Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

Hurrache · 07-02-2020 11:39PM

She has new fliers out with her whinging that her seat may be at risk with Joe Higgins photoshopped into the pic with her, but with no reference to him in the text. Bizzare.

LoonyLovegood · 08-02-2020 12:05PM

She had someone driving around Laurel Lodge and Carpenterstown last night with a loudspeaker on top of the car, yelling to vote for Ruth for women...I'm a woman and it's just pushing her further down my list.

Nijmegen · 08-02-2020 08:55PM

It’s pretty telling that they can’t arrive at a better argument than that. No real accomplishments beyond the whinging.

With the Shinners up where they are now that path for left wing votes through Mulhuddart is very very small.

Codpeas · 09-02-2020 11:07AM

Weepsie wrote: »

Anyone know if there are rules about posters on railings and in estates?

Loads of SF posters in the estates around huntstown, and some tied up at the railings right outside the school.

Chambers had some in some road signage too, directly underneath the sign which I thought would be a Nono

For anything you don't think is right, regardless of candidate - take pictures and report it.

ongarite · 09-02-2020 12:10PM

Based on early tallies from RTE, Donnolly going to top the poll.
Coppinger and Burton could both lose their seats.

Hurrache · 09-02-2020 12:17PM

ongarite wrote: »

Based on early tallies from RTE, Donnolly going to top the poll.
Coppinger and Burton could both lose their seats.

I'd take that with a pinch of salt, only a small percentage tallied and the boxes from the tally don't include any of the west of the constituency

StoptheClocks · 09-02-2020 12:45PM

That tally has been updated and FG have conceded that Paul Donnelly will top the poll. He has 25% of the boxes opened. The first count is expected at 3.30pm

thomasj · 09-02-2020 12:45PM

85% complete now according to FG online . Based on projected quota, Donnelly will be elected on 1st count, Varadkar should be close enough to it , if not elected on the 1st count and Chambers 3rd.

The 4th seat is expected to be a dogfight between Coppinger and O'Gorman. Donnellys surplus might sway in one direction but there's still 4 Castleknock boxes to be opened alongside Corduff.

Zaph · 09-02-2020 01:20PM

Roderic has a slight lead over Coppinger after the tallies have been completed. The one fear I'd have is that she'll benefit more from Donnelly's surplus than him, and there won't be much to distribute from Leo or Chambers if they creep in over the line. Roderic could end up relying on transfers from Burton and Currie, but I'm not sure if it'll be enough for him.

StoptheClocks · 09-02-2020 01:37PM

Taken from here https://twitter.com/RTEdublinWEST
* Corrected the mistake on the % of Ruth and Gorman

100% Tally

Turnout 57% (42,375)
Predicted quota 8,475

Donnelly SF 28% 11,838
Varadkar FG 20% 8,321
Chambers FF 16% 6,758
O’Gorman Grn 11% 4,826
Coppinger SOL-PBP 10%
4,242
Burton Lab 4% 2,058

RoryMac · 09-02-2020 01:40PM

StoptheClocks wrote: »

Taken from here https://twitter.com/RTEdublinWEST

100% Tally

Turnout 57% (42,375)
Predicted quota 8,475

Donnelly SF 28% 11,838
Varadkar FG 20% 8,321
Chambers FF 16% 6,758
Coppinger SOL-PBP 12%
4,242
O’Gorman Grn 8% 4,826
Burton Lab 4% 2,058

They made a mistake on the percentage for O'Gorman, he's slightly ahead of Coppinger in what looks like a seat that will go right to the wire

StoptheClocks · 09-02-2020 01:46PM

I corrected the %. I can't believe I have reposted a mistake. I hear by resign from commenting on tallies.

Larbre34 · 09-02-2020 02:17PM

RoryMac wrote: »

They made a mistake on the percentage for O'Gorman, he's slightly ahead of Coppinger in what looks like a seat that will go right to the wire

I just cannot make up my mind. O'Gorman will benefit from both Varadkar and Chambers but Donnelly will transfer almost universally to Coppinger.

RoryMac · 09-02-2020 02:30PM

Larbre34 wrote: »

I just cannot make up my mind. O'Gorman will benefit from both Varadkar and Chambers but Donnelly will transfer almost universally to Coppinger.

Yeah Coppinger will probably have a decent lead after the surplus of Donnelly's votes are distributed but O'Gorman will slowly claw it back. Read some people saying they don't expect a large transfer from Donnelly to Coppinger but don't know the reasoning on that

ArmaniJeanss · 09-02-2020 02:39PM

RoryMac wrote: »

Yeah Coppinger will probably have a decent lead after the surplus of Donnelly's votes are distributed but O'Gorman will slowly claw it back. Read some people saying they don't expect a large transfer from Donnelly to Coppinger but don't know the reasoning on that

I think there huge antipathy between the candidates and their teams alright going back to previous campaigns, but that's not a reason for his votes not to transfer to her.
Transfers are rarely as clear-cut as people think though, she'll get around 33% I'd say but plenty will go elsewhere (SF->FF has correlation, SF->Green is plausible),keeping it tight.

