new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Yurt2 · 04-02-2020 06:30AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

China is in the process of being isolated from the rest of the world because no one believes them. They don't believe the origin, they don't believe the numbers and they certainly don't believe the CCP politburo propaganda.

This is far worse than the CCP allows the world to know.

In fairness you can understand it - their survival depends on internal belief.

If they can protect Beijing and Shanghai from the worst of the epidemic then they live (severely weakened) to go on and that's the game now for the CCP. Do what they can inland but protect the coastal cities at all cost.

Agreed. Was watching a video of the 'new hospital' by a worker on the site. It's a place to die in quarantine, not a place to recover.

ceadaoin. · 04-02-2020 06:37AM

Macau have ordered all their casinos to be shut for 2 weeks. Considering gaming makes up 70% of their economy that's huge. They had also began temperature scanning staff and guests back at the beginning of January over fears about the "unknown kind of pneumonia" from Wuhan. Interesting. That's a lot earlier than it became known to the rest of the world. Here is an article from then

https://www.casino.org/news/macau-casinos-to-install-body-scanners-as-pneumonia-fears-grow/

I cant imagine if all the casinos here in Vegas closed. If that happens ****s definitely serious and we're probably all dying.

Kermit.de.frog · 04-02-2020 06:41AM

Yurt! wrote: »

Agreed. Was watching a video of the 'new hospital' by a worker on the site. It's a place to die in quarantine, not a place to recover.

I wouldn't go that far. They are evidently trying their very best.

It's that nobody believes them. That the problem is far more severe and out of control than the rest of the world knows.

That is principally why countries are taking actions that many think are over the top.

Smiles35 · 04-02-2020 07:22AM

Yurt! wrote: »

Agreed. Was watching a video of the 'new hospital' by a worker on the site. It's a place to die in quarantine, not a place to recover.

I wouldn't go that far either. Could be of genuine use a place like that. I came home a few months ago to me folks with a bug. I didn't want to pass it on to them. But what could I do really. I had nowhere to go at the drop of a hat. Hope your neighbors are playing ok with you spiritually there.

joseywhales · 04-02-2020 07:26AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Chinese Communist Party and their leader is looking mighty weak

They just don't get it, by controlling media, by instituting totalitarian control, you erode any trust. What appears like strength is a great weakness when trust is required. Now noone will voluntarily present for treatment because they have created a culture of fear and distrust, this is why authoritarianism in any form without consent will always fail the people. I don't think this will be contained. they should go back to military parades and revisionism.

joseywhales · 04-02-2020 07:34AM

I would not mistake the WHO support of China as an endorsement, they are essentially forced to support, it's our best hope, to contain it there and criticising their administration is not a way to influence them to improve.

In fairness I think the underfunded WHO is doing well, they need to call more attention to 3rd world asian and african countries, where it will spread exponentially.

Graces7 · 04-02-2020 08:07AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I wouldn't go that far. They are evidently trying their very best.

It's that nobody believes them. That the problem is far more severe and out of control than the rest of the world knows.

That is principally why countries are taking actions that many think are over the top.[/QUOTE]

I honestly do not think any precautions are over the top in a situation like this. We live in a world where travel is easy and efficient so the danger of a rapid spread is very real.

Are folk here worried? Taking precautions? My remoteness and isolation out here are safe, and I keep good stocks of food in anyways as we can be cut off in bad weather..

04-02-2020 08:40AM

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/south-asia/kerala-declares-coronavirus-state-calamity-to-intensify-efforts-to-contain-virus-in

Some 2,239 Indians have returned to Kerala from Wuhan, of whom 2,155 have been quarantined at home and 84 admitted to isolation wards in hospitals.

04-02-2020 08:42AM

Now does anyone know of this is a reliable website, its in Chinese I think but chrome auto translates. Take with a grain of salt if it's not verifiable but if it is then this Is certainly no normal head cold

China is now threatening those ‘spreading rumors’ about the virus with the death penalty.
http://www.bjnews.com.cn/news/2020/02/03/683860.html
“To crack down on virus-related “crimes”, the People’s Supreme Court in Heilongjang province issued a notice to warn the public that spreading rumors about the virus could receive death penalty on the grounds of “endangering public security”, and those found guilty of making “subversive” or exaggerated comments could receive 15 years.

