General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

Banner2theend · 04-02-2020 09:31AM

L1011 wrote: »

The Indo is no longer owned by O'Brien, it's s Belgian conglomerate now

But Mr O'Brien is still the largest individual shareholder in independent news and media. Headlines like what the nation will wake up this morning 're Indo clearly shows that there is a extremely strong right-wing influence in the running of this fox news style tabloid.

seamus · 04-02-2020 09:33AM

sid waddell wrote: »

FG tend to underperform their polls, not overperform. That doesn't mean they will this time, but they did at the last two elections anyway.

FG will land in and around where they've been polling, they generally have done for the last few years. SF won't because their vote is so heavily biased toward the younger end.

And young people don't turn up to vote. Across the world, every election you hear, "The young people are really energised this time, they'll be out in force". And then nothing. They just don't turn up in any greater numbers.

I think Murphy is hopelessly out of his depth but I don't hate him. I think Harris is a decent guy and he was the minister who fronted the campaign that ended the barbaric 8th Amendment. He did the state and the women of Ireland some service there anyway.

Harris and Murphy are both at or just below my age, and I think hubris got the better of them. They were put forward for their briefs because they would be more open to taking direction from the Taoiseach while also taking the flak for entire thing. And their eagerness to get ahead in their careers meant they didn't see the obvious dangers waiting for them.

Harris hasn't done anything wrong, really. He's certainly been a better minister for health than many of his predecessors. The Children's Hospital project was started way before he was even elected, the money was spent, and overspent and the plans changed and changed again, before he even took office.
He just happens to be the guy sitting in the seat who has to reveal the whole mess to the country, and he has taken all the ire for it. The way some people go on you would swear he gave women cervical cancer and came up with the whole children's hospital project on his own.

I think Murphy's put himself in real trouble. His PR has been a bit of a mess, and he's come across as being a "may way or the highway" kind of minister at a time when the housing brief needed someone who was more about compassion and understanding than cold facts and shrugging shoulders.

FrancieBrady · 04-02-2020 09:36AM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Before Saturday?

I'd love it to happen today before the debate!

I don't know when it will happen, but I think it will before FF and FG cosy up.

I can see FG playing hard to get to try and force it tbh.

It's what I would do were I in FG tbh.

Bullocks · 04-02-2020 09:41AM

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

She isnt exactly taking the campaign seriously

https://www.midlands103.com/news/midlands-news/general-election-candidate-goes-on-pre-planned-holiday-a-week-out-from-polling/

How in hell did she not cancel until after the election , she could have holidays anytime she wants if she got in

FrancieBrady · 04-02-2020 09:43AM

seamus wrote: »

FG will land in and around where they've been polling, they generally have done for the last few years. SF won't because their vote is so heavily biased toward the younger end.

And young people don't turn up to vote. Across the world, every election you hear, "The young people are really energised this time, they'll be out in force". And then nothing. They just don't turn up in any greater numbers.

I take you point about turnout.
FG if anything have finished below their polling figures (they were as high as 31% in a few polls last time and finished on 25%) in the last two elections. 3 of the last 5 polls had them on 30%. If that were to happen this time they would finish somewhere between 15 and 20%, closer to 15 imo.

L1011 · 04-02-2020 09:56AM

Banner2theend wrote: »

But Mr O'Brien is still the largest individual shareholder in independent news and media. Headlines like what the nation will wake up this morning 're Indo clearly shows that there is a extremely strong right-wing influence in the running of this fox news style tabloid.

No, he isn't. He has completely sold out of it

I'm amazed how many people managed to completely miss the largest media story of the drvadey

average_runner · 04-02-2020 09:58AM

SF blew their load last night. Mary Lou was clueless, no idea about finances and then passes it off as not her area. Sorry but you are the leader of the party.

Bishop of hope · 04-02-2020 10:21AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'd love it to happen today before the debate!

I don't know when it will happen, but I think it will before FF and FG cosy up.

I can see FG playing hard to get to try and force it tbh.

It's what I would do were I in FG tbh.

I get that, and there will be a week or more for considerations like that as the postponement in Tipp will mean final figures and possible mixings probably can't be finalised until that happens.
Personally I'm fed up looking at and listening to him and if there was a fresh leader there I would consider them more myself.

loyatemu · 04-02-2020 10:22AM

Did Leo avoid calling an election before Xmas purely so he wouldn't end up the shortest-serving Taoiseach? He only overtook Bruton in December.

