General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

FrancieBrady · 03-02-2020 09:58AM

olestoepoke wrote: »

If RTE go ahead and have a so called "leaders debate" with only FF and FG there should be a public outcry no matter which party you support. How can it be a leaders debate and exclude Sinn Fein?

There has been a public outcry, and just like the one over the RIC, RTE seem to be setting the ground to capitulate to it.

They'll either expand the debate at 11am or cancel it altogether.

LeinsterDub · 03-02-2020 09:59AM

olestoepoke wrote: »

If RTE go ahead and have a so called "leaders debate" with only FF and FG there should be a public outcry no matter which party you support. How can it be a leaders debate and exclude Sinn Fein?

The simple fact is SF aren't running enough candidates to lead the country barring a left alliance. I do still think she should be included.

03-02-2020 10:41AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The simple fact is SF aren't running enough candidates to lead the country barring a left alliance. I do still think she should be included.

I think that she should be included too.

Snow Garden · 03-02-2020 10:50AM

L1011 wrote: »

She is a terrible debater and I imagine knows it.

That's not true at all. Mary Lou was superb in the Repeal the 8th debates. She made the 'polished' Iona crew look like complete idiots.

scrumqueen · 03-02-2020 11:02AM

Acosta wrote: »

I am going to give them a vote for the first time but I wasn't that impressed with her performance in the debates. If Doherty was their leader and they were running more candidates the outcome after Saturday could possibly be huge for them and the country.

When GA was leader all I heard was "if he wasn't their leader" now he's gone its "oh if she wasn't their leader" :rolleyes: its always going to be something!

For Forks Sake · 03-02-2020 11:02AM

olestoepoke wrote: »

If RTE go ahead and have a so called "leaders debate" with only FF and FG there should be a public outcry no matter which party you support. How can it be a leaders debate and exclude Sinn Fein?

Only 42 candidates. No possibility of MLMcD being Taoiseach. 9.5% in the most recent elections (2019 locals) ?

/devils advocate.

L1011 · 03-02-2020 11:17AM

Snow Garden wrote: »

That's not true at all. Mary Lou was superb in the Repeal the 8th debates. She made the 'polished' Iona crew look like complete idiots.

You're not setting the bar very high there!

tobsey · 03-02-2020 11:49AM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Leo calling out a lot of FF TD's as backwoods men today, letting his rural bias slip a little, sure there's no backwoods men in FG.
He or some of his colleagues put their big foot and mouth in it everyday it seems.
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/taoiseach-wants-to-lead-fg-even-if-party-loses-election-and-says-ff-has-a-lot-of-backwoodsmen-38919005.html

Leo is 100% correct. He didn’t say FF TDs, he said people in FF. Also it was the journalist that said the term backwoodsman describes rural dwellers as uncouth or backward. Leo was calling out the fact that FF members voted against supporting the 8th amendment referendum. Michael Martin and the leadership went against their own members because they knew it would cost them public support.

It’s another example of FF being absolute chancers. They’ll say whatever they think will resonate best with the public, not what they actually believe in.

Every piece of socially progressive legislation has been brought in under FG. Fair enough they were usually proposed by Labour but FG backed the proposals as the leading party in government. FF are absolutely backward and it would be a backward step for the country if they are leading government after this election.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 11:54AM

tobsey wrote: »

Leo is 100% correct. He didn’t say FF TDs, he said people in FF. Also it was the journalist that said the term backwoodsman describes rural dwellers as uncouth or backward. Leo was calling out the fact that FF members voted against supporting the 8th amendment referendum. Michael Martin and the leadership went against their own members because they knew it would cost them public support.

It’s another example of FF being absolute chancers. They’ll say whatever they think will resonate best with the public, not what they actually believe in.

Every piece of socially progressive legislation has been brought in under FG. Fair enough they were usually proposed by Labour but FG backed the proposals as the leading party in government. FF are absolutely backward and it would be a backward step for the country if they are leading government after this election.

Despite the right wing sobriquet FG still has a socially left wing, from the Just Society day of the 1960s and would often side with Labour on social issues. It's one of the reasons why they can work together.

CrabRevolution · 03-02-2020 12:02PM

For those of you who can read the native tongue:

https://tuairisc.ie/toghchan-2020-failte-den-chuid-is-mo-roimh-eilimh-faoin-ngaeilge-ach-doicheall-roimh-aire-sinsearach/

It seems SF just listen to demands from every single group in Ireland and promise to fulfil them. In this case Conradh na Gaeilge presented their pre-election requests to every party before the election. One of these is for the next government to have a senior Minister solely for the Gaeltacht. SF were the only party to promise they'd do this.

Even as a Gaeilgeoir I find this a ridiculous notion. Much like every county reckons they're owed a minister, the idea that every sub section of voters (that may only be a small % of the population) deserves its own representation by a minister is absurd.

