Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

12526283031193

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭Rodin


    is_that_so wrote: »
    They are not about equality, even where they are used it's under for 50% women. They are a tried and tested method of redressing the gender imbalance in politics.

    What about the ethnic imbalance?
    The religious imbalance?
    The sexuality imbalance?
    The transgender imbalance.
    The traveller imbalance?
    The refugee imbalane?
    The old imbalance? The young imbalance?
    The disability imbalance? How many TDs have a disability compared to the prevelance in society?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,591 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    KevRossi wrote: »
    SF have nowhere near 20% in any election in the ROI, so they don't have that mandate. In the last elections in each category they got:

    9.5% in 2019 Locals
    11.9% in 2019 Europeans
    6.4% in 2018 Presidential
    13.8% in 2016 General Election

    The poster's arrogant instructions were for SF who are an all island party.

    I estimated support across the island at 20%. May be right or may be wrong, a few percent doesn't change the point. Which is 'feck off with the condescending arrogant rubbish', has the poster learnt nothing from Charlie's roasting?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    KevRossi wrote: »
    SF have nowhere near 20% in any election in the ROI, so they don't have that mandate. In the last elections in each category they got:

    9.5% in 2019 Locals
    11.9% in 2019 Europeans
    6.4% in 2018 Presidential
    13.8% in 2016 General Election


    Dublin west by-election 2019 SF 24%.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,371 ✭✭✭Phoebas


    Dublin west by-election 2019 SF 24%.

    The house two doors up from me - SF 66.66%


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Phoebas wrote: »
    The house two doors up from me - SF 66.66%


    Could you explain the point you are attempting to make.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,229 ✭✭✭robman60


    Could you explain the point you are attempting to make.

    Demonstrating that one by-election is not necessarily indicative of their national performance.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Donegal looks like 2 FF, 2 SF, 1 FG, but Pringle could yet knock out Pat the Cope:

    Doherty (SF) 27%
    McHugh (FG) 17%
    McConalogue (FF) 12%
    McLochlainn (SF) 12%
    Gallagher (FF) 10%
    Pringle (Ind) 6%
    O'Donnell (Ind) 4%
    Whyte (Green) 4%
    Sweeney (Aontú) 3%
    Harley (FG) 3%
    Casey (Ind) 2%
    McConnell (Ind) 1%

    https://tuairisc.ie/doherty-agus-mchugh-slan-agus-gan-ach-2-ag-peter-casey-pobalbhreith-tg4/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    robman60 wrote: »
    Demonstrating that one by-election is not necessarily indicative of their national performance.


    No one said it was, I was pointing out that SF had gotten over 20% in an election, the post I was replying to said they had never achieved 20% in any election.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,832 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    On those figures, if SF rein in Doherty a bit, 2 seats are likely.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Water John wrote: »
    On those figures, if SF rein in Doherty a bit, 2 seats are likely.



    Last time out Pringle was elected on 8.6% and Joe McHugh on 11.5.MacLochlainn lost out in the end having started on 7.8%.So if he is on 12% plus his share of transfers from Docherty's huge vote it a sure thing for 2 SF seats. i think MacLochlainn is a really strong operator way above most of the other SF TDs.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,591 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Last time out Pringle was elected on 8.6% and Joe McHugh on 11.5.MacLochlainn lost out by about 200 votes in the end having started on 7.8%.So if he is on 12% plus his share of transfers from Docherty's huge vote it a sure thing for 2 SF seats. i think MacLochlainn is a really strong operator way above most of the other SF TDs.

    I think they simply messed up last time managing the vote.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    I am surprised by the SF numbers in these polls, they really seemed to be on a downward slope but suddenly they are back up again having really changed anything. I expect they will not achieve in the elections the high numbers in these polls.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    I think they simply messed up last time managing the vote.


    I think so but the numbers were considerably less than what the polls are saying today. Even if the vote manage badly with these figures they will romp home. FF, Labour and FG wil be worried. Expect all out attack from FF/FG and Labour to try cuddle up to SF to attract some transfers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    I think they simply messed up last time managing the vote.
    Oh yes they did! They ran three candidates!:o


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    I think so but the numbers were considerably less than what the polls are saying today. Even if the vote manage badly with these figures they will romp home. FF, Labour and FG wil be worried. Expect all out attack from FF/FG and Labour to try cuddle up to SF to attract some transfers.
    You will see differences in party support in individual constituencies. Doherty is riding a wave so no surprise there. They will get two without trying.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Water John wrote: »
    On those figures, if SF rein in Doherty a bit, 2 seats are likely.


