new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

tom1ie · 29-01-2020 03:24PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Looks totally mild if no underlying conditions and under 50 y/o

That your opinion or is that from world health organisation?

Larbre34 · 29-01-2020 03:26PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Looks totally mild if no underlying conditions and under 50 y/o

Eh, no, its conversion rate to pneumonia in people with otherwise healthy profiles is unprecedented. Thats the bogeyman.

pc7 · 29-01-2020 03:26PM

IspeakcozIcan wrote: »

Does anyone have links for buying proper facemasks? Have heard they've sold out in many places across Dublin.

You could try amazon but think delivery dates pushed out, you need a N95 type at minimum

pc7 · 29-01-2020 03:27PM

Larbre34 wrote: »

Eh, no, its conversion rate to pneumonia in people with otherwise healthy profiles is unprecedented. Thats the bogeyman.

Can pneumonia then be cured with normal medication?

joeguevara · 29-01-2020 03:27PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Many estimates have put the coronavirus mortality rate at between 2-4% and seasonal flu as 0.1%, both figures are widely disseminated and easily accessible

seasonal flu is 0.01% as opposed to 0.1%

1800_Ladladlad · 29-01-2020 03:29PM

eh some people finding ways to pass the time in a fun way but if I was contained for this long I would be accusing the misses of spying on me....

https://twitter.com/MissXQ/status/1222445219951468544

wakka12 · 29-01-2020 03:30PM

Larbre34 wrote: »

Eh, no, its conversion rate to pneumonia in people with otherwise healthy profiles is unprecedented. Thats the bogeyman.

Really? Is there confirmation of that? Not everybody who died had underlying health conditions

clever user name · 29-01-2020 03:30PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Can someone explain why there is so much urgency to control this virus? Is it because there are no vaccines for it so vulnerable people, such and elderly, babies and immune compromised aren’t at risk?

I told someone that BA have suspended flights to China. They said the media are hyping the situation and it is just as common as a cold or flu. What is the urgency and why isn’t Ireland taking precautions if needed ?

The urgency comes to down to the fact that there's 1.4 billion people in China and travelling in between cities/provinces here is extremely easy. Add to that the fact that more Chinese people than ever are travelling abroad. Unless extreme measures are taken then this really has the opportunity to become a global pandemic. As much as the Chinese government has been the butt of many a joke the last few months, there's very few countries in the world that have the basically cordon off a province of 50 million people. If they hadn't done that, I guarantee a good portion of the population of Wuhan would have left to other cities to escape (and some abroad); a percentage of whom would have taken the virus with them.

As for the virus itself, I'm not a virologist so I can only go by what I've heard. It seems to be more contagious than the flu. I've heard varying reports, anywhere from an R0 of 1.5, up to as high as 6.0. Think of it this way, thousands of people every year get the flu over the course of a 'flu season'. If they need to be hospitalized, not an issue. They go to the hospital and get treated. Now add in the fact that this virus apparently causes viral pneumonia in a decent percentage of cases. Even moderate respiratory issues need seeing too. So instead of a a trickle of flu patients over the course of weeks/months, you've got potentially thousands of patients needing treatment, all in the space of a week. Christ, Chinese hospitals are already always jammed on a normal day (as are hospitals in most other countries).

So yes, while panic is probably not warranted in Western Europe just yet, unless extreme measures are taken who knows what could happen.

29-01-2020 03:32PM

Yurt! wrote: »

These are countries that have sustained recessions before, and will sustain them again - post-reform China has never been tested with a serious economic downturn. Just my hunch, and going off what I know about China (not proclaiming to be an Ivy-League Sinologist here), it won't be pretty. Xi could find himself in a spot of bother with regard to his legitimacy.

TBH, I suspect the average Chinese person wouldn't really lose that much with an economic downturn. Salaries are typically quite low (few above the 5k mark) outside of the Tier 1 cities, as is the general cost of living. And so the average Chinese person tends to live a rather frugal lifestyle with their money going towards "face" items. I would imagine we'd just see a massive reduction of foreign products being bought, and a return to the cheaper lifestyle.

It's the rich/wealthy that would be affected the most.

As for unrest, again I wouldn't be too quick to imagine a harsh attitude against Xi. He's got massive support from the "peasants" and lower middle class. A degree of government support to maintain their existing lives would likely offset any real issues. More likely, criticism would be turned towards external targets, such as Japan/US/ foreigners in general. There would be a lot of people who would accept separating the issues of an economic downturn, and the actual virus itself.

