Mayo constituency GE2020

Cosmo Kramer · 10-02-2020 12:29AM

Mickeroo wrote: »

What am I missing with the numbers above? Calleary and Chambers must be a done deal at this stage for 3 and 4 now no? Or is there a load of transfers still left to come into play?

It's one from three for the last seat so there's about 6,000 transfers from either Dillon or Mulherin to come into play tomorrow morning. If Mulherin is eliminated Dillon will probably get the last seat. If Dillon is eliminated and it ends up between Mulherin and Chambers for the last seat it could go either way - local Castlebar transfers (to Chambers) against political party transfers (to Mulherin).

Shelflife · 10-02-2020 12:29AM

Mulherin is still ahead at a point that I didnt expect her to be.

Ive a sneaking suspicion that she might sneak it.

nuac · 10-02-2020 12:31AM

Unless CHambers does very very well from McHugh's elimination.

1wizards sleeve · 10-02-2020 12:32AM

Dudda wrote: »

If you add Lawless, McHugh and then Mulherin who will all get eliminated then you have 15,045 potential transfers. While some won't transfer it's still a lot of potential votes and counting to go.

I may be wrong but I'm not so sure Dillon will transfer that great. And mulherin was breaking party structure by canvassing in knock home to lawless. I'm sure she was pushing her conservative views . I hope I'm wrong and Dillon passes her out. IV no idea re MC Hugh's votes it's kinda a lottery I'd say.

mickdw · 10-02-2020 12:41AM

A big result for McHugh. Close behind Dillon who surely had Kenny and the Kenny party machine behind him.

Dudda · 10-02-2020 12:44AM

1wizards sleeve wrote: »

I may be wrong but I'm not so sure Dillon will transfer that great. And mulherin was breaking party structure by canvassing in knock home to lawless. I'm sure she was pushing her conservative views . I hope I'm wrong and Dillon passes her out. IV no idea re MC Hugh's votes it's kinda a lottery I'd say.

All Dillon has to do is transfer better than Mulherin. Calleary and Chambers can and probably will do better than both remaining FG candidates but all Dillon has to do is jump Mulherin to stay in the race. I think I showed earlier with the first preferences he has the potential.

This is up to a point where Chambers could build a lead that's so big the Mulherin transfers won't be enough to help Dillon jump Chambers into the last seat but she'd need a big lead.

I just can't see Mulherin ahead of Dillon after the McHugh transfers.

1wizards sleeve · 10-02-2020 12:45AM

mickdw wrote: »

A big result for McHugh. Close behind Dillon who surely had Kenny and the Kenny part machine behind him.

She got a poor 1st preference but has transferred v good it seems.

Looptheloop30 · 10-02-2020 12:48AM

Are they still counting or shutting up shop for the night?

1wizards sleeve · 10-02-2020 12:48AM

Dudda wrote: »

All Dillon has to do is transfer better than Mulherin. Calleary and Chambers can and probably will do better than both remaining FG candidates but all Dillon has to do is jump Mulherin to stay in the race. I think I showed earlier with the first preferences he has the potential.

This is up to a point where Chambers could build a lead that's so big the Mulherin transfers won't be enough to help Dillon jump Chambers into the last seat but she'd need a big lead.

I just can't see Mulherin ahead of Dillon after the McHugh transfers.

I hear you. I hope you are right. I'd rather mulherin to be eliminated. But if lawless transfers to her the gap maybe to big.

Dudda · 10-02-2020 12:52AM

1wizards sleeve wrote: »

I hear you. I hope you are right. I'd rather mulherin to be eliminated. But if lawless transfers to her the gap maybe to big.

I don't think Lawless with transfer to her as most his votes were in Claremorris and the first preference from the tally was:

Claremorris
Dillon 8.3%, Mulherin 4.7%

So I reckon Dillon should get more of Lawless transfers than Mulherin.

I've just made another cup of tea while waiting!

Dudda · 10-02-2020 12:56AM

Fifth Count, Quota: 12,871
Distribution of Lawless's 3,375 surplus votes.

Dara Calleary (FF): 10,429 (+555)
Lisa Chambers (FF): 7,375 (+313)
Alan Dillon (FG): 6,553 (+438)
Saoirse McHugh (GP): 6,036 (+651)
Michelle Mulherin (FG): 6,596 (+311)

Dillon getting closer to Mulherin and Chambers not growing the gap.

Dillon will now jump Mulherin on McHugh transfers

Edit: count continues. Anyone else with work tomorrow staying up?

Bunny Colvin · 10-02-2020 01:00AM

Can't see any one candidate getting a huge boost from McHugh's votes, you'd imagine they'll cancel each other out.

RedDevil55 · 10-02-2020 01:01AM

Getting tense now! Another count tonight?

Cosmo Kramer · 10-02-2020 01:02AM

Only 43 between Dillon and Mulherin now. Looks like Mulherin is done and her votes will probably get Dillon over the line in the final count.

Thought they'd call it a night at this stage rather than start transferring 6,000 McHugh votes but it seems they're battering on for now.

Bunny Colvin · 10-02-2020 01:02AM

RedDevil55 wrote: »

Getting tense now! Another count tonight?

Looks that way.

