Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

Polar101 · 09-02-2020 07:19PM

Coppinger said on TV she'll benefit hugely from the Donnelly transfers. Hopefully she isn't right, but I think she might be. There was a similar situation in the local elections, and that one went to the Greens.

LorelaiG · 09-02-2020 07:26PM

StoptheClocks wrote: »

An even bigger surprise than Donnelly topping the poll is Peter Casey getting 495.
Did he even step foot in the constituency during the campaign? Who is voting for him? Are they spoiling their vote?

A big crowd from that house the Irish first gang were voting him number 1 as far as I know.

Zaph · 09-02-2020 07:27PM

StoptheClocks wrote: »

An even bigger surprise than Donnelly topping the poll is Peter Casey getting 495.
Did he even step foot in the constituency during the campaign? Who is voting for him? Are they spoiling their vote?

It's almost embarrassing to be living somewhere where nearly 500 people would vote for that dickhead.

KGLady · 09-02-2020 07:42PM

Count 2 currently being announced, Donnelly surplus about to shake things up... Joe.ie saying has Leo missed out on Count 2 :eek:

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1226576088463216641

Update:

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1226577462064226304?s=20

Wow less transfers than Racist Casey

Gaspode · 09-02-2020 07:43PM

Normally you'd be sanctioned for name-calling but since it's Casey.....

KGLady · 09-02-2020 07:51PM

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1n9wfF6dKeL9QlwKaEWb5Ds_VAY577HBjmsso0ObMj5A/htmlview

So, Coppinger did pick up the bulk of the transfers after all. Will be gutted if O'Gorman ends up missing out yet again.

Zaph · 09-02-2020 07:53PM

Gaspode wrote: »

Normally you'd be sanctioned for name-calling but since it's Casey.....

Yeah, sorry about that, although at least I didn't call him what I was originally thinking of. :pac:

Hurrache · 09-02-2020 07:54PM

Polar101 wrote: »

Coppinger said on TV she'll benefit hugely from the Donnelly transfers. Hopefully she isn't right, but I think she might be. There was a similar situation in the local elections, and that one went to the Greens.

****, unfortunately she seems to be, she put about 1,000 votes into O'Gorman.

thomasj · 09-02-2020 07:58PM

That's true but a few big transfers to come with Burton and Currie and if Varadkar and Chambers is elected before then , then O'Gorman stands a good chance.

Hurrache · 09-02-2020 08:00PM

Is there another constituency like this in terms of socioeconomic and political extremes?

Zaph · 09-02-2020 08:01PM

thomasj wrote: »

That's true but a few big transfers to come with Burton and Currie and if Varadkar and Chambers is elected before then , then O'Gorman stands a good chance.

I think Roderic will benefit most from those transfers, but if Leo and Chambers just about make it across the line there won't be much to distribute.

thomasj · 09-02-2020 08:04PM

Zaph wrote: »

I think Roderic will benefit most from those transfers, but if Leo and Chambers just about make it across the line there won't be much to distribute.

Oh yeah but if they're elected by the time Burton's and/or Curries votes are to be distributed then there should be more transfers there for O'Gorman hopefully

I'd say Varadkar will be elected on this count.

KGLady · 09-02-2020 08:08PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Is there another constituency like this in terms of socioeconomic and political extremes?

Interesting question, and one I'm gonna start trying to figure out for myself now! The RTE overview on their constituency results page paints it quite starkly:

Lie of the land:
Dublin West is effectively three constituencies rolled into one – from the more middle-class areas around Castleknock - across the canal to largely working-class areas such as Mulhuddart and Corduff – to the huge Celtic Tiger developments at Ongar on the Dublin-Meath border.
Parts of the constituency saw the biggest population increases in the country at the most recent Census – with Dublin West now taking in 121,897 people.
There are no changes to the boundaries in this socially diverse constituency.

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national/dublin-west

StoptheClocks · 09-02-2020 09:01PM

Ruth nearly 1000 ahead on the 3rd count.

