General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

hurler32 · 02-02-2020 11:30AM

Many Fianna Fail TDs and supporters would be up for a coalition with SF, its Micky Martin that seems to be the main obstacle .
Michael McGrath Taoiseach, Mary Lou Tanaiste?

is_that_so · 02-02-2020 11:32AM

hurler32 wrote: »

Many Fianna Fail TDs and supporters would be up for a coalition with SF, its Micky Martin that seems to be the main obstacle .
Michael McGrath Taoiseach, Mary Lou Tanaiste?

That requires a change of leadership and a new GE is more probable. From a FF perspective he has steered them back into contention.

pixelburp · 02-02-2020 11:33AM

is_that_so wrote: »

That last group are actually growing more numerous and they vote in much higher numbers!

That may not be relevant this time around, given the election is taking place on a Saturday. Demographics traditionally disenfranchised by weekday voting - students mostly, middle class families etc - will or should have no excuse not to vote. Not sure why Varadkar chose Saturday but could bite him in the backside if this latest poll is true, and those demos actually go out and vote. There's really no excuse and if the turnout is under 80% I'll be a little shocked TBH.

Still, can't disguise my displeasure at Martin being Taoiseach. Their manifesto reads like placating so many, with no actual plans. The threatened scuttling of the metro/bus revision alone is worrying and may be finally time to get the heck out of Dublin.

FrancieBrady · 02-02-2020 11:34AM

seamus wrote: »

There's no such thing as an "official" opposition. No reason why that would force it back to an election. Being the largest party in opposition gives you no more power than a single independent.

I agree with Francie, that this is very much a shot across the bow for FFFG. The younger cohort might support SF more permanently, but the 35+ cohort still remembers the troubles. They're willing to give SF a vote to put the sh1ts up Leo & Co, but not so much as to give SF power. The health and housing crises affects this cohort massively and they're not satisfied with what's been done. But they want FFFG to fix it.

The same thing happened in 2011 when FF lost a huge chunk of vote, which then migrated back to them at the next election.

This should be considered good news for SF in the long term, but for this election, they shouldn't be getting ahead of themselves. Twitter has lost the run of itself talking about a grand left coalition being a real possibility. SF have been here before, often. Big strong vote in opinion polls, much weaker in reality. Go into this election expecting 24% and they're going to come away disappointed.
Expect 20%, and be delighted with it, for it'll be the biggest success in their modern history.

Even in the event that they did land all 44 seats, I think a grand left coalition would be a mistake for SF this time around. They're not big enough to weather it.
- it won't last long, maybe 2-3 years at best. Too much in experience, too much divergence to keep it on track for long.

- FFFG, RTE and Communicorp have a war chest of scandals for just this outcome. SF will get hammered by revelation after revelation until their government collapses. Unless they have a large Dail presence of 50+ seats, they'll get bombed back to single-digits like Labour did and will take two decades to recover again.

Hold her steady, stay in opposition, double your field of candidates now so it's ready for the next election (which won't be far away).

A smart FG or FF would take SF into government now. Do a Labour or Greens on them now before they have candidates across the country.

Locking the doors in the way they are doing is growing SF and they will only get stronger and stronger, until it is a landslide sweeping the two of them out of power.

LeinsterDub · 02-02-2020 11:40AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A smart FG or FF would take SF into government now. Do a Labour or Greens on them now before they have candidates across the country.

Locking the doors in the way they are doing is growing SF and they will only get stronger and stronger, until it is a landslide sweeping the two of them out of power.

They don't get to just take SF into power. SF have to agree. Will FF/FG agree to the government supporting the call for a border poll? Will SF agree to follow FF's housing model? I don't see it happening. The way this is panning out we'll be back to the polls in the summer

I Am The Law · 02-02-2020 11:42AM

Good loser wrote: »

I've been around a long time and imo Paschal Donohue is the best Minister for Finance we've ever had and the Coveney/McEntee duo did a superb job in Foreign Affairs.

Murphy and Harris did as good a job in their Ministries as their successors will.

I'm around along time too, this is the type of post that leaves me exasperated.

All I need to do is look at my payslip, or the headline of a paper, then read a post like this to remind me of the inequality that exists.

It's over for FG FF.

Wanderer78 · 02-02-2020 11:43AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

They don't get to just take SF into power. SF have to agree. Will FF/FG agree to the government supporting the call for a border poll? Will SF agree to follow FF's housing model? I don't see it happening. The way this is panning out we'll be back to the polls in the summer

or another confidence and supply!