Chips Lovell · 04-02-2020 10:36AM

What's fascinating about the polls isnot so much the rise of Sinn Fein but how quickly it happened. My best guess is that we were all trundling along until the election was called and people decided that they didn't want Fine Gael back. Within a few days, came the realisation that voting Fine Gael out could mean Fianna Fail getting back in and people didn't want that either so the only other realistic alternative to them seemed to be Sinn Fein, since they're they're the only party of any size who is untainted by the realities of being in government.

However, more depressingly, it could also be partly down to the fact that in an election campaign absolutely festooned with unrealistic manifestos, Sinn Fein's is the most unrealistic of them all. Which shows we've learned nothing from the crash.

If the polls hold up, what happens post-election is going to be very interesting indeed, because everyone's degree of movement is somewhat constrained.

Sinn Fein have self-limited the gains they made by only running 42 candidates. In fairness to them, they had no way of knowing there'd be a surge.
Varadkar has ruled out coalition with Sinn Fein.
Martin has ruled out coalition with Sinn Fein and Fine Gael.
Neither Varadkar or Martin will want a second election because they'll fear Sinn Fein winning more.

Of the three party leaders, Martin is the one who has done the most to paint himself into a corner, because he knows that his election is his last chance. If he doesn't get into power after this one, he's gone as Fianna Fail leader.

At the moment, it looks like whatever happens, someone is going to be eating their words.

loyatemu · 04-02-2020 10:41AM

FF propped up by FG in a reversal of the previous arrangement seems the obvious option based on the poll numbers and their general enmity towards SF, but frankly if I was the FG leader I would prefer to go into opposition and rebuild.

Another FF/FG arrangement would pretty much guarantee a SF-led government next time around.

FrancieBrady · 04-02-2020 10:50AM

loyatemu wrote: »

FF propped up by FG in a reversal of the previous arrangement seems the obvious option based on the poll numbers and their general enmity towards SF, but frankly if I was the FG leader I would prefer to go into opposition and rebuild.

Another FF/FG arrangement would pretty much guarantee a SF-led government next time around.

Unless that government was successful which is unlikely.

Last night's poll showed 32% don't want FG to lead, or be in, government and 23% don't want FF.
A failure of a government made up of the 2 would, as you say, usher in more profound change.

FG will be wary about entering government if they have any long term plan.

LuckyLloyd · 04-02-2020 11:09AM

Confidence and supply won’t get it done on current numbers. They’ll likely need an actual coalition arrangement to lock out SF. The type of minority partnership needed this time will have too many parties and be untenable.

easypazz · 04-02-2020 11:14AM

If FG lose a heap of seats, and FF and SF each gain a heap of seats, as is being predicted, then the people are clearly saying they want FG out and they want a FF/SF coalition.

This must be respected. FG would be mad to go into a confidence and supply on the back of a hiding.

The last time out FF did it on the back of a good performance.

loyatemu · 04-02-2020 11:20AM

easypazz wrote: »

The last time out FF did it on the back of a good performance.

FF did it as penance for their past misdemeanors, "for the good of the country" etc and to make their brand less toxic. I can't see FG feeling any such compulsion if it doesn't suit their longer term aspirations.

robman60 · 04-02-2020 11:23AM

Banner2theend wrote: »

But Mr O'Brien is still the largest individual shareholder in independent news and media. Headlines like what the nation will wake up this morning 're Indo clearly shows that there is a extremely strong right-wing influence in the running of this fox news style tabloid.

It's more a FG tabloid than specifically a right wing one. I believe there was a hit piece on Lucinda Creighton designed to benefit Kate O'Connell in 2016 which had its desired impact.

tmabr · 04-02-2020 11:31AM

Banner2theend wrote: »

The indo in full out attack mode on SF this morning. Please please don't feed this horrible right wing troll. The DOB owned media are using horrible nasty attacks, Trump style to discredit and humiliate their opponents. Shame on the Indo gutter journalism at its lowest.

Was always going to happen, indo love ffg. Disgraceful propaganda by them, similar to RTE. Absolute horror of a headline - murder - IRA - Struggle to explain finance and of course full article available where it is usually subscribe.

Luckily most people are wakening up to lies and control - it appears that the more they attack sinn fein the more desperate and worried they look and the more people want to vote for everyone except ff fg lab.

The tactics remind me of the dirty tricks used by previous governments and reminds me how much we need change.

GET them out

easypazz · 04-02-2020 11:45AM

loyatemu wrote: »

FF did it as penance for their past misdemeanors, "for the good of the country" etc and to make their brand less toxic. I can't see FG feeling any such compulsion if it doesn't suit their longer term aspirations.

