General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

An Ciarraioch · 02-02-2020 10:23PM

Why would they want to inflate SF, though, unless you believe it's a double bluff to boost FG?

satguy · 02-02-2020 10:27PM

If this thread is about "predictions"

Here is mine.

If RTE exclude Mary Lou from thier party leaders debate on TV. If and when SF are in power, they will and should extract revenge.

RTE only doing news / current affairs,, and the licence fee at about €40 a year.

FrancieBrady · 02-02-2020 10:29PM

satguy wrote: »

If this thread is about "predictions"

Here is mine.

If RTE exclude Mary Lou from thier party leaders debate on TV. If and when SF are in power, they will and should extract revenge.

RTE only doing news / current affairs,, and the licence fee at about €40 a year.

I see RTE are meeting at 11am in the morning about the issue. Can see a climbdown coming.
It can't really be justified unless you start from the postition that the election was a forgone conclusion before it was even called.

Brussels Sprout · 02-02-2020 10:34PM

antimatterx wrote: »

I think FG actually some fantastic female candidates Catherine Noone, Emer currie, Emer Higgins

This aged well

Leonard Hofstadter · 02-02-2020 10:40PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I see RTE are meeting at 11am in the morning about the issue. Can see a climbdown coming.
It can't really be justified unless you start from the postition that the election was a forgone conclusion before it was even called.

I believe FF and FG want her to be included now. They think excluding her will allow SF to claim victim status and get more people to vote for them.

ninebeanrows · 02-02-2020 10:46PM

If SF get above 20% I'd be shocked.

That said they will do well enough.

I'm predicting
FF 27%
FG 24%
SF 18%

Me hole will be Taoiseach for few years with a FF Green minority and FG confidence any supply.

Spanish Eyes · 02-02-2020 10:52PM

Wonder if anything will really change for any of us, no matter the result.

Squeezed Middle will still be squeezed.

Commuters will still be in bits.

Foreva home folk will still be "entitled".

Plus ca change.

Bishop of hope · 02-02-2020 10:59PM

Leo calling out a lot of FF TD's as backwoods men today, letting his rural bias slip a little, sure there's no backwoods men in FG.
He or some of his colleagues put their big foot and mouth in it everyday it seems.
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/taoiseach-wants-to-lead-fg-even-if-party-loses-election-and-says-ff-has-a-lot-of-backwoodsmen-38919005.html

Water John · 02-02-2020 11:02PM

There are problems to be sorted out here, but compared to many UK deprived areas coupled to a Govn't who don't give a sh1te, I'd take my chances here.

hotmail.com · 02-02-2020 11:12PM

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

I believe FF and FG want her to be included now. They think excluding her will allow SF to claim victim status and get more people to vote for them.

Perhaps it's time for SF to enter government here, make them part of the establishment. There is no way they can make good on their promises.

And then they'll lose half their seats at the next election.

Brussels Sprout · 02-02-2020 11:30PM

Prediction: If SF don't form part of this government or enter into a confidence & supply agreement then they will be the largest party in 5 years time.

Geuze · 02-02-2020 11:37PM

jackboy wrote: »

Leo Varadkar. He was bashing immigration from Georgia.

Discussing the illegal immigration of bogus asylum-seekers is not "bashing" - it is discussing a trend.

It is normal to discuss dealing with bogus AS, and closing DP centres, and deporting the bogus AS fast.

Most people agree about this.

So it is normal to expect some candidates to reflect these normal opinions.

It is also normal to have restrictions on non-EU immigration, and to want to make sure the restrictions are respected.

Again, nothing odd / unusual / "bashing" about this.

And to be for restrictions on non-EU immigration is not bad / anti-immigrant, etc.

hotmail.com · 02-02-2020 11:56PM

Most of the main political parties want to continue Direct Provision. So I suppose they fit this criteria.

beggars_bush · 03-02-2020 12:00AM

sid waddell wrote: »

It's one of their obvious pick up targets. SF only just missed out to Labour's Willie Penrose last time and he isn't running this time.

SF got 13.7% nationally last time. I'd say if any sort of surge materialises, and it doesn't have to be up to 24%, but even 16/17%, it's a very likely gain for them.

SF have a terrible candidate and really don't have representation in the county council.

Geuze · 03-02-2020 12:16AM

I must start a thread about candidates who want:

bogus AS to be allowed to stay
more non-EU immigrants
sanctuary for bogus AS
open borders

These extremists should be named and listed.

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 12:34AM

Geuze wrote: »

I must start a thread about candidates who want:

bogus AS to be allowed to stay
more non-EU immigrants
sanctuary for bogus AS
open borders

These extremists should be named and listed.

Is there any candidates that want this?

Brussels Sprout · 03-02-2020 01:00AM

Thisonedone wrote: »

Seems the surge in support for SF surprised even them. But still, why didn’t they stand more candidates? What is the disadvantage of standing more candidates? Surely funds weren’t an issue in the decision?