FrancieBrady · 02-02-2020 11:44AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

They don't get to just take SF into power. SF have to agree. Will FF/FG agree to the government supporting the call for a border poll? Will SF agree to follow FF's housing model? I don't see it happening. The way this is panning out we'll be back to the polls in the summer

That would be advantage to SF.

The two - FF and FG - have to get rid of the image of them rolling up the drawbridge and undemocratically trying to block the will of not SF as such, but the people.

Causing another election, will not work out well for FG or FF I fancy.

is_that_so · 02-02-2020 11:51AM

pixelburp wrote: »

That may not be relevant this time around, given the election is taking place on a Saturday. Demographics traditionally disenfranchised by weekday voting - students mostly, middle class families etc - will or should have no excuse not to vote. Not sure why Varadkar chose Saturday but could bite him in the backside if this latest poll is true, and those demos actually go out and vote. There's really no excuse and if the turnout is under 80% I'll be a little shocked TBH.

Still, can't disguise my displeasure at Martin being Taoiseach. Their manifesto reads like placating so many, with no actual plans. The threatened scuttling of the metro/bus revision alone is worrying and may be finally time to get the heck out of Dublin.

I think it was a case of helping people to vote more easily although there is no evidence that a weekend poll will affect voting patterns. I'd be delighted with 80%, even 70%+!
Health warnings about opinion polls and the MOE nature of recent polls aside, they suggest MM will be best placed to start deal making. They won't do a deal with with SF because they don't need to.

Even with the arithmetic looking even more complicated the first port of call should be supply and confidence and then on the likes of the Greens, Labour and SDs. If FF get over 50 and can get even 5 more , FG will get them over them home without noisome Indos.

is_that_so · 02-02-2020 11:52AM

I Am The Law wrote: »

I'm around along time too, this is the type of post that leaves me exasperated.

All I need to do is look at my payslip, or the headline of a paper, then read a post like this to remind me of the equality that exists.

It's over for FG FF.

That payslip won't change in the next 5 years!

BelovedAunt · 02-02-2020 11:53AM

Lads which party should someone in the middle vote for?

Sir Oxman · 02-02-2020 11:56AM

seamus wrote: »

There's no such thing as an "official" opposition. No reason why that would force it back to an election. Being the largest party in opposition gives you no more power than a single independent.

There is the Leader of the Opposition and to pretend that a SF leader in that de facto position would not be totally anathema to either FF or FG is nonsense.

cameramonkey · 02-02-2020 11:57AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

They don't get to just take SF into power. SF have to agree. Will FF/FG agree to the government supporting the call for a border poll? Will SF agree to follow FF's housing model? I don't see it happening. The way this is panning out we'll be back to the polls in the summer

SF will run more candidates in the summer. That would mean more seats as they have too few candidates for their potential vote size this election. FF/ FG would not want that.

is_that_so · 02-02-2020 11:58AM

BelovedAunt wrote: »

Lads which party should someone in the middle vote for?

Any of FF, FG, SD, Lab or Greens. Just see which you prefer.

is_that_so · 02-02-2020 11:59AM

cameramonkey wrote: »

SF will run more candidates in the summer. That would mean more seats as they have too few candidates for their potential vote size this election. FF/ FG would not want that.

That would depend on who caused a summer vote and what transpired in the meantime.

Sir Oxman · 02-02-2020 11:59AM

pixelburp wrote: »

That may not be relevant this time around, given the election is taking place on a Saturday. Demographics traditionally disenfranchised by weekday voting - students mostly, middle class families etc - will or should have no excuse not to vote. Not sure why Varadkar chose Saturday but could bite him in the backside if this latest poll is true, and those demos actually go out and vote. There's really no excuse and if the turnout is under 80% I'll be a little shocked TBH.

Still, can't disguise my displeasure at Martin being Taoiseach. Their manifesto reads like placating so many, with no actual plans. The threatened scuttling of the metro/bus revision alone is worrying and may be finally time to get the heck out of Dublin.

I saw some data on one of the polls previous to the calling of the GE that FG were on about 30%+ of the 18-34 vote. Plus, they probably expected the full kudos for the repeal success.

BelovedAunt · 02-02-2020 12:03PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Any of FF, FG, SD, Lab or Greens. Just see which you prefer.

Will any actually improve life at all for the tax payer?

ricero · 02-02-2020 12:03PM

FF/FG are dying off just like their core voters, it's great to see.