Edit : Just adding that it seems to be legit but I'd like a second opinion or third or fourth because this is crazy

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Beijing_News

joseywhales · 04-02-2020 08:46AM

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/south-asia/kerala-declares-coronavirus-state-calamity-to-intensify-efforts-to-contain-virus-in

Some 2,239 Indians have returned to Kerala from Wuhan, of whom 2,155 have been quarantined at home and 84 admitted to isolation wards in hospitals.

I am 3 hours from Kerala, there are people with leprosy here, how long before it spreads do you think?

Here until the end of the month.....

04-02-2020 08:48AM

joseywhales wrote: »

I am 3 hours from Kerala, there are people with leprosy here, how long before it spreads do you think?

Here until the end of the month.....

Look at the numbers for individual Chinese cities and see how long it took to go from a number comparable to Kerala to a number you're not comfortable to go near an airport etc.

joseywhales · 04-02-2020 09:01AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Look at the numbers for individual Chinese cities and see how long it took to go from a number comparable to Kerala to a number you're not comfortable to go near an airport etc.

Spouse is working in a major hospital here also, I am actually not so concerned about contracting this virus as I am about the measures that could be imposed on those infected or even those potentially infected. I've never been sick in my life. Maybe that's hubris.

I do not want to be trapped so far away or spread to vulnerable people.

I will wait and see for another week.

04-02-2020 09:07AM

SA = South Australia in this case not South Africa
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/real-estate-agency-closed-after-confirmed-sa-coronavirus-victims-attended-firle-house-auction/news-story/437540c6ad432abc0dddeb4e4fabc1dd
SA coronavirus victims’ phones taken by SA Police and SA Health to identify their movements since landing
It is known the Chinese couple attended an auction at 4 Pam St Firle at 6.30pm the following day and authorities are contacting up to 30 people who were at the event, while auctioneer Ray White Real Estate at Dulwich has temporarily closed as a precaution.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-04/real-estate-firm-says-coronavirus-victims-attended-auction/11927622

a few days earlier:

South Australia's chief public health officer Nicola Spurrier said they believed no one else in the state had been exposed to the pair.

"All of the right procedures were undertaken so we're not concerned about spread during that time and they have self-isolated in their home awaiting the results of the test," Dr Spurrier said.

"I can reassure people that we do not think there has been any contact with anybody else in the state," she said.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-01/coronavirus-confirmed-in-south-australia-and-victoria/11920754

basically they landed in australia and the very next day were bidding at an auction, did a couple of days sightseeing then got sick and pretended that they had self isolated the whole time.

People cannot be trusted to self isolate. Not when the stakes are so high.

04-02-2020 09:18AM

Ok, I guess those numbers in Kerala make sense now. People were very concerned when they declared an emergency over three infections.

s7ryf3925pivug · 04-02-2020 09:19AM

joseywhales wrote: »

Spouse is working in a major hospital here also, I am actually not so concerned about contracting this virus as I am about the measures that could be imposed on those infected or even those potentially infected. I've never been sick in my life. Maybe that's hubris.

I do not want to be trapped so far away or spread to vulnerable people.

I will wait and see for another week.

Infectious disease. About 40% of known end results have been death so far. Thousands still infected. I'd be more concerned with a failure or inability to isolate its spread here by imposing such measures.

Any such measures would be a lot lighter here than in China because people just wouldn't accept them. It's like wearing masks in public. That was the general advice given to stop the spread of flu in the 30s or so. People in the east adopted it. People in the west saw it as an attack on their civil liberties. Wear a mask in public in a western country and people will laugh at you.

04-02-2020 09:27AM

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

About 40% of known end results have been death so far.

That's one of those technically correct stats that I doubt is anywhere close to reality. It's designed to sound scary. When they're at testing capacity, new sick people are going to be tested to see if they have it, not healed people to check that they don't.

car_radio19834 · 04-02-2020 09:28AM

So a lot of Chinese companies I believe last week said they were closing for an extra 2 weeks or so. That was when the infection numbers were about 10k or whatever.

But I don't think the figures will be below 10k by 2 weeks time so is it likely this period of closures will be extended?

gozunda · 04-02-2020 09:42AM

It has been estimated that 25 per cent of patients infected with the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV have severe symptoms.

