FF literally destroyed this country's economy and FG have not exactly covered themselves in glory with the health and housing crisis.

And yet it's the 'socialists' we have to worry about.

Wanderer78 · 11-02-2020 08:48AM

McMurphy wrote: »

I would think that Michaél is toast now tbh, his party has in reality won the same number of seats as Sinn Fein, and he's painted himself into the corner by making the fundamentally stupid mistake of ruling out working with both SF and FG before he knew the numbers.

FG categorically ruled out working with SF.

SF said they're willing to talk to both.

FG (35) + GP (12) + FF (38) = 85.

The alternative is far too many groups and splinter groups imo, and regardless of your thoughts on the shinners, they're politically savvy - they're not going to be wanting a mishmash of that either that won't last a wet week.

FG (35) + GP (12) + FF (38) = 85.

Maybe throw in the SDs too. There is a potential govt.

SF then main opposition party.

Either that or FF do a big U-turn with SF instead of FG, rotating Taoiseach, with Mary Lou/Michaél and the greens or SDs.

Or they can leave the posters up.

Oh how the mighty have fallen.

everything still to play for here, expect all sorts of u-turns, for the national interest of course! i think sf got very lucky, ffg had astonishingly poor campaigns

McMurphy · 11-02-2020 08:57AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

everything still to play for here, expect all sorts of u-turns, for the national interest of course! i think sf got very lucky, ffg had astonishingly poor campaigns

FFG made their campaign all about SF instead of housing and health.

I dunno about lucky, if the other two don't appear to be reasonable here, it will further bolster Sinn Fein support imo, and any hardlining from them that pushes people back to the polls could see further momentum/a surge behind SF who run more candidates and overshadow FFG.

Regardless, the two tier party system has most likely gone from Irish politics forever.

snotboogie · 11-02-2020 08:59AM

Grab All Association wrote: »

12.5% corporation tax didn’t stop Dell and Gateway moving manufacturing abroad. This tax is not untouchable. I say this as someone who is currently employed by a multinational. What this country really needs its own indigenous industries.

Dell still employ around 5,000 people in Ireland. They shifted focus from manufacturing to Finance, Sales, IT and Supply Chain.

Wanderer78 · 11-02-2020 09:02AM

McMurphy wrote: »

FFG made their campaign all about SF instead of housing and health.

I dunno about lucky, if the other two don't appear to be reasonable here, it will further bolster Sinn Fein support imo, and any hardlining from them that pushes people back to the polls could see further momentum/a surge behind SF who run more candidates and overshadow FFG.

Regardless, the two tier party system has most likely gone from Irish politics forever.

im not convinced of this at all, ffg are behemoths, they wont simply lie down over this, they ll be back with avenges

listermint · 11-02-2020 09:04AM

We are incredibly poor at helping or starting indigenous businesses though. Look to Portugal for how it's done alot better than here. I think the IDA need a well funded division to solely concentrate on local business. A good balance between our international outlook and also not reliance on it are required more than any widening of the tax base

We are too open to shocks.

seamus · 11-02-2020 09:06AM

Lads, you can rule out any chance of FF & FG going in together. They've done that for the last 3.5 years and this is the result. They're not going to go again.

FF are desperate to be in government again, but I don't know just how desperate. They might propose another C&S arrangement with a SF/Green coalition. Give SF a "test run" before agreeing to a full coalition.

My gut feeling though is that they'll negotiate a short fixed-term (2 years or less) programme for government with Sinn Fein and the Greens, with a view to starting the whole process again at the end of the term.

flazio · 11-02-2020 09:07AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

our country needs both multinationals and the encouragement of the indigenous industries, and to give those indigenous industries the same level of protectionism as multinationals, we should probably also change the way we accept revenue from the multinationals, and actually make sure they pay the full 12.5%

You mean start manufacturing knock offs of what we're making for the multinationals?

listermint · 11-02-2020 09:09AM

flazio wrote: »

You mean start manufacturing knock offs of what we're making for the multinationals?

I've no idea how you got that from his post...

Snow Garden · 11-02-2020 09:12AM

Achasanai wrote: »

I'm not sure if you're serious, but FF literally destroyed this country's economy and FG have not exactly covered themselves in glory with the health and housing crisis.

And yet it's the 'socialists' we have to worry about.

It's Stockholm syndrome. Same reason people still go to mass every week.

Fann Linn · 11-02-2020 09:13AM

STB. wrote: »

Your post had everything to do with maths.

If Leo and MM with a combined 73 seats are "consigned to the opposition benches", who is running the country and how "mathematically"?

