General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

Arghus · 26-01-2020 12:30AM

Not voting is doubly self defeating if you don't do it on account of being fed with the status quo of politics.

A proportion of the population not voting actually suits the traditionally powerful parties.

They know they'll never have to do anything to please you if they never have to worry about you voting.

Parties and candidates don't try to represent everybody, they care about representing the people who do or could vote for them.

pixelburp · 26-01-2020 12:33AM

In a first past the post system, there's an argument to be made that a single vote can be worthless, especially in a constituency with large support for one party.

But proportional representation is explicitly created to give more power to your vote. For starters it's not one vote, it's a sequence of preferences and every single transfer can upend the count significantly. Not to mention our constituencies being multi seat as well, so smaller parties or independents often do well.

Don't partake if you don't want to, but I don't buy this idea of a vote being worthless. It is far more so than in the UK for one. And if you decide not to vote, then as far as I'm concerned you lose highground in complaining about the make up of society. Voter apathy is a godsend to every unpopular government ever created.

Sierra Oscar · 26-01-2020 12:34AM

markodaly wrote: »

Is this the Red C poll? Or the Daily Mail poll?

Red C. I haven’t seen any ‘Ireland Thinks’ figures yet. I’m skeptical of their polling though. They are new and untested and are very coy regarding the methodology that they use.

Grab All Association · 26-01-2020 12:35AM

No point here in Tipp
Lowry
Mattie
Kelly
Cahill
Don’t think Seamus Healy will get in. That fake Fine Gael TD who has been claiming credit for everything the past few years might take his seat.

TheSun wrote:

MEET Leo Varadkar’s man in Tipperary who looks, acts and talks like a TD — even though he has never received a single vote.
Garret Ahearn runs a constituency clinic — adorned with a bronze statue of hero Michael Collins — that was personally opened by the Taoiseach.
Garret Ahearn runs a constituency clinic personally opened by Varadkar and he drives a car adorned with his name, face and FG logo and talks directly to Ministers on behalf of constituents despite never being elected

So not only do we have fake news, fake doctors in the HSE, we also have fake TD’s

touts · 26-01-2020 12:45AM

charlie14 wrote: »

If they do lose this election I do not have te feeling Varadkar will go willingly.
If there is a challenge then that would create a lot of bad blood which could bring extra problems.

The ordinary members wanted Covney. The remaining TDs won't be too pleased with Varadkar and whatever remains of his brat pack for getting then into this mess. My bet is Leo will go willingly when he is faced with a messy battle which would damage his prospects of a plum EU job in a few years.

Jinglejangle69 · 26-01-2020 12:48AM

The brat pack??

Is this a thing here now??

26-01-2020 12:49AM

Arghus wrote: »

Not voting is doubly self defeating if you don't do it on account of being fed with the status quo of politics.

A proportion of the population not voting actually suits the traditionally powerful parties.

They know they'll never have to do anything to please you if they never have to worry about you voting.

Parties and candidates don't try to represent everybody, they care about representing the people who do or could vote for them.

They don’t care about representing anyone.

hotmail.com · 26-01-2020 12:54AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Would have expected Greens to be nearer double figures, but SF appear to have stolen their momentum - Soc Dems will be happy, even if local canvassing works better for them than national figures.

I felt the Green surge was exaggerated last year during the local and Europeans off a low turnout.

The Greens are not popular at all in rural areas and among the working class. It might surprise people here but many people in Ireland aren't aware of Greta and all that. They are a niche small party that will be hoping to get around 5 to 10 seats.

hotmail.com · 26-01-2020 12:57AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

FF 26 (+2)
FG 23 (-7)
SF 19 (+8)
Green 8 (+1)
Lab 4 (-2)
Soc Dem 3 (+1)
SolPBP 2 (n/c)
Aontu 1
Renua Nil (-1)
Ind 14 (-2)

The polls showing a trend - FF is slightly ahead of FG and Sinn Fein are making marked gains.

