General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

is_that_so wrote: »

About as simple as saying support for X is uniform or that an opinion poll vote is right and will hold up. It's not.

I've said based on these figures. SF got 14% in 2016. If they get around 22 to 25%, they are going to win more seats.

Anyway, we'll see next week.

Depending on how tomorrow night pans out, I think we might start to hear more talk of a Grand Coalition.

I think so yes

I can't imagine a SF-lead left alliance would last a fortnight

is_that_so wrote: »

I can't help feeling there is a woman issue at work in this. It also seems to suggest that if a party doesn't have enough female members the selection just reflects that. Sounds like a gentleman's club. In theory parties don't have to bother with quotas but they will get no State funding if they don't.


That just says that they can't be prevented from being Dail members and it really works both ways. Nobody is precluded anyway as the selection process in parties presents them for election. Parties have rules and that's what the quotas focus on. These parties recognise the overall aim of the quotas, which is addressing the gender imbalance in politics.

You are resorting to a jesuitical argument. "You are free to out up as many candidates of a gender as you like, but if we don't like it we will discriminate against you where taxpayer's money is concerned." As Henry Ford said, you can have any colour you like provided it's black. You are effectively resorting to the Putin school of democracy i.e. anybody can offer themselves for election in Russia, but if you do not have official approval you will not have access to radio, tv etc.
There is nothing preventing a female from joining a party or offering herself for election. Women in Iceland who thought women were under-represented in parliament formed a women's party. They did not ask the Icelandic government to engage in discrimination.
It is impossible to address the veiled "woman issue" accusation if you are not prepared to say exactly what your accusation is.
You are muddying the waters by talking about party rules. Parties can have any rules. But their rules should not affect their ability to connect with the public. This is not Russia.

L1011 wrote: »

There is a consistent thing of Leinster sans Dublin being hugely SF in all these polls. Fed up commuter vote surely?

SF aren't big on commuter solutions

is_that_so wrote: »

FF + would be the likeliest starting point. Grand coalition suits Leo but Martin wants the ball all to himself and is having none of it.

he can't actually think that though, so he has to be open to coalition with someone, be it FG or SF

hotmail.com wrote: »

I addressed that point.

If these figures are correct, they will surpass the quota on the first or second count in 4 or 5 seat constituencies as they are only running one candidate in most of them.

It's fairly simple.

That will be part of SF`s problem on possibly having the largest vote, but not being the largest party



On these figures they will be leaving seats behind them in 4 and 5 seat constituencies by only running 42 candidates.

Seems hard to find what the actual priorities of each of the parties are. The manifestos are extremely long and rambling, and you kind of have to assume 90% of it at least will be forgotten the day after the election.

Is there any way of knowing at least which parties are currently supporting a rent freeze or further rent control? I don't want to support any party that intends to implement disaterous policies like these that will exacerbate our current housing shortage.

I see the Green Party are at supporting a site value tax, which is at least a policy that would help reduce the inefficient use of land and probably help alleviate the current issues with housing shortages, but I can't find any other party supporting it.

hotmail.com wrote: »

Meath West will elect a Sinn Fein candidate, no doubt about it. Toibin may also get elected at the expense of Damien English. Commuter/urban county. Even Dublin Bay South will give a SF TD based on those figures.

It doesn't matter how bad the candidates are - if the tide is with the party, they will pick up seats everywhere. The same happened with Labour in 2011 and a bunch of nobodys got elected.

Dublin Bay South doesn’t have an SF candidate though. It’s got a third generation Fianna Fail (and I mean fail not Fáil) who rebadged himself. Grandfather, father, uncle, cousin and himself were all FF TDs!

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If every candidate currently filling the appropriate number of seats in each constituency according to Paddy Power was elected, the Dáil would end up as follows:

FF 58
FG 37
SF 28
Ind 16
Green 8
Lab 6
Soc Dems 5
Sol/PBP 1
Aontú 1

This sounds about right, unless something dramatic happens over the next week.