For Forks Sake · 03-02-2020 12:04PM

sid waddell wrote: »

It's one of their obvious pick up targets. SF only just missed out to Labour's Willie Penrose last time and he isn't running this time.

SF got 13.7% nationally last time. I'd say if any sort of surge materialises, and it doesn't have to be up to 24%, but even 16/17%, it's a very likely gain for them.

Not a chance, Paul Hogan was the longtime SF candidate, based in Athlone.

HE subsequently quit politics in 2017 https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/i-was-subjected-to-vile-allegations-and-kangaroo-court-ex-sinn-fein-mayor-35869105.html

SF vote across both counties in the locals last year was only around the 5% mark (way below the national 9.3).

03-02-2020 12:46PM

Just got this from SF candidate
“The recovery was not used to deliver for you. You have less money in your pocket and your bills have gone up”. Am Az Ing.
Furthermore, they will increase my income, cut my bills, build homes and reduce my rent.

WOW. Didn’t say how they were going to work this miracle!

Geuze · 03-02-2020 12:52PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Is there any candidates that want this?

SF, for a start?

I don't hear of any candidates wanting to move to rapid deportations for failed AS, do you?

I don't hear any candidates supporting faster processing of AS claims?

Darc19 · 03-02-2020 01:07PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Apologies if this is the wrong thread, but some controversial remarks by a canvasser for Richard Bruton:

https://twitter.com/ClareOC_/status/1224020616443060226

You may not like it, but it's what the figures will show you.

Some are on it to scam the house they want in the area they want. A large proportion are people who recently got refugee status. And a good lot are from a certain ethnic Irish minority.

The problem is that they are not allowed to break down the figures, but if they did, then all those "look after our own" racist types would need hospitalisation with the shock.

loyatemu · 03-02-2020 01:09PM

RTE poll of polls:

001386a6-614.jpg?ratio=1.78

SF getting every one of their candidates in seems unlikely, but either way on those figures it's FF/SF, FF/FG or some very shaky coalition of FF, the soft-left parties and a rag-tag bunch of independents which probably wouldn't get past the first budget. Can't see FG propping up FF either, they'd much rather sit in opposition to a FF/SF government.

Water John · 03-02-2020 01:19PM

That result would be quite a shock. FF/SF with a rotating Taoisech anyone?

sid waddell · 03-02-2020 01:21PM

beggars_bush wrote: »

SF have a terrible candidate and really don't have representation in the county council.

SF's candidate is a councillor.

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Not a chance, Paul Hogan was the longtime SF candidate, based in Athlone.

HE subsequently quit politics in 2017 https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/i-was-subjected-to-vile-allegations-and-kangaroo-court-ex-sinn-fein-mayor-35869105.html

SF vote across both counties in the locals last year was only around the 5% mark (way below the national 9.3).

Local elections are not General elections and the ground has shifted a lot since then anyway.

The vast majority of people don't follow politics on a day to day basis and have had no contact with a TD or councillor in the last four years. I do follow politics and even I couldn't tell you off the top of my head who my local councillors are.

People involved in politics at a local level or who follow it on a day to day basis especially at local level are often the worst people to predict what's going to happen. All politics isn't local, there are usually big national swings involved.

The key to predicting is in trying to work out where the line between local votes and national swings lies.

SF are bouncing big time, and if they came within a whisker of taking a seat in LD-WH with 13.7% of the national vote in 2016, anything from 16-17% of the national vote up should comfortably see them over the line this time.

pixelburp · 03-02-2020 01:29PM

Still fascinated at how badly Labour has collapsed since the last coalition. IMO they need some new blood and fast, as this election looks to be another underwhelming result for them and I see a lot of grey heads on posters around the city. Brendan Howlin seems a non presence in the media. Is there even a chance the party could simply cease to be altogether?

osarusan · 03-02-2020 01:31PM

I'm on the Clare Limerick border.

1 TD in Limerick, Maurice Quinlivan, who is not that popular on this side of the city really. He's odds on to get reelected.
Local elections saw them go from 6 down to 2 councillors.

Clare has never had a SF TD, and has one councillor (who replaced the only elected SF councillor Mike McKee when he died last November).
They have a candidate in the election, Violet-Anne Wynne, but she got 4.2% of the vote in the Kilrush LEA so don't expect much from her.

charlie14 · 03-02-2020 01:32PM

pixelburp wrote: »

Still fascinated at how badly Labour has collapsed since the last coalition. IMO they need some new blood and fast, as this election looks to be another underwhelming result for them and I see a lot of grey heads on posters around the city. Brendan Howlin seems a non presence in the media. Is there even a chance the party could simply cease to be altogether?

