General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

average_runner · 02-02-2020 09:41AM

hurler32 wrote: »

Maybe she did but she’s not going to implement the policy for the super rich people in South Dublin that Fine Gael - RTÉ - Sunday independent have been implementing to the detriment of the rest of Ireland .
If you are rich I can see why one would vote for Fine Gael but for middle income or working class people Fine Gael are not interested . They detest rural Ireland Also so unless you live in Donnybrook , Dalkey or some other South Dublin moneyland voting Fine Gael is a waste of time .

Middle class have gotten screwed the most in this country over the last 15 years, SF want to continue that by giving freebies out to people that have no interest in contributing to our country.

Would love to see a proper party but there is none

average_runner · 02-02-2020 09:43AM

SafeSurfer wrote: »

The thing is for a lot of younger voters the above is as ancient history as Collins’ “squad” or Dev talking about wading through the blood of Irishmen.

Home ownership and the prospect of home ownership is a stabilising force in society. Remove that and people have little to lose by voting for parties with radical, de stabilising policies.

And all parties backed FG in destroying the rental market, gave all to the tenants so the landlords left the market.

is_that_so · 02-02-2020 09:43AM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

It's fanciful I know.
It's not how they turned it around really as it is how FG and FF have let it slip?
Brexit done now, and a ui looking more possible than ever.
Maybe there's more sentiment towards that than the big two thought.
The RIC commeration was a desperate faux pas by FG.
The state of the health service and housing and other things. The beef price thing.
Maybe a lot of people still are sore at FF for ten years ago and don't want to go down that road again?
Edit, and maybe FF should have shipped out MM and freshened themselves up, might have helped them.

No, they have not let it slip. FF were punished because of what happened in 2009. FG are an incumbent looking for a 3rd term. For both it's inevitable to see some voters to look around to see if there is anything else. The real trouble there is that they are looking for a port in a storm and anyone who is not A as I said on another thread. I also think it makes them more susceptible to anyone promising a difference. The rash of Indos in 2011 is evidence enough of that as is the regular Labour ebb and flow. So this time it may be SF and if that doesn't "work out" who will it be next time?

is_that_so · 02-02-2020 09:47AM

endainoz wrote: »

That pinch of salt might want to be taken a bit more seriously now, the young vote matters and will not be ignored.

People clearly want a change.

If they vote and they don't want change, they want whoever promises to fix what makes them angry. BTW this post could been written about the last two election and will serve you well for the next few elections!

Thisonedone · 02-02-2020 09:49AM

Seems the surge in support for SF surprised even them. But still, why didn’t they stand more candidates? What is the disadvantage of standing more candidates? Surely funds weren’t an issue in the decision?

hurler32 · 02-02-2020 09:52AM

maynooth_rules wrote: »

It seems many of these sinn féin voters or possible voters are ignorant of the history of the party. Its a very short time ago when a Sinn Féin TD, who has just retired, collected garda murderers from prison and arranged a party for them. Many seem to forget Gerry Adams and his brothers crimes that were allowed to happen. I could stay going as well.
The army council control Sinn Féin. Vote for them and you are voting for thugs and people with blood on their hands from South Armagh etc. To have a role in our government. It will be a dark dark day if it happens
Fair enough if people want a shift to a left wing government, but a party with SFs history should not be that answer. Oh and look at their polices in government in Northern Ireland if you want a true look at them, not their pie in the sky manifesto.

Michael Collins and Fine Gaels predecessors created this 3/4 free Ireland that was always going to create mayhem. We should have all stayed under British rule or else had a United Ireland, one or the other , not this fudge which is still messing up the Island.

is_that_so · 02-02-2020 09:52AM

Rigor Mortis wrote: »

its pretty much impossible that MLMD willl be leader of largest party in the Dail. She may win the popular vote, but they dont have enough candidates.

