new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

dwayneshintzy · 09-02-2020 08:08PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Hong Kong is quarantining all travellers from China for 14 days.

There is panic buying and hoarding:

https://news.sky.com/story/panic-buying-in-hong-kong-amid-alarming-spread-of-coronavirus-11924399

3,600 people were quarantined on a cruise ship for days.

But your just kicking back and chillin, unlike the the rest of HK, telling us 'we're' over-reacting. Sure you are in the same Hong Kong?

Some people are being very silly and going mad buying toilet roll, yes. Are you in HK or Ireland? I went for a hike in Ma on Shan yesterday and then spent most of today at a dog park in Admiralty.

I didn't say Irish people are overreacting, I said some people in this thread (who are in Ireland) are overreacting.

s7ryf3925pivug · 09-02-2020 08:21PM

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Some people are being very silly and going mad buying toilet roll, yes. Are you in HK or Ireland? I went for a hike in Ma on Shan yesterday and then spent most of today at a dog park in Admiralty.

I didn't say Irish people are overreacting, I said some people in this thread (who are in Ireland) are overreacting.

I played in UL with my kid. Then I went to pick up extra toilet roll. I wanted to go to UL again with him today but it was stormy so we played in the garden instead.

Not sure what you're imagining. Nobody is locking themselves into bunkers. Some people are stocking up a few things so they can skip a few shopping trips if there is an outbreak.

dwayneshintzy · 09-02-2020 08:25PM

Eh? I was responding to someone who'd asked if I was really in the same HK as he was describing. The "stockpiling" by people in HK he'd referenced was mostly people going mad buying toilet roll due to false info that was being spread on WhatsApp and WeChat.

I'm not imagining anything, I know well people in Ireland aren't generally freaking out about coronavirus. Same can't be said about some people in this thread though, which was what I was originally commenting on.

saabsaab · 09-02-2020 08:57PM

Well, a lot isn't known about this new coronavirus but in no particular order these are the facts

1. It is highly infectious as shown by the rate of spread in Wuhan and the cruise ship case.
2. There is no cure or vaccine as of now.
3. It is fatal for a certain percentage that are infected.
4. The Chinese Government is taking it very seriously and have great difficulty controlling the spread in spite of the actions taken.
5. We would be better off not having it arrive here.

All the above is plenty good reason to be anxious about this arriving here even 'freak out' about it.

RebelButtMunch · 09-02-2020 09:08PM

saabsaab wrote: »

Well, a lot isn't known about this new coronavirus but in no particular order these are the facts

1. It is highly infectious as shown by the rate of spread in Wuhan and the cruise ship case.
2. There is no cure or vaccine as of now.
3. It is fatal for a certain percentage that are infected.
4. The Chinese Government is taking it very seriously and have great difficulty controlling the spread in spite of the actions taken.
5. We would be better off not having it arrive here.

All the above is plenty good reason to be anxious about this arriving here even 'freak out' about it.

No it's not.

saabsaab · 09-02-2020 09:13PM

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

No it's not.

'Oh Yes it is!'

Panto answer

sondagefaux · 09-02-2020 09:59PM

saabsaab wrote: »

Well, a lot isn't known about this new coronavirus but in no particular order these are the facts

1. It is highly infectious as shown by the rate of spread in Wuhan and the cruise ship case.
2. There is no cure or vaccine as of now.
3. It is fatal for a certain percentage that are infected.
4. The Chinese Government is taking it very seriously and have great difficulty controlling the spread in spite of the actions taken.
5. We would be better off not having it arrive here.

All the above is plenty good reason to be anxious about this arriving here even 'freak out' about it.

The mortality rate is about 2%, although it could be far less as a lot of people who get it are asymptomatic or have such mild symptoms they don't even know they have it, and it's usually people who are already vulnerable through other illness or underlying health problems.

s7ryf3925pivug · 09-02-2020 10:22PM

WHO situation report for today still says Global risk: High.

CinemaGuy45 · 09-02-2020 10:24PM

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

No it's not.

saabsaab wrote: »

'Oh Yes it is!'

Glad I kept away from the silly sites online and came here to stay informed.:D

Timberrrrrrrr · 09-02-2020 10:29PM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Glad I kept away from the silly sites online and came here to stay informed.:D

It's like an xmas panto!!

He said

She said

SeaBreezes · 09-02-2020 11:09PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Someone should do a thesis on this thread when the crisis is over.

sondagefaux wrote: »

The mortality rate is about 2%, although it could be far less as a lot of people who get it are asymptomatic or have such mild symptoms they don't even know they have it, and it's usually people who are already vulnerable through other illness or underlying health problems.

It's my understanding from WHO that 80% infected get a mild flu. Approx 15% are critical ( needing medical assistance to breathe) and 2-3% fatal regardless of ICU and medical intervention.
So, if your lucky it's mild. If you get severe symptoms and there is medical assistance, then you have a 1 in 4 chance of surviving.