It's really unclear what the next government will be based on these figures.

Another confidence and supply?

The only logical government is for FF to join up with SF.

marno21 · 26-01-2020 12:58AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

The Greens are not popular at all in rural areas and among the working class. It might surprise people here but many people in Ireland aren't aware of Greta and all that. They are a niche small party that will be hoping to get around 5 to 10 seats.

It'll be interesting to see how some of their more radical rhetoric will change should they coalesce with Fianna Fail.

Cancelling motorway and road improvement schemes around the country to fund projects in cities, making life hard for farmers and further tax increases isn't going to go down well with many of FF's base

hotmail.com · 26-01-2020 01:02AM

marno21 wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see how some of their more radical rhetoric will change should they coalesce with Fianna Fail.

Cancelling motorway and road improvement schemes around the country to fund projects in cities, making life hard for farmers and further tax increases isn't going to go down well with many of FF's base

Yes and they've said today that they will introduce a law allowing cyclists to break red lights.

I can only imagine how the anti cyclist angry people will feel about that.

If FF get less than 60 seats, the Greens could become irrelevant. All eyes will be on SF to go into government. And I think they will.

Snow Garden · 26-01-2020 01:03AM

Coveney might be the white face that racist FG members crave but he is nowhere near as Capable as Leo. He would be found out in weeks. Simon achieved sweet fcuk all in Brexit. A non issue anyway.

These polls are interesting but we really dont know what will happen in terms of seats.

The vote for FFG will decline.

hotmail.com · 26-01-2020 01:07AM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Coveney might be the white face that racist FG members crave but he is nowhere near as Capable as Leo. He would be found out in weeks. Simon achieved sweet fcuk all in Brexit. A non issue anyway.

These polls are interesting but we really dont know what will happen in terms of seats.

The vote for FFG will decline.

Do you think there is widespread racism among FG members?

Leo is most the FG Taoiseach we've seen in a generation. I doubt any of their members are fussed about his father being Indian. They would be more annoyed if he was from Finglas tbh.

But yes if FGers think Coveney is an electoral winner... I doubt it. I'm not sure I've ever seen that man smile.

SafeSurfer · 26-01-2020 01:19AM

With both FF and FG committing not to enter coalition with SF the choice is between either FF or FG leading a government or SF.

That is the choice before the electorate. I would expect voters to drift towards FF in the last days of the campaign as this choice becomes clearer.

Also the motivation of voters seeking stability is greater than that of those who seek change.

Water John · 26-01-2020 01:25AM

Figures seem to confirm the last poll, Irish Times. Basically FG falling badly, SF up significantly and FF climbing gradually. Not sure what FG can do to reverse this trend.

SafeSurfer · 26-01-2020 01:34AM

SF are only running one candidate here and he is likely to be re elected as a sitting TD. Again major internal rows in the party at a local level and a dismal performance in the last locals.

Billcarson · 26-01-2020 01:38AM

Go on the shinners. An awakening hopefully is happening finally ,many people are tired of fg and ff and rightly so . Why not give sf a chance is my opinion. Of course at the end of the day the election itself will see what the outcome is.........

FrancieBrady · 26-01-2020 01:42AM

We are about to see how actually averse FF are to a deal with SF.
I think Martin has been given rope by the party, but the electorate are seemingly saying something else.
Can Martin hold grass root FF seems to be the coming issue.

van_beano · 26-01-2020 01:45AM

NIMAN wrote: »

They didn't need to 'deregister' though, they could just have stopped voting.

Same end result.

By deregistering though meant I’m not included in any CSO statistics of having a vote and not using it. In theory I’m helping the State in providing more accurate statistics.

In all seriousness though, who could you vote for? The country moves on the exact same way regardless who’s in Government. As I stated earlier - it’s all a charade.

The numbers in the Dail are far too many anyways, half the number to 80 would be enough.

Water John · 26-01-2020 01:55AM

It will come down to numbers of TDs. FF might go in with SF, but MM won't be its leader.