I think FG will quietly accept defeat, rebuild and bide their time.

Nobody can fix all the issues, and the promises this year of houses, nurses, guards, free everything, solve everything will come back to haunt FF/SF.

Chips Lovell · 04-02-2020 11:55AM

loyatemu wrote: »

FF propped up by FG in a reversal of the previous arrangement seems the obvious option based on the poll numbers and their general enmity towards SF, but frankly if I was the FG leader I would prefer to go into opposition and rebuild.

Another FF/FG arrangement would pretty much guarantee a SF-led government next time around.

This is it. Fianna Fail's greatest fear (and to a lesser extent Fine Gael's) is being supplanted by Sinn Fein as the one of the two big parties. Making them the main opposition party is a sure fire way of bringing that about.

The other trend to throw into the mix is that Sinn Fein are very much the Marmite of Irish politics, currently simultaneously the most popular party and the least liked. When asked who people don't want to see in government, Sinn Fein came out on top, with 36 percent.

Anyone thinking of doing a deal with them will be mindful of that, wary that they get it in the neck from their own voters.

average_runner · 04-02-2020 11:55AM

tmabr wrote: »

Was always going to happen, indo love ffg. Disgraceful propaganda by them, similar to RTE. Absolute horror of a headline - murder - IRA - Struggle to explain finance and of course full article available where it is usually subscribe.

Luckily most people are wakening up to lies and control - it appears that the more they attack sinn fein the more desperate and worried they look and the more people want to vote for everyone except ff fg lab.

The tactics remind me of the dirty tricks used by previous governments and reminds me how much we need change.

GET them out

Did SF explain the finances for implementing their policies last night ? I was looking at it and Mary Lou was lost.

One of SF senior candidates called to my door and failed to explain how his party will implement their policies without tax increases ?

sid waddell · 04-02-2020 11:57AM

Chips Lovell wrote: »

What's fascinating about the polls isnot so much the rise of Sinn Fein but how quickly it happened. My best guess is that we were all trundling along until the election was called and people decided that they didn't want Fine Gael back. Within a few days, came the realisation that voting Fine Gael out could mean Fianna Fail getting back in and people didn't want that either so the only other realistic alternative to them seemed to be Sinn Fein, since they're they're the only party of any size who is untainted by the realities of being in government.

However, more depressingly, it could also be partly down to the fact that in an election campaign absolutely festooned with unrealistic manifestos, Sinn Fein's is the most unrealistic of them all. Which shows we've learned nothing from the crash.

If the polls hold up, what happens post-election is going to be very interesting indeed, because everyone's degree of movement is somewhat constrained.
Sinn Fein have self-limited the gains they made by only running 42 candidates. In fairness to them, they had no way of knowing there'd be a surge.

Varadkar has ruled out coalition with Sinn Fein.

Martin has ruled out coalition with Sinn Fein and Fine Gael.

Neither Varadkar or Martin will want a second election because they'll fear Sinn Fein winning more.

Of the three party leaders, Martin is the one who has done the most to paint himself into a corner, because he knows that his election is his last chance. If he doesn't get into power after this one, he's gone as Fianna Fail leader.

At the moment, it looks like whatever happens, someone is going to be eating their words.

That's pretty much it. But also, SF won't want to go into coalition with FF because they fear a Labour 2016 situation next time.

So you have both FG and SF desperate to stay out.

It seems to me we could be looking at a situation where FF end up with about 55 seats and FG and SF both end up with somewhere in the 30-35 seat range.

So then, do Fianna Fail start looking at the Greens, Social Democrats, Labour, and then the Healy Raes, Fitzmaurice, Grealish, Mattie McGrath, Lowry, Boxer Moran etc.? It might be just about doable on the maths but would be a recipe for instability.

easypazz · 04-02-2020 12:02PM

sid waddell wrote: »

That's pretty much it. But also, SF won't want to go into coalition with FF because they fear a Labour 2016 situation next time.

So you have both FG and SF desperate to stay out.

It seems to me we could be looking at a situation where FF end up with about 55 seats and FG and SF both end up with somewhere in the 30-35 seat range.

So then, do Fianna Fail start looking at the Greens, Social Democrats, Labour, and then the Healy Raes, Fitzmaurice, Grealish, Mattie McGrath, Lowry, Boxer Moran etc.? It might be just about doable on the maths but would be a recipe for instability.

Will they get that many based on the most recent opinion poll?

One thing for sure this time is transfers are going to scatter everywhere.