But if hospitals are overwhelmed (as this spreads so fast that is an possibility) then the mortality rate will spike as the 15% of severe cases will not get the assistance they need to breathe long enough to fight off the disease.

So, our best bet is to slow down the spread of the disease. And forewarned is a good thing. But I can't see how any of us can avoid rolling the dice
With this bug eventually it's more infectious than flu with Ro of 3
To 4, if I understand it correctly.

Hysteria helps no one, but it's just the flu is equally unhelpful.

Does anyone have any updates on the Wirral or the Germans?

fritzelly · 09-02-2020 11:16PM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1226630840077160448

Fr_Dougal · 09-02-2020 11:38PM

cnocbui wrote: »

A bit more on those amazing official numbers out of China.

https://twitter.com/Charlie_Box/status/1226203341086175233

There are currently 40,134 confirmed cases worldwide, including 904 fatalities.

2.2%

fritzelly · 09-02-2020 11:40PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

There are currently 40,134 confirmed cases worldwide, including 904 fatalities.

2.2%

The reported cases do not make sense - the QQ site always reports higher numbers than BNO News does at the same time
Maybe QQ have duplicates

edit actually BNO have a slightly higher confirmed today

ardinn · 09-02-2020 11:41PM

Todays updates

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTGEf1u-wVc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjTpd8KzUn0

09-02-2020 11:45PM

BBC News - Coronavirus: Thousands on cruise ship allowed to disembark after tests
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51433079

Am I missing something or are we giving up on quarantine now?

silverharp · 09-02-2020 11:45PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Hysteria helps no one, but it's just the flu is equally unhelpful.

Does anyone have any updates on the Wirral or the Germans?

still curious if this might be worse for Asians for genetic reasons? if it ended up being only generally fatal for Asians and mostly sniffles for everyone else, then that would give it a particular framing.
the severe cases sound awful that means other people die because of a clogged health service, staff sick etc.

hmmm · 09-02-2020 11:51PM

silverharp wrote: »

still curious if this might be worse for Asians for genetic reasons?

There was an early study based on a sample size of 8, and in the 8 was 1 Asian person who got infected. Ever since that (ridiculous imo) study, there has been this persistent rumour that it would only affect Asian people - I think it's largely people grasping for straws at this moment.

It also looks to me that the strategy worldwide has now shifted to slowing it down, as containment largely looks impossible owing to the size of the initial outbreak. There's not going to be much point in the media breathlessly reporting every inidividual case, we're just going to have to get used to being a bit more careful about washing our hands, and if feeling sick or feverish employers are going to have to encourage people to stay at home for a week or two just in case. Hopefully the greatest victim of all this is the open office.

We should have faster testing in the near future, hopefully Summer reduces the spread, and there should hopefully be a vaccine available early next year.

Fr_Dougal · 10-02-2020 12:06AM

Deleted User wrote: »

BBC News - Coronavirus: Thousands on cruise ship allowed to disembark after tests
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51433079

Am I missing something or are we giving up on quarantine now?

That’s not the cruise ship with the 80~ confirmed cased, different vessel.

This one was quarantined because they thought the staff might be infected.

SeaBreezes · 10-02-2020 12:13AM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

There are currently 40,134 confirmed cases worldwide, including 904 fatalities.

2.2%

So we know the progression of the disease is 7-14 days asymptomatic but infectious.
Week1 symptoms of a flu. If lucky recover.
Week2 severe symptoms, need hospital assistance.
Week3-4 recover or pass away.

So, the mortality rate of today should be compared with #of infected 3-4 weeks ago? What does that work out as?

saabsaab · 10-02-2020 12:19AM

silverharp wrote: »

still curious if this might be worse for Asians for genetic reasons? if it ended up being only generally fatal for Asians and mostly sniffles for everyone else, then that would give it a particular framing.
the severe cases sound awful that means other people die because of a clogged health service, staff sick etc.

Even if this were true and I don't think it will be, we have around 50k Asians in this country, not counting native Irish people of part Asian ancestry. Just think that nearly town has an Asian restaurant or take away. That's a lot of people to be affected here.

Fr_Dougal · 10-02-2020 12:27AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

So we know the progression of the disease is 7-14 days asymptomatic but infectious.
Week1 symptoms of a flu. If lucky recover.
Week2 severe symptoms, need hospital assistance.
Week3-4 recover or pass away.

So, the mortality rate of today should be compared with #of infected 3-4 weeks ago? What does that work out as?

