New Dail / New Taoiseach

Lavinia · 10-02-2020 10:26AM

charlie14 wrote: »

I don`t know what that says tbh, as it only covers 55 seats out of the 160.

Percentage of the total first preference vote is a true reflection of voting trends.

means pretty obviously that SF won these elections by popular vote by being 3 miles ahead...

even when all votes will be redistributed..

as of this morning eg 78 TDs

seamus · 10-02-2020 10:29AM

It's funny to hear the wailing and shouting from both sides of the aisle.

Obama promised "change". The first black president, and seemingly the most liberal ones in decades. People were expecting sweeping reforms and positive change. Didn't happen.

Likewise, Sinn Féin won't deliver much change in government. They're career politicians no different from any others. Promise the sun, moon and stars, change tack once you take office and the reality bites. As a coalition partner, they'll be a useful foil to FF (or FG), to soften their policies. As a coalition leader, they'll spend more time balancing ideologies than actually getting things done.

They won't bankrupt the country or start taxing people and companies out of existence. They'll have a chat to business leaders over a few gilded lunches and Pearse and Mary-Lou will realise that any major tax reform is not going to make them popular people. So in order to hold onto their ministerial pensions, they'll go easy. They're no different to the others; their eyes are on getting re-elected at the next round and nothing more.

This is a protest vote that has gone Sinn Féin's way. This is why previously unknown or unpopular candidates have gone within nine months from a few hundred votes, to having surpluses on the first count. None of these candidates knocked on enough doors or held enough public meetings to explain this. It's not about a stellar online game or stellar campaigning. It's the fact that people have decided that it's time to give Sinn Féin a go. And Sinn Féin need to capitalise on this now, these borrowed votes won't be sticking around if SF don't go into government.

That's not to say SF didn't play this well. The RTE exit poll indicates that SF managed to hit exactly the right notes. Health and housing is what people care about. Leo went with Brexit and earnings. Martin went with tax.

Turns out the majority of people don't care about tax (66% are happy to pay more tax for better services), aren't too worried about Brexit, and just want someone to sort out health and housing. Sinn Féin promised to raise taxes, spend on public services, and work on health and housing. This is what people wanted to hear, enough to give SF a chance despite their IRA members.

So no, don't expect any sweeping change, for better or worse, from this. A change of tack from FF & FG for sure, and that's no bad thing. The conservatives have been properly kicked this time around. Irish people don't want anti-immigration, pro-religion, isolationist, staunch conservatives anywhere near our parliament.

Gonna be a rough few months for SF though. After the elation of the next few weeks, DOB's media will go to town on them. Lots of fresh-faced TDs, very little experience, lots of desire to get front and centre. And with a truckload of dodgy personal history that is going to get dragged up and thrown at them continuously. And if it is a left coalition that gets put together, it's going to be hard to hold it together when the past personal misdeeds of SF TDs are thrown into the public domain.

washman3 · 10-02-2020 11:11AM

handlemaster wrote: »

We had Trump and Boris. Now Mary Lou

Throw in Haughey, Bertie, Enda and Leo while you're at it...;)

nkl12xtw5goz70 · 10-02-2020 12:00PM

seamus wrote: »

This is a protest vote that has gone Sinn Féin's way. This is why previously unknown or unpopular candidates have gone within nine months from a few hundred votes, to having surpluses on the first count.

Indeed. Protest votes can be fickle, with dramatic surges followed by sudden collapses, as I'm sure Peter Casey can attest today — having gone from 23 percent of the popular vote in the presidential election to just 1.5 percent of the first-preference vote in Donegal on Saturday.

I'm all for instating Mary Lou as Taoiseach and giving Sinn Fein their day in the sun. The people will quickly realize that SF can't back up their big promises, will learn from their mistakes, and will vote more pragmatically next time around. But this infantile romance with hard-left socialism and/or the legacy of paramilitary terrorism has to end if we are to move forward as a country, and that can only be done by actually putting SF in power rather than letting them exist as a utopian fantasy.

It's easy to be a perpetual hurler on the ditch. It's much harder to govern and take responsibility for decisions. I do hope the electorate will soon get to witness the spectacle of inexperienced left-wing populists making decisions that affect their futures. It's not going to go well.

Bishop of hope · 10-02-2020 12:27PM

Brock Uninterested Leader wrote: »

Indeed. Protest votes can be fickle, with dramatic surges followed by sudden collapses, as I'm sure Peter Casey can attest today — having gone from 23 percent of the popular vote in the presidential election to just 1.5 percent of the first-preference vote in Donegal on Saturday.