"About 25% of them have very serious disease, requiring relatively intensive or really intensive care," said the director of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/nih-dr-anthony-fauci-25percent-of-china-coronavirus-cases-very-serious.html

The current figures of 20,438 confirmed cases in China and an estimated 75,000 - 100,000 believed infected appears to indicate that approx. only 1 in 4 cases as being confimed.

Is it that people are not reporting to hospitals/ staying at home or that the medical system there not able to confirm diagnosis or some combinations of such factors?

laurah591 · 04-02-2020 09:58AM

From the FT.
Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority on Tuesday confirmed the death of a 39-year-old man who suffered from an underlying health condition, marking the second fatality from the outbreak outside mainland China. He had returned to the territory on January 23 following a trip to Wuhan, the central Chinese city at the centre of the outbreak. His infection was confirmed on January 31.

The unnamed man did not visit any of Wuhan’s healthcare facilities or wet markets and had no exposure to wild animals during the virus’s incubation period, the hospital authority added. He had been in a stable condition before his health deteriorated suddenly and he suffered a cardiac arrest.

..........
From an unverified source the man was suffering from diabetes. For anyone who knows... would Cardiac Arrest be normal for respiratory type ilness? Only 2nd death outside China.

Also, number of cases outside China remains very low ...do we think that China's efforts to contain this are having an impact?

Somedaythefire · 04-02-2020 09:59AM

gozunda wrote: »

It has been estimated that 25 per cent of patients infected with the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV have severe symptoms.

"About 25% of them have very serious disease, requiring relatively intensive or really intensive care," said the director of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/nih-dr-anthony-fauci-25percent-of-china-coronavirus-cases-very-serious.html

The current figures of 20,438 confirmed cases in China and a estimated 75,000 - 100,000 believed infected appears to indicate that approx. only 1 in 4 cases as being confimed.

Is it that people are not reporting to hospitals/ staying at home or that the medical system there not able to confirm diagnosis or some combinations of such factors?

Probably a lot of people that have very mild symptoms.

04-02-2020 10:05AM

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Second link says 730 recovered which is an improvement

OMM 0000 · 04-02-2020 10:13AM

car_radio19834 wrote: »

So a lot of Chinese companies I believe last week said they were closing for an extra 2 weeks or so. That was when the infection numbers were about 10k or whatever.

But I don't think the figures will be below 10k by 2 weeks time so is it likely this period of closures will be extended?

I don't think they have a choice. If they don't extend the date, then the infection cases will just continue to grow, probably more rapidly.

China have really shot themselves in the foot here. By allowing disgusting hygiene practices - practices the West stopped decades ago - they've allowed this virus to jump to humans and spread.

04-02-2020 10:16AM

gozunda wrote: »

It has been estimated that 25 per cent of patients infected with the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV have severe symptoms.

"About 25% of them have very serious disease, requiring relatively intensive or really intensive care," said the director of the NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/nih-dr-anthony-fauci-25percent-of-china-coronavirus-cases-very-serious.html

The current figures of 20,438 confirmed cases in China and a estimated 75,000 - 100,000 believed infected appears to indicate that approx. only 1 in 4 cases as being confimed.

Is it that people are not reporting to hospitals/ staying at home or that the medical system there not able to confirm diagnosis or some combinations of such factors?

Good news. It's closer to 1 in 16 develop serious issues then if you put those stats together.

Of course people who don't feel like they're dying are going to stay at home away from the hospitals.. Even people in Ireland are spreading fake news that the hospital just built in Wuhan is a just a concentration camp, a place to lock them away and let them die.

wakka12 · 04-02-2020 10:32AM

Latest death reports make it look increasingly likely this is no more dangerous than the flu. The death rate outside Hubei remains at just 0.3%. Though in the city of Wuhan it is very high, sitting almost at SARS level, 5.5%, with a 25% severe complication rate. Anything over 2% is considered very high for a pandemic and a huge global health emergency.

gozunda · 04-02-2020 10:36AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Good news. It's closer to 1 in 16 develop serious issues then if you put those stats together.Of course people who don't feel like they're dying are going to stay at home away from the hospitals.. Even people in Ireland are spreading fake news that the hospital just built in Wuhan is a just a concentration camp, a place to lock them away and let them die.

