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GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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Comments

  • #2762
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,218 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Quick question - how are surplus votes decided
    If there is 2000 votes above the quota how is it decided which 2000 votes second preferences are used?


  • #2763
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,527 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Is that confirmed? If so thats excellent news, Regina epitomises Fine Gael arrogance

    She's 3k behind the 3rd seat and barring getting an improbably high number of transfers she's toasted.


  • #2764
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Jim O'Callaghan resolute on the commitment not to talk to SF...is FF gonna tear itself apart?
    So far we have Thomas Byrne and John McGuinness talking about it, not what I'd call tearing itself apart.


  • #2765
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,141 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Jim O'Callaghan resolute on the commitment not to talk to SF...is FF gonna tear itself apart?

    Best thing for FF to do now is split into a Republican Party that could align itself with SF, and the other part go with FG. There is the mere width of a sheet of toilet paper between them anyway. Can't mention cigarette papers anymore or will be sent to the Gulag.


  • #2766
    listermint
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,098 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Hurrache wrote: »
    Look, I'm OK with knowing you're wrong about your claim that the only high rise living in European capitals was Grenfell Tower, and with the thinking that criticism of a leaders brand of winter coat is a valid form of political debate and analysis is a reflection of you, not me.

    Jesus your trying hard.

    Does it hurt ?


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  • #2767
    threeball
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭threeball


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    The Irish public has rejected their right policies. How will moving further right help?

    FG have almost no right wing policies. Far more centre or even socialist. They're big on social welfare. The only right wing policy is not getting involved in the housing market. Taxation is more along left wing lines also when it comes to the ordinary working person. Less so with multinational but all parties are terrified they'll move elsewhere if touched. SF won't touch them either.


  • #2768
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    is_that_so wrote: »
    FF will really not go for that unless there is absolutely no other option and they can stomach the FG demands.

    Their politics are like two peas in a pod, that wont be an issue. Just a little bit of jostling for who gets what jobs. It an attractive option for them. What else ? MM retires never being PM? Another 5 years in purgatory for the crash? The fundamentals are good. The economy might not be so healthy in 5 years time. Its a good time really to try and ride it and be associated with some problems solved. A full coalition, insulated from any sniping from the opposition or tetchy and unreliable independents will enable a pretty strong govt. And they both know they only have two issues - housing and health. And its in both their interests to deliver those whatever else.
    Its a done deal folks. I dont think I have been incorrect in a post in this thread yet.


  • #2769
    Suckit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,211 ✭✭✭✭Suckit


    Feel a bit sad to see Shane Ross go. :)


  • #2770
    ygolometsipe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 882 ✭✭✭ygolometsipe


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Quick question - how are surplus votes decided
    If there is 2000 votes above the quota how is it decided which 2000 votes second preferences are used?


    This is a really simple and good explanation of STV.


    https://www.facebook.com/rtenews/videos/670400397116276/


  • #2771
    Feisar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,943 ✭✭✭Feisar


    The foreva home people are taking over.

    "Socialism is great until you run out of other peoples money" - Margaret Thatcher

    First they came for the socialists...



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  • #2772
    jos28
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,256 ✭✭✭jos28


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Quick question - how are surplus votes decided
    If there is 2000 votes above the quota how is it decided which 2000 votes second preferences are used?

    Each of those 2000 surplus papers are distributed to the second preference on each paper.


  • #2773
    listermint
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,098 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Feisar wrote: »
    The foreva home people are taking over.

    "Socialism is great until you run out of other peoples money" - Margaret Thatcher

    A woman who's legacy has been socialising public funds into private enterprise since the 80s.


  • #2774
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    The people do not want FFG. Not sure how you make out that they do. Around 44% will vote for FFG meaning a majority of the electorate did not vote for them
    It's the biggest bloc vote for sure unless we're all saying FF and FG are completely different in every way possible now?


  • #2775
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Quick question - how are surplus votes decided
    If there is 2000 votes above the quota how is it decided which 2000 votes second preferences are used?

    Short answer its a percentage but how that percentage is picked is basically random


  • #2776
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,101 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    jos28 wrote: »
    Each of those 2000 surplus papers are distributed to the second preference on each paper.

    Yes, but the question is how are the 2000 picked. Is it simply just the 2000 at the top of the pile?


  • #2777
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,220 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    is_that_so wrote: »
    So far we have Thomas Byrne and John McGuinness talking about it, not what I'd call tearing itself apart.