I'm all for instating Mary Lou as Taoiseach and giving Sinn Fein their day in the sun. The people will quickly realize that SF can't back up their big promises, will learn from their mistakes, and will vote more pragmatically next time around. But this infantile romance with hard-left socialism and/or the legacy of paramilitary terrorism has to end if we are to move forward as a country, and that can only be done by actually putting SF in power rather than letting them exist as a utopian fantasy.

It's easy to be a perpetual hurler on the ditch. It's much harder to govern and take responsibility for decisions. I do hope the electorate will soon get to witness the spectacle of inexperienced left-wing populists making decisions that affect their futures. It's not going to go well.

I doubt that, unless you voted for SF?
This is the general chit chat of the beaten since Saturday, but it's out of spite mostly.
SF can't form a Govt without help and that means, their policies are going to be diluted anyway so if they achieve something on housing and health that they can crow about going forward that will be enough to keep them strong.
Their voters don't expect miracles, just progress and they're fed up of depending on FG and FF for it.
Suck it up lads, this is probably the future of Irish politics.

olestoepoke · 10-02-2020 12:32PM

Brock Uninterested Leader wrote: »

Indeed. Protest votes can be fickle, with dramatic surges followed by sudden collapses, as I'm sure Peter Casey can attest today — having gone from 23 percent of the popular vote in the presidential election to just 1.5 percent of the first-preference vote in Donegal on Saturday.

I'm all for instating Mary Lou as Taoiseach and giving Sinn Fein their day in the sun. The people will quickly realize that SF can't back up their big promises, will learn from their mistakes, and will vote more pragmatically next time around. But this infantile romance with hard-left socialism and/or the legacy of paramilitary terrorism has to end if we are to move forward as a country, and that can only be done by actually putting SF in power rather than letting them exist as a utopian fantasy.

It's easy to be a perpetual hurler on the ditch. It's much harder to govern and take responsibility for decisions. I do hope the electorate will soon get to witness the spectacle of inexperienced left-wing populists making decisions that affect their futures. It's not going to go well.

More scaremongering. Sour grapes anyone?

nkl12xtw5goz70 · 10-02-2020 12:32PM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

This is the general chit chat of the beaten since Saturday, but it's out of spite mostly.

Who exactly are the "beaten"? Three-quarters of the electorate gave their first preference to someone other than Sinn Fein.

SF can't form a Govt without help and that means, their policies are going to be diluted anyway...

And so the SF excuse-making and the backing away from election promises begins before a government is even formed.

blade1 · 10-02-2020 12:35PM

No memes please.

olestoepoke · 10-02-2020 12:36PM

Brock Uninterested Leader wrote: »

Who exactly are the "beaten"? Three-quarters of the electorate gave their first preference to someone other than Sinn Fein.

And so the SF excuse-making and the backing away from election promises begins before a government is even formed.

What about FG promises in 2016? How many of those did they "back away from?"

Bishop of hope · 10-02-2020 12:38PM

Brock Uninterested Leader wrote: »

Who exactly are the "beaten"? Three-quarters of the electorate gave their first preference to someone other than Sinn Fein.

And so the SF excuse-making and the backing away from election promises begins before a government is even formed.

So are they all, none of them expected they wouldn't have to.
This election is an SF victory by a country mile and a huge disappointment to both FF and FG.
The only way for them to show the courage of their commitments now is to form a Govt and keep SF out.

Sam Russell · 10-02-2020 12:38PM

Brock Uninterested Leader wrote: »

Who exactly are the "beaten"? Three-quarters of the electorate gave their first preference to someone other than Sinn Fein.

And so the SF excuse-making and the backing away from election promises begins before a government is even formed.

SF got 25% of the fist preference, and 25% of the seats. That means 75% of votes and seats did not go their way.

Both FF and FG said they would not form a Gov with SF, so all that is possible is a FF FG coalition, with help from smaller parties with SF in opposition.

However, remember the civil war - so that is not possible either, so where now?

seamus · 10-02-2020 12:38PM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Suck it up lads, this is probably the future of Irish politics.

Ping-ponging between 3 parties instead of 2? Yep, probably.

Gazzmonkey · 10-02-2020 12:42PM

Well done Mary Lou, well deserved result.

Mad_maxx · 10-02-2020 12:49PM

Brock Uninterested Leader wrote: »

Indeed. Protest votes can be fickle, with dramatic surges followed by sudden collapses, as I'm sure Peter Casey can attest today — having gone from 23 percent of the popular vote in the presidential election to just 1.5 percent of the first-preference vote in Donegal on Saturday.