It has been a constant 2.1-2.2%, this is practically unheard of when following the usual bell curve for these viruses. The official numbers are extremely questionable, to put it mildly.

fritzelly · 10-02-2020 12:39AM

Use google translate - the translate link is not working
https://view.inews.qq.com/w2/20200209A0P3L200?tbkt=J&strategy=&uid=

One thing I'm curious about, and maybe someone can answer, is why are they putting the fatality rate at about 2% when the fatality numbers are running at about 25% of the cured?
I know if you take the actual infected and the deaths then it is 2% - but the people recovering every day isn't that great and the numbers of serious/critical is increasing

saabsaab · 10-02-2020 12:39AM

I see the cruise company are refunding the fares paid to all on that ship quarantined in Japan. Also giving a credit to the same amount on any future cruise.

bodhrandude · 10-02-2020 01:02AM

ardinn wrote: »

Todays updates

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTGEf1u-wVc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjTpd8KzUn0

Love this guy, makes me feel at ease.

wakka12 · 10-02-2020 01:05AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Use google translate - the translate link is not working
https://view.inews.qq.com/w2/20200209A0P3L200?tbkt=J&strategy=&uid=

One thing I'm curious about, and maybe someone can answer, is why are they putting the fatality rate at about 2% when the fatality numbers are running at about 25% of the cured?
I know if you take the actual infected and the deaths then it is 2% - but the people recovering every day isn't that great and the numbers of serious/critical is increasing

Because it takes longer for people to be fully certified as recovered and virus free than die. The death rate is based on the outcome of an early sample size that have all been infected around the same period and all went through the same stages of the virus simultaneously leading to most recovering and approximately 2% of them dying

s7ryf3925pivug · 10-02-2020 01:09AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Use google translate - the translate link is not working
https://view.inews.qq.com/w2/20200209A0P3L200?tbkt=J&strategy=&uid=

One thing I'm curious about, and maybe someone can answer, is why are they putting the fatality rate at about 2% when the fatality numbers are running at about 25% of the cured?
I know if you take the actual infected and the deaths then it is 2% - but the people recovering every day isn't that great and the numbers of serious/critical is increasing

I was wondering that myself. My take is that it is the standard approach as the diagnosed figure is probably more accurate than the recovered figure. Usually it would not make much difference however in this case the virus is spreading so quickly that I think the values are skewed and the death rate is probably closer to 8%. I think the number of people infected is increasing by a factor of about 4 in the period of time it takes for someone to go from diagnosed to dead.

drunkmonkey · 10-02-2020 01:11AM

Sounds like all flights from China stopped, Russian border closed, 60 million under quarantine. Kill rate at 17%, North Korea are fecked, Amazon pulls out of MWC in Barcelona https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51438845

U.S. Intelligence has now confirmed a devastating fact about the Coronavirus outbreak in China.

The virus is not only shed by breathing, coughing, and sneezing, it also comes out in urine but more so via fecal matter.

That fecal matter goes into a toilet, which gets flushed, sending the waste into the public, sanitary sewer system.

Once in the sewers, normal flow in the sewer moves the waste toward a treatment plant, MILES away. Along the way, there are manhole covers.

Evaporation allows the virus to rise-up OUT OF THE MANHOLE COVERS and into the fresh air.

So an infected person takes a dump at one end of town, flushes his toilet, and the virus in his feces evaporates out a manhole cover on the other end of town.

This is why big cities are seeing "blooms" of virus outbreak in unrelated areas.

Unstoppable spread of contagion.

There's my evening update, don't ask for links....Amazon pulling out of MWC says this is on our doorstep already.

fritzelly · 10-02-2020 01:13AM

Update - deaths now nearly topping 100 per day
One curious thing is while 4000 new suspected the number of total suspected dropped by over 5000 - is this people just getting over a cold - anyone know the mechanisms for suspected?

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1226656498245406720

Fr_Dougal · 10-02-2020 01:17AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Sounds like all flights from China stopped, Russian border closed, 60 million under quarantine. Kill rate at 17%, North Korea are fecked, Amazon pulls out of MWC in Barcelona https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51438845

U.S. Intelligence has now confirmed a devastating fact about the Coronavirus outbreak in China.

The virus is not only shed by breathing, coughing, and sneezing, it also comes out in urine but more so via fecal matter.

That fecal matter goes into a toilet, which gets flushed, sending the waste into the public, sanitary sewer system.

Once in the sewers, normal flow in the sewer moves the waste toward a treatment plant, MILES away. Along the way, there are manhole covers.

Evaporation allows the virus to rise-up OUT OF THE MANHOLE COVERS and into the fresh air.

So an infected person takes a dump at one end of town, flushes his toilet, and the virus in his feces evaporates out a manhole cover on the other end of town.

This is why big cities are seeing "blooms" of virus outbreak in unrelated areas.

Unstoppable spread of contagion.

There's my evening update, don't ask for links....Amazon pulling out of MWC says this is on our doorstep already.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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