TBH The government has a lot of ways to swing public opinion in China. It really depends on just how severe the cost in life is from the virus, and even then, many Chinese are very flippant about such things. Life is cheap is a common attitude when it doesn't directly affect them..

wakka12 · 29-01-2020 03:34PM

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full
Asian people may be much more susceptible to the coronavirus than people of european or african descent, may explain why it is spreading so much faster there

ceadaoin. · 29-01-2020 03:39PM

pc7 wrote: »

You could try amazon but think delivery dates pushed out, you need a N95 type at minimum

You could try a hardware shop. Apparently some.of the masks sold there for painting etc are pretty much the same thing and they definitely arent out of stock here yet (US)

Snow Garden · 29-01-2020 03:40PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Many estimates have put the coronavirus mortality rate at between 2-4% and seasonal flu as 0.1%, both figures are widely disseminated and easily accessible

Let's be clear though. SARS was a coronavirus and killed less than 800 people worldwide. It had a fatality rate of 11%.

frillyleaf · 29-01-2020 03:41PM

clever user name wrote: »

The urgency comes to down to the fact that there's 1.4 billion people in China and travelling in between cities/provinces here is extremely easy. Add to that the fact that more Chinese people than ever are travelling abroad. Unless extreme measures are taken then this really has the opportunity to become a global pandemic. As much as the Chinese government has been the butt of many a joke the last few months, there's very few countries in the world that have the basically cordon off a province of 50 million people. If they hadn't done that, I guarantee a good portion of the population of Wuhan would have left to other cities to escape (and some abroad); a percentage of whom would have taken the virus with them.

As for the virus itself, I'm not a virologist so I can only go by what I've heard. It seems to be more contagious than the flu. I've heard varying reports, anywhere from an R0 of 1.5, up to as high as 6.0. Think of it this way, thousands of people every year get the flu over the course of a 'flu season'. If they need to be hospitalized, not an issue. They go to the hospital and get treated. Now add in the fact that this virus apparently causes viral pneumonia in a decent percentage of cases. Even moderate respiratory issues need seeing too. So instead of a a trickle of flu patients over the course of weeks/months, you've got potentially thousands of patients needing treatment, all in the space of a week. Christ, Chinese hospitals are already always jammed on a normal day (as are hospitals in most other countries).

So yes, while panic is probably not warranted in Western Europe just yet, unless extreme measures are taken who knows what could happen.

Thank you. Imagine the HSE trying to deal with this! I’m surprised we aren’t doing what UK and Australia are doing with quarantine as it sounds like urgent action needs to be taken. Even if we don’t have a direct flight there is still possibility of it getting here.

If the cities are in lock down is that making it safe for us? Seems a bit lax if it’s as serious as this.

volchitsa · 29-01-2020 03:42PM

Deleted User wrote: »

TBH, I suspect the average Chinese person wouldn't really lose that much with an economic downturn. Salaries are typically quite low (few above the 5k mark) outside of the Tier 1 cities, as is the general cost of living. And so the average Chinese person tends to live a rather frugal lifestyle with their money going towards "face" items. I would imagine we'd just see a massive reduction of foreign products being bought, and a return to the cheaper lifestyle.

It's the rich/wealthy that would be affected the most.

As for unrest, again I wouldn't be too quick to imagine a harsh attitude against Xi. He's got massive support from the "peasants" and lower middle class. A degree of government support to maintain their existing lives would likely offset any real issues. More likely, criticism would be turned towards external targets, such as Japan/US/ foreigners in general. There would be a lot of people who would accept separating the issues of an economic downturn, and the actual virus itself.

TBH The government has a lot of ways to swing public opinion in China. It really depends on just how severe the cost in life is from the virus, and even then, many Chinese are very flippant about such things. Life is cheap is a common attitude when it doesn't directly affect them..

The rest of your post makes sense, but the bit in bold puzzles me: I'd understand it if it weren't for the one child policy, but surely now that most people will have one child and one grandchild, there has to have been a corresponding change in social attitudes?

Even if they don't care about their neighbours' child dying, wouldn't you expect there to be widespread protest about a high deathrate precisely because their own children are also at risk?

Nijmegen · 29-01-2020 03:42PM

Re surgical masks, I'd forget about them. Snapped up already. Company was speaking to several suppliers who've said end-Feb at best, but if it gets worse their fear is their suppliers will sell on to higher demand areas at a better price. Also, loads of these products are Made In... You guessed it, and likely to be snapped up. End Feb either this will have blown over and you don't need them or it's so bad you won't get them.

Re social unrest in China, they have.... Ways... Of keeping everything under control. The difference in China to, say, Ireland is that you know in China that if you rock up to the local Lidl during a crisis event to take it apart with a stolen digger, they will shoot and kill you no bother or send you off to a "re-education camp" if you're bold. The current president made his name ferreting out corrupt officials and executed quite a few.