Loafing Oaf · 10-02-2020 01:02AM

Bunny Colvin wrote: »

Can't see any one candidate getting a huge boost from McHugh's votes, you'd imagine they'll cancel each other out.

Dillon doesn't need a huge boost to pass out Mulherin.

Mickeroo · 10-02-2020 01:04AM

Bunny Colvin wrote: »

Can't see any one candidate getting a huge boost from McHugh's votes, you'd imagine they'll cancel each other out.

Can't see many McHugh voters giving a bible basher like Mulherin a transfer, reckon its down to Dillon and Chambers once Saoirse is gone.

Shelflife · 10-02-2020 01:06AM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Dillon doesn't need a huge boost to pass out Mulherin.

No, but he needs to get more than her.

Looptheloop30 · 10-02-2020 01:06AM

Chambers really could have done with Calleary being home and hosed by now and the small boost it could have given
#CaptainObvious

Knock2 · 10-02-2020 01:06AM

Why do you think Alan will transfer better from Mchugh than chambers or mulherin

Bunny Colvin · 10-02-2020 01:08AM

Mickeroo wrote: »

Can't see many McHugh voters giving a bible basher like Mulherin a transfer, reckon its down to Dillon and Chambers once Saoirse is gone.

True, out of the three you'd imagine she'd fair out the worst.

Loafing Oaf · 10-02-2020 01:09AM

Knock2 wrote: »

Why do you think Alan will transfer better from Mchugh than chambers or mulherin

I refer you to:

Dudda wrote: »

My thoughts on the Dillon v Mulherin battle which is what I think will win the final seat. Looking at the tallies from earlier:

Dillon obviously did well in his hometown of Castlebar and likewise Mulherin in Ballina. Both got the same 3100. But the rest?

Belmullet
Dillon 2.6%, Mulherin 0.8%

Westport
Dillon 2.5, Mulherin 0.9%

Claremorris
Dillon 8.3%, Mulherin 4.7%

Swinford
Dillon 6.5, Mulherin 12.3%

Lawless who has a lot of votes to distribute is from Knock and therefore scored highly in Claremorris. Looking at first preference above they should fall more to Dillon.

Likewise when McHugh is eliminated next (I don't see her catching and passing Dillon as she's 1300 behind and Lawless has only 2800 to distribute) then her votes get distributed. McHugh did well overall getting 5-6% everywhere so except Westport where she got 10%. This is where Dillon outpolled Mulherin 2.5 to 1.
McHugh also got twice the votes in Castlebar than in Ballina so again should be more to Dillon. Belmullet, Claremorris and Swinford cancel each other out.

Overall I see these push Dillon ahead of Mulherin and then when Mulherin is eliminated, Dillon should easily enough jump Chambers into the final seat.

I can't see Calleary getting to the quota as his big vote in Ballina is not where McHugh or Lawless have loads to give. Calleary therefore has no surplus to give to Chambers.

So where I see it is on the last count Calleary and Dillon elected with Lisa eliminated.
No more counts tonight so have to wait until tomorrow to see if that's what happens.

Dudda · 10-02-2020 01:09AM

Knock2 wrote: »

Why do you think Alan will transfer better from Mchugh than chambers or mulherin

This is my post from an hour ago.

Dudda wrote: »

when McHugh is eliminated next ...... then her votes get distributed. McHugh did well overall getting 5-6% everywhere so except Westport where she got 10%. This is where Dillon outpolled Mulherin 2.5 to 1.
McHugh also got twice the votes in Castlebar than in Ballina so again should be more to Dillon. Belmullet, Claremorris and Swinford cancel each other out.

10-02-2020 01:10AM

Will mulherin not get more transfers than dillon from mchugh.

Knock2 · 10-02-2020 01:12AM

Excellent thank you

10-02-2020 02:04AM

Are they finished for the night ?

Westernyelp · 10-02-2020 02:06AM

Mulherin just eliminated

Dillon will take the last seat after Dara now

RedDevil55 · 10-02-2020 02:06AM

Sixth Count, Quota: 12,871
Distribution of McHugh's 6,036 votes.

Dara Calleary (FF): 11,130 (+701)
Lisa Chambers (FF): 8,363 (+988)
Alan Dillon (FG): 7,648 (+1,095)
Michelle Mulherin (FG): 7,427 (+831)

Non-transferable papers: 2,421

Mulherin is excluded.

#GE2020 #Mayo

RedDevil55 · 10-02-2020 02:07AM

I thought Chambers would get more of the McHugh vote. Alan Dillon surely has it now

Dudda · 10-02-2020 02:10AM

Sixth Count, Quota: 12,871
Distribution of McHugh's 6,036 votes.

Dara Calleary (FF): 11,130 (+701)
Lisa Chambers (FF): 8,363 (+988)
Alan Dillon (FG): 7,648 (+1,095)
Michelle Mulherin (FG): 7,427 (+831)

Non-transferable papers: 2,421

Mulherin is excluded.

So now distributing Mulherin votes which means Dillon will pass Chambers.

Also note that not only did Dillon pass Mulherin he passed her well and did the best of all candidates.

So after the next count we'll have Calleary and Dillon elected.

Only hope is if Calleary makes the quota and has some surplus to give Chambers. This is possible as Calleary might pick up a few votes from Mulherin as they're both Ballina based. Small chance but possible.

Mayo constituency GE2020

Comments