And don't forget tonight's debate is now box office.

A double team FF/FG takedown attempt of MLMD is on the cards.

Normally people have decided at this stage where they will vote but I think tonight could be different.

facehugger99 · 04-02-2020 12:06PM

I think these recent polls may motivate a lot of ABSF's (Anyone But SF) to turn out on Saturday.

There are a lot of deeply disillusioned PAYE workers who are tired of FF and FG but who still don't want SF anywhere near the levers of power.

is_that_so · 04-02-2020 12:06PM

sid waddell wrote: »

That's pretty much it. But also, SF won't want to go into coalition with FF because they fear a Labour 2016 situation next time.

So you have both FG and SF desperate to stay out.

It seems to me we could be looking at a situation where FF end up with about 55 seats and FG and SF both end up with somewhere in the 30-35 seat range.

So then, do Fianna Fail start looking at the Greens, Social Democrats, Labour, and then the Healy Raes, Fitzmaurice, Grealish, Mattie McGrath, Lowry, Boxer Moran etc.? It might be just about doable on the maths but would be a recipe for instability.

I don't think FG are desperate to stay out and if asked or required would step up to replace FF as the mudguard. FF doing deals with other parties deal first would encourage them although FG would try to push back hard. I think we may be looking at a relatively shortlived Dail. If the numbers can be assembled a year would be a pretty good run.

Naggdefy · 04-02-2020 12:20PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

I think these recent polls may motivate a lot of ABSF's (Anyone But SF) to turn out on Saturday.

There are a lot of deeply disillusioned PAYE workers who are tired of FF and FG but who still don't want SF anywhere near the levers of power.

No doubt it will be the GAA fraternity who will save Ireland from SF and fans of the garrison game, from lower socio-economic backgrounds, will try and put SF into power.

ThunbergsAreGo · 04-02-2020 12:40PM

sid waddell wrote: »

That's pretty much it. But also, SF won't want to go into coalition with FF because they fear a Labour 2016 situation next time.

So you have both FG and SF desperate to stay out.

You would assume FG have a stronger case for staying out given the public would have rejected them post their time in office based on actual performance? Them staying in opposition is definitely the clever move

easypazz · 04-02-2020 01:02PM

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

You would assume FG have a stronger case for staying out given the public would have rejected them post their time in office based on actual performance? Them staying in opposition is definitely the clever move

Exactly, the people, are dictating that they want FG out and FF / SF in.

FF will have no choice but to respect this, and I can't wait to see Martin have to work with SF.

Chips Lovell · 04-02-2020 01:05PM

I can't see it happening. Everything he's said over the past few weeks will make it impossible and I think on a personal level he won't do it either. If it comes down to it, I think he'd resign as leader rather than do a deal with them.

Sir Oxman · 04-02-2020 01:09PM

loyatemu wrote: »

Did Leo avoid calling an election before Xmas purely so he wouldn't end up the shortest-serving Taoiseach? He only overtook Bruton in December.

Would not surprise me at all.

johnnyskeleton · 04-02-2020 01:15PM

easypazz wrote: »

If FG lose a heap of seats, and FF and SF each gain a heap of seats, as is being predicted, then the people are clearly saying they want FG out and they want a FF/SF coalition.

This must be respected. FG would be mad to go into a confidence and supply on the back of a hiding.

The last time out FF did it on the back of a good performance.

It's not about gains its about overall makeup. Even if FG have a bad day and SF have a good day, as polls predict, it is still unlikely that SF will have more seats than FG. It's more art than science, I know, but there are a few things:

A) As Seamus says above a lot of the SF surge is younger people who tend not to vote;

A lot of the SF vote is based in the border counties, Dublin, Cork and Kerry. They will probably get far more than a quota in a lot of constituencies where they are only running one candidate e.g. Sligo-Leitrim, Dublin Central and Dublin South Central.
C) SF are generally considered to be less transfer friendly than the other parties. So the elimination of a Labour, Soc Dem or Green candidate will likely transfer to FF or FG rather than to SF.
D) SF only have 42 candidates.

Secondly, even if SF are the largest party, it is open to all the other parties to band together. This happened with the rainbow coalition where FF had more seats than anyone else but no one wanted to go into power with them. SF ruled out being the minority partner in a coaltion. FF have ruled out a coalition with SF, but people don't entirely believe them.

Don't get me wrong, I think there is a very real chance of a FF/SF government. But it doesn't follow that they have to do so. FF may ultimately be left to make the decision between FG and SF.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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