They more or less did when they were taken over by the Democratic Left wing.

mammychicken · 03-02-2020 01:35PM

I would be very reluctant to believe the current poll predictions, rural Ireland is so predictable when it comes to voting in general elections, I'd be amazed if the real results reflect the current polls

An Ciarraioch · 03-02-2020 01:41PM

pixelburp wrote: »

Still fascinated at how badly Labour has collapsed since the last coalition. IMO they need some new blood and fast, as this election looks to be another underwhelming result for them and I see a lot of grey heads on posters around the city. Brendan Howlin seems a non presence in the media. Is there even a chance the party could simply cease to be altogether?

There will be a merger with the Soc Dems before the end of the year, unless the latter actually make gains on Saturday.

seamus · 03-02-2020 01:53PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

If SF get above 20% I'd be shocked.

That said they will do well enough.

I'm predicting
FF 27%
FG 24%
SF 18%

Me hole will be Taoiseach for few years with a FF Green minority and FG confidence any supply.

This seems likely, though I'd take 1% off both FG & FF and give it to SF.

SF always underperform at the ballot box (or overperform in polls). Every pre-election poll for the last 10/15 years has gotten SF supporters excited, and then disappointed on the day. The last two local elections saw SF fall dismally short of their predicted outcome.

I wonder is it because they're always voting "intention" polls, and thus the strong intention of young voters doesn't come to fruition on the day.

FF, by the opposite consequence have tended to overperform at the ballot box because of their strong support amongst older cohorts. The polls don't usually take this into account.

pixelburp · 03-02-2020 01:55PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

There will be a merger with the Soc Dems before the end of the year, unless the latter actually make gains on Saturday.

I was thinking the same, the two parties seem to be struggling to make an impact, and whatever else they are, I've noticed the SD candidates to be noticeably young, and younger than Labours crop.

LuckyLloyd · 03-02-2020 02:01PM

To be fair, SF supporters are as cautious about current polling as anyone. We’ve been here before many times. What I think it is becoming reasonably safe to say is that - barring very strange turn of events this week - SF will improve decently on their performance in 2016. That’s an excellent outcome I’d say.

LuckyLloyd · 03-02-2020 02:05PM

pixelburp wrote: »

Still fascinated at how badly Labour has collapsed since the last coalition. IMO they need some new blood and fast, as this election looks to be another underwhelming result for them and I see a lot of grey heads on posters around the city. Brendan Howlin seems a non presence in the media. Is there even a chance the party could simply cease to be altogether?

They don’t stand for anything unique on the political landscape and people know that whatever they say they stand for will be mostly jettisoned so they can get into a coalition, any coalition with anyone. So why would you rationally bother voting for them?

Somebody might say that Labour are pragmatic and you need to get into power to enact some of your policies, blah blah. But if I vote for Labour, which policies are the ones they’ll push for as part of a coalition deal? Which ones will they renege on and likely do the opposite of?

I think a merger as the smaller part of the Social Democrats is long past due. Time to wind it up.

endainoz · 03-02-2020 02:09PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

To be fair, SF supporters are as cautious about current polling as anyone. We’ve been here before many times. What I think it is becoming reasonably safe to say is that - barring very strange turn of events this week - SF will improve decently on their performance in 2016. That’s an excellent outcome I’d say.

I've heard the narrative of "SF only perform well at the polls, never translates to votes. All their supporters are waster, etc etc"

But I've also heard that this is the highest they have consistently polled before, so the next few days will tell a lot. RTEs anti Sinn Fein bias is staggering. I had never really noticed it before. But it does look like they will have to make a U-turn and allow Mary Lou on the debate.

The one question remains: if she does perform well, have we reached the ceiling of Sinn Fein support or will it go even higher?

LuckyLloyd · 03-02-2020 02:14PM

Whatever happens this week, the polling trends for SF are positive and fit with the long term strategy they’ve always believed in. The IRA stuff is not working on under 35’s and we’re moving towards the place we would always eventually reach, where SF need to be tackled fairly and above board on policy matters alone.

And then it becomes “change vs more of the same”, which is a very healthy conversation for us to have.

loyatemu · 03-02-2020 02:16PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I think a merger as the smaller part of the Social Democrats is long past due. Time to wind it up.

Labour are the political wing of the trade union movement and that won't change.
The SDs understandably want to be able stand on a social democratic ticket without the baggage of having the unions on board. The problem Labour have is many (most?) younger voters aren't in a union and see them as irrelevant.

scrumqueen · 03-02-2020 02:27PM

pixelburp wrote: »

I was thinking the same, the two parties seem to be struggling to make an impact, and whatever else they are, I've noticed the SD candidates to be noticeably young, and younger than Labours crop.

SD's have a large cohort of members that were formerly in the Labour party and left for one reason or another, so a merger if it ever got as far as a members vote, wouldn't pass.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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