GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Spanish Eyes · 09-02-2020 10:31PM

The surplus distribution has never been fully explained except for the first count really, where a percentage of the total vote of a candidate who has exceeded the quota is distributed percentage wise for 2nd pref for the surplus. At least that's what I THINK!

After that it is a mystery. But I'm sure the political bods know what's right and wrong. So that's that. I am sure it is all above board and a sample or something is taken etc.

is_that_so · 09-02-2020 10:31PM

ygolometsipe wrote: »

Watching Charlie F. He could be in trouble

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020-constituencies/2020/0122/1110164-laois-offaly/

He's really not. Look at the votes of his running mate, she'll take him home comfortably.

jos28 · 09-02-2020 10:31PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, but the question is how are the 2000 picked. Is it simply just the 2000 at the top of the pile?

My understanding is that ALL ballot papers are examined again.

For example:

Candidate A receives 6000 first preference votes at the first count. The quota is 5000. A is elected with a surplus of 1000 votes.

Out of A’s 6000 total votes, 30% gave their second preference to B, and 20% gave their second preference to C.

B receives 300 votes (30% of 1000) and C receives 200 votes (20% of 1000) etc

elperello · 09-02-2020 10:31PM

Feisar wrote: »

The foreva home people are taking over.

"Socialism is great until you run out of other peoples money" - Margaret Thatcher

She didn't say socialism is great, she hated it.

The correct quote is

"The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other peoples money"

Margaret Thatcher

(well known friend of Ireland)

threeball · 09-02-2020 10:32PM

STB. wrote: »

Neither will go into power with them. They wont be given a second chance either. The only show now is an FF/FG duet! Ego's will have to put aside.

FG definitely won't but I'm not convinced about FF. You could see their spokesmen crossing their fingers in their pocket every time they said no. I wouldn't trust a word FF say.

lmimmfn · 09-02-2020 10:33PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NewstalkFM/status/1226465421869666304?s=20

#change

SF voters are already complaining about the behaviour of SF candidates.

Don't see why, FG played a blinder with their support for the black and tans

Cork Boy 53 · 09-02-2020 10:33PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

Fcuk! Fg can forget a vote from me and many people I know. Until that useless windbag is gone !

Your other favourite Micheal Martin has just been elected as well.

MICKEYG · 09-02-2020 10:34PM

jos28 wrote: »

Each of those 2000 surplus papers are distributed to the second preference on each paper.

How do they decide which 2000 to use?

Sorry, just saw it answered

Sir Oxman · 09-02-2020 10:34PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

FF and FG didn't run on a bloc ticket and didn't present themselves as a bloc to the electorate. No FF or FG voter went to the pool yesterday looking to elect a FF and FG combination.

i'm not advocating for it but it is the natural coalition and they will get the largest bloc of seats.
And I'd question that the entirety of their voters didn't take it into account and would be ok with it bar a few fanatics.

It would be advantageous for SF if this happens but not for the public unless they both have learned their lesson on housing and the cost of living

Leroy42 · 09-02-2020 10:34PM

FG and FF will have to merge otherwise they will simply take each others votes in each constituency. Similar to running too many party candidates. Whether that involves a complete merger or a split into left and right and then merge with SF of FFG is the only real question left to be answered.

The days of one or other of them having enough to be a majority appear to be over.

namloc1980 · 09-02-2020 10:34PM

STB. wrote: »

FF and FG gave commitments to their voters not to have anything to do with SF.

FF gave a commitment not to have anything to do with FG.

JP Liz V1 · 09-02-2020 10:34PM

ShaneU wrote: »

Varadkar voted in on FIFTH count. First FFG elected in Dublin so far

I demand a recount

09-02-2020 10:35PM

ygolometsipe wrote: »

Watching Charlie F. He could be in trouble

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020-constituencies/2020/0122/1110164-laois-offaly/

He is not in trouble. He'll pick up votes from Laois candidates who are eliminated. Laois Offaly is a strange constituency. they'll vote across party lines to keep local often.

elperello · 09-02-2020 10:35PM

olestoepoke wrote: »

Really? You'd never know with the posh English accent.