Ruth - 6430
O'Gorman - 5471

ArmaniJeanss · 09-02-2020 09:08PM

The remaining eliminations should favour Roderic overall, but 1000 is a lot to make up.
1250 from the Soc Dems next up, followed by 1500ish from Aontu, then FG2 and finally Joan.

RoryMac · 09-02-2020 09:27PM

Leo still not over the line after 3rd count!

Polar101 · 09-02-2020 09:37PM

Leo still 20 short after 4th count.

Coppinger 6,808
O'Gorman 5,919

Seems like a fairly big gap.

Edit: Chambers 7,385

Coppinger not that far behind Chambers actually.

Hurrache · 09-02-2020 09:45PM

Polar101 wrote: »

Leo still 20 short after 4th count.

Who's have put any sort of money on that pre election.

thomasj · 09-02-2020 10:07PM

https://twitter.com/davitter/status/1226609143877861376?s=19

ArmaniJeanss · 09-02-2020 10:15PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Is there another constituency like this in terms of socioeconomic and political extremes?

Dublin Bay North has to be a candidate for this. Includes Coolock/Darndale on it's west, Clontarf on the east and Howth peninsula in the north.

thomasj · 09-02-2020 10:17PM

Leo's been elected on count 5

KGLady · 09-02-2020 10:23PM

From RTE : Emer Currie (FG) and Joan Burton (Lab) eliminated. The sixth count will be the last.

JC: 7836
RC: 6991
RoG: 6270

Squeeky bum time!

ArmaniJeanss · 09-02-2020 10:32PM

You'd have to think far too many will go to Jack Chambers on this count for the Green to have a chance.
Roderic O'Gorman really needed it to be a straight head to head against Ruth Coppinger when Currie and Burton were being eliminated. But Jack has unperformed without ever being in danger.

angel eyes 2012 · 09-02-2020 10:33PM

KGLady wrote: »

From RTE : Emer Currie (FG) and Joan Burton (Lab) eliminated. The sixth count will be the last.

JC: 7836
RC: 6991
RoG: 6270

Squeeky bum time!

Any chance JC will be eliminated?

Hurrache · 09-02-2020 10:39PM

angel eyes 2012 wrote: »

Any chance JC will be eliminated?

Not really with those numbers.

thomasj · 09-02-2020 10:41PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

You'd have to think far too many will go to Jack Chambers on this count for the Green to have a chance.
Roderic O'Gorman really needed it to be a straight head to head against Ruth Coppinger when Currie and Burton were being eliminated. But Jack has unperformed without ever being in danger.

What happens the surplus if he exceeds the quota?

ArmaniJeanss · 09-02-2020 10:45PM

thomasj wrote: »

What happens the surplus if he exceeds the quota?

I assume if the surplus is bigger than the gap between RC and RoG that they would then distribute it as count 7.

Though an earlier poster said count 6 was the final count - not sure if they were getting that from an official source or someone just misinterpreting the situation.

Zaph · 09-02-2020 10:47PM

There are only 2 seats and 3 candidates left, so this has to be the last count as there's nobody else left to eliminate after it.

StoptheClocks · 09-02-2020 10:49PM

angel eyes 2012 wrote: »

Any chance JC will be eliminated?

No, My understanding is that Emer Currie's 2nd Preferences will go to Leo and he's already elected. So the 3 left won't pick up many votes there. It will be Joan Burtons that will decide the last seat. It doesn't look like the last 2 seats will meet the quota so it will be whoever is ahead. There is no way they could both overtake JC

ArmaniJeanss · 09-02-2020 10:50PM

Zaph wrote: »

There are only 2 seats and 3 candidates left, so this has to be the last count as there's nobody else left to eliminate after it.

But there is potentially a surplus to distribute.
Say Chambers gets 300 above the quota in this count, and RoG reduces the gap vis a vis Coppinger to 250.
Surely they have to distribute the surplus rather than just declaring RC elected?

Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

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