They can expected to be down on election day. As much as they'll get excited about the level of "support" their approach suggests they planned for mid teens themselves. If that is the case they will increase the number of seats and retain almost all of their current seats.

is_that_so · 02-02-2020 10:02AM

Thisonedone wrote: »

Seems the surge in support for SF surprised even them. But still, why didn’t they stand more candidates? What is the disadvantage of standing more candidates? Surely funds weren’t an issue in the decision?

Their strategy seems predicated on an expected support level in the mid teens and you can't run an election campaign off opinion polls. They also took a dive in the locals. Their support is not uniform in the way FF or FG might be in constituencies.

Bishop of hope · 02-02-2020 10:08AM

is_that_so wrote: »

No, they have not let it slip. FF were punished because of what happened in 2009. FG are an incumbent looking for a 3rd term. For both it's inevitable to see some voters to look around to see if there is anything else. The real trouble there is that they are looking for a port in a storm and anyone who is not A as I said on another thread. I also think it makes them more susceptible to anyone promising a difference. The rash of Indos in 2011 is evidence enough of that as is the regular Labour ebb and flow. So this time it may be SF and if that doesn't "work out" who will it be next time?

What does that mean, any port in a storm.
Are you basically admitting that there is good reason for people to be looking for alternatives?
And I detect a bit of the FG attitude of its not our fault, its everybody else's.

smelly sock · 02-02-2020 10:10AM

I think the voters, especially middle income voters are so pissed off with the lack of recovery for them. Sky high mortgage rates, childcare costs, high tax on income whether it be usc, prsi, paye, LPT etc and the continous footing of the people who dont work and get a free house and a wage every week.

Pretty sure sinn fein will make all that worse butbheres hoping.

The polls genrally arent that far out. I dont think they will be this time.

I'll be voting Social Dems, sin feinn, independent, labour, pbb. Anyone but the FF/FG monopoly.

And thats from someone who always voted FF/FG up until 10 years ago.

is_that_so · 02-02-2020 10:13AM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

What does that mean, any port in a storm.
Are you basically admitting that there is good reason for people to be looking for alternatives?
And I detect a bit of the FG attitude of its not our fault, its everybody else's.

You're really not much of a detective! If a voter chooses a candidate for what they are not what exactly are they voting for? And if said candidate/party doesn't work out for them who will they vote for next who is not something else?

Sir Oxman · 02-02-2020 10:13AM

beggars_bush wrote: »

Is homelessness that big of an issue for the general voter?
I doubt it
More the lack of affordable housing or supply of rental housing

It's housing overall whether renting, buying or people in 'short-term' emergency accommodation

That is the biggest issue - the impact of the mess presided over by FG cannot be underestimated.

Bishop of hope · 02-02-2020 10:16AM

is_that_so wrote: »

You're really not much of a detective! If a voter chooses a candidate for what they are not what exactly are they voting for? And if said candidate/party doesn't work out for them who will they vote for next who is not something else?

You've lost me, honestly.

Leo on Andrew Marr BBC show right now, brexit chat

Sir Oxman · 02-02-2020 10:19AM

is_that_so wrote: »

They can expected to be down on election day. As much as they'll get excited about the level of "support" their approach suggests they planned for mid teens themselves. If that is the case they will increase the number of seats and retain almost all of their current seats.

Yes, I can see them on current seats or maybe a few more.
30 out of 42 would be amazing for them.
All of course if the trend of SF landing on 5% or so less than the polls doesn't hold up this time.

is_that_so · 02-02-2020 10:21AM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

You've lost me, honestly.

It's that ABFFG vote. It has to go somewhere but if it goes to SF or say the Greens they are more likely to favoured because they are ABFFG, not because a voter necessarily embraces their policies. Now if they are seen to mess up voters of that mindset will look elsewhere. See Labour in 1997, 2016 and quite likely Indos in this one for examples.

Bishop of hope · 02-02-2020 10:32AM

is_that_so wrote: »

It's that ABFFG vote. It has to go somewhere but if it goes to SF or say the Greens they are more likely to favoured because they are ABFFG, not because a voter necessarily embraces their policies. Now if they are seen to mess up voters of that mindset will look elsewhere. See Labour in 1997, 2016 and quite likely Indos in this one for examples.