The downside of running too many candidates is that if you don't have enough votes they can get in each others way and allow other candidates get in between them. A good example of this was in 2016 when SF ran 3 candidates in Donegal, including 2 sitting TDs and ended up only winning 1 seat

SF based their number of candidates on the fact that they had a pretty terrible local elections last May. It seems that they were running numbers in order to hold on to their 23 existing seats (including covering for their many retirements)

Picking the number of candidates is tricky enough (every party makes mistakes in some constituencies in every election)

votecounts · 03-02-2020 01:34AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1223263129964109825

Reilly did not get the memo, puts farrell in the spotlight again:)

KevRossi · 03-02-2020 01:44AM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Prediction: If SF don't form part of this government or enter into a confidence & supply agreement then they will be the largest party in 5 years time.

Risky strategy. Sit on the sidelines for another Dail term and snipe away.

Not sure it will work...
1. at some stage they will reach their natural maximum of voters, not even SF know where that is.
2. If you want your policies implemented then you need to get into power
3. Housing and Health need to be fixed, SF say they have the answers so not sure the electorate will tolerate them sitting the next term out. Then we have no idea how long the next Dail will last and they could be at a doldrum in the polls then.

Their main aim, especially that of the NI crew in unification. I don't think the RoI or NI is that far that they will vote for it in the next couple of years. Allow the negative side of Brexit to bed in, in NI for 5 years and then go for it would be my suggestion.

03-02-2020 02:24AM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Prediction: If SF don't form part of this government or enter into a confidence & supply agreement then they will be the largest party in 5 years time.

The old saying is "a week is a long time in politics". Five years is an eternity.

It depends what they consider to be good for the country (getting into gov.) or good for the party (steering clear of difficult decisions).

FrancieBrady · 03-02-2020 09:17AM

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

The old saying is "a week is a long time in politics". Five years is an eternity.

Most certainly is.

Anything, literally anything, could happen this week.
Still not convinced FF have surpassed FG. Or that SF figures are that high.

L1011 · 03-02-2020 09:33AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I see RTE are meeting at 11am in the morning about the issue. Can see a climbdown coming.
It can't really be justified unless you start from the postition that the election was a forgone conclusion before it was even called.

The thing is that she performs appallingly in debates. It benefits SF for her to be excluded and to get the press coverage of complaining about that exclusion

Rigor Mortis · 03-02-2020 09:35AM

L1011 wrote: »

The thing is that she performs appallingly in debates. It benefits SF for her to be excluded and to get the press coverage of complaining about that exclusion

I dont think i have seen any analysis that puts her significantly behind MM or LV in the two debates to date.
I agree its better for FF and FG to have her in, but she isnt that bad a performer.

L1011 · 03-02-2020 09:37AM

Rigor Mortis wrote: »

I dont think i have seen any analysis that puts her significantly behind MM or LV in the two debates to date.
I agree its better for FF and FG to have her in, but she isnt that bad a performer.

In the 7 way ones it was because attention was elsewhere. In a three way it'll be very obvious

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 09:40AM

Rigor Mortis wrote: »

I dont think i have seen any analysis that puts her significantly behind MM or LV in the two debates to date.
I agree its better for FF and FG to have her in, but she isnt that bad a performer.

She's a whole lot better when she has a single issue to run with. The other two can deal with multiple topics with comfort.

FrancieBrady · 03-02-2020 09:43AM

L1011 wrote: »

In the 7 way ones it was because attention was elsewhere. In a three way it'll be very obvious

Nobody is going to win this argument with you, if you just keep pivoting.

She did very well in the debates so far, she will do even better in a 3 way debate.

SEE, we can all do that.

Acosta · 03-02-2020 09:43AM

Rigor Mortis wrote: »

I dont think i have seen any analysis that puts her significantly behind MM or LV in the two debates to date.
I agree its better for FF and FG to have her in, but she isnt that bad a performer.

I am going to give them a vote for the first time but I wasn't that impressed with her performance in the debates. If Doherty was their leader and they were running more candidates the outcome after Saturday could possibly be huge for them and the country.

olestoepoke · 03-02-2020 09:44AM

If RTE go ahead and have a so called "leaders debate" with only FF and FG there should be a public outcry no matter which party you support. How can it be a leaders debate and exclude Sinn Fein?

L1011 · 03-02-2020 09:45AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Nobody is going to win this argument with you, if you just keep pivoting.

She did very well in the debates so far, she will do even better in a 3 way debate.

SEE, we can all do that.

She did badly in the debates so far but not as badly as some others. That's why there wasn't media attention on it. In the second one Murphys bumbling performance and Mick Barry's shouting means nobody cares who was third worst (which was her)

She is a terrible debater and I imagine knows it. She won't be happy it she is added to the final one

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 09:55AM

olestoepoke wrote: »

If RTE go ahead and have a so called "leaders debate" with only FF and FG there should be a public outcry no matter which party you support. How can it be a leaders debate and exclude Sinn Fein?

You assume the public actually care enough to have an outcry about it. Bear in mind Twitter is not the public!

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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