I'm all for instating Mary Lou as Taoiseach and giving Sinn Fein their day in the sun. The people will quickly realize that SF can't back up their big promises, will learn from their mistakes, and will vote more pragmatically next time around. But this infantile romance with hard-left socialism and/or the legacy of paramilitary terrorism has to end if we are to move forward as a country, and that can only be done by actually putting SF in power rather than letting them exist as a utopian fantasy.

It's easy to be a perpetual hurler on the ditch. It's much harder to govern and take responsibility for decisions. I do hope the electorate will soon get to witness the spectacle of inexperienced left-wing populists making decisions that affect their futures. It's not going to go well.

I'm not sure socialist populism will be such a flash in the pan here

The SF vote amongst the under thirty demographic is huge, we have an exclusively left wing media where pro free market ideals are viewed as far dirtier than SF Marxist thought

ednwireland · 10-02-2020 12:52PM

olestoepoke wrote: »

More scaremongering. Sour grapes anyone?

no its not SF got hammered at the europeans and locals a few months ago.

this is a protest vote its not the new normal - yet they need to deliver now on some of there main objectives.

nkl12xtw5goz70 · 10-02-2020 12:56PM

Mad_maxx wrote: »

I'm not sure socialist populism will be such a flash in the pan here

The SF vote amongst the under thirty demographic is huge, we have an exclusively left wing media where pro free market ideals are viewed as far dirtier than SF Marxist thought

It won't be a flash in the pan, but many of these under-30s are of the "have your cake and eat it, too" variety. They want to espouse radical socialism while benefiting from capitalism.

As soon as socialism starts to hit people where it hurts, driving away jobs and investment and lowering living standards, these same people will rethink their utopian stances. But they have to learn their lesson with SF first.

seamus · 10-02-2020 01:02PM

Mad_maxx wrote: »

we have an exclusively left wing media

The most depressing part of this comment is the old saying that if everybody is accusing you of bias, then you're probably on the right track.

Sinn Féin in particular would claim that we have quite a right-focussed media. RTE would generally be more flattering towards FF, Denis O'Brien's group did their best to throw everything at Sinn Fein (and would generally be favourable towards FG), and the Irish Times while generally being fair, also give extreme right lunatics plenty of column inches.
Nobody gives a lot of space for left-leaning parties to have their say.

We don't have a very right-wing media like Fox, but we definitley don't have a left-wing one.

WomanSkirtFan8 · 10-02-2020 01:03PM

Brock Uninterested Leader wrote: »

It won't be a flash in the pan, but many of these under-30s are of the "have your cake and eat it, too" variety. They want to espouse radical socialism while benefiting from capitalism.

As soon as socialism starts to hit people where it hurts, driving away jobs and investment and lowering living standards, these same people will rethink their utopian stances. But they have to learn their lesson with SF first.

Couldn't agree more with that assessment. They may very quickly find that to be the case.

Russman · 10-02-2020 01:11PM

Mad_maxx wrote: »

I'm not sure socialist populism will be such a flash in the pan here

The SF vote amongst the under thirty demographic is huge, we have an exclusively left wing media where pro free market ideals are viewed as far dirtier than SF Marxist thought

Not to be flippant, but IMO the capital & bond markets and borrowing rates will soon bring a harsh does of reality should a Marxist govt ever come to power here.

ancapailldorcha · 10-02-2020 01:12PM

Mod: Posts deleted. Please be civil to other posters and refrain from posting memes.

blanch152 · 10-02-2020 01:14PM

handlemaster wrote: »

We had Trump and Boris. Now Mary Lou

Pretty much that explains it. This election is our Trump/Brexit. Will it last?

Thankfully, our system isn't like the US where the incumbent has all the advantage so that they have given Trump 8 years to wreak havoc, neither is the decision permanent like Brexit, so we have some chance of coming through.

My biggest concern at the moment is whether Paddy Power will pay out on my 12/1 bet on FF/SF if it turns out, as I now expect to be FF/SF/Greens.

This will play out over the next few weeks with Mary-Lou doing a grand tour to talk to every party and independent in the country. The numbers for a coalition of the left won't be enough, even if she could get over the challenge of matching turf-burners with the Greens or Healy-Rae drink laws with the Soc Dems.

Having done all that, there will be a big play of Sinn Fein talking to its own people before concluding that a deal has to be done with one or other of the big parties. Martin will get called in from the cold, he will have been talking to the Greens for the few weeks and a coalition of FF/SF/Greens will be formed.

FG will spend most of the time pretending to talk to everyone except Sinn Fein, while emphasising that it is up to those who "won" the election to take the lead.