OK, but that doesent matter really does it, it's the 2020 election we are on about here.
Voting patterns always change from election to election and most are judged on their performance in between the last election and the current.
People seem to be disenfranchised with the old FG FF swap around and to be looking for alternatives this time.

zell12 · 02-02-2020 10:33AM

Varadkar currently on BBC1 admitting that it will be very difficult to form a new government, six days before polling day

02-02-2020 10:37AM

zell12 wrote: »

Varadkar currently on BBC1 admitting that it will be very difficult to form a new government, six days before polling day

I thought that he came across well. Got a dig in at SF manifesto.

Hurrache · 02-02-2020 10:44AM

hurler32 wrote: »

Maybe she did but she’s not going to implement the policy for the super rich people in South Dublin that Fine Gael - RTÉ - Sunday independent have been implementing to the detriment of the rest of Ireland .
If you are rich I can see why one would vote for Fine Gael but for middle income or working class people Fine Gael are not interested . They detest rural Ireland Also so unless you live in Donnybrook , Dalkey or some other South Dublin moneyland voting Fine Gael is a waste of time .

You know the Taoiseach lives in North West Dublin?

You think there's only 2 types of people in Ireland, those that live in some bizzare area of South Dublin alongside Deansgrange, Tallaght, Clondalkin, and those that don't?

Sir Oxman · 02-02-2020 10:49AM

Demographic breakdown of BP/Red C poll (smaller samples so higher margin of error):

Voters aged 18-34
SF 35
FF 18
FG 15

Voters aged 35-54
SF 29
FF 19
FG 18

Voters aged 55+:
FF 32
FG 27
SF 11

FrancieBrady · 02-02-2020 10:50AM

It really only matters to me that there is a huge vote for SF this time.
I know they won't be the largest party and that the two powerswap party's will, one way or another, probably lock the door against them.
But the message will have been delivered at least. **** it up again and real change is possible next time out.

Sir Oxman · 02-02-2020 10:55AM

If SF take second largest # of seats and we end up with a similar FF/FG conf&supply being the only govt possible, that would make SF the official opposition - I don't think FG would accept that and we could be heading to another election.

Fann Linn · 02-02-2020 10:57AM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Demographic breakdown of BP/Red C poll (smaller samples so higher margin of error):

Voters aged 18-34
SF 35
FF 18
FG 15

Voters aged 35-54
SF 29
FF 19
FG 18

Voters aged 55+:
FF 32
FG 27
SF 11

They're dying off.

FrancieBrady · 02-02-2020 11:01AM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

If SF take second largest # of seats and we end up with a similar FF/FG conf&supply being the only govt possible, that would make SF the official opposition - I don't think FG would accept that and we could be heading to another election.

That could be enough for an electorate in this mood to finish them off.
Fascinated to see how MM handles this week...does he shut up about SF or does he double down on attacking them.

I suspect a massive hunt is going on the find a 'whiff of cordite' about Mary Lou.

McMurphy · 02-02-2020 11:16AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I thought that he came across well. Got a dig in at SF manifesto.

Getting a dig in at SF seems to be the whole M.O of his party since long before the election was called, and the silly social media videos they've been creating and quickly pulling when the general public give them a backlash for them is doing them no favours either, as it's portraying fg as being extremely arrogant.

The superiority complex they have over the shinners is coming back to bite them on their well padded backsides.

Said it on another thread, FG seem to be campaigning on attacking Sinn Fein

Sinn Fein meanwhile are campaigning on the housing and health crises.

I'd have expected them to change tact after the various polls showing the surge for Sinn Fein, but no, they're keeping it up regardless.

Whoops - there's that arrogance I spoke about earlier.

is_that_so · 02-02-2020 11:19AM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

OK, but that doesent matter really does it, it's the 2020 election we are on about here.
Voting patterns always change from election to election and most are judged on their performance in between the last election and the current.
People seem to be disenfranchised with the old FG FF swap around and to be looking for alternatives this time.