Nope. My point being that FF are so content supporting Fg that they are more than happy to go into opposition with them.

Tweedledum and Tweedledee.

flazio · 11-02-2020 09:13AM

listermint wrote: »

I've no idea how you got that from his post...

Simple. Big Manufacturer pulls out of Ireland because they can go somewhere else for less tax. Government reaction would be to try and encourage the factory workers to set up their own business building the same thing in the same factory to try and compete with the ex employer.

listermint · 11-02-2020 09:15AM

flazio wrote: »

Simple. Big Manufacturer pulls out of Ireland because they can go somewhere else for less tax. Government reaction would be to try and encourage the factory workers to set up their own business building the same thing in the same factory to try and compete with the ex employer.

Oh Jesus...

That's not what he said .

Also we aren't in the business of trying to break IP law.

Did you really get that from his post

Boggles · 11-02-2020 09:17AM

seamus wrote: »

FF are desperate to be in government again, but I don't know just how desperate. They might propose another C&S arrangement with a SF/Green coalition. Give SF a "test run" before agreeing to a full coalition.

Not a hope, C&S is now off the table.

FF were treated the same way as the government at the poll.

No reward in it, only punishment.

LuckyLloyd · 11-02-2020 09:20AM

seamus wrote: »

Lads, you can rule out any chance of FF & FG going in together. They've done that for the last 3.5 years and this is the result. They're not going to go again.

FF are desperate to be in government again, but I don't know just how desperate. They might propose another C&S arrangement with a SF/Green coalition. Give SF a "test run" before agreeing to a full coalition.

My gut feeling though is that they'll negotiate a short fixed-term (2 years or less) programme for government with Sinn Fein and the Greens, with a view to starting the whole process again at the end of the term.

And you think SF will accept that?

You're still thinking FF can dictate terms seamus. I'm not sure you're paying attention.

STB. · 11-02-2020 09:25AM

Fann Linn wrote: »

Nope. My point being that FF are so content supporting Fg that they are more than happy to go into opposition with them.

Tweedledum and Tweedledee.

That is not what you said. And what I pointed out to you is that SF do not have the numbers without one of them ie FF or FG.

So stop talking nonsense

Ush1 · 11-02-2020 09:29AM

Grab All Association wrote: »

12.5% corporation tax didn’t stop Dell and Gateway moving manufacturing abroad. This tax is not untouchable. I say this as someone who is currently employed by a multinational. What this country really needs its own indigenous industries.

Sinn Fein are notoriously pro-ambition and big business aren't they?

seamus · 11-02-2020 09:31AM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

And you think SF will accept that?

You're still thinking FF can dictate terms seamus. I'm not sure you're paying attention.

There's the word "negotiate" in there Lloyd.

SF can't form a government on their own. Either can FF. Both are going to have to come to a compromise somewhere.

Maybe SF will propose a C & S arrangement with FF in government. But I don't think that's what Mary-Lou wants either. It leaves SF out in the cold supporting FF policy with no direct say.

FG C & S with Sinn Féin? Yeah maybe. I'm not sure FG have the appetite for it though. It likewise leaves them taking the flak for SF's government, without any policy say.

This is why a negotiated fixed-term coalition between FF & SF seems most likely to me. It forms a stable-ish government with a known end date and a fixed set of things to achieve. That's easiest to sell to both SF & FF supporters.

Idbatterim · 11-02-2020 09:35AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

im not convinced of this at all, ffg are behemoths, they wont simply lie down over this, they ll be back with avenges

Maybe not with the current leaders though.

Boggles · 11-02-2020 09:35AM

One of the first things Coveney said when interviewed the other day with out being is asked.

Is confidence and supply as a notion is gone from Irish politics.

He is dead right, the electorate saw only SF as the opposition, they saw FF as part of government.

It's gone, it's either going to be coalition or back to the polls.

We are voting again I reckon.

Jinglejangle69 · 11-02-2020 09:36AM

Can't believe Aidhin ó Ríordáin got back in.

All he done in the last few years was object to houses been built in his area.

Which obviously got him votes.

NIMBYism at its finest

is_that_so · 11-02-2020 09:37AM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

And you think SF will accept that?

You're still thinking FF can dictate terms seamus. I'm not sure you're paying attention.

I don't think you are either. No party can saunter into a discussion with their whole manifesto covered in red lines. That's a short discussion.

limnam · 11-02-2020 09:38AM

More ranting and raving this morning on newstalk RE: up the ra

They just don't seem to get it.

GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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