At the end of the day, that is what the electorate have voted for. The biggest risk for a FF/SF/Green coalition is Brexit. Anything goes wrong, and there is so much that can still go wrong, FG will be able to say "I told you so" from the sidelines. SF won't get any traction in Brussels, they are viewed as a Syriza clone by the Eurocrats and FF have never been mainstream Europeans.

blanch152 · 10-02-2020 01:25PM

Mad_maxx wrote: »

I'm not sure socialist populism will be such a flash in the pan here

The SF vote amongst the under thirty demographic is huge, we have an exclusively left wing media where pro free market ideals are viewed as far dirtier than SF Marxist thought

Unfortunately, once you implement those socialist populist ideas and crash the economy, the young people who voted for Sinn Fein will be forced to leave and emigrate, so they won't be around to perpetuate the socialist utopia.

jm08 · 10-02-2020 01:32PM

blanch152 wrote: »

At the end of the day, that is what the electorate have voted for. The biggest risk for a FF/SF/Green coalition is Brexit. Anything goes wrong, and there is so much that can still go wrong, FG will be able to say "I told you so" from the sidelines. SF won't get any traction in Brussels, they are viewed as a Syriza clone by the Eurocrats and FF have never been mainstream Europeans.

Brexit is out of our hands now. It will be up to Phil Hogan to steer it in the right way. Not sure about Fianna Fail being mainstream Europeans. Pat Cox came from the Fianna Fail gene pool and it looked like Bertie Ahern next job was President of the EU Council except the crash intervened. He was highly regarded in EU circles for how he dealt with the Lisbon Treaty. Ray McSharry was also a very highly regarded commissioner as well and the Germans loved Charlie Haughey for his managing the UK and France's objections to the unification of Germany.

blanch152 · 10-02-2020 01:36PM

jm08 wrote: »

Brexit is out of our hands now. It will be up to Phil Hogan to steer it in the right way. Not sure about Fianna Fail being mainstream Europeans. Pat Cox came from the Fianna Fail gene pool and it looked like Bertie Ahern next job was President of the EU Council except the crash intervened. He was highly regarded in EU circles for how he dealt with the Lisbon Treaty. Ray McSharry was also a very highly regarded commissioner as well and the Germans loved Charlie Haughey for his managing the UK and France's objections to the unification of Germany.

Pat Cox was a Progressive Democrat.

Fianna Fail have never mixed with the political parties from other countries in the EP, always ending up in some marginal group. FG did so well through their membership of the EPP.

ancapailldorcha · 10-02-2020 01:52PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Unfortunately, once you implement those socialist populist ideas and crash the economy, the young people who voted for Sinn Fein will be forced to leave and emigrate, so they won't be around to perpetuate the socialist utopia.

Ultimately, I think Seamus is spot on above. Once they actually become the government they're going to find their capacity for delivering on their promises is going to be much less than they implied in their campaign.

They only ran 42 candidates so they will have to govern as part of a coalition which will further constrain their capacity to implement any sort of radical agenda. Ireland may be able to do well out of Brexit in terms of attracting foreign investment but anything along the lines of aggressive corporate taxation or similar noises from SF will put that to bed extremely quickly.

randomname2005 · 10-02-2020 01:57PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They only ran 42 candidates so they will have to govern as part of a coalition which will further constrain their capacity to implement any sort of radical agenda.

Or they decide they are on a streak, strategically fail to form a coalition and force a second election where they run more candidates with the hope of being the biggest party.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 10-02-2020 01:59PM

randomname2005 wrote: »

Or they decide they are on a streak, strategically fail to form a coalition and force a second election where they run more candidates with the hope of being the biggest party.

Or they are condemned by the floating portion of their vote and lost 20 seats.

ancapailldorcha · 10-02-2020 02:01PM

randomname2005 wrote: »

Or they decide they are on a streak, strategically fail to form a coalition and force a second election where they run more candidates with the hope of being the biggest party.

Can they afford another election though? Running half the number of candidates that FF and FG ran would indicate that they have financial constraints to operate within. I also think that it's a big electoral gamble to try and run the election again.

Drumpot · 10-02-2020 02:02PM

Why did they only run 42 candidates? I don’t get it.

Anyways what I find interesting is how they will get on in government. If this government is the one that is presiding over an economic crash they court end up like most smaller parties in a coalition and get decimated.

I presume FF and FG will get equal or more seats (even if only just a few) , it’s prob looking like we goto the pills again in a few weeks or we have a Theresa May kind of government basically beholden to a minority group who can hold a hammer over their heads.

So maybe greens and 2 of the big three, prob FF and SF is surely the odds on at the moment?! Unless enough independents merge.

randomname2005 · 10-02-2020 02:02PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Or they are condemned by the floating portion of their vote and lost 20 seats.

Or that. It all comes down to how hungry they are for power and being the most powerful party in a coalition.

New Dail / New Taoiseach

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