Where do people think FF will end up? Will they get anywhere near 60? Then you have genepool and willing Inds, 6/8. On those figures Greens may have 10/12.
A few more gets MM over the line. A radical social housing policy and some health initiatives brings Lb and Soc Dems into play.

Sierra Oscar · 26-01-2020 01:57AM

Ireland Thinks results are floating around now.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1221235415081988097

FrancieBrady · 26-01-2020 02:01AM

Water John wrote: »

It will come down to numbers of TDs. FF might go in with SF, but MM won't be its leader.

Where do people think FF will end up? Will they get anywhere near 60? Then you have genepool and willing Inds, 6/8. On those figures Greens may have 10/12.
A few more gets MM over the line. A radical social housing policy and some health initiatives brings Lb and Soc Dems into play.

Martin has such a silken tongue I can hear him now, twittering on about 'the national interest' and 'having sincerely considered' etc etc going into a deal with SF.

SafeSurfer · 26-01-2020 02:02AM

Water John wrote: »

It will come down to numbers of TDs. FF might go in with SF, but MM won't be its leader.

Where do people think FF will end up? Will they get anywhere near 60? Then you have genepool and willing Inds, 6/8. On those figures Greens may have 10/12.
A few more gets MM over the line. A radical social housing policy and some health initiatives brings Lb and Soc Dems into play.

What FF leader could persuade FF supporters that coalition with SF is in the national interest or the party’s interest? Answer. None.

SafeSurfer · 26-01-2020 02:04AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Martin has such a silken tongue I can hear him now, twittering on about 'the national interest' and 'having sincerely considered' etc etc going into a deal with SF.

A deal is one thing. Maybe a confidence and supply arrangement. But FF and SF are not going to be in government together after the election.
A FG/SF coalition would be more likely.

Good loser · 26-01-2020 02:05AM

I expect there will be more than 1 GE in 2020.

26-01-2020 02:06AM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Coveney might be the white face that racist FG members crave but he is nowhere near as Capable as Leo. He would be found out in weeks. Simon achieved sweet fcuk all in Brexit. A non issue anyway.

These polls are interesting but we really dont know what will happen in terms of seats.

The vote for FFG will decline.

Simon achieved sweet fcuk all in Brexit.

Really? FG have been poor on many fronts, but Coveney on Brexit...

Sierra Oscar · 26-01-2020 02:12AM

SafeSurfer wrote: »

A deal is one thing. Maybe a confidence and supply arrangement. But FF and SF are not going to be in government together after the election.
A FG/SF coalition would be more likely.

Fianna Fáil members are more likely to ratify a Sinn Féin coalition rather than a Fine Gael one. It'll have to receive support of the members at an Ard Fheis vote.

The only way I see Fianna Fáil working with Fine Gael is through a confidence and supply arrangement.

I reckon you're right saying that a Fine Gael / Sinn Féin coalition is a more likely scenario.

Water John · 26-01-2020 02:13AM

No chance IWT of MM going with SF. A number of his TDs and many in the party would have no problem with it. The numbers I wouldn't know. A decade in opposition makes any potential minister very itchy.

Absolute zero chance of FG going into Govn't with SF. It would be totally abhorrent to FG supporters. Mind you they did join with Democratic Left in the day.

cameramonkey · 26-01-2020 02:14AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Fianna Fáil members are more likely to ratify a Sinn Féin coalition rather than a Fine Gael one. It'll have to receive support of the members at an Ard Fheis vote.

The only way I see Fianna Fáil working with Fine Gael is through a confidence and supply arrangement.

On those percentages they might not have the numbers.

Geuze · 26-01-2020 02:23AM

To not vote is an abdication of your responsibility as a citizen.

Christ, we fought long and hard for the right to vote.

Everybody should vote.

There are so many candidates, there's bound to be somebody you half like.

Please engage with democracy and vote.

If you don't, please don't complain afterwards

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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