I dont know that you can put those stats together tbh. Too easy to add 2+2 and get 57

The 25% severe cases estimate is reported here
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/nih-dr-anthony-fauci-25percent-of-china-coronavirus-cases-very-serious.html

The difference in confirmed and reported apparently is being put down to possible
"time lag between infection and symptom onset, delays in infected persons getting medical treatment, and the time needed to confirm cases with lab tests "could all affect overall recording and reporting,"

Kermit.de.frog · 04-02-2020 10:39AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Latest death reports make it look increasingly likely this is no more dangerous than the flu. The death rate outside Hubei remains at just 0.3%. Though in the city of Wuhan it is very high, sitting almost at SARS level, 5.5%, with a 25% severe complication rate.

You believe the CCP?

The rest of the world does not which is why China itself is being quarantined.

It is not because of 400 odd deaths.

It's because they are full of sh!t explaining it.

That's the truth.

It is FAR more serious than the CCP wants the world to know. But we know.

car_radio19834 · 04-02-2020 10:39AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Latest death reports make it look increasingly likely this is no more dangerous than the flu. The death rate outside Hubei remains at just 0.3%. Though in the city of Wuhan it is very high, sitting almost at SARS level, 5.5%, with a 25% severe complication rate.

Looking at it in purely just death terms wouldn't be right.

04-02-2020 10:46AM

gozunda wrote: »

I dont know that you can put those stats together tbh. Too easy to add 2+2 and get 57

The 25% severe cases estimate comes from here
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/nih-dr-anthony-fauci-25percent-of-china-coronavirus-cases-very-serious.html

The difference in confirmed and reported apparently is being put down to possible
"time lag between infection and symptom onset, delays in infected persons getting medical treatment, and the time needed to confirm cases with lab tests "could all affect overall recording and reporting,"

If you don't put the numbers together, then there are something like 18,000 to 25,000 people in China in very serious condition requiring intensive medical care, but 75% of them are unreported or choosing to stay at home and die.

If you put them together, 5,000 people out of 20,000 are in serious condition, and another 55,000 to 80,000 are either unreported or are staying at home.

Pick whichever one you want to believe. It makes not a single iota of difference to me.

circadian · 04-02-2020 10:46AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Latest death reports make it look increasingly likely this is no more dangerous than the flu. The death rate outside Hubei remains at just 0.3%. Though in the city of Wuhan it is very high, sitting almost at SARS level, 5.5%, with a 25% severe complication rate.

I'd say a large reason why the death rate outside of Hubei isn't as high is because health services, at the moment, aren't under the same kind of stress and have the capacity to treat the majority of their severe cases.

Make no mistake, if this virus becomes a full blown pandemic with a runaway effect the mortality rate will be higher purely on the basis of health infrastructure being crippled by serious cases.

Kerala, probably the most developed Indian state has declared an emergency. I worry about other Indian states that do not have the same quality of medical resources, this could get a lot worse there.

Once again, it comes back to our own healthcare system. We have the expertise and technology to deal with this virus, but not on any large scale. If the authorities are not taking this as serious, which appears to be the case (we don't really know what's going on) then they are inviting a crisis that will cause another deep recession not to mention deaths that could have been avoided had some tough decisions been made early on.

I hope I'm wrong, but at the minute this looks like something that could get out of hand quickly due to the rate of spread and the fact that possibly up to 25% of those infected suffer from severe complications.

wakka12 · 04-02-2020 10:47AM

4 new h2h transmissions in Singapore
Also 4 local thai people have been infected

64 people in Hong Kong have been hospitalised with what is suspected to be ncov, the first death of a patient has also occurred in Hong Kong
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-spore-reports-first-cases-of-local-transmission-4-out-of-6-new-cases-did-not
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/04/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-outbreak-death-toll-latest-news-update

Also I read an interesting thread on reddit that kind of put the scale of the threat into perspective. Hubei is the same population as Italy, imagine Italy had almost 15,000 people infected with a new virus and over 400 deaths in a few weeks? And600,700,800 more cases were now occurring in Spain, France, Switzerland, Croatia etc since then. And 20/25 cases in further afield areas like Ireland, Uk, norway. But because such a large area is all just called 'China' it doesnt feel like its a threat that has really spread over a large area, but it has. If the situation was like that in Europe youd say it was a disaster on our hands!

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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