As a 18 - 34 year old it's great to see my generation abandoning the civil war politics and giving Sinn Fein and others a go.

LeinsterDub · 02-02-2020 12:06PM

is_that_so wrote: »

That payslip won't change in the next 5 years!

Maybe not but the cost of the living could be easily lowered

Itssoeasy · 02-02-2020 12:09PM

pixelburp wrote: »

That may not be relevant this time around, given the election is taking place on a Saturday. Demographics traditionally disenfranchised by weekday voting - students mostly, middle class families etc - will or should have no excuse not to vote. Not sure why Varadkar chose Saturday but could bite him in the backside if this latest poll is true, and those demos actually go out and vote. There's really no excuse and if the turnout is under 80% I'll be a little shocked TBH.

Still, can't disguise my displeasure at Martin being Taoiseach. Their manifesto reads like placating so many, with no actual plans. The threatened scuttling of the metro/bus revision alone is worrying and may be finally time to get the heck out of Dublin.

and this is why while these number look great for SF if the demographics they lead in don't actually go out and vote then the poll today is pointless.

FrancieBrady · 02-02-2020 12:21PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

and this is why while these number look great for SF if the demographics they lead in don't actually go out and vote then the poll today is pointless.

This demographic is the demographic that feels enfranchised by what was achieved in the SSM and women's rights referendums.
I wouldn't be betting on them not turning out tbh.

Sir Oxman · 02-02-2020 12:21PM

Here's the full demographic breakdown from latest poll:

Gbear · 02-02-2020 12:27PM

I don't want to suggest he's outright anti-immigrant but Michael Collins of Cork South West has voiced some vaguely immigration-skeptical stuff and voiced some support for Noel Grealish TD.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/our-own-people-should-come-first-before-we-help-immigrants-td-claims-38509127.html

His facebook page isn't a stream of vitriol about "deh forinurs" or anything of the sort, but if you were thinking of voting for him, it might be worth doing a bit more digging yourself or if he comes canvassing to your area, maybe ask him directly how he feels about immigration-related issues.

jackboy · 02-02-2020 12:29PM

Leo Varadkar. He was bashing immigration from Georgia.

02-02-2020 12:35PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

But when those who need healthcare etc are thrown to the wolves to achieve this so-called sound economy is that ok?

Because that is what FG did.
Went for the low hanging fruit while protecting those who made the economy unsound in the first place.

That's not government - that's protecting the so-called to big to fall at the expense of the many.
And they are still doing it - €20m cuts to disability services proposed - €20m to the FAI also proposed. The people that need support can go whistle while John Delaney rides off into the sunset.

That's FG's sound economics.

FG have increased the health budget by €4 billion since 2014.

Why don't you ask yourself what the HSE has done with that increase?

AndrewJRenko · 02-02-2020 12:41PM

BelovedAunt wrote: »

Lads which party should someone in the middle vote for?

Spend five minutes here to see which parties are closes to your values

http://www.whichcandidate.ie/

Brussels Sprout · 02-02-2020 12:42PM

jackboy wrote: »

Leo Varadkar. He was bashing immigration from Georgia.

He's not an Independent candidate.

Bannasidhe · 02-02-2020 12:51PM

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

Shane Ross is an independent, and an absolute clown.

Is Shane Ross involved in health? No.
Finance? No
Social welfare? No
ALL of those are FG TDs.

Is Ross the Minister for State with responsibility for Disability Issues?
No - that is Finian McGrath.

Those are the people who sign off on cutting €20m from disability services.

Our economy is apparently doing well - unless you have a disability and need support then it's sorry - cutbacks.

But I'm sure it's a coincidence that disability services are being cut by the exact same amount of money being handed to the FAI and Ross suddenly found the €20m down the back of a chesterfield sofa.
And sure lets move on now and let John Delaney enjoy his retirement like all the others who headed up the institutions that FG dug out of the financial holes they were in with Irish taxpayers money.

Also
Where is it written that all Independent TD's must not support neo-liberal economic policies?
Ross certainly does.
Zappone surely appears to...

howiya · 02-02-2020 12:52PM

Brian Garrigan - Dublin Bay North

Bannasidhe · 02-02-2020 12:53PM

salonfire wrote: »

FG have increased the health budget by €4 billion since 2014.

Why don't you ask yourself what the HSE has done with that increase?

I'm not the Minister for Health with responsibility for overseeing the HSE.
Why doesn't he do it?
It's his job.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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