General Election TV debates

shenanagans · 29-01-2020 12:34AM

mgn wrote: »

FG not going to get a seat in Roscommon/Galway either.

That's more as a result of their candidate not running this time.....Hopkins could have done well but she decided not to run.

tayto lover · 29-01-2020 12:35AM

Matt Barrett wrote: »

NCH,
IW,
Sitserv deal

Selling houses to vulture funds....then buying them back.
Prefered bidder how are ya.
You know, the lads.

Didn’t hear about them buying houses back from vulture funds.
Would you have a link to that Matt please?

shenanagans · 29-01-2020 12:36AM

Suckit wrote: »

FG were very quick to point out how FF brought the country to it's knees and blew all the money etc..
That must be why they were so careful not to overspend on any contracts.. :rolleyes:
That really takes some doing to overspend by the amount they did.

What about the most expensive childrens hospital in the world....

mgn · 29-01-2020 12:45AM

shenanagans wrote: »

That's more as a result of their candidate not running this time.....Hopkins could have done well but she decided not to run.

Hopkins may have done well, but still couldn't see her getting elected, there is still a lot of bad blood around FG over the hospital.

James Brown · 29-01-2020 12:48AM

tayto lover wrote: »

Didn’t hear about them buying houses back from vulture funds.
Would you have a link to that Matt please?

Ah for f*** sake. I'm getting Nintendo thumb...

Here....

Government criticised for buying mortgages from vulture fund at full market value

A group representing homeless people has criticised plans for the state to pay market value for homes previously owned by Nama.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/government-criticised-for-buying-mortgages-from-vulture-fund-at-full-market-value-864997.html

NAMA sold them, likely at a loss. Murphy bought them back at full price market rate.
Noonan being inappropriate up north most likely.

Suckit · 29-01-2020 01:19AM

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Ah for f*** sake. I'm getting Nintendo thumb...

Here....

NAMA sold them, likely at a loss. Murphy bought them back at full price market rate.
Noonan being inappropriate up north most likely.

Murphy's Past coming back to him, I won't say 'haunt' him, as it's more likely he's smirking.

http://www.eoghanmurphy.ie/2010/06/02/a-day-in-the-life/

1pm Lunch around the corner. Order the wrong thing – going to be hungry later. Have to leave lunch for ten minutes to meet two local FGers who are outside the office. We have a brief chat and arrange to talk again later. Back to lunch. Discussing rent and utilities. Figure out we’re still basically paying boom rent prices. Brilliant.

..Then FG took over and the rent has risen by almost 40%.

Phoebas · 29-01-2020 08:25AM

mgn wrote: »

Heard Ming was out canvassing with her recently, when that fool can get elected, there is hope for her.

Ming - who led the turf cutters - canvassing with a Green Party candidate!

Odd.

is_that_so · 29-01-2020 10:21AM

shenanagans wrote: »

Listening to Gavin O Reilly and Ivan Yeats earlier.....prediction was for NO FG seat for Sligo/Leitrim....so not holding seats on all rural areas. And Yeats is good with election predictions.

He had Marion Harkin (independent) stealing the current FG seat.

He likes to think he is but not quite as good as he imagines. Always good to have a block of salt to hand with Ivan's calls. Not a patch on Mike Marsh nor the late great Noel Whelan. Not too knowledgeable about Sligo myself but on numbers from the last election with FG at 27% that may not be true at all. Even on 20% that's a seat for them as they have generally been good nationally on vote management. I reckon it will come down to how they and FF do manage the votes. It will be very competitive for sure.

FrancieBrady · 29-01-2020 10:42AM

is_that_so wrote: »

He likes to think he is but not quite as good as he imagines. Always good to have a block of salt to hand with Ivan's calls. Not a patch on Mike Marsh nor the late great Noel Whelan.

In 2016 Whelan predicted:

Fine Gael 66 seats, Fianna Fáil 35, Sinn Féin 24 and Labour 8.

the results were:
Fine Gael 49 seats, Fianna Fáil 44 Sinn Féin 23 and Labour 7.

Don't wish to speak ill of the dead, I liked Whelan a lot, but 'great' is an over estimation.