    I forgot that, the other SF guy got about 5% so they would have scraped home at least without him.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,591 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Oh yes they did! They ran three candidates!:o

    Not just that, I think there was an issue with were the candidate's base vote was as well.
    I remember the analysts talking about it at the time.
    In an interview today with RTɒs Radio na Gaeltachta, Mr Doherty conceded Mr Mac Lochlainn might have had better chance had the party not followed the three-candidate strategy.

    “We have to ask ourselves questions about what we should do for the next election, can we divide up the county better, to manage the vote better,” he said.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,914 ✭✭✭Rigor Mortis


    Those are terrible numbers for FF. Down from 31 to 22. They may well hold the second seat but that is not indicative of the kind of numbers that the Sunday Times were thinking of. If FF are dropping in a Connacht Ulster constituency, this is going to be a very close contest.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,903 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    SF are obviously hoping for a bounce from stormont being reopened and all this talk of a UI


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Those are terrible numbers for FF. Down from 31 to 22. They may well hold the second seat but that is not indicative of the kind of numbers that the Sunday Times were thinking of. If FF are dropping in a Connacht Ulster constituency, this is going to be a very close contest.

    If anything that poll makes the second FF seat look vulnerable.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,779 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Even with a potentially rising FF vote (and that poll isn't that much higher than 2016) there are FF seats in danger. They are unlikely to retain both in Kildare North also.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    L1011 wrote: »
    Even with a potentially rising FF vote (and that poll isn't that much higher than 2016) there are FF seats in danger. They are unlikely to retain both in Kildare North also.

    As it transpires, their Donegal vote would be lower than 2016, according to the poll.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    Just watching Primetime there. The devastation FG and their FF partners have caused across society is astonishing, its not just housing and health, its childcare, transport, education, planning, disability services, criminal justice... Quality of life for a significant portion of the population has plummeted because of austerity and a radical right wing ideology that seems determined to transfer as much wealth into private hands as possible.

    We desperately need a change of direction. Tweedledum replacing tweedledee wont do it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 339 ✭✭IAmTheReign


    FG announced plans for a rural rehousing scheme. Claim they'll sell state owned land in rural communities at cost for people to build on. Could be a good idea, all depends on if the plots of land are in towns and villages people want to live in though.

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/families-will-have-opportunity-to-buy-bargain-housing-plots-to-ease-crisis-38890987.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,649 ✭✭✭Whelo79


    I'd like to see SF get in for this promise to cut TD and senator salaries and pensions alone.

    The article provides a lot of information and has costings re scraping USC under €30k and returning pension age to 65, all fully costed by the Department of Finance.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    droidus wrote: »
    Just watching Primetime there. The devastation FG and their FF partners have caused across society is astonishing, its not just housing and health, its childcare, transport, education, planning, disability services, criminal justice... Quality of life for a significant portion of the population has plummeted because of austerity and a radical right wing ideology that seems determined to transfer as much wealth into private hands as possible.

    We desperately need a change of direction. Tweedledum replacing tweedledee wont do it.
    I admire your optimism that there is an alternative in the rest to fix everything. Fighting talk does not get much of anything done and for parties who've spent their entire existence in opposition to everything they'd quickly learn how the rarefied air of government changes all they imagined they could do.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,903 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Today is the beginning of the give away

    Looking forward to seeing how flathúlach FG and FF

    Also very interested in SF idea for a publicly funded childcare system


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Rodin wrote: »
    What about the ethnic imbalance?
    The religious imbalance?
    The sexuality imbalance?
    The transgender imbalance.
    The traveller imbalance?
    The refugee imbalance?
    The old imbalance? The young imbalance?
    The disability imbalance? How many TDs have a disability compared to the prevalence in society?
    They are societal concerns and I'd suggest you care even less for these than the quota in question. The quota rules are not nor should be mandatory but State funding is contingent on it and parties do get votes from it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    is_that_so wrote: »
    I admire your optimism that there is an alternative in the rest to fix everything. Fighting talk does not get much of anything done and for parties who've spent their entire existence in opposition to everything they'd quickly learn how the rarefied air of government changes all they imagined they could do.

    The fact that FF could bankrupt the country in an unprecedented orgy of greed, arrogance and bad planning and FG could implement a series of extreme right wing economic policies suggests that radical change is possible.

    I don't think anyone has all the solutions, but pulling us back from the brink would be a start. There's another recession coming, it's going to be big and we're in a worse state than we were last time. When the economic impacts of the climate catastrophe hit on top of that it's going to be chaos. We need a Government whose first concern isn't always the welfare of developers, landlords, banks, corporations and their friends in the golf club.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,277 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Whelo79 wrote: »
    I'd like to see SF get in for this promise to cut TD and senator salaries and pensions alone.

    The article provides a lot of information and has costings re scraping USC under €30k and returning pension age to 65, all fully costed by the Department of Finance.

    TD pay at 95k is not high.

    Accountants in Dublin earn more.


Advertisement