General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

is_that_so · 22-01-2020 01:41PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

John Waters has joined up with Gemma O'Doherty, and is running in Dún Laoghaire:

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1219949089825214464

The Owl and the Pussycat went to sea..

Rjd2 · 22-01-2020 01:52PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I note that the odds for Longford-Westmeath have James Reynolds of the National Party at 6/1 - are there that many far-right voters in the Midlands? Granted, that leaves him seventh in a four-seat constituency, but still eye-opening!

I'd hope not,,,but I am hoping its nothing more than his mates having a few bets which is shortening the odds,,it doesn't make much money for bookies to run for the hills when it comes to politics betting.

blackwhite · 22-01-2020 01:54PM

Current Paddy Power predictions of 1st Preference share (based on over-under points)

FF 28.5%
FG 24.5%
SF 14.5%
GP 7.5%
LAB 6.5%

No odds on offer via the App for IND share of the vote, or any smaller parties

Be interesting to see if they amend these over the next week or two, and whether they release any polling data at some point

Larbre34 · 22-01-2020 02:10PM

blackwhite wrote: »

Current Paddy Power predictions of 1st Preference share (based on over-under points)

FF 28.5%
FG 24.5%
SF 14.5%
GP 7.5%
LAB 6.5%

No odds on offer via the App for IND share of the vote, or any smaller parties

Be interesting to see if they amend these over the next week or two, and whether they release any polling data at some point

They don't release the models behind their other betting, so I wouldn't hold your breath.

Larbre34 · 22-01-2020 02:12PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

are there that many far-right voters in the Midlands?

Quite possibly. Are there enough of them concentrated in one constituency to get him elected? - unlikely. He will certainly be transfer toxic.

L1011 · 22-01-2020 02:25PM

Tommy Broughan standing down at the last minute. O'Riordain will need to make sure he doesn't feel home and dry yet with all the non runners (Power also, who transferred 1700 to Broughan)

Phoebas · 22-01-2020 02:28PM

L1011 wrote: »

Tommy Broughan standing down at the last minute. O'Riordain will need to make sure he doesn't feel home and dry yet with all the non runners (Power also, who transferred 1700 to Broughan)

That has to favour O'Riordain substantially - it was his transfers that pushed Broughan over the top in 2016.

hotmail.com · 22-01-2020 02:30PM

L1011 wrote: »

Tommy Broughan standing down at the last minute. O'Riordain will need to make sure he doesn't feel home and dry yet with all the non runners (Power also, who transferred 1700 to Broughan)

Catherine Noone and Aodhan are absolutely desperate to get into the Dail. Career politicians with little to offer.

One of them will be elected.

blackwhite · 22-01-2020 02:34PM

Larbre34 wrote: »

They don't release the models behind their other betting, so I wouldn't hold your breath.

They’ve released opinion polls in the past though - which aren’t quite the same as their internal models

Their seat projections and constituency levels polls are the stuff they’ll be more protective of

hotmail.com · 22-01-2020 02:35PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

John Waters has joined up with Gemma O'Doherty, and is running in Dún Laoghaire:

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1219949089825214464

Christ almighty.

sid waddell · 22-01-2020 02:41PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Catherine Noone and Aodhan are absolutely desperate to get into the Dail. Career politicians with little to offer.

One of them will be elected.

Most politicians are career politicians and it's as valid a career as any other, arguably much more valid as done right, politics does make a real difference to people's lives.

The point is whether politicians actually want to make a positive difference to people's lives. Plenty are in it primarily for themselves, but plenty do want to make a real difference and I actually think the two you mentioned do.

O'Riordain was the most enlightened drugs minister this country has had. I'm no fan of FG and wouldn't vote for her but Noone has already done society and the state some valuable service with her excellent and persuasive handling of the 8th Amendment issue as Oireachtas Committee chairperson.

Let's just say that the record of those who come later to politics and find themselves in any sort of position of power is not good, as we see in the US at the moment.

hotmail.com · 22-01-2020 02:49PM

sid waddell wrote: »

Most politicians are career politicians and it's as valid a career as any other, arguably much more valid as done right, politics does make a real difference to people's lives.

The point is whether politicians actually want to make a positive difference to people's lives. Plenty are in it primarily for themselves, but plenty do want to make a real difference and I actually think the two you mentioned do.