Idbatterim · 29-01-2020 10:45AM

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Here is a useful link to the manifestos of Irish political parties ahead of each general election.

http://michaelpidgeon.com/manifestos/

It seems the meaning of a manifesto is lost on many people.

Only a party in government with an overall majority can attempt to deliver its manifesto in it’s entirety.

Labour should put that up on their website and posters. Their ex delusional supporters seem to think that they weren’t a massively junior party to fg last time and that Ireland wasn’t the one with the begging bowl out!

Idbatterim · 29-01-2020 10:47AM

Suckit wrote: »

FG were very quick to point out how FF brought the country to it's knees and blew all the money etc..
That must be why they were so careful not to overspend on any contracts.. :rolleyes:
That really takes some doing to overspend by the amount they did.

Ff are easily worse than fg. Fg have made expensive mistakes , mainly on the nch. But that is a one off project. Ff will ramp up spending on shot on a far broader scale , before it all collapses again

Loafing Oaf · 29-01-2020 10:50AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Not too knowledgeable about Sligo myself but on numbers from the last election with FG at 27% that may not be true at all. Even on 20% that's a seat for them as they have generally been good nationally on vote management. I reckon it will come down to how they and FF do manage the votes. It will be very competitive for sure.

Yeah it'll be Harkin, MacSharry, Kenny, and the last seat will be between FG and FF2, couldn't be called with confidence at this stage.

is_that_so · 29-01-2020 10:59AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

In 2016 Whelan predicted:

Fine Gael 66 seats, Fianna Fáil 35, Sinn Féin 24 and Labour 8.

the results were:
Fine Gael 49 seats, Fianna Fáil 44 Sinn Féin 23 and Labour 7.

Don't wish to speak ill of the dead, I liked Whelan a lot, but 'great' is an over estimation.

He was a whole lot better than Yates will ever be. My memories of him are the on the day analysis, which was always good, especially in his knowledge of local voting patterns.

easypazz · 29-01-2020 11:00AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

In 2016 Whelan predicted:

Fine Gael 66 seats, Fianna Fáil 35, Sinn Féin 24 and Labour 8.

the results were:
Fine Gael 49 seats, Fianna Fáil 44 Sinn Féin 23 and Labour 7.

Don't wish to speak ill of the dead, I liked Whelan a lot, but 'great' is an over estimation.

He was also a FF candidate at one stage. Means by default it is impossible to class him as "great"

easypazz · 29-01-2020 11:02AM

is_that_so wrote: »

He was a whole lot better than Yates will ever be. My memories of him are the on the day analysis, which was always good, especially in his knowledge of local voting patterns.

Is that why he called FG 66 seats and got 49?

FrancieBrady · 29-01-2020 11:06AM

is_that_so wrote: »

He was a whole lot better than Yates will ever be. My memories of him are the on the day analysis, which was always good, especially in his knowledge of local voting patterns.

Yates got a whole lot closer in 2016'

Fine Gael on 51 seats; Fianna Fáil on 39; Sinn Féin on 29; Labour on 7

is_that_so · 29-01-2020 11:10AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yates got a whole lot closer in 2016'

Fine Gael on 51 seats; Fianna Fáil on 39; Sinn Féin on 29; Labour on 7

You seem to have missed the on the day thing. Well, I'll own up to thinking he's a complete spoofer whose ego has a whole room on its own. Never a fan of the man, especially as a TD.

is_that_so · 29-01-2020 11:11AM

easypazz wrote: »

Is that why he called FG 66 seats and got 49?

Hmm, on the day - analysis of the count! Garrett was very good too.

FrancieBrady · 29-01-2020 11:11AM

is_that_so wrote: »

You seem to have missed the on the day thing. Well, I'll own up to thinking he's a complete spoofer whose ego has a whole room on its own. Never a fan of the man, especially as a TD.

He's as good a pundit as any.

is_that_so · 29-01-2020 11:13AM

easypazz wrote: »

He was also a FF candidate at one stage. Means by default it is impossible to class him as "great"

My impression of him is based on what I thought of him as a pundit not issues with a party he once tried to represent.

is_that_so · 29-01-2020 11:14AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

He's as good a pundit as any.