    Real politik and real people. Never mind the PR gloss, politics is cut throat. Just try to imagine yourself in the position FF deputies are in now and where they expected to be.
    Daggers.


  • #2778
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    With varadkar gone. Another election might suit sf and Fg

    Gone as leader of FG or a TD? He`s just been elected.


  • #2779
    threeball
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭threeball


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    Their politics are like two peas in a pod, that wont be an issue. Just a little bit of jostling for who gets what jobs. It an attractive option for them. What else ? MM retires never being PM? Another 5 years in purgatory for the crash? The fundamentals are good. The economy might not be so healthy in 5 years time. Its a good time really to try and ride it and be associated with some problems solved. A full coalition, insulated from any sniping from the opposition or tetchy and unreliable independents will enable a pretty strong govt. And they both know they only have two issues - housing and health. And its in both their interests to deliver those whatever else.
    Its a done deal folks. I dont think I have been incorrect in a post in this thread yet.

    Except it hands SF a huge platform in opposition, one which they might struggle to remove them from next time out. Better to let SF ride their mandate now and sit back to pick up the pieces.


  • #2780
    olestoepoke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,383 ✭✭✭olestoepoke


    Suckit wrote: »
    Feel a bit sad to see Shane Ross go. :)
    Why?


  • #2781
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,447 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Gone as leader of FG or a TD? He`s just been elected.

    I just heard. Awful news for this country and Fg ! That waster epitomises everything wrong with this country !


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  • #2782
    ygolometsipe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 882 ✭✭✭ygolometsipe


    Watching Charlie F. He could be in trouble :D



    https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020-constituencies/2020/0122/1110164-laois-offaly/



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    EQXRmp3WoAARx8r?format=jpg&name=small


  • #2783
    olestoepoke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,383 ✭✭✭olestoepoke


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Born and raised in Dundrum actually.
    Really? You'd never know with the posh English accent.


  • #2784
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,771 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    She's 3k behind the 3rd seat and barring getting an improbably high number of transfers she's toasted.

    That really is wonderful news, Regina needed that smug look wiped off her face. Chickens home to roost and all that.
    is_that_so wrote: »
    So far we have Thomas Byrne and John McGuinness talking about it, not what I'd call tearing itself apart.

    I presume Eamon deValera is topping the poll as usual in Galway west and will chime in on coalition with the SF soon


  • #2785
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,179 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    I just heard. Awful news for this country and Fg ! That waster epitomises everything wrong with this country !

    You were voting for him last week!! :)


  • #2786
    STB.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,380 ✭✭✭STB.


    threeball wrote: »
    Except it hands SF a huge platform in opposition, one which they might struggle to remove them from next time out. Better to let SF ride their mandate now and sit back to pick up the pieces.


    Neither will go into power with them. They wont be given a second chance either. The only show now is an FF/FG duet! Ego's will have to be put aside.


  • #2787
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,527 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Sir Oxman wrote: »
    It's the biggest bloc vote for sure unless we're all saying FF and FG are completely different in every way possible now?

    FF and FG didn't run on a bloc ticket and didn't present themselves as a bloc to the electorate. No FF or FG voter went to the pool yesterday looking to elect a FF and FG combination.


  • #2788
    Suckit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,211 ✭✭✭✭Suckit


    olestoepoke wrote: »
    Why?
    Good question. I don't feel too bad. Just a little. I'll get over it.


  • #2789
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,220 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    That really is wonderful news, Regina needed that smug look wiped off her face. Chickens home to roost and all that.



    I presume Eamon deValera is topping the poll as usual in Galway west and will chime in on coalition with the SF soon

    I think O'Cuiv is in a humdinger fight for a seat with the SF candidate.


  • #2790
    STB.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,380 ✭✭✭STB.


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    FF and FG didn't run on a bloc ticket and didn't present themselves as a bloc to the electorate. No FF or FG voter went to the pool yesterday looking to elect a FF and FG combination.


    FF and FG gave commitments to their voters not to have anything to do with SF.


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  • #2791
    Hercule Poirot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,231 ✭✭✭Hercule Poirot


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Yes, but the question is how are the 2000 picked. Is it simply just the 2000 at the top of the pile?

    Let's say candidate A has a surplus of 100 - they go through all of candidates A's votes for second preference

    20% gave second to candidate B so they get 20 votes added (20% of the 100 surplus)

    33% gave second to candidate C so they get 33 votes added

    And so on


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