I think the one thing that has changed is the level of so-called core votes. Now what we have is a whole lot more of the floating vote, but even that is splintered. I reckon there are two main types, those who will move their voters around a fairly select choice, generally in the centre and the much more volatile voter who has higher expectations and is far more likely to back any horse.

McMurphy · 02-02-2020 11:19AM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Demographic breakdown of BP/Red C poll (smaller samples so higher margin of error):

Voters aged 18-34
SF 35
FF 18
FG 15

Voters aged 35-54
SF 29
FF 19
FG 18

Voters aged 55+:
FF 32
FG 27
SF 11

The older vote who voted civil war party's no matter what, most likely because their parents and granny's did too seems to be dying out.

It's also the younger generation who will be most likely to be adversely affected by the rent/home buying issues.

is_that_so · 02-02-2020 11:21AM

Fann Linn wrote: »

They're dying off.

That last group are actually growing more numerous and they vote in much higher numbers!

FrancieBrady · 02-02-2020 11:28AM

McMurphy wrote: »

Getting a dig in at SF seems to be the whole M.O of his party since long before the election was called, and the silly social media videos they've been creating and quickly pulling when the general public give them a backlash for them is doing them no favours either, as it's portraying fg as being extremely arrogant.

The superiority complex they have over the shinners is coming back to bite them on their well padded backsides.

Said it on another thread, FG seem to be campaigning on attacking Sinn Fein

Sinn Fein meanwhile are campaigning on the housing and health crises.

I'd have expected them to change tact after the various polls showing the surge for Sinn Fein, but no, they're keeping it up regardless.

Whoops - there's that arrogance I spoke about earlier.

There is an out for FG (this is stretching things maybe, but not impossible) in Leo's criticism of SF.
He is very stridently qualifying his criticism by saying his objection to government with them 'is not based on the past but the future they offer'.

If you ignore FG's traditional hate of SF for a minute, it wouldn't be hard to see that view changing if a programme for government could be agreed that removes some of the 'scary to FG' future.

I think Leo is, in a way, leaving options open to himself tbh, Martin has boxed himself into a cul de sac. Leo knows this as well, and it gives MM less options. There is certainly some sort of personal affinity between Leo and MLM, you sense they could do business, even if the grassroots might be somewhat tougher.

seamus · 02-02-2020 11:28AM

There's no such thing as an "official" opposition. No reason why that would force it back to an election. Being the largest party in opposition gives you no more power than a single independent.

I agree with Francie, that this is very much a shot across the bow for FFFG. The younger cohort might support SF more permanently, but the 35+ cohort still remembers the troubles. They're willing to give SF a vote to put the sh1ts up Leo & Co, but not so much as to give SF power. The health and housing crises affects this cohort massively and they're not satisfied with what's been done. But they want FFFG to fix it.

The same thing happened in 2011 when FF lost a huge chunk of vote, which then migrated back to them at the next election.

This should be considered good news for SF in the long term, but for this election, they shouldn't be getting ahead of themselves. Twitter has lost the run of itself talking about a grand left coalition being a real possibility. SF have been here before, often. Big strong vote in opinion polls, much weaker in reality. Go into this election expecting 24% and they're going to come away disappointed.
Expect 20%, and be delighted with it, for it'll be the biggest success in their modern history.

Even in the event that they did land all 44 seats, I think a grand left coalition would be a mistake for SF this time around. They're not big enough to weather it.
- it won't last long, maybe 2-3 years at best. Too much in experience, too much divergence to keep it on track for long.

- FFFG, RTE and Communicorp have a war chest of scandals for just this outcome. SF will get hammered by revelation after revelation until their government collapses. Unless they have a large Dail presence of 50+ seats, they'll get bombed back to single-digits like Labour did and will take two decades to recover again.

Hold her steady, stay in opposition, double your field of candidates now so it's ready for the next election (which won't be far away).

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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