Hurrache · 09-02-2020 02:41PM

RoryMac wrote: »

Read some people saying they don't expect a large transfer from Donnelly to Coppinger but don't know the reasoning on that

There's a large dose of acrimony between the two, they don't want people giving preferences to the other.

Caranica · 09-02-2020 02:44PM

Think Roderic will be very transfer friendly, Coppinger less so. Keeping my fingers crossed for him

Hurrache · 09-02-2020 03:38PM

I think it's a pretty poor line up, it's like your either on the left, or not. Very little for most people to give more than 2 or 3 preferences.

StoptheClocks · 09-02-2020 03:48PM

Weepsie wrote: »

Turnouts down near 10% in Dublin west from 2016. Given it was being reported as a strong turnout around the place, this is surprising.

General antipathy towards incumbents? So rather than voting for or against, just staying out of it altogether?

I wonder would the election being on the Saturday have effected that. The weather in the afternoon wasn't great either.

Caranica · 09-02-2020 04:32PM

My polling station was very busy. I'm usually the only person there

Larbre34 · 09-02-2020 04:44PM

StoptheClocks wrote: »

I wonder would the election being on the Saturday have effected that. The weather in the afternoon wasn't great either.

Nah. I worked a polling station in South Dublin yesterday. The pattern of voter attendance changed over a weekday election, with a quiet early morning, a mental 11-2, then quiet during the rugby and a steady stream thereafter till about 8pm, then dead. After all that though, turnout was roughly the same as 2016.

Larbre34 · 09-02-2020 04:47PM

Hurrache wrote: »

There's a large dose of acrimony between the two, they don't want people giving preferences to the other.

Good point. I wasn't really considering that for Donnelly to do SO well, they've have to paint Coppinger as the villain, reducing the likelihood of transfers.

I'm also hoping for ROG to do well.

TheValeyard · 09-02-2020 04:54PM

StoptheClocks wrote: »

Taken from here https://twitter.com/RTEdublinWEST
* Corrected the mistake on the % of Ruth and Gorman

100% Tally

Turnout 57% (42,375)
Predicted quota 8,475

Donnelly SF 28% 11,838
Varadkar FG 20% 8,321
Chambers FF 16% 6,758
O’Gorman Grn 11% 4,826
Coppinger SOL-PBP 10%
4,242
Burton Lab 4% 2,058

Love to see O'Gorman get in instead of Coppinger.

RoryMac · 09-02-2020 05:03PM

TheValeyard wrote: »

Love to see O'Gorman get in instead of Coppinger.

Hopefully good news for O'Gorman

https://twitter.com/RTEdublinWEST/status/1226536077126774785?s=19

Hurrache · 09-02-2020 05:10PM

Donnelly himself said they're going to one or the other.

Murt10 · 09-02-2020 05:16PM

Larbre34 wrote: »

I just cannot make up my mind. O'Gorman will benefit from both Varadkar and Chambers but Donnelly will transfer almost universally to Coppinger.

Wouldn't be so sure about Donnelly's transfers. Coppinger lost any potential transfer vote for me the way she kept banging on and on about women's issues and the women's vote. Maybe didn't realise that she was alienating 1/2 her potential electorate with those very strongly projected amtagonistic views. Perhaps there wasn't a man in her camp with the balls to tell her to quieten down, that she was damaging her prospects.

The Greens on the other hand should be transfer friendly from both sexes. I don't think Roderick succeeded or tried to alienate anyone.

Hurrache · 09-02-2020 06:06PM

Fingers crossed for O'Gorman anyway. 6th attempt for Donnelly.

StoptheClocks · 09-02-2020 06:06PM

You can see the first count of votes here

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national/dublin-west

It's safe to say that no one predicted Donnelly topping the vote. The boards poll was way off.

ArmaniJeanss · 09-02-2020 06:53PM

The big sets of transferable votes are Donnellys surplus of 3.7K, then roughly 1000 from the Soc Dems, 1200 from Aontu, 2000 from FG2 and 2400 from Labour.

('m going to assume that Leo is over the line by the time FG2 votes are spread, so her transfers will bypass Leo)

Ruth v Roderic in transfers.
I'd expect RC to do better from Donnelly.
Also think she will do better from Aontu but by a smaller margin.
But RoG will surely do better from Soc Dems, FG2 and Labour.

I'd definitely prefer to be in RoG's position with a 600 lead now.

StoptheClocks · 09-02-2020 07:12PM

An even bigger surprise than Donnelly topping the poll is Peter Casey getting 495.
Did he even step foot in the constituency during the campaign? Who is voting for him? Are they spoiling their vote?

Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

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