I'll take your word for it. Find him utterly self-absorbed and insufferable.

easypazz · 29-01-2020 11:17AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Hmm, on the day - analysis of the count! Garrett was very good too.

Ok, so he is "great" for on the day predictions as the ballot boxes are open and each count is read out, narrowing the field each time.

But he is not "great" at making overall predictions the day before.
Have you.

FrancieBrady · 29-01-2020 11:23AM

Michael Martin should be in education. His facility at 'revision' is unparalleled!

He's on So'R at the moment.

Suckit · 29-01-2020 12:52PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Michael Martin should be in education. His facility at 'revision' is unparalleled!
He's on So'R at the moment.

Saying 'Sean' almost as much as yer wan from the swing.

FrancieBrady · 29-01-2020 12:56PM

Suckit wrote: »

Saying 'Sean' almost as much as yer wan from the swing.

Hilarious. When pressed on a Coalition with SF, he kept insisting he was 'setting out FF's position clearly, as was to be expected of any sincere party' but then obfuscated, weaseled and avoided saying what their position was on the 'pension age' for what must have been 5 minutes until O'Rourke(and this listener) gave up.

Faugheen · 29-01-2020 01:09PM

I like Yates’ predictions because I’m a real nerd for the geographical breakdowns and who it can benefit/impact. I don’t take them too seriously but they are something different to listen to rather than the parties all saying the same nonsense every day.

easypazz · 29-01-2020 01:17PM

Faugheen wrote: »

I like Yates’ predictions because I’m a real nerd for the geographical breakdowns and who it can benefit/impact. I don’t take them too seriously but they are something different to listen to rather than the parties all saying the same nonsense every day.

Paddy power are probably as good as you will get, I think its about 49 FF and 43 FG.

Any "great" pollster won't go too far wrong if they steal a prediction from paddy power.

Faugheen · 29-01-2020 01:26PM

easypazz wrote: »

Paddy power are probably as good as you will get, I think its about 49 FF and 43 FG.

Any "great" pollster won't go too far wrong if they steal a prediction from paddy power.

In fairness to Yates, he called Boxer Moran, Gino Kenny and Mick Barry in 2016 when the bookies had them as 8th or 9th in their odds. Mick Barry in particular was given no hope by the bookies.

It’s not just the predictions he makes, it’s the reasoning behind them which is what makes it interesting. He’s clearly not just going off by odds from the bookies.

At the moment, he has Imelda Munster (1/14 with the bookies) to lose her seat in Louth in expense of a 9/4 FF candidate.

gormdubhgorm · 29-01-2020 03:17PM

Faugheen wrote: »

In fairness to Yates, he called Boxer Moran, Gino Kenny and Mick Barry in 2016 when the bookies had them as 8th or 9th in their odds. Mick Barry in particular was given no hope by the bookies.

It’s not just the predictions he makes, it’s the reasoning behind them which is what makes it interesting. He’s clearly not just going off by odds from the bookies.

At the moment, he has Imelda Munster (1/14 with the bookies) to lose her seat in Louth in expense of a 9/4 FF candidate.

Yeah I remember the last election Yates seemed to have a great feel for what was going on the ground. Also is able to give insight to the listener about the reality of statements and behind the scenes stuff.

is_that_so · 29-01-2020 03:28PM

Faugheen wrote: »

In fairness to Yates, he called Boxer Moran, Gino Kenny and Mick Barry in 2016 when the bookies had them as 8th or 9th in their odds. Mick Barry in particular was given no hope by the bookies.

It’s not just the predictions he makes, it’s the reasoning behind them which is what makes it interesting. He’s clearly not just going off by odds from the bookies.

At the moment, he has Imelda Munster (1/14 with the bookies) to lose her seat in Louth in expense of a 9/4 FF candidate.

That would be the unknown councillor James Byrne. FF have no base in the south of the constituency and he's up against herself, Nash and O'Dowd. Hard to see him doing much better than their candidate in 2016.

General Election TV debates

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