Germany now joining the evacuation train and planning quarantine for those brought back. Companies stopping their employees travelling. People voting with their feet.

bb12 · 29-01-2020 03:44PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Let's be clear though. SARS was a coronavirus and killed less than 800 people worldwide. It had a fatality rate of 11%.

yes but SARS infected 8000 people between 2002-2003....this has infected >6000 in just a couple of weeks

29-01-2020 03:54PM

volchitsa wrote: »

The rest of your post makes sense, but the bit in bold puzzles me: I'd understand it if it weren't for the one child policy, but surely now that most people will have one child and one grandchild, there has to have been a corresponding change in social attitudes?

Even if they don't care about their neighbours' child dying, wouldn't you expect there to be widespread protest about a high deathrate precisely because their own children are also at risk?

IMHO, Chinese people are rather selfish, and inward looking. Sure, they'll complain online but when it comes to real life, they only look at what immediately affects themselves. The aspect of life is cheap is reinforced because of their history with the great leap and subsequent famines. There's a massive gap in sympathy or interest between different provinces.. almost as if they're entirely different countries at times.

The thing is what would they expect the Chinese government to do about it? It's so easy to pass blame and responsibility within Chinese culture. Personally, I fully expect Xi to link the failure of hospitals to have sufficient medicine on hand to his own campaign against corruption, and removing those politically against him. We'll see dozens of scapegoats, and the people will mostly accept it because the alternative course of action is too aggressive or dangerous.

29-01-2020 03:59PM

Nijmegen wrote: »

Re social unrest in China, they have.... Ways... Of keeping everything under control. The difference in China to, say, Ireland is that you know in China that if you rock up to the local Lidl during a crisis event to take it apart with a stolen digger, they will shoot and kill you no bother or send you off to a "re-education camp" if you're bold. The current president made his name ferreting out corrupt officials and executed quite a few.

Traditional Chinese culture also provides a host of ways for them to keep control. People seem to disregard what China was like under the Nationalists and again, the Empire. They've got thousand of years of social programming, and the Government knows how to pull those strings without ever showing the fist. It's just when they get frightened that they switch to the more obvious forms of oppression.

Call Me Jimmy · 29-01-2020 04:00PM

Yurt! wrote: »

Quite frankly, the greater danger now is if all these shutdowns persist and profiteering with foodstuffs takes hold, social unrest is a real possibility.

Mainland Chinese have a scarcity mentality being just a generation removed from food insecurity and famine. This is my pet theory, but I hold it's why you see people queuing for gaudy Italian handbags or paying thousands of dollars online for limited edition Nikes. The collective memory of want will mean that if certain food items become thin on the ground and unscrupulous individuals profiteer from it, things will get bad.

This is quite apart from an already sluggish economy with some crazy examples of misallocated capital.

China doesn't have the social or civic infrastructure to cope with an economic jolt that will harm the economy for months on end.

Completely agree, it seems likely even with an extremely positive outlook for the virus, there'll be social unrest the kind this iteration of the government has never seen. On the other hand if the numbers estimated by epidemiologists in top universities manifest, I am convinced Wuhan / Hubei will require 'physical intervention'.

Early indications of people homes being 'marked' and physically barricaded, and a clash with police while again 'unverified', point to what I was expecting, a slow cracking at the epicenter.

Let's not forget, the effect of the lockdown and advise on other major cities is huge. We have never seen anything like this, economically, psychologically, logistically speaking. It's just a giant experiment that counts on the virus being controlled VERY quickly.

clever user name · 29-01-2020 04:00PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Thank you. Imagine the HSE trying to deal with this! I’m surprised we aren’t doing what UK and Australia are doing with quarantine as it sounds like urgent action needs to be taken. Even if we don’t have a direct flight there is still possibility of it getting here.

If the cities are in lock down is that making it safe for us? Seems a bit lax if it’s as serious as this.

They locked down the epicenter, where it originated, so that will of course help. The problem is it's impossible to keep track of everyone who left before that area was locked down. Take this with a grain of salt, but they reckon more than a million people (conservative estimate) could have left before Wuhan and the surrounding areas before was shut down. That might sound like a lot, but when you consider it's Chinese New Year and everyone travels to visit family it's not quite so outlandish. So I can fully understand countries cancelling flights. My personal opinion is that all is being done to prevent the worst case scenario. Could China have done something sooner? Probably, but when is the right time to seal off a city larger than London? I wouldn't want to be the one calling that.