The posh English would recognise his Irish accent immediately.

Part of the tragedy of his class of people.

is_that_so · 09-02-2020 10:35PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

FF gave a commitment not to have anything to do with FG.

In coalition

jos28 · 09-02-2020 10:35PM

threeball wrote: »

FG definitely won't but I'm not convinced about FF. You could see their spokesmen crossing their fingers in their pocket every time they said no. I wouldn't trust a word FF say.

Me neither

namloc1980 · 09-02-2020 10:36PM

SF 45% of the vote in Donegal.

Sir Oxman · 09-02-2020 10:37PM

FF finally get someone elected 11 hours after the count began.
M. Martin, Cork SC

drunkmonkey · 09-02-2020 10:37PM

Is FF trolling FG by pretending they'll cosy up with Sinn Fein just to give them more bargaining power when they decide to shack with with FG.

Spanish Eyes · 09-02-2020 10:37PM

Five more years of FFG would mean they REALLY have to do what the electorate want. Deliver change and quickly. Their strategists know this now.

But to be fair, I am a worry wart, and do not want instability or any danger to the economy right now. We are doing alright with a steady ship, albeit with many holes in the bow.

But then again recession beckons, the cycle of boom is nearing completion. So let's see who gets to clean up the next mess.

blackcard · 09-02-2020 10:37PM

What are the latest projections of seats for each party? I am hoping that SF gets more seats than FG and go into government with FF. See what they can do.

lmimmfn · 09-02-2020 10:37PM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

FF finally get someone elected 11 hours after the count began.
M. Martin, Cork SC

Boooo

limnam · 09-02-2020 10:38PM

joan burton gone

Fr_Dougal · 09-02-2020 10:38PM

Suckit wrote: »

Feel a bit sad to see Shane Ross go.

Shane ‘No bailout for the FAI’ Ross, who gave them a €20m bailout?

Good riddance.

from_atozinc · 09-02-2020 10:39PM

When a politician does not get elected who was elected last time, what do they do with themselves or work at etc?

drunkmonkey · 09-02-2020 10:39PM

blackcard wrote: »

What are the latest projections of seats for each party? I am hoping that SF gets more seats than FG and go into government with FF. See what they can do.

Serious question do you work for a living and have any ambition to better your lot.

LeinsterDub · 09-02-2020 10:39PM

jos28 wrote: »

My understanding is that ALL ballot papers are examined again.

For example:

Candidate A receives 6000 first preference votes at the first count. The quota is 5000. A is elected with a surplus of 1000 votes.

Out of A’s 6000 total votes, 30% gave their second preference to B, and 20% gave their second preference to C.

B receives 300 votes (30% of 1000) and C receives 200 votes (20% of 1000) etc

The would take a month to count.

The random element may occur as a consequence of surplus distribution. If the
surplus votes of an elected candidate are fewer than the number of transferable votes in the parcel being
examined, Irish electoral law provides, in effect, for a random selection of papers to pass to continuing
candidates. Further preferences on these papers may affect the final outcome of the election

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.tara.tcd.ie/bitstream/handle/2262/68751/v16n11984_1.pdf%3Fsequence%3D1%26isAllowed%3Dy&ved=2ahUKEwiL5-bGtsXnAhVgRBUIHTTICKwQFjATegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw3IBl5ZRhCblSotQp0ATwQ_&cshid=1581284240821

Muahahaha · 09-02-2020 10:39PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think O'Cuiv is in a humdinger fight for a seat with the SF candidate.

O'Cuiv will be grand though, the only a question is if he gets elected first or second. He has a political monopoly on the Aran islands and in Connemara because he secured them subsidies for living there.

is_that_so · 09-02-2020 10:39PM

blackcard wrote: »

What are the latest projections of seats for each party? I am hoping that SF gets more seats than FG and go into government with FF. See what they can do.

Paddy Power might be a good place to look. Nobody else is risking a guess!

tikkahunter · 09-02-2020 10:39PM

limnam wrote: »

joan burton gone

In fairness she has done good work for her constituency for years but she was really up against it this time.

GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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