One would think FF should be doing alot better tbh.
Will the SF surge last?

The only government you can form there is a FF/SF government and there will be HUGE presaure on MM to do the unthinkable.
Other than that a FF/Labour/SD/Green and some Indos may get over the line but not very stable at all.

I dont think FG will at all be interested in a minority confidence and supply arrangement. There is nothing it it for them. They can take a few years out, rebuild and be the main opposition party to a potential FF/SF government.

They promised the earth moon and stars and their new found voters will be dissapointed.

From the Irish Times/MRBI poll earlier tonight

It was also a good poll for Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald personally, as she jumped to a 41% approval rating, leading Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin who were both on 30%.

Last November Leo was on 49% voter approval and now he is down to 30%, that is quite the crash. Mary Lou is now outstripping both Varadkar and Michael Martin considerably on 41% which is quite the rise from her too, iirc she was around 32% in November.

Many of Leos cabinet wanted Leo to call the election for November but he refused. At the time he had good poll ratings for himself (49%) and Fine Gael were regularly around 30% in the polls.

Fast forward 10 weeks and his approval rating has crashed and Fine Gael are now polling in third place. Its fast looking like Leo and FG made a massive miscalculation in the timing of this election, they had an opportunity to hold it at the same time as the UK when they were doing well in the polls and people felt they did a good job on Brexit. Eaten bread is soon forgotten as they say and now Brexit isnt even an election issue for the electorate. Leo had the political advantage over other parties of when to call the election but its now looking like he ballsed it up.

markodaly wrote: »

This sounds about right, unless something dramatic happens over the next week.

One would think FF should be doing alot better tbh.
Will the SF surge last?

The only government you can form there is a FF/SF government and there will be HUGE presaure on MM to do the unthinkable.
Other than that a FF/Labour/SD/Green and some Indos may get over the line but not very stable at all.

I dont think FG will at all be interested in a minority confidence and supply arrangement. There is nothing it it for them. They can take a few years out, rebuild and be the main opposition party to a potential FF/SF government.

They promised the earth moon and stars and their new found voters will be dissapointed.

Fantastic chance for someone within FF to become Taoiseach for someone if Martin doesn't play ball with SF.

I note Fianna Fail are keeping Eamon O'Cuiv away from all the microphones lately...

Banner2theend wrote: »

The indo in full out attack mode on SF this morning. Please please don't feed this horrible right wing troll. The DOB owned media are using horrible nasty attacks, Trump style to discredit and humiliate their opponents. Shame on the Indo gutter journalism at its lowest.

The Indo is no longer owned by O'Brien, it's s Belgian conglomerate now

Godot. wrote: »

Fantastic chance for someone within FF to become Taoiseach for someone if Martin doesn't play ball with SF.

I note Fianna Fail are keeping Eamon O'Cuiv away from all the microphones lately...

There are those in FF who are allowing Michael the space (some cynics would say 'enough rope' ) to see if he can bring them power.
He is failing to put space between FF and the rest when they should (FF will feel) be streaking ahead by 6 or 7 points at least.

I'm waiting for somebody to step out of the line.

markodaly wrote: »

This sounds about right, unless something dramatic happens over the next week.

One would think FF should be doing alot better tbh.
Will the SF surge last?

The only government you can form there is a FF/SF government and there will be HUGE presaure on MM to do the unthinkable.
Other than that a FF/Labour/SD/Green and some Indos may get over the line but not very stable at all.

I dont think FG will at all be interested in a minority confidence and supply arrangement. There is nothing it it for them. They can take a few years out, rebuild and be the main opposition party to a potential FF/SF government.

They promised the earth moon and stars and their new found voters will be dissapointed.

It sounds like you want it to sound.
RTE did a comparative thing yesterday and they had SF getting virtually all their candidates elected if the current polls hold up.