Oranage2 · 29-01-2020 04:01PM

clever user name wrote: »

They locked down the epicenter, where it originated, so that will of course help. The problem is it's impossible to keep track of everyone who left before that area was locked down. Take this with a grain of salt, but they reckon more than a million people (conservative estimate) could have left before Wuhan and the surrounding areas before was shut down. That might sound like a lot, but when you consider it's Chinese New Year and everyone travels to visit family it's not quite so outlandish. So I can fully understand countries cancelling flights. My personal opinion is that all is being done to prevent the worst case scenario. Could China have done something sooner? Probably, but when is the right time to seal off a city larger than London? I wouldn't want to be the one calling that.

The Wuhan mayor said 5 million left before the lock down.

Call Me Jimmy · 29-01-2020 04:03PM

Also, regarding the relative 180 in the acceleration of confirmed cases in Hubei yesterday, one thing that seemed to happen is the suspected cases had continued on the original trajectory, while the confirmed new cases rate did u-turn.

Anyone here who knows more about this stuff have a take on this?

4068ac1elhodqr · 29-01-2020 04:07PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Asian people may be much more susceptible to the coronavirus than people of european or african descent, may explain why it is spreading so much faster there

Honestly, this sounds like pure nonsense. If it comes from bat/snakes, it won't care what type of human it effects, or what their skin colour is.

It originated in a wet market in a city about the size of London, hence that is why Wuhan is the epicentre, to great (not) surprise.

clever user name · 29-01-2020 04:07PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

The Wuhan mayor said 5 million left before the lock down.

Yes I heard that, but I only heard it secondhand so didn't want to stick that figure in there without a source. God knows there's enough crap being spread around.

29-01-2020 04:09PM

clever user name wrote: »

They locked down the epicenter, where it originated, so that will of course help. The problem is it's impossible to keep track of everyone who left before that area was locked down. Take this with a grain of salt, but they reckon more than a million people (conservative estimate) could have left before Wuhan and the surrounding areas before was shut down. That might sound like a lot, but when you consider it's Chinese New Year and everyone travels to visit family it's not quite so outlandish. So I can fully understand countries cancelling flights. My personal opinion is that all is being done to prevent the worst case scenario. Could China have done something sooner? Probably, but when is the right time to seal off a city larger than London? I wouldn't want to be the one calling that.

Wuhan is a major travel/transportation hub for China. The idea of closing it down during Spring Festival would have required some serious discussion within the upper echelons of the government. Closing it down without solid reasons would have pissed off a lot of people...

This virus has jumped in severity rather quickly. At the time of the original disclosure, it could have been just another small problem that disappeared on its own. They gambled and lost. I could see that happening to many countries.

I don't think most people here understand what Chinese cities are like. It's one thing to say 9 million people, it's another thing to actually see it for yourself, and then to appreciate the logistics in controlling them. And then to consider the way that such cities are organised, and the closeness of the countryside. It would be quite easy for people to pass a cordon in most Chinese cities considering that many cities aren't planned very well.

29-01-2020 04:14PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

The Wuhan mayor said 5 million left before the lock down.

Wuhan averages around 11 million... and would have received millions of people travelling to the city to change "trains/flights/river transport" for other destinations. 5 million might have left.. sure.. I can see that. I can also see a few million getting stuck in Wuhan because their transport was stopped during the quarantine.

Spring festival is easily the craziest period in China, and I've never seen anywhere else which comes even close in terms of the numbers of people moving around. I did it once. Xi'an to Beijing by train (not High speed). Never again. Couldn't pay me any amount of money to endure that again.

wakka12 · 29-01-2020 04:14PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Honestly, this sounds like pure nonsense. If it comes from bat/snakes, it won't care what type of human it effects, or what their skin colour is.

It originated in a wet market in a city about the size of London, hence that is why Wuhan is the epicentre, to great (not) surprise.

How does it sound like nonsense? There is great difference in susceptibility to a range of disease within different human races and ethnicities

Muir · 29-01-2020 04:21PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Also, regarding the relative 180 in the acceleration of confirmed cases in Hubei yesterday, one thing that seemed to happen is the suspected cases had continued on the original trajectory, while the confirmed new cases rate did u-turn.

Anyone here who knows more about this stuff have a take on this?

It could be down to the number of people they're currently able to test in a day. Don't know that for certain, just a possibility.

frillyleaf · 29-01-2020 04:21PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Honestly, this sounds like pure nonsense. If it comes from bat/snakes, it won't care what type of human it effects, or what their skin colour is.

It originated in a wet market in a city about the size of London, hence that is why Wuhan is the epicentre, to great (not) surprise.

What is a wet market ?

pc7 · 29-01-2020 04:22PM

Klaz are you in contact with any of your friends/colleagues still in Wuhan?

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Comments