O'Riordain was the most enlightened drugs minister this country has had. I'm no fan of FG and wouldn't vote for her but Noone has already done society and the state some valuable service with her excellent and persuasive handling of the 8th Amendment issue as Oireachtas Committee chairperson.

Let's just say that the record of those who come later to politics and find themselves in any sort of position of power is not good, as we see in the US at the moment.

All I have to go on is what Aodhan did while he was a junior minister. And he did nothing. No changes on drugs. The situation has got worse.

Aodhan's response last week was the government should set up a Drugs Task Force. That was his wonderful insight.

So it's not like he's a new politician that is starting out. He's been in government and didn't do anything.

hotmail.com · 22-01-2020 02:52PM

And not to mention laughably campaigning in favour of the abolition of the Seanad, only to become a member of it a couple of years later. This is why I say career politician.

BonnieSituation · 22-01-2020 03:00PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

And not to mention laughably campaigning in favour of the abolition of the Seanad, only to become a member of it a couple of years later. This is why I say career politician.

So you think he should have cast stones from the sidelines instead of seeking influence by being a member of one of the organs of State?

The Seanad still exists, so it should be used to exact change where possible.
Even if it has a tendency to be used as a rehab for failed TDs.

sid waddell · 22-01-2020 03:04PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

All I have to go on is what Aodhan did while he was a junior minister. And he did nothing. No changes on drugs. The situation has got worse.

So it's not like he's a new politician that is starting out. He's been in government and didn't do anything.

I don't think that's true at all.

He was in the job for ten months. In those ten months he began the legislative process which led to the National Drugs Strategy and consistently pushed for a Portugal-style decriminalisation model and supervised injecting centres, the first of which is about to open I think.

The wheels of progress turn slowly, you can't just click your fingers with complicated issues and make things better overnight, that's nature of politics and of life and sadly few people seem to understand that.

BonnieSituation · 22-01-2020 03:06PM

sid waddell wrote: »

I don't think that's true at all.

He was in the job for ten months. In those ten months he began the legislative process which led to the National Drugs Strategy and consistently pushed for a Portugal-style decriminalisation model and supervised injecting centres, the first of which is about to open I think.

The wheels of progress turn slowly, you can't just click your fingers with complicated issues and make things better overnight, that's nature of politics and of life and sadly few people seem to understand that.

One of my friends is an advisor in the DofH and pretty much everything you say is true above.

His biggest issue with aodhan was that he was a little TOO idealistic meaning some compromise wasn't as easily forthcoming when trying to sell his ideas to the older fogies. Though that would have been knocked out of him over time if he was there a bit longer.

Dyr · 22-01-2020 03:12PM

sid waddell wrote: »

I don't think that's true at all.

He was in the job for ten months. In those ten months he began the legislative process which led to the National Drugs Strategy and consistently pushed for a Portugal-style decriminalisation model and supervised injecting centres, the first of which is about to open I think.

The wheels of progress turn slowly, you can't just click your fingers with complicated issues and make things better overnight, that's nature of politics and of life and sadly few people seem to understand that.

Good enough reason not to want him near government then

is_that_so · 22-01-2020 03:15PM

Bambi wrote: »

Good enough reason not to want him near government then

Labour will be wooed so brace yourself!

sid waddell · 22-01-2020 03:17PM

Bambi wrote: »

Good enough reason not to want him near government then

Somebody who strongly advocates for evidence-based policies which are proven to work elsewhere and are transferrable is exactly the sort of person people should want in government.

I'll take them over somebody who offers simplistic populist soundbytes any day, thanks.

Faugheen · 22-01-2020 03:35PM

sid waddell wrote: »

Somebody who strongly advocates for evidence-based policies which are proven to work elsewhere and are transferrable is exactly the sort of person people should want in government.

I'll take them over somebody who offers simplistic populist soundbytes any day, thanks.

This. Aodhán is one of the good ones.

mgn · 22-01-2020 04:05PM

sid waddell wrote: »

Somebody who strongly advocates for evidence-based policies which are proven to work elsewhere and are transferrable is exactly the sort of person people should want in government.

I'll take them over somebody who offers simplistic populist soundbytes any day, thanks.

Like objecting to planning permission for hundreds of houses and apartments in his area in the middle of a housing crisis, was this not done to get him votes in this election,

keane2097 · 22-01-2020 04:14PM

markodaly wrote: »

I welcome SF's change in relation to the SCC, long time coming. However, their populist approach to the state pension is red flag to anyone with sense.
FF's and FG's appraoch on the latter is more mature.
Then again, if the voters lap up SF's policy, then we only have ourselves to blame with it all comes crashing down.

FG's approach seems to be identical to SF's, except that FG are calling the state pension you get between 65 & 67 a 'transition payment' instead of a 'pension payment'. Actually setting up the bureaucracy around this definitely-not-a-pension payment would probably be more expensive than just giving the pension at 65.

FF's original plan was the only sensible one.

is_that_so · 22-01-2020 04:15PM

mgn wrote: »

Like objecting to planning permission for hundreds of houses and apartments in his area in the middle of a housing crisis, was this not done to get him votes in this election,

Is this the Coolock village thing?

is_that_so · 22-01-2020 04:18PM

keane2097 wrote: »

FG's approach seems to be identical to SF's, except that FG are calling the state pension you get between 65 & 67 a 'transition payment' instead of a 'pension payment'. Actually setting up the bureaucracy around this definitely-not-a-pension payment would probably be more expensive than just giving the pension at 65.

FF's original plan was the only sensible one.

Is this the defer the change, review(interminably), see what way the wind blows and do nothing plan?

jos28 · 22-01-2020 04:29PM

No, it was plans to build houses in St Anne's Park

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/residents-gear-up-for-battle-over-new-plans-to-develop-lands-near-dublins-st-annes-park-38697014.html

is_that_so · 22-01-2020 04:33PM

jos28 wrote: »

No, it was plans to build houses in St Anne's Park

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/residents-gear-up-for-battle-over-new-plans-to-develop-lands-near-dublins-st-annes-park-38697014.html

Ah that NIMBYism, not even St Anne's Park, land previously owned by the brothers.

mgn · 22-01-2020 04:33PM

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/labour-government-minister-aodhan-o-riordain-objects-to-plan-for-dublin-development-384208.html

sid waddell · 22-01-2020 04:59PM

mgn wrote: »

Like objecting to planning permission for hundreds of houses and apartments in his area in the middle of a housing crisis, was this not done to get him votes in this election,

Pretty much every local representative is against that development.

A quick Google shows that Sean Haughey, Denise Mitchell, Finian McGrath and numerous councillors across all parties are against it.

The land may be privately owned but to all practical intents and purposes the proposed development site is part of St Anne's Park.

I mean, should we build on the Phoenix Park too, or ay other park in Dublin? It's actually a serious question, I can see why someone might put forward such an argument, but I don't necessarily agree with it.

Seems the developer was chancing their arm too as regards the application having previously been told it would not be accepted.

I'm not saying the arguments are all one way but it's entirely legitimate for people to object to such a development and it seems to me those who are doing so more in the right than in the wrong.

But I suppose instead of people familiarising themselves with the facts of the case it's easier to just shout meaningless, populist soundbytes like "NIMBY" at one particular representative.

is_that_so · 22-01-2020 05:06PM

sid waddell wrote: »

Pretty much every local representative is against that development.

A quick Google shows that Sean Haughey, Denise Mitchell, Finian McGrath and numerous councillors across all parties are against it.

The land may be privately owned but to all practical intents and purposes the proposed development site is part of St Anne's Park.

I mean, should we build on the Phoenix Park too, or ay other park in Dublin? It's actually a serious question, I can see why someone might put forward such an argument, but I don't necessarily agree with it.

Seems the developer was chancing their arm too as regards the application having previously been told it would not be accepted.

I'm not saying the arguments are all one way but it's entirely legitimate for people to object to such a development and it seems to me those who are doing so more in the right than in the wrong.

But I suppose instead of people familiarising themselves with the facts of the case it's easier to just shout meaningless, populist soundbytes like "NIMBY" at one particular representative.

Local people got rid of the very ecological and handy composting facility in St Annes year ago through objections because of the "smell" so yeah I'll call NIMBY on them.

Rigor Mortis · 22-01-2020 05:24PM

jos28 wrote: »

No, it was plans to build houses in St Anne's Park

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/residents-gear-up-for-battle-over-new-plans-to-develop-lands-near-dublins-st-annes-park-38697